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President Obama stands to lose as many as 340,000 votes as a result of Hurricane Sandy, not enough to affect the outcome in heavily Democratic Northeastern states, but something that could make a difference in the popular vote if the results of Tuesday’s presidential race are as close as polls indicate, a First Read analysis finds.
“Sandy has the potential to reduce Obama's national popular vote share by depressing turnout in highly Democratic areas along the Eastern Seaboard,” Dr. Michael McDonald of George Mason University, who studies turnout, told First Read. “The storm is unlikely to change the Electoral College outcome, as Obama is heavily favored to win the affected states. A turnout drop could be the difference in a close national election, and thus could shape the political discourse over important policy issues in a possible Obama second term.”
Recommended: Romney tries to crack Obama's Midwest firewall in Wisconsin
For example, assuming 2008 vote totals and a 15 percent reduction in turnout in the coastal counties most affected by Hurricane Sandy in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, Obama would lose a net of 340,000 votes, including 247,000 out of New York, 60,000 from New Jersey, 29,000 from Connecticut, and 3,600 from Rhode Island.
Officials in states hit by Hurricane Sandy are now deciding how to hold an election next Tuesday in communities where residents have been displaced and there's still no power. NBC's Tom Curry discusses.
Officially, four times in American history has a candidate become president while losing the popular vote -- John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and George W. Bush in 2000. (Some political scientists believe it’s actually five, and that John F. Kennedy lost the popular vote in 1960.) Most recently, the country was divided in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote by 540,000, but lost the Electoral College narrowly because of 537 votes in Florida.
It would be even more accurate to dive into individual precincts, but here’s a rough a county-by-county breakdown:
New York: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -247,000
New York – Obama -86,000, Romney -14,000, Net: Obama -72,000
Queens – Obama -72,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -49,000
Kings – Obama -91,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -68,000
Bronx – Obama -51,000, Romney -6,000, Net: Obama -45,000
Richmond – Obama -12,000, Romney -13,000, Net: Romney -1,000
Nassau – Obama -51,000, Romney -43,000, Net: Obama -8,000
Suffolk – Obama -52,000, Romney -46,000, Net: Obama -6,000
New Jersey: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -60,000
Bergen – Obama -34,000, Romney -28,000, Net: Obama -6,000
Hudson – Obama -23,000, Romney -8,000, Net: Obama -15,000
Union – Obama -21,000, Romney -12,000, Net: Obama -9,000
Essex – Obama -36,000, Romney -11,000, Net: Obama -25,000
Middlesex – Obama -29,000, Romney -19,000, Net: Obama -10,000
Monmouth –Obama -22,000, Romney -24,000, Net: Romney -2,000
Ocean – Obama -16,500, Romney, -24,000, Net: Romney -7,500
Atlantic – Obama -10,200, Romney -7,500, Net: Obama -2,700
Cape May – Obama -3,500, Romney -4,000, Net: Romney -500
Connecticut: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -29,000
Fairfield – Obama -36,000, Romney -25,000, Net: Obama -9,000
New Haven – Obama -35,000, Romney -22,000, Net: Obama -13,000
Middlesex – Obama -8,000, Romney -5,000, Net: Obama -3,000
New London – Obama -11,000, Romney -7,000, Net: Obama -4,000
Rhode Island: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -3,600
Washington – Obama -6,000, Romney -4,000, Net: Obama -2,000
Newport – Obama -4,000, Romney -2,400, Net: Obama -1,600
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Let's see..........Bill (I didn't have sex with that woman, I only diddled her with my cigar and got blowjobs in the Oval office) Clinton forced banks to to make loans to people who couldn't afford to buy homes, Senators Dodd, Frank, and OBAMA stopped Bush THREE SEPERATE TIMES from investigating Fannie and Freddie (who pretty much started this whole economy mess we are in now) and let me guess; It's Bush's Fault. You Dems are funny. And Benghazi didn't really happen, right? It was really a You-Tube video or something, right? As an American Veteran I rank Obama right up there with Jimmy Carter as Idiot-In-Chief. Time for you to go Obama!!!
Romney/Ryan 2012 and more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Glad to see you use your rights on voting fd (VET)
As a war-vet, my vote goes to-----
President Obama--2012
Sure f d. As a veteran, I find posts like yours putrid. When Reagan allowed the barracks in Lebanon to be blown up, did you hate him, too?
