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President Obama stands to lose as many as 340,000 votes as a result of Hurricane Sandy, not enough to affect the outcome in heavily Democratic Northeastern states, but something that could make a difference in the popular vote if the results of Tuesday’s presidential race are as close as polls indicate, a First Read analysis finds.
“Sandy has the potential to reduce Obama's national popular vote share by depressing turnout in highly Democratic areas along the Eastern Seaboard,” Dr. Michael McDonald of George Mason University, who studies turnout, told First Read. “The storm is unlikely to change the Electoral College outcome, as Obama is heavily favored to win the affected states. A turnout drop could be the difference in a close national election, and thus could shape the political discourse over important policy issues in a possible Obama second term.”
Recommended: Romney tries to crack Obama's Midwest firewall in Wisconsin
For example, assuming 2008 vote totals and a 15 percent reduction in turnout in the coastal counties most affected by Hurricane Sandy in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, Obama would lose a net of 340,000 votes, including 247,000 out of New York, 60,000 from New Jersey, 29,000 from Connecticut, and 3,600 from Rhode Island.
Officials in states hit by Hurricane Sandy are now deciding how to hold an election next Tuesday in communities where residents have been displaced and there's still no power. NBC's Tom Curry discusses.
Officially, four times in American history has a candidate become president while losing the popular vote -- John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and George W. Bush in 2000. (Some political scientists believe it’s actually five, and that John F. Kennedy lost the popular vote in 1960.) Most recently, the country was divided in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote by 540,000, but lost the Electoral College narrowly because of 537 votes in Florida.
It would be even more accurate to dive into individual precincts, but here’s a rough a county-by-county breakdown:
New York: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -247,000
New York – Obama -86,000, Romney -14,000, Net: Obama -72,000
Queens – Obama -72,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -49,000
Kings – Obama -91,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -68,000
Bronx – Obama -51,000, Romney -6,000, Net: Obama -45,000
Richmond – Obama -12,000, Romney -13,000, Net: Romney -1,000
Nassau – Obama -51,000, Romney -43,000, Net: Obama -8,000
Suffolk – Obama -52,000, Romney -46,000, Net: Obama -6,000
New Jersey: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -60,000
Bergen – Obama -34,000, Romney -28,000, Net: Obama -6,000
Hudson – Obama -23,000, Romney -8,000, Net: Obama -15,000
Union – Obama -21,000, Romney -12,000, Net: Obama -9,000
Essex – Obama -36,000, Romney -11,000, Net: Obama -25,000
Middlesex – Obama -29,000, Romney -19,000, Net: Obama -10,000
Monmouth –Obama -22,000, Romney -24,000, Net: Romney -2,000
Ocean – Obama -16,500, Romney, -24,000, Net: Romney -7,500
Atlantic – Obama -10,200, Romney -7,500, Net: Obama -2,700
Cape May – Obama -3,500, Romney -4,000, Net: Romney -500
Connecticut: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -29,000
Fairfield – Obama -36,000, Romney -25,000, Net: Obama -9,000
New Haven – Obama -35,000, Romney -22,000, Net: Obama -13,000
Middlesex – Obama -8,000, Romney -5,000, Net: Obama -3,000
New London – Obama -11,000, Romney -7,000, Net: Obama -4,000
Rhode Island: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -3,600
Washington – Obama -6,000, Romney -4,000, Net: Obama -2,000
Newport – Obama -4,000, Romney -2,400, Net: Obama -1,600
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The (Perfect Storm) sandy will not be the reason obama loses, obama will be defeated because of his failures, so don't kid your self. The biggest reason is the economic situation that obama has failed to improve, next to that you have a couple of other reasons to kick him out of office, too many regulations & restrictions that are purposely designed to stunt job growth, too many lies that have told to the American voters, and the cover ups, #1 is the fast & furious cover-up & # 2 is the attack on Bengahzi that obama is still lying about. Obama lied and Americans died.
Can you give us some examples of these "regualtions & restrictions" that I hear so much about from the right wing talking point crowd? Particularly those "purposely designed to stunt job growth" (yeah, because a guy wanting to win a second term would try to hurt employment numbers...geez)? And some of those "lies" as well. Can you note these lies about Benghazi that Obama is "still lying about"? Are they remotely close to the lies about Iraq? Or those that led to the deaths of 3,000 at the WTC?
