E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSS
Jason Reed / REUTERS
President Barack Obama gives a thumbs up as he participates in a campaign rally in Lima, Ohio, Nov. 2, 2012.
Three days until Election Day, President Barack Obama maintains his lead in the key battleground state of Ohio and is locked in a close contest with Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in Florida, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
In Ohio, Obama holds a six-point advantage over Romney among likely voters, 51 percent to 45 percent, which is unchanged from last month’s poll in the Buckeye State.
And in Florida, the president gets support from 49 percent of likely voters, while his GOP challenger gets 47 percent. Those numbers are virtually identical to the ones from October, when it was Obama 48 percent, Romney 47 percent.
Both states are two of the biggest prizes in Tuesday’s presidential contest. An Obama victory in Ohio, which awards 18 electoral votes, would put him tantalizingly close to getting to the 270 electoral votes needed to win a second term.
President Barack Obama campaigns in Lima, Ohio as he rallies supporters in key states just before the election.
But an Obama loss in the Buckeye State – and a Romney win – would place a hole in the president’s Midwest firewall.
Meanwhile, Florida, which awards 29 electoral votes, is a must-win state for Romney. A Republican loss there would push Obama past 270 electoral votes – even if the president lost every other battleground state in NBC’s current map.
Obama ahead with early voters
As with the recent NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Iowa and Wisconsin, Obama is benefitting from early voters in Ohio and Florida.
In the Sunshine State, 63 percent say they have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day, and Obama is winning them, 53 percent to 46 percent. But Romney is ahead among Election Day voters in Florida, 52 percent to 40 percent.
In Ohio, 35 percent say they have already voted or plan to do so, and Obama is leading them, 62 percent to 36 percent. Yet Romney is up among Election Day voters in the Buckeye State, 52 percent to 42 percent.
Strong approval for the president’s handling of Sandy
The polls were conducted after Hurricane Sandy slammed into the East Coast, and seven in 10 likely voters in Florida and Ohio approve of the president’s job in handling the hurricane and its aftermath.
“The response was overwhelmingly positive, and that was occurring across party lines,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.
On handling the economy
Meanwhile, Romney has a slight advantage over Obama in Florida when it comes to which candidate would better handle the economy – 48 percent pick Romney and 46 percent back Obama.
GOP candidate Mitt Romney speaks to supporters in Chester, Ohio as he campaigns in key swing states ahead of the election.
But those numbers are reversed in Ohio, where 48 percent believe Obama would better handle the economy and 46 percent side with Romney.
On party ID
In these surveys, Democrats enjoy a nine-point party-identification advantage in Ohio and a two-point edge in Florida. Republicans have argued that a nine-point advantage is too large in this current political environment; it was eight points in the Buckeye State during Obama’s decisive 2008 victory.
If you cut that party ID advantage in half, Obama’s six-point lead in Ohio is reduced to three points.
Other numbers in the poll
Obama’s job-approval rating among likely voters stands at 48 percent in Florida and 50 percent in Ohio.
Reuters, Getty Images
In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.
In Ohio’s Senate contest, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Josh Mandel by five points among likely voters, 50 percent to 45 percent.
And in Florida’s Senate contest, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson leads Republican Connie Mack by nine, 52 percent to 43 percent.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Florida was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1 of 1,545 likely voters, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.5 percentage points.
And the survey of Ohio was conducted Oct. 31-Nov.1 of 971 likely voters, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.
Leave a Comment:
the President will win Nevada easily...
First off, this concert has NOTHING to do with helping the East Coast people. They are there ONLY because they are all democrats, and they are stumping for Obama! They could care less about the hurricane victims!
I am SO tired of Democratic musicians. I used to pay my hard earned money, to hear a musician play his songs. Now I have to sit through a damn speech on how they suddenly are an expert on political views, and how you should vote. I am going to laugh SO hard when Romney is moving Obama's @!$%# out of the White House!!! By the way, they don't call it the "White House" for nothing!!!!!!!!!!!!!
what's the EV total if the President wins Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Florida?