FD,
What you are saying is utterly false. Clinton did NOT FORCE BANKS to make loans. However, banks were making big profits on signing ignorant people up for dangerous ARM loans that reverted to HIGH interest (for bank profits) after a short period of time. Besides, the housing bubble and burst occurred all during the Bush years, after Clinton. There were nearly 7 Bush years of extreme artificial housing bubble being fed by banks wanting big profits from signing many loans and especially ARM loans.
Common sense should cost Obama 1 million votes.
300K votes lost? Sounds like about the same # of dead & illegal votes he has lined up,so I say its a wash.
Only known vote fraud this election is by the right...
I think what this article meant is that how can you have an election in the middle of disaster. It has nothing to do with who people would vote for, its HOW. No power, no water, no food, no gas. Its like asking people to vote in the middle of drone warfare. How dare we place an election over people in this condition!
Can the media give the Democrats and Obama any positive press...it's always a negative point of view...always positive for Romney....so tired of the press and their negativeness...we got it...you're for Romney that came through loud and clear through this whole election and you know I hope that you go down with Romney....try to say something nice when he wins will you, as we know it won't be with the help of any of the press coverage you have given Obama/Biden during this year...
In Houston, when IKE hit, we didn't have electricity for 3 weeks, but my boss got a generator, pluged in our computers and phone system, we brought lamps from home, and we worked. We only shut down the day of the storm, then it was the weekend and Monday morning we went back to work. No electricity does not make you handicapped! You work with what you have! I would love to have gone to vote because I bet they would have had it air conditioned in there.
It hurts each time I hear of American losing their lives in these storms. The people without electricity for ten days, I'm sure it seems like the world is coming to an end. America is somewhat spored in away. Until everyone spends a year without electricity in a stinking fox hole, not knowing if your going to die in a war zone,we shouldn't complain that much. We should just count our blessings that we all live in America.
This Vietnam war vet approves of this message.
President Obama--2012
the teapublicans are the Christian taliban and they need to go back to where they came from. The majority of the American Public are sick and tired of your bs ... no one believes your lies but you.
You mean the minority don't you - most people I know have a religious affiliation - that's part of what this county was founded on. Freedom, freedom freedom - to believe however you want. Problems with libs is that if you don't think like they do, they start name calling. Why don't you move to a country more to your liking.
Change, you can have whatever religion you like, I guess, as long as you have one and it is approved by the right. Have I got that correct?
oh and if these were southern red states, the christian taliban would be up in arms ..screaming and hollering that R/R have been robbed of the white house. I never in my entire life, have heard the so called Christians spew racist slurs and utmost hatred towards Obama. And this comes from faux news and all their talking heads. WHEN obama wins re-election and when a woman of color wins the white house, those two things alone will give Rove, Boehner, Limbaugh, Koch bros . Ryan and the rest of the asswipes a heart attack. Someone get the paddles ready on Nov 6 .. the R/R team and the christian taliban will need them
The operatives in the shadows of the GOP want voter ID laws that are drawn up to restrict certain people from voting, not to prevent fraud. They place billboards up with threatening & deceiving messages in certain neighborhoods. They plan on placing some supporters at pulling places to intimidate & give wrong information to certain voters. Targeted areas & people have been instructed to vote on Nov.7. These kind of tactics are more than desperation, they're downright anti-American. Republicans love to wave that flag & sing God bless America, but they're unknowingly being led off a cliff they thought would lead them to prosperity.
All those thousands of people that died unnecessarily (911) looks like the Repub
drop the ball and then took the country to war with the wrong county killing
thousands more. Mitt was wrong on FEMA, wrong on Ben Laden, wrong on the automobile
industry, wrong on female issues, wrong on the Middle East so much so in the
last debate he agreed with everything the president said, these are just some
of the things he was wrong on! What about how he just blatantly lie: you can go
to YouTube and find binders of videos where he says one thing and when ask the
same question a week later he has different answer. HOW COULD THIS PERSON BE A
BETTER CHOICE?... GO FIGURE Also don't forget he wants to give tax break to the
top 1% and he bashes 47% of Americans behind
close door AND TO THOSE WHO THINK THIS IS A GOOD CHOICE FOR AMERICA YOU MAY HAVE BUYERS REMORSE when this is all
said and DONE! And for those people that can’t get pass race, image this “the
President a white man” and he was up against Mitt Rubbish WOULD THIS BE A
DIFFICULT CHOICE TO MAKE?
