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President Obama stands to lose as many as 340,000 votes as a result of Hurricane Sandy, not enough to affect the outcome in heavily Democratic Northeastern states, but something that could make a difference in the popular vote if the results of Tuesday’s presidential race are as close as polls indicate, a First Read analysis finds.
“Sandy has the potential to reduce Obama's national popular vote share by depressing turnout in highly Democratic areas along the Eastern Seaboard,” Dr. Michael McDonald of George Mason University, who studies turnout, told First Read. “The storm is unlikely to change the Electoral College outcome, as Obama is heavily favored to win the affected states. A turnout drop could be the difference in a close national election, and thus could shape the political discourse over important policy issues in a possible Obama second term.”
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For example, assuming 2008 vote totals and a 15 percent reduction in turnout in the coastal counties most affected by Hurricane Sandy in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, Obama would lose a net of 340,000 votes, including 247,000 out of New York, 60,000 from New Jersey, 29,000 from Connecticut, and 3,600 from Rhode Island.
Officials in states hit by Hurricane Sandy are now deciding how to hold an election next Tuesday in communities where residents have been displaced and there's still no power. NBC's Tom Curry discusses.
Officially, four times in American history has a candidate become president while losing the popular vote -- John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and George W. Bush in 2000. (Some political scientists believe it’s actually five, and that John F. Kennedy lost the popular vote in 1960.) Most recently, the country was divided in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote by 540,000, but lost the Electoral College narrowly because of 537 votes in Florida.
It would be even more accurate to dive into individual precincts, but here’s a rough a county-by-county breakdown:
New York: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -247,000
New York – Obama -86,000, Romney -14,000, Net: Obama -72,000
Queens – Obama -72,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -49,000
Kings – Obama -91,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -68,000
Bronx – Obama -51,000, Romney -6,000, Net: Obama -45,000
Richmond – Obama -12,000, Romney -13,000, Net: Romney -1,000
Nassau – Obama -51,000, Romney -43,000, Net: Obama -8,000
Suffolk – Obama -52,000, Romney -46,000, Net: Obama -6,000
New Jersey: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -60,000
Bergen – Obama -34,000, Romney -28,000, Net: Obama -6,000
Hudson – Obama -23,000, Romney -8,000, Net: Obama -15,000
Union – Obama -21,000, Romney -12,000, Net: Obama -9,000
Essex – Obama -36,000, Romney -11,000, Net: Obama -25,000
Middlesex – Obama -29,000, Romney -19,000, Net: Obama -10,000
Monmouth –Obama -22,000, Romney -24,000, Net: Romney -2,000
Ocean – Obama -16,500, Romney, -24,000, Net: Romney -7,500
Atlantic – Obama -10,200, Romney -7,500, Net: Obama -2,700
Cape May – Obama -3,500, Romney -4,000, Net: Romney -500
Connecticut: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -29,000
Fairfield – Obama -36,000, Romney -25,000, Net: Obama -9,000
New Haven – Obama -35,000, Romney -22,000, Net: Obama -13,000
Middlesex – Obama -8,000, Romney -5,000, Net: Obama -3,000
New London – Obama -11,000, Romney -7,000, Net: Obama -4,000
Rhode Island: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -3,600
Washington – Obama -6,000, Romney -4,000, Net: Obama -2,000
Newport – Obama -4,000, Romney -2,400, Net: Obama -1,600
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fZgQhnNRSuw
UNINSTALLING OBAMA..... ████████████████▒ 99% complete
Victims of Sandy who were uninsured and unprepared and expecting the government to make it all better will, of course, vote for Obama.
Those who were prepared and insured and realize that bailouts must be paid by ALL of us should be more likely to go for Romney.
That pretty much sums up the race.
UNINSTALLING OBAMA..... ████████████████▒ 99% complete
The End is near Democrats, the crazy-twisted love affair with BO is over Tuesday! He couldn't even win with the Liberal media in the tank for him at every step. Never in history has the media been so blind to the point of being criminal.
NBC = National BarackCasting Network
UNINSTALLING OBAMA..... ████████████████▒ 99% complete
You go Obama! Us ILLEGALS are counting on you!
Obama/Biden 2012
Even if Obama gets elected, he is not going to have the majority to get it passed the way you are hoping. He could have and should have done it two years ago, but he really didn't care about your vote then. Now he wants your vote, but can't deliver. Oh, wait a minute you can't vote unless you do it ILLEGALLY.
Well, the right wingers are crawling out of the woodwork, aren't they? By the way, Laura, the only vote fraud this year was done by the right, but you knew that, right? Obama had a Senate majority for about 2-1/2 months, by the way - try to stick to facts.
i think mitt will win the popular vote, but lose the electoral..