By the way, how do you feel about Romney lying about the car companies, especially his lies about the bailouts and, lately, about Jeep moving production to China? Is that what you want from our president? Apparently so.
You're missing a county in Connecticut .... where's Litchfield County?
Anyone else see how Obama is speeding up disaster help?
By removing all the red tape, regulations, & other barriers democrats have put in the way for business.
Tell that to the dumpster divers and thirsty hungry NY'ers it's only what O.B. and his networks want you to see just like the Unemployment jobless rates and Benghazi,08's voting fraud ect. . .smoke and mirrors
Something very wrong with estimating precinct by precinct the number of votes you expect them to lose due to the storm; it implies the votes are already in the bag without being given. It also assumes who's not going to vote and who is. There are too many variables to make any such assumptions about who loses how many where due to a weather reason
Chris, yeah I was reading a story about the science of elections. How they estimate if you are a republican or Democrat by your zip code and they come up with "Exit Poll" Numbers.
I think every election board needs to make sure that voting machines are available for everyone even if they are on a National Guard Truck like I heard something about this morning. Mobile voting for the victims so everyone has the opportunity to exercise their right to vote.
Not only that, they don't appear to account for early voting which typically has more Democrat voters vs. Election-day voting which has a strong Republican turnout. Some of those negative votes on the Obama side may have already been cast before Sandy. It's really just a complete guess.
That would be a travesty if Sandy prevented people from voting....Period.
Doesn't matter Get out and Vote!!!
Vote Obama/Biden 2012! Protect Women's and Worker's Rights!
Vote Straight Democrat!! Enc The blockade of our Nations Recovery by the Republican Congress!
"Vote Straight Democrat!!!" - Spoken like a TRUE Imperialist!
UNINSTALLING OBAMA..... ████████████████▒ 99.9% complete
Not a chance,I love my freedom,and don't want The Muslium Brotherhood running the country,do you people want a Middle East right here on our soil ? That's what your gonna get with the current Administration,anytime O can't get the votes for policies he forces it thru no matter what the American people want,he has done it for the last 4,I and my family and nebourghood are done with his dope and change.
Yes, get out and vote.
Vote Romney/Ryan! Protect everyone's rights including women's, minority's, and worker's!
Wheeee! Muslim Brotherhood!
If you don't have facts on your side, just make crap up and toss it around.
Hey, SuperSport, how is voting straight Democratic Party "imperialist? Do you even know what that word means? Apparently not.
Anilof, how would voting for Romney actually protect the rights of those you listed? Not paying any attention, or just a right wing hack?
4 More Days
Benghazi Gate (President lies, 4 dead Americans, you tube internet video protest, Obama goes off campaigning, missing in action commander-in-chief, denied security for our Ambassador). Please Lord no more 4 p.m. calls for this administration. Hurricane Sandy President Obama has everything under control, tries to look presidential (save face) by returning to the White House Situation Room and Jersey Shore for a photo opportunity. Meanwhile the situation on the ground grows critical (wolf packs, no gas, food, misery) while Obama goes of campaigning once again. Gaffing Vice President Joe Biden, Fast and Furious (Guns to Mexicans, dead Mexicans and border agents), al Qaeda resurging around the world, terrorism, fiscal cliff, high unemployment (7.9%, promised 5.2%, 23-million unemployed/underemployed), little economic growth, 16-trillion dollar national debt (promised to cut in half), high gas prices, war on coal, war on women, Solyndra bankruptcy, no shovel ready jobs, free Obama phones, GM bailout (rescued with tax payers dollars), promised transparency, class warfare, the great divider, European Socialism, and Obamacare. We can't afford another four years of Obama.
the POTUS losing votes in the Northeast because people can't vote?
Well this should make the right wing win at all cost, lie, cheat, voter fraud, voter suppression bunch very Happy...
Nobody wants voter suppression anymore than we want fraud,Romney is the one who sued to allow that our military's votes be counted,If you can't show a ID how does one drive get a job,buy smokes or drink,what if the PoPo ask for ID? Is that racist ? I'm so sick of the race card,I wanted Cain at one time and he has more black than OB,Ive been married to someone of a different race and yet cuz I don't drink the O Koolaid. . .who is the real racists here ?
i see horses of all different colors and non have an issue with the other because of it.. but men who are suppose to be able to rationalize... wait until the latinos are the majority... then who'll be pulling the race card? lol... everything comes back in the end......