And let's not forget the 4 americans that just died in Lybia. Oh that was Obama sorry.
scottyusa, not really comparable, but nice try. You folks keep trying to politicize the deaths of these four Americans...it makes you look really good.
Scotty,
You are straining at a speck and ignoring the beam in the republican's eyes.
Worst attack ever on American soil on 9/11/2001, costing over 3000 American lives and trillions of American dollars, much of it added to the federal deficit, and the repub president and repub congress did NOTHING to prevent it in spite of many warnings in advance.
Repub president and repub congress quickly used 911 along with other false pretenses to start a totally unnecessary war in Iraq that killed nearly 5000 more Americans and permanently maimed tens of thousands more and added another trillion dollars to the US federal deficit.
Repub president and vice president nominee in 2012 are placing these same failed policies and many more repub failed policies that brought us the Bush Great Recession on the ballot. Romney/Ryan are advocating huge military spending increases, no tax increases to pay for the repub wars and the deficit, especially on those who can afford it most. Romney/Ryan instead are planning on attempting the impossible--trying to balance the budget on the backs of the poorest, oldest and most vulnerable American citizens (poor children, handicapped citizens and future seniors) through massive cuts to the food stamp and Medicaid programs and by privatizing Medicare for future seniors to allow private insurance companies to again price most future seniors out of the market leaving them unable to pay for world-record inflated US healthcare costs.
Since the popular vote doesn't count, why even bring it up?? Wasted story in my mind.
Too funny NBC. I suppose there are no republicans in the Northeast or, if there are, they are expected to be unaffected by the storm right? So 300,000 democrats may not vote but all the republicans will. As an independent I find you people hilarious.
Republicans have been accounted for and the deficit is to Democrats. There are so many more Democrats in the areas hardest hit by the hurricane. If this disaster had hit in a heavily Republican area such as Texas or the south republicans would have been impacted greater than Democrats. The area this hurricane hit was also one of the densest populated areas in the country with a much heaver Democrat population than republican.
This was said at the onset of the President taking office:
Mitch McConnell: “Our top political priority over the next 2 years should be to denied President Obama a second term” not help the american people get back on track.
Grover Norquist: We are not auditioning for fearless leader we don’t need a president
to tell us what direction to go. The Republicans in the house has pass 24 plus bills
in the house that creates jobs and opportunities and STRIPOUT REGULATIONS we
just need a president to sign this stuff. We don’t need someone to think it up
or design it. So focus on electing the most conservative Republicans who can
win in each House seat and the most conservative Republicans who can win in
each Senate seat and then pick a Republican with enough working digits (That’s you Mitt) to handle a pen to
become President of the United States.
This stuff is crazy coming from the Republicans.
Obama loses: It's the fault of Democrats who stayed at home. OR is it the Independents who wanted a change? The fact that it is too close to call means he has not done his job. Economy should have been job #1, but priorities like ObamaCare and the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell became more of a focus. These may may be important, but it's the economy stupid! Just think if he fixed that, his "star" power would have skyrocketed even more. He blew it.
There is something horribly wrong with a country who considers themselves a free democratic country and yet does not allow citizens impacted by a major natural disaster the right to vote due to their circumstances caused by the natural disaster.
To bad, Obama looses both popular vote and electrical vote. Romney 300+ electorial votes. Obama looses.
Yeah, sure, because EVERY poll is wrong and only you know.
Looses? Electrical vote? Holy cow.
300000 votes lost, my a$$. Your vote doesnt count because of the electoral college.
First of all you communist bastard, I AM American, and a Vet (Desert Storm).
Bush and his"cabinet" were no where to be found for the frist 8 days of Katrina. If you went down sounth you'd see big mounds over overgrown bushes, which are actually covering up the homes that never got touched.
Sitting behind a computer makes you oh so tough...we'll big man, why don't you come to chicago and "shut me the f*ck up" ?
Yeah! Because only Doug is free to say what he wants! If anybody else says anything, especially something he disagrees with, he will let them know it!
Hey, Doug, if an Israel posts something on here, will you abuse them as well? Just wondering, as the Republican platform seems to place Israel at or above the concerns of the American people.
Hey Doug J,
Who created god and how was god created?