That's the ultimate nightmare scenario. If that happens the Repubs will be uncontrollable and we may have very real, very serious talk about seccession. I'm not kidding. This could actually happen.
if obama gets re-elected, i am all for secession.......this country will be ruined...
Sweet then us Democrats can mow them down :)
Frigging whiny leaches anyways
Just remember it was the Republicans who won the Civil War and freed the slaves.
That was a different Republican Party. Do a little reading.
Yeah, the country will be ruined. Delusional much? How come this awful guy hasn't destroyed the country yet? I mean, if he loses the election, he won't get his chance, will he? Unbelievable. If we could survive Bush II, we can handle just about anything. And as bad as Bush was, he wasn't even the worst; I'd invite you to read a little American history, but that looks futile. If you get the nerve, try starting with President Pierce.
As far as the popular vs. electoral vote, I suggest you folks try reading a little history. I know it was a long time ago, but try the 2000 election.
The Northeast states most effected by the storms devestation, are already in the bag for Obama.
NY (31) NJ (15) Conn (7) RI (4) and Ma (12) total = 69 electoral votes for Obama, regardless of turnout.
There are too many working class, educated, intelligent people living in these states to vote for Mutt.
Its the redneck, less educated areas that might go Republican. Alabama (9) Mississippi (6) Florida (27) total = 42 electorals. And Florida really isn't in the bag for Rob-me yet. BUT, remember, Florida F-ked it up before!
educated and intelligent people will not vote for the asswipe obama...are you kidding?...only idiots and freeloaders support him.....feck obama!!!
Freeloaders? Republicans in the south are voting for Obama? Who knew?
About privatizing disaster relief. I think Christie is pretty darned glad to have the federal government standing there right now. Maybe FEMA does coordinate the response, as TalktotheHand says ... but who is going to? The state who just had a disaster? The one with no power, no transportation, no gas, no food, no water? Get real ... there are some things that government needs to do.
I think we are going in the right direction with Obama. I'm Republican ... but the people who represent us in government these days are not Republicans. Romney lost me with his flat out constant lying - the man is incapable of telling the truth, and his attitude that he is "destined" to be President - it is absolutely his to demand. But he tipping point is his refusal to answer a single press question in these last weeks .. not one. He's an idiot and we don't need him in charge. If Moderate Mitt had shown up to the dance, I could have done it - but not this guy. It won't be a Romney/Ryan plan. It's Ryan all the way ... Ryan was chosen for him, not the other way around. And for all of Paul Ryan's laments about the cost of government, he's done nothing but eat at that trough for most of his adult life. He is the biggest hypocrit of all. I'm not worried about my country .... I WANT MY PARTY BACK!
Oh yeah, you're a Republican... Your name says it all...
UNINSTALLING OBAMA..... ████████████████▒ 99% complete
Yes, there are Republicans in Seattle .... just like there are Democrats in Texas. But you are right - I would have to say I am independent because I do my research, I make up my own mind, and I do vote across party lines. Because I care about the country, not what some pundit on either side is trying to convince me to do. I just want the hating to stop ... that will ruin this country more than anything else. The absolute intolerance and hatred for someone's point of view.
Rrrrriiiigggghhhhttt.
no other american president has ever bowed to a saudi king, no other american president has ever spoken so highly of a "religious" cult that worships murder.
this man is insane.....it's one thing to accept the cultures of the world and it's another to reward islam as if they have been so good to this nation.
i don't think mitt romney is the best choice but i refuse to re elect someone who idolizes islam.
voting for obama is anti american... don't believe me, do your research....
Yes ... Bin Laden was certainly "rewarded". LOL, reading some of these posts is quite amusing.
you are so blind it's pathetic.... How about you EDUCATE yourself on what this man you call the "leader of our nation" has said in his own words..have fun with your beloved president for the next 4 years....I'm sure this will be a better America then....
Duckie, you might want to backtrack a little. Making up stuff and pretending things haven't happened won't change reality.
Presidents observe protocol, and if that means bowing to a foreign leader, so be it. Look up Eisenhower...or Nixon; your lying about it won't change it. Why, Bush II even kissed Arab leaders, but that's probably different, right? And fantasizing about Obama idolizing Islam does not make it true. Anti-American is attacking somebody for their religion, even if it is not really their religion that you are attacking. We are supposed to be a nation of tolerance; try doing some reading to find out why people came here in the first place.
Foolish people do foolish things...like vote for Romney.