Ster, your arguments, as usual, are weak. It is not a basic right to smoke or drink. You also do not need to drive, let alone smoke or drink, to vote. One also does not need a job that might require an ID in order to vote. What photo ID did Jefferson present when he voted? Or Lincoln? Did Grant have to show his driving license?
And I'll bite...why did you want Cain (or is that just convenient...)? He was a joke as a candidate, and he knew it...why didn't you?
What planet is this Domenico Montanaro from anyways? So the democrats are the ONLY ONES that won't turn out to vote as a result of the hurricane? This sounds P R E T T Y S T U P I D to anyone not brain dead. If there's a 15% depressed voter turnout (magic numbers, like magic underwear?) it will affect BOTH parties pretty much the same. This article has no factual basis, period.
Oh, now I get it. It'll cost Obama 300,000 votes. And Romney 27. ALL TWENTY SEVEN of them.
Montanaro is just another Obama SHILL "Story Teller" from NBC.
If you scroll down the article, it has a county-by-county estimate of votes that could be lost by Obama and by Romney. These are all heavily blue states, so Obama could lose more votes. It would not be "pretty much the same" unless it was a tight race in a swing state.
I do wonder if early voting has been taken into account though. It won't affect the election results, other than the popular vote. If Romney wins the popular vote and loses the election, it would provide some nice karma from 2000.
NBC keeps coming out with these articles swaying negative for Obama and I am sick of it. I think they want to keep having talking points or something. If they had just held Romney's feet to the fire and Ryan's and called them on all the lies they are telling, we would not see any more of these nonsense articles like this one. The first line states that not enough to affect the outcome...why even write this drivel? More and more disappointed with 'unbiased' NBC.
NBC = National BarackCasting Network
That's Why!
Because to ask Romney and Ryan the "truth" would screw Obama because the stories told to you about Romney are half truths,takin out of context and most just flat out lies,just like asking O to tell the truth would never happen because it is the National Barackcasting Netwits= NBC ( thanks super sport )
I can see some reading comprehension problems here...what a surprise.
Hey, this is a warning for anyone who's voting for Romney/Ryan ticket! Early voters in Ohio discovered that when they checked over their electronic ballot before hitting "vote" their vote for Romney had mysteriously been switched to a vote for obamanation!!! Several voters who were interviewed said they were thankful that they rechecked their ballot but lamented over how many voter who voted for Romney didn't before casting their vote!!!! This is truth and can be checked out!!! It just goes to show how desperate the democrats have become--rigging the election!!!
Happened in 08 too
Yeah, I read where Bigfoot was appalled at the voting. Him and Godzilla. Yeah, desperate. I'm sure that the voting machines owned by Romney's son would switch votes to Obama, but only when the Easter Bunny switch failed.
But the article I read the other day said Tagg Romney owned those machines and rigged them for Romney. How can this be?
"lose as many as 340,000 votes as a result of Hurricane Sandy, not enough to affect the outcome in heavily Democratic Northeastern states" Yup, one single then will not matter, it's pointless to vote, it's a system that makes people feel like they are in control, when they really are not. There are other people behind the curtain that control this nation.
Yep, Do AWAY with the Electoral College!
we can't have that , nooooooo not 300,000 votes , LOL !!!!
I am so glad the elction is in 4 days. It will be nice to end all the negative commercials and BS.
Montanaro fails to make the case for just exactly how lower turnout due to Sandy that does not have any effect on the final electoral college tally would "shape the political discourse" should Obama win a second term. We will still have an intransigent Republican minority that would be doubly resentful of Obama for his success in good governance. This will be the case independent of any hurricane's influence. Should Republicans retain the House, one can expect little good coming out of Washington over the next four years even with an Obama win. Should Romney win...well...let's just say I hope I'm not at ground zero for the next major weather catastrophe when FEMA has been privatized and outsourced to the states. That unhappy day would certainly shape the political discourse for years to come.