When did I say I was Canadian? NEVER little pock faced mud trout.
Quit smokin your 420 and actually get a clue.
I mean if your life is that bad, do the world a favor and end your misery.
BTW its CONGRESS that runs this country....I'm writing myself in under the "Deport ALL Illegals" Party.
Poor Doug...
I'm a vet and I would believe that Freedom was a vet before I would believe you. But at least you know how to threaten folks and use childish names. If you're a vet, with an attitude and temper like yours, I'd be willing to bet you never were above E-2, at least not for long.
With the government running relief efforts, an audit would be useless....... the report would not be release for another 10 years........ and even then, it would only say, "Blame Bush"
Hell evberybody blames Bush stupid. It's not like we don't know what he did as President. He was a war monger and so is numb nuts willard. Same people associated with him as with Bush. Please don't just because we are Democrat we are stupid. How many soldiers did he get killed for the sake of his dada and oil corps and Haliburton ect, etc ,etc?
POTUS Obama has had a very good week. The political trajectory has been a steady rise for him. Confidence and campaigning going strong, with very enthusiastic, and growing crowds. Image is great!
Mittens has simply been inept and desperate in tone. His auto-industry-to-China campaign ads are disasterous, pathetic and completely untrue. He's tripping over his own two feet, by sounding so juvenile and silly, this week. He's talking to his supporters like they are total fools. Hmmm...!
Obama/Biden will win on Nov 6, 2012! No doubt!!
Reality: Endgame...!!!
MSDNC is already making up excuses for why Obama is going to lose.
Try actually reading the article before making dumb statements about its content. Oh, and the sophomoric "MSDNC" thing is a little stale. First of all, this is an NBC News site, and the inference you make is bogus. Secondly, Microsoft has had nothing to do with this site, hence the "msnbc" name, for some time now. Try to keep up.
This is one reason why he will loose
On the very day U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans were killed in the U.S. Consulate attack on Libya in September, someone on the U.S. team in Benghazi apparently spotted a suspicious member of the local police force photographing the inside of the U.S. mission.
Reporters from ForeignPolicy.com say they found a draft letter expressing concern among documents left on site more than six weeks after the attack, and nearly a month after the FBI was there collecting evidence.
One of the documents found after the Sept. 11 U.S. Consulate attack in Benghazi, Libya that left U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans dead. / FOREIGNPOLICY.COM
Notations indicate the letter was intended for the head of the Libyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Benghazi.
"... early this morning at 0643, September 11, 2012, one of our diligent guards made a troubling report. Near our main gate, a member of the police force was seen in the upper level of a building across from our compound. It is reported that this person was photographing the inside of the U.S. special mission and furthermore that this person was part of the police unit sent to protect the mission."
It goes on to ask for an investigation. It's unclear whether the letter was sent and what action may have been taken, but it reflects the continued security concerns of U.S. diplomats in Benghazi in the weeks and days leading up to the assault.
Another draft letter dated two days before the attack complains that requested police support for Ambassador Stevens' visit had not been supplied.
"...We requested daily, twenty-four hour police protection at the front and rear of the U.S. mission as well as a roving patrol. In addition we requested the services of a police explosive detection dog. We were given assurances from the highest authorities in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that all due support would be provided for Ambassador Stevens' visit to Benghazi. However, we are saddened to report that we have only received an occasional police presence at our main gate. Many hours pass when we have no police support at all."
Sources: Key task force not convened during Benghazi consulate attack Former Obama WH chief of staff defends Benghazi handling Libyan witnesses recount organized Benghazi attack Military response to Benghazi attack questioned
As special security teams for Libya were reduced in them months before the attack, the U.S. diplomats increasingly relied on the local Libyan security and the police force for protection. The commander of the U.S. military security team that left Benghazi a month before the attack told me relying on the Libyans was risky business because they were often found to be affil
Media and dramatic hype coming from dramatic sources and nothing more.
We will only fully know what occured when the CIA releases it's findings and reports.
There go the conspirocon's already making their plans to twist the findings of the CIA into lies....or maybe thats the truth of the lie?
Who knows such things?
Yeah, Ster2, I heard that they found a document that indicated Romney was directly involved in getting blueprints of the layout of the facility and supplying them to the radicals. The paper included wording that stated this all could then be ascribed to Obama, thereby winning Romney the presidency, a la Reagan and the Iranian Hostage Crisis. Ryan apparently said that they should make sure the attack was on 9/11, as that would provide more impact; he said Grandpa Munster told him so.