Who cares? Won't happen.
Truth........??? That hurts, coming from a Romnesian. You've saddled up with the biggest flip-flopper in the history of politics.
Obama supporters have 'saddled up' with an anti-American socialist who wants to turn the US into a third world country. How can you vote for a man without researching his marxist and 'anti-colonialism' beliefs?
anti-colonialism? lol, what the heck are you talking about?
Flip-flopney.......supports Richard MourDICK. Nuff said
Have you ever heard that old saying that people that live in a glass house shouldn't throw stones?
Remember Biden's statements in the debate where he said he never voted for the Iraq and Afghan wars, Respects a woman's right to choose ,etc?
Biden voted for both the Iraq and Afghan Wars and argued for invading Iraq.
Biden voted to overturn Row vs Wade in 1982.
Biden Voted in 1999 and 2003 to bar Partial Birth abortions.
Biden is against Federal Money to pay for Abortions.
Biden Voted for the Defense of Marriage act.
Biden Voted for Don't ask Don't Tell.
It is Florida all over again. Rick Scott is busy helping suppress the votes. The long lines and the ten-page ballot papers are horrendous. People are waiting in lines for hours without a chance to cast their ballots, yet the governor refuses to extend the voting hours. Republicans are desperately trying to win the white house by any means necessary.
Maybe the "early voters" who waited too long to vote early, should go vote on "ELECTION DAY"!!!!!!!!!!!!
If most of the voters have already voted like MSNBC tells us, the lines will be very short.
Will union teachers who already voted, still get election day off??
Why will liquor stores be closed on election day?????
When you're down to vote suppression as a tactic, maybe it's time to rethink the platform?
Voter suppression as a tactic, is just one of many excuses MSNBC is pushing to stir up riots in the streets when Obama loses.
jailbird, on election night, it will be the same thing: long lines and a ten-page ballot to deal with. Polls will be closed without people casting their ballots. Charlie Chris, a GOP governor, extended early voting hours. How come skin head Rick Scott cannot do the same thing?
I'd ask what Flopney's position is on China, however.....multiple choice mitt??? does it really matter what comes out of his mouth>?< Mr. Irrelevant
Romney already stated he would declare China a Currency Manipulator which would free the U.S. to put sanctions and tariffs on imports etc from China.
Obama has had four years he could have done it and hasn't.
If Romney is elected then we will see if he follows through.
We Know Obama cowers before China and Russia. Obama refused to meet with the Dalhi Lama from fear of upsetting China until public pressure forced his hand. "Tell Putin I'll have more "flexibility" after the election". China and Russia Blocking U.S. efforts at the U.N. against Syria, etc.
You believe anything Romney says? What did he say yesterday? What will he say tomorrow? What would he do after being elected? Your guess is as good as mine because he doesn't tell us the truth; he tells each audience what he thinks they need to hear to vote for him. The man is a liar and he hasn't a clue about what it takes to be president.
Noah....... RICK SANTORUM dubbed Flip Flopney, ETCH-A-SKETCH ????? Santorum says
" IF ROMNEY IS OUT PARTY'S NOMINEE, YOU MIGHT AS WELL VOTE FOR OBAMA "
When I wan't Rick Santorum's opinion I'll ask for it.
Would you like me to bring up what Hillary Clinton said about Obama during their primary campaigns?
"Who would you want taking that crisis call at 3AM?"
Should we ask Ambassador Stevens and the 3 other Americans that were needlessly killed in Benghazi?
Romney has shown us all he's not ready for the 3am phone call. Heck, he'd probably drop the phone out the window...
nevada aka low-information voter
Nevada is a troll, do not feed.
dnftt
He has already found my ignore list
If the race is deadlocked, then Romney will probably win Florida, given that its criminal governor has done everything in his power to rig the election.
Noah.....your problem is when you preface your comments with
"romney already stated".
the american people clearly understand your boy has a big time credibility problem. what he 'states' TODAY will CHANGE tomorrow. precisely WHY flip flopney has NO chance.