Seriously?? Hurricanes have allways happened,Global Warming is a myth perpetrated by narcissistic Baffons telling fairy tails.
Yeah, 'cause global warming would involve global circulation, which is not possible when the earth is flat.
As to your non-response: Hello! Did you even read my post? I said nothing about global warming. Severe weather events are the rule rather than the exception now. Or have you not been following weather events over the past several years or so? Check out what the governor of New York has to say on the subject. Pretending these issues do not need to be dealt with is hiding your head in the sand, and it matters little whether climate change is the cause or not. Real science has proven climate change (global warming) is real, but regardless, we still have to deal with the reality of increasing severe weather events. And we need a strong central government role to do so.
I shook my head when I read the phrase "Obama and Harry Reid's demonizing of Republicans." It was Mitch McConnell, wasn't it, who way back when declared that the Republicans' first priority would be to deny Obama a second term, and lockstep obstructionism has been the method of attempting to achieve that party-first-country-be-damned goal. So, commonamerican1, if you're looking for someone to blame it's the people you've probably voted for.
Obama had a cloture proof Senate and a huge majority in the House. He didn't need a single Republican vote, and Republicans couldn't do a thing to stop Obama from implementing his agenda (ObamaCare passed over Republican objections and without a single Republican vote). Blaming the failure of the Obama administration on Republicans is simply pathetic.
Wanna try revisiting your revisionist history, Martha? Obama had his "cloture proof" Senate for about 2-1/2 months. Try again. Talk about pathetic.
By the way, the Republicans are ON TAPE making these statements. Facts are facts...constantly lying and stretching the truth will not alter them.
You got the wrong President Harrison. It was Benjamin Harrison who, in 1888, won the Electoral College, but not the popular vote. William Henry Harrison, Benjamin's grandfather, won both in the election of 1840.
William Henry Harrison also died a month into his presidency, after giving his inauguration speech in the rain and catching pneumonia. Off topic, but interesting.
got the lyrics to a good Romney song.. remember Charlie Brown.. he's a clown..
How about Mitt's a lie.. ask me why?
he wants to be the pres... just you wait and see
if Mitt is elected you all will be crying to me..
.he's going to tax
your butts and then call it fees..
but don't you ignorance racist start crying see..
the hatred and racism will get you in the end..
so you thought Bush got you....
Mitt's going to cut you a new one...
if your vote gets him...
Mitt's a lie.. don't ask me why..
Keep professing's he's good.....
when the next war starts and no new jobs.
i'll be here laughing while you take it hard..
You should keep your day job.
Oh, that's right, you don't have one!
stupid article... is someone trying to put the fix in?
I just heard the IBEW Union will not allow non union electrical workers from Alabama into New Jersey unless they join the union. Tonight in New York and New Jersey as you sit with your union brothers and sisters you can curse the dark!
Lie.
I heard a group of Jersey Shore people gave Obama a tee shirt that said "Welcome to New Jersey NOW GO HOME", another rumor was Mitt Romney was hiding in the helicopter Obama was in, rumor has it Romney tried pushing Obama out of the copter and give him a big Jersey wave good bye
Here come the lawsuits. Can you imagine, "God" Obama suing God for causing him to lose all these votes? HAHAHA - if it weren't so pathetic.
There is only one thing that is certain: when Obama loses on November 6th, it won't be his fault. It will be the fault of Sandy, voter suppression, racism, the TEA party, George Bush, the pizza delivery boy... anyone and anything other than the reality. Obama is a lazy, arrogant, condescending, incompetent buffoon with absolutely zero positive accomplishments for his first term and no agenda for a second term other than more of the same.
You had me going there for a second. Then I finished reading. Touche'
I hear Bloomberg and Obama were overlooking the devastation when Bloomberg turned to Obama and said, "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job!"