Stupid people vote for Stupid people to be in office, like vote for Obama who loves Islam more than this country.
What about Bush? He LOVED the Saudi's .... I believe he even held the prince's hand? Major religion in Saudi Arabia ... Islam. Religion isn't the problem - it's the extremists that are the problem. Whether you are Christian, Jewish, Islam .. whatever ... your religion isn't the problem -your extremism is.
So...what are you going to do about it DUCKIE when Obama wins...because he is going to win! I suggest you reach across the aisle and shake hands so this country can move forward. Share the love and spread joy. You will be a happier person when you let go of some of the anger. It does nothing for you.
DUCKIE just makes stuff up...I hope it makes him feel better. He is going to feel really bad Wednesday morning, though.
sailor girl i have a son over there right now a chief in the navy and they were the first ones obama threatend to not pay when he tried to get the loan limet raised and all the seniors who the goverment robed every mo for years forceing them to pay in to s.s. and medicare while the democrats robbed the s.s. account used it for there own personel bank yes it was the dem. and Obama is supose to be a dem. (OBAMA) (one big ass mistake for america)If all the obama lovers that cant see what he has done to america in less than 4 years had better open there eyes as he will put us under in another 4 years.
Your post says it all...You need Obama so you will have the opportunity to brush up on your spelling skills and educate yourself on the facts.
earle, try actually looking something up before posting nonsense. I have to doubt the veracity of your claim to have a son, much less one serving, when you make up so much else in your post. Know who came up with the automatic defense cuts? Do you? Republicans. Know who voted for it? Your boy Ryan. Know who is lying about robbing SS? You are.
Try facts...they will serve you better.
All this worry about who wins the election. In the unlikely event Obama wins, he will be impeached because of Libya, Fast and Furious and whatever else the Repubs can think of. Benghazi is bad enough to get him removed from office. That'll leave Biden a lame duck the Repubs can walk over. But don't sweat it Romney's got this. Obama's history.
My alter ego needs to be wearing a tin foil hat I see LOL.
george (lower case one)...delusional much? Fast and Furious? Issa tried, couldn't come up with anything. Benghazi? The facts don't bear you, and the rest of the right wing, out (but it does show that you folks are actually more concerned with using those deaths against Obama than mourning the actual deaths).
But you are right about one thing: "...whatever else the Repubs can thing of.". Issa will probably try and try again, but it will merely result in wasting time and money that could be better used. The Republicans care far more about party and politics than they do our country.
You mean its sandys fault not not Bushs fault. lol
Then again his excellent response to this horrific tragedy may garner him the same number of votes from undecided voters in the swing states that really matter. Romney very well could pull this off, but the aggregate polling looks pretty good for President Obama at this point in time. The Romney campaign would change places with the Obama campaign in a heartbeat in terms of how the electoral college path is looking. All the blustering by any one person on the internet is not going to change that.
The tragic deaths of our Ambassador to Libya, and his associates, is something we all regret and feel deeply about. All of them good people, taken far to early in life, while performing their duties in the service of the United States. Let us remember them in our prayers.
However, I don't understand Fox News going 24 /7 in trying to find a smoking gun. All this, in an attempt to implicate President Obama. While I'm sure the President bears some blame, FOX seems to have overblown this tragedy, and have embarked on a crusade. It reminds me of the same approach Fox News took in trying to make something out of the relationship President Obama had with Rev. Wright and William Ayres. Knowing people and being in their company is one thing, but trying to prove some seditious relationship is another.
To me, it's deja vue all over again!
!!!...obama is supposed to be the feckin' commander in chief........he is ultimately responsible.......
So you admit Bush is responsible for 9/11 and Reagan for the bombing of the barracks in Lebanon? And there is a ton more where those come from...
Obama promised that he would cut through the red tape to get help to the people affected by Sandy.
The definition of "red tape" is big government. So Obama is really saying he knows that processes and laws his administration is responsible for is causing delays in getting people help.
Romney will reduce the government overhead (red-tape) Obama has created.
Sandy is a perfect (though a very unfortunate example) of why Obama (and his belief that big government is better) should be voted out.
Really weak. I mean, SUPREMELY. Can't you do better?
By the way, you should write to Christie and tell him not to ask Obama for anything and that if he asks for help from that big, bad government he is a failure and should resign.
have no fear displaced liberal zombie oboma sheep.just vote in philadelphia.trust me just call up and one of the brothers or sisters will be glad to vote several times for you.everyone jokes about chicago being corrupt,thats kid stuff.we do it union style in philly
Consider getting your G.E.D. It will pay off for you in the long run.