We should believe Obama is any different?
You act as if your politician is better than the other guy.
http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/08/flashback-obamaryan-exchange-foreshadows-current-132202.html
Do as I say not as I do?
http://geekpolitics.com/obama-on-raising-the-debt-ceiling/
When Obama fought for the dept limit increase in 2011 its not a failure in leadership, passing the buck burdening our children, a threat to our national security, etc.?
Can you say $16 Trillion? Almost $6 trillion added in just four years. Double what Bush added in 8 years.
The good people of Florida are going to realize that Romney is bad for the economy, bad for the ecology, bad for foreign policy, bad for women, bad for seniors, bad for minorities, bad for office. A vote for Romney is a vote for .... who knows what because he can't be tied down to one opinion on anything and he refuses to give any specificity to economic plans because he knows he will alienate the voters his "plans" negatively impact. Which loopholes will he cut and do you depend on them?
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012!
Floridian here - Don't try to speak for us. we know Obama is a miserable failure. Even all our retired Americans understand taking 716 billion out of medicare has caused their co-pays to be extremely higher than before Obamacare.
This evening I mentioned a few up coming Obama / EPA & dept of transportation regulations I had read about. They agreed these regulations would hurt their jobs & income - they then said "must be all Romney friends". I knew this person was not real bright, but how wrong can you be & still vote for Obama?
Never mind. . . .
I am Born and Raised in Florida. Coconut Grove to be precise. Willard Romney is fooling noone with his act.
Anyone voting for Romney/Ryan 'from Florida' has no stake in Florida, and probably thinks Rick Scott is the Best Governor EVER in Florida.
You must own a company that benefits from reduced pollution controls or use of cheap imported labor.
Nuff Said.
Romney is losing in Ryan's home state and 3 out 4 of his own
watching....... what you're saying is Flip has ZERO credibility. For this reason alone, he will be REJECTED.
Watch how Romney goes into November 6th with 47% nationally. He has not been able to shake that number. It has been hanging over his head like a "bad omen". God doesn't like it when you despise his little children simply because they are poor. Romney is going to get schooled by an American electorate tired of being trampled upon by those who think they are better simply because they have more money. But what good is it to win the world (money) and lose your soul (conscience)?
47% bwahahahahaha
Obama hasn't been able to get above his 47 or 48 percent of supporters. No poll has considered the 2010 election when republicans gained more seats, top down, than anytime in history. Do you Obama supporters really believe those anti-Obama voters have decided to sit out this election? The anti-Obama sentiment is alive and well and you will be surprised at the results of this election even more than you were surprised during the 2010 election.
Mid-terms aren't the same
phil - considering the republican turnout in 2010, do you really believe we have decided to sit back and not participate in a presidential election? Do you really think we have not been working to register voters who have not voted before? Do you really think we have not been more motivated than ever to get Romney elected rather than the miserable failure named Obama?
pango, we'll see how you do with Democrats and Independents voting too
Romney doesn't even seem like a good salesman...
Sorry Phil, Obama is a a MArxist who would just as soon allow the Muslim Brotherhood run this country as himself. He has sold us down he river and is running gins in the Middle East. That is why he doesn't want the Benghazi story out. The Re-elect Obama hallelujah chorus media is in bed with him as they won't report what's happening and when they do, it's with the libtard twist.
"Duuuuuh, Marxthist, daaaaaah Muthlim blutherhood, dooooooh Bengathi, Bengathi, uuuuuh." Freakin' morons!
Why would I vote for a former governor who left office with a 60% disapproval rating and who is getting beaten by 15% in his home state? I'm sticking with the sure thing: President Obama, with two sure hands on the wheel.
On the wheel driving us into bankruptcy.
Voter suppression has awaken a sleeping giant!
The young latino voters coupled with the old civil rights population....awesome!
The republicans didn't see it coming :)
Well, as long as its only in Ohio...
Nevada, time for you to come out of the closet.
You're a bigot aren't you?