WHEN- he (Obama) refused to disclose who donated money to his election campaign, as other candidates had done, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he received endorsements from people like Louis Farrakhan, Muramar Kaddafi and Hugo Chavez, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- it was pointed out that he was a total newcomer and had absolutely no experience at anything except community organizing, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he chose friends and acquaintances such as Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn who were revolutionary radicals, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- his voting record in the Illinois Senate and in the U.S. Senate came into question, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he refused to wear a flag lapel pin and did so only after a public outcry, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- people started treating him as a Messiah and children in schools were taught to sing his praises, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he stood with his hands over his groin area for the playing of the National Anthem and Pledge of Allegiance, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he surrounded himself in the White House with advisors who were pro-gun control, pro-abortion, pro-homosexual marriage and wanting to curtail freedom of speech to silence the opposition, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he said he favors sex education in kindergarten, including homosexual indoctrination, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- his personal background was either scrubbed or hidden and nothing could be found about him, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- the place of his birth was called into question, and he refused to produce a birth certificate, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he had an association in Chicago with Tony Rezco - a man of questionable character and who is now in prison and had helped Obama to a sweet deal on the purchase of his home - people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- it became known that George Soros, a multi-billionaire Marxist, spent a ton of money to get him elected, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he started appointing White House Czars that were radicals, revolutionaries, and even avowed Marxist /Communists, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he stood before the Nation and told us that his intentions were to "fundamentally transform this Nation" into something else, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- it became known that he had trained ACORN workers in Chicago and served as an attorney for ACORN, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he appointed cabinet members and several advisors who were tax cheats and socialists, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he appointed a Science Czar, John Holdren, who believes in forced abortions, mass sterilizations and seizing babies from teen mothers, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he appointed Cass Sunstein as Regulatory Czar who believes in "Explicit Consent," harvesting human organs without family consent and allowing animals to be represented in court, while banning all hunting, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he appointed Kevin Jennings, a homosexual and organizer of a group called Gay, Lesbian, Straight, Education Network as Safe School Czar and it became known that he had a history of bad advice to teenagers, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he appointed Mark Lloyd as Diversity Czar who believes in curtailing free speech, taking from one and giving to another to spread the wealth, who supports Hugo Chavez, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- Valerie Jarrett, an avowed Socialist, was selected as Obama's Senior White House Advisor, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- Anita Dunn, White House Communications Director, said Mao Tse Tung was her favorite philosopher and the person she turned to most for inspiration, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he appointed Carol Browner, a well known socialist as Global Warming Czar working on Cap and Trade as the nation's largest tax, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he appointed Van Jones, an ex-con and avowed Communist as Green Energy Czar, who since had to resign when this was made known, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- Tom Daschle, Obama's pick for Health and Human Services Secretary could not be confirmed because he was a tax cheat, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- as President of the United States , he bowed to the King of Saudi Arabia , people said it didn't matter..
WHEN- he traveled around the world criticizing America and never once talking of her greatness, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- his actions concerning the Middle East seemed to support the Palestinians over Israel , our long time ally, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he took American tax dollars to resettle thousands of Palestinians from Gaza to the United States , people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he upset the Europeans by removing plans for a missile defense system against the Russians, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he played politics in Afghanistan by not sending troops early-on when the Field Commanders said they were necessary to win, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he started spending us into a debt that was so big we could not pay it off, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he took a huge spending bill under the guise of stimulus and used it to pay off organizations, unions, and individuals that got him elected, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he took over insurance companies, car companies, banks, etc., people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he took away student loans from the banks and put it through the government, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he designed plans to take over the health care system and put it under government control, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he claimed he was a Christian during the election and tapes were later made public that showed Obama speaking to a Muslim group and 'stating' that he was raised a Muslim, was educated as a Muslim, and is still a Muslim, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he set into motion a plan to take over the control of all energy in the United States through Cap and Trade, people said it didn't matter.
WHEN- he finally completed his transformation of America into a Socialist State , people woke up--- but it was too late. Add these up one by one and you get a phenomenal score that points to the fact that Barrack Hussein Obama is determined to turn America into a Marxist-Socialist society.
All of the items in the preceding paragraphs have been put into place. All can be documented very easily. Before you disavow this do an Internet search. The last paragraph alone is not yet cast in stone. You and I will write that paragraph.
Will it read as above or will it be a more happy ending for most of America ?
Didn't read...lol !
Of course you didn't Rosso3, no sense confusing you with facts!
Actually, it isn't worth reading, as it is loaded with inaccuracies, hearsay, distortions, and flat-out lies. Facts? Not so much.
Is there anything in there about Romney disclosing the names of his anonymous bundlers as Obama did, or releasing 12 years of tax returns as Obama did? If not, TL;DR.