Noecon foxzombies and Limbots will be crying and whining next week no matter what.
Yeah, I wonder what the excuses will be after the election? Romney was too conservative, Romney tried to appear too moderate in the last two weeks, Romney played it too safe in the last two debates, he should have released his tax forms, his 47% comment ruined him, he refused to give an interview in the last three weeks, he kept changing his position on issues ... the right will eviscerate this guy molecule by molecule after the election.
We MIGHT be crying next week, but you all will be crying after another 4 years of dumb & dumber
GeorgeB.....the country will come together after Obama is sent packing....the divider in chief will be on his way to Chicago...maybe he can get a job as a community aggatator....
Romney/Ryan
It doesn't matter.
R/R have offended blacks, gays, latinoes and women to the point that 300,000 votes fewer for Obama is meaningless.
@1funnygirl
You know the liberals are hurting because they have resorted to name calling. Attacking your picture, which I think looks very nice, is very sad on their part. I am sure your self esteem is not so low you need compliments from strangers, but, I think you look great and find your commentary quite entertaining.
Yeah, 'cause the right wingers on here, funny included, NEVER resort to name calling or personal attacks (learn to use the REPLY link, by the way). I wasn't impressed by the picture thing, but going off with this superiority thing is laughable.
Well at least they got they Obama phone!!!!
RFFN!!!
Obama is the best man for the job. Hands down and it's not even close! Don't you people understand that being president is the HARDEST job in the world? Obama has been for ALL PEOPLE from the start - EVERYTHING can't and won't happen over night. The things he is puting into place won't be reconized until 5 - or 10 years down the road. If you repuclicans want to blast and blame somebody I suggest that you turn your aim at the congress memebers who have voted NO to %80 of bills that President Obama has put before them. They have wanted hip out of office since the exact day that he was sworn in back in 2008. You should be ashamed of yourselves for some of the things your party has said about Gov. Christie working WITH Obama. That my friends is watching reaching out to the other party is called.
Do you want a guy that is being charged by the faderal government along with his wife? Do you support the Jeep ads that continue to be shown even after their companies CEOs have said they aren't true?
If you want us to take you seriously - learn to spell and form correct sentences
Hey liesdon'tcutit....your right....lies...don't...cut..it....so stop with the damn lies...Obama has-not passed a budget in 4 freaking years....Obama to the congress....I won....It's my way or the highway....you can sit in the back of the bus...Yep....lies don't cut it...
Change, no comment on dixie's post vis a vis spelling, etc.
dixie, try sticking with factual information, grammar or not.
Obama was expected to carry NJ & NY...so this story is invalid....Romney will be the next POTUS...everyone is tired of the sos.....
Romney/Ryan
Since you didn't read it, how can you express an opinion? The point was that, although it would not affect the election outcome, it could affect the popular vote. That could have an affect on Obama's ability to work with Republicans his second term. Now go back and read it.
I think President Obama is more concerned about the walfare of the people in the N.Y. and N.J. area than about the votes! The president will still win!
Romney: None and Done!
4 more days 4 44
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UNINSTALLING OBAMA..... ████████████████▒ 99.9% complete
The storm is going to cost Obama more than you think. He made a photo op and left the scene. As people are screaming "Where is the Aid", who do you think they will blame.... Bush?. Help arrives, but is turned away because the volunteers were not "UNION" workers. If you want to get America back on track, do away with the unions and manufacturing will return, do away with Attorneys, and Medical costs will fall drastically, and do away with Obama and his freebies, and the illegals will go home where they belong.
OIC, Thomas, so even though Christie, a Republican, said it was a good thing you know better. Sure.
And instead they will vote for the fraud Romney...talk about photo ops. And the lies about the union stuff has been shot down already, but keep spouting the lies so everyone can see what you are.
Your rant is baseless and factless. What a suprise.
..........that quoted vote loss (300,000) for Obama is way too small - try in the millions!!......
Obama will lose hundreds of thousands more votes than that....the folks on Staten Island are livid that Obama and his FEMA group are not providing any support. Let alone the other 3.1 million voters in NJ that are still without power....that will translate to blame Obama. Right or wrong, he's the captain of this ship right now and he is failing his fellow Americans. Pennsylvania is also hard hit which could translate to Obama backlash for his lack of involvement in this recovery. This is the 4th worst disaster in US history and King Obama is off campaigning!! You'd think Michelle would be up in NY to provide some presence in the noted absence of Obana but she is too busy planning her next multi-million dollar vacation to India along with ther 37 attendents. She needs your vote to maintain her lavish lifestyle....tell Barack you're in and send him some money so he can live large...very large!!