Phil,
Romney and Obama are also tied in Virgina and Colorado. Obama has a slight lead in Iowa, his lead in Nevada and Wisconsin is just outside of the margin of error (1 to 5% out of depending on the poll, around 2% to 3.5% more on average though).
However in Virginia there are some signs pointing that it could go blue for this election, currently Nate Silver has VA going to Obama 67% of the time, 33% of the time to Romney.
Here are the aggregates from 538 for VA:
Ipsos (online)
11/2
48.0
45.0
Obama +3.0
Ipsos (online)
11/1
49.0
44.0
Obama +5.0
We Ask America
11/1
48.5
47.6
Obama +0.9
Ipsos (online)
10/31
48.0
46.0
Obama +2.0
PPP
10/31
49.0
46.0
Obama +3.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac
10/28
49.0
47.0
Obama +2.0
Gravis Marketing
10/26
48.0
48.0
Tie
The Washington Post
10/26
51.0
47.0
Obama +4.0
Roanoke College
10/26
44.0
49.0
Romney +5.0
Purple Strategies
10/25
47.0
47.0
Tie
PPP
10/24
51.0
46.0
Obama +5.0
Fox News
10/24
44.0
46.0
Romney +2.0
Rasmussen
10/24
48.0
50.0
Romney +2.0
Mellman
10/21
46.0
45.0
Obama +1.0
Wenzel Strategies
10/20
47.0
49.0
Romney +2.0
PPP
10/19
49.0
47.0
Obama +2.0
CallFire
10/18
46.0
48.0
Romney +2.0
Rasmussen
10/18
47.0
50.0
Romney +3.0
Old Dominion
10/17
50.0
43.0
Obama +7.0
PPP
10/16
49.0
48.0
Obama +1.0
Pulse Opinion Research
10/15
47.0
46.0
Obama +1.0
American Research Group
10/14
47.0
48.0
Romney +1.0
YouGov
10/11
46.0
45.0
Obama +1.0
Rasmussen
10/11
47.0
49.0
Romney +2.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac
10/9
51.0
46.0
Obama +5.0
McLaughlin
10/9
44.0
51.0
Romney +7.0
NBC/Marist
10/9
47.0
48.0
Romney +1.0
Pulse Opinion Research
10/8
48.0
48.0
Tie
PPP *
10/7
48.0
44.0
Obama +4.0
Rasmussen
10/4
48.0
49.0
Romney +1.0
We Ask America
10/4
45.0
48.0
Romney +3.0
Pulse Opinion Research
10/1
48.0
47.0
Obama +1.0
NBC/Marist
10/1
48.0
46.0
Obama +2.0
Roanoke College
9/28
47.0
39.0
Obama +8.0
American Research Group
9/27
49.0
47.0
Obama +2.0
Suffolk *
9/26
46.0
44.0
Obama +2.0
PPP
9/19
49.0
43.0
Obama +6.0
Purple Strategies
9/19
46.0
43.0
Obama +3.0
Fox News
9/18
50.0
43.0
Obama +7.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac
9/17
50.0
46.0
Obama +4.0
We Ask America *
9/17
48.5
45.7
Obama +2.8
PPP *
9/16
49.0
45.0
Obama +4.0
The Washington Post *
9/16
49.0
41.0
Obama +8.0
YouGov
9/14
48.0
44.0
Obama +4.0
Rasmussen
9/13
49.0
48.0
Obama +1.0
Marist
9/11
49.0
44.0
Obama +5.0
Gravis Marketing *
9/9
43.1
48.3
Romney +5.3
Rasmussen
8/23
47.0
47.0
Tie
PPP
8/19
50.0
45.0
Obama +5.0
Purple Strategies
8/14
45.0
48.0
Romney +3.0
Rasmussen
8/7
48.0
46.0
Obama +2.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac
8/6
49.0
45.0
Obama +4.0
Gravis Marketing
7/31
44.2
39.6
Obama +4.6
Rasmussen
7/17
47.0
46.0
Obama +1.0
Quinnipiac
7/16
44.0
44.0
Tie
Purple Strategies
7/13
46.0
44.0
Obama +2.0
PPP
7/8
50.0
42.0
Obama +8.0
We Ask America
6/25
43.3
48.0
Romney +4.7
Old Dominion
6/15
49.0
42.0
Obama +7.0
Purple Strategies
6/5
49.0
45.0
Obama +4.0
Quinnipiac
6/4
47.0
42.0
Obama +5.0
Rasmussen
6/3
47.0
47.0
Tie
NBC/Marist
5/20
48.0
44.0
Obama +4.0
The Washington Post
5/2
51.0
44.0
Obama +7.0
PPP
4/29
51.0
43.0
Obama +8.0
Rasmussen
4/23
44.0
45.0
Romney +1.0
Purple Strategies
4/23
48.0
46.0
Obama +2.0
Roanoke College
4/5
41.0
46.0
Romney +5.0
Rasmussen
3/20
51.0
42.0
Obama +9.0
Quinnipiac
3/18
50.0
42.0
Obama +8.0
NBC/Marist
3/2
52.0
35.0
Obama +17.0
Roanoke College
2/26
42.0
43.0
Romney +1.0
Rasmussen
2/21
49.0
43.0
Obama +6.0
Christopher Newport
2/13
43.0
46.0
Romney +3.0
Quinnipiac
2/6
47.0
43.0
Obama +4.0
Mason-Dixon
1/18
45.0
44.0
Obama +1.0
Quinnipiac
12/19
42.0
44.0
Romney +2.0
PPP
12/13
48.0
42.0
Obama +6.0
Geo, everything is breaking to the President in the last part of this election
Geo - Yawn. Polls are weighted far too much democrat just like the 2010 election. Why was everyone so shocked that republicans won more seats (top down) than at anytime in history?
Pango,
It was because the Tea Party lied to get elected. Many ran on platforms of bipartisanship and when they got in all they did was complain about Obama. Walker, who ran on that same platform, tried to bust the Unions as soon as he sat down. Union busting was no where in his stump speeches nor platform.
Kasich tried to do the same thing but got bitch slapped by the people of Ohio.
Looks like they ran out of rehash retorts, Geowil!
How funny Flip Flopney is calling HIMSELF the candidate of "REAL CHANGE". Really??? There's a news flash!!!
It's the ONLY thing the American people believe when it comes to Etch-a-Sketch.
You wouldn't vote for a liar if he were running for Town Council, yet Flip has the balls to ask you to elect him POTUS?????
Democrat
38
40
36
38
Republican
29
29
31
28
Independent
32
Skewed dems by 9. Obama is toast
or the state leans +9 democrat now. I love how no one ever considers that at all when talking about how skewed certain polls are.
There is no law that says that 2010 turn out numbers have to apply to this election, you just assume that they do.
You honestly believe the 2010 election has no bearing on this election? Those who voted more republicans into office than in any time in history have not decided to sit out this election. They have been busy for the last two years making sure even more people will vote in this election.
Wow pango, all that work(and $) for nothing...
The Romney ads at work in Ohio. I bet Romney wishes he never cut those ads now.
Bet he wishes he never wrote "Let Detroit go bankrupt" either
Letting Detroit go through a restructuring bankruptcy would have meant that GM wasn't wanting another bail-out now.
Geowil;
Talk to all the "non-union" DELPHI employees who lost their jobs. The DELPHI non-union, well funded pension was absorbed by the under funded union pension fund. Why were profitable "republican" dealerships closed down, turning loose high numbers of employees? Why does the UAW own so much of GM & previous investors were shafted?
A managed bankruptcy like Romney wanted would have treated everyone "fairly".
nevada.....you're a genius, a real piece of work,
Hi, my name is HoosYerDaddy...AKA...Michelle "I've never been proud to be an American" Romney. I approve this message!!!
The REPUBLICAN poster child for conservatism, Rick Santorum, said it BEST...
" if Romney is going to be the nominee of our party, you might as well just vote for Obama"
Which god?