Sources: Milkman and resident of "facility" in nearby town.
See, we can all play this game.
By the way, it is "lose" not "loose" - you will learn the word better come Wednesday morning when you see it all over the press in relation to your candidate.
Don't forget about how Reagan did nothing after the attack on the Marine Barracks in Beruit in 1983 where 241 U.S. Marines were killed by terrorist attacks.
The GOP's response - artillery strikes at "SUSPECTED" not know camps of the attackers.
Typical response from the GOP military not responding to directly attack those responsible but attacking those who might have been responsible.
The same mentality was present on 9.11.01. The GOP knew the attacks were coming because of the first attack on the WTC and the bombing of the Marine Barracks in 1983. Yet when they were told that the attacks were going to take place they did nothing until after the attack occured. There was about 25 years worth of intelligence that pointed to the attacks on 9.11.01 going to take place.
But in typical fashion the GOP did nothing until after the fact.
The same trait resonates with Romney's campaign as well. He thinks that he knows who attacked in Benghazi but really doesn't know.
Not only does this paint Romney a fool of a leader for not knowing but also paints him as a puppet where the GOP will be able to send before him any bill that he will sign off on without looking at it first to ensure its Constitutionality and validation.
The nest thing you know America will be controlled by the like of Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter. We all know how disasterous that would be.
Romney is puppet. He is not a leader and does not have any business in the White House other to allow the further erosion of American Pride for the sake of his own pocket and his Communist Bath House Lover in China.
Wow,I dnt write it I copy/pasted it so go talk to NBC and Newsweek they exposed the Doc's,and living in the long past keeps you there,I just want to know what the hell really happened,game playing as you say is not what America needs,I would want to know what the Heck happened if any Party were in Office,I have Family and friends serving,you see Nutjob it's not a game at all its real life,and living in the past and not learning from past mistakes hurts us all.And pardon my spelling I never said I was a grammar wiz :) Happy Voting.Yes We Can ! Romney!
You lie and play games on these boards constantly, yet you have the temerity to post this defense? Give me a break. Oh, and as a veteran, excuse me for not bowing to you because you supposedly have "Family and friends" serving. That's a lame excuse the right uses all the time for posting dreck...doesn't work.
Creating a Disaster Relief Voting System
When such a natural disaster takes place within a months time of voting in major elections the voting time for those who may not have voted on Election Day or through Early Voting should be given the oppurtunity to vote in an area not affected by the disaster.
This will ensure that all votes are still cast and counted unlike the GOP that would say
"No, we cannot take such events to mean that the American Voter should be taken into any consideration outside of this natural act created by God for the sole reason and purpose known only to God."
Basically the GOP once again using religion to deny the vote because such a vote may go against them and their ability to be elected to office so they can once again scam money from Americans through the tax free system of religion.
"You have your god. My goddess gave me her broadsword to lop your god's head off with."
"Come hell or high water, every American will cast their vote on Election Day or before and after when a natural disaster strike."
So how do we republicans get the storms to come back on an even larger scale for election day?
Because all the matters to the right is winning, regardless of death and destruction...
I don't want to spike the football yet....but this hopefully has the makings of a perfect scenario. The first debate kept Romney in it for a while and with it, all the money from the Super PACs and the RNC. I was worrided they were going to pull money and really go heavy in the downballot races. They didn't because they thought Romney could win....in the mean time, however, the Senate became basically out of reach for the GOP...and there is even talk the Dems could take back the House.
Pure, utter rejection of everything the right has stood for since 2010. I love it!
(1) Post Katrina it was WALMART that was able to get water, diapers etc using their distribution system into NOLA. FEMA was a bit late to the game as was the Red Cross.
(2) We now have mandatory health care - but I am earning only 40% of what I was making prior to the recession --- so how am I to pay for it?
(3) I did not vote for Obama in 2008 - the only thing the man has done is be a politician. That does not make him a leader - it makes him a 'smooth talker'.
(4) You can call it an 'auto bailout' but it was essentially a bankruptcy (only no one wanted to use the word).
(5) Making 40% of my pre-recession income means I'm paying a lot less taxes. We need our jobs back that can provide a decent living ad the governmant will have more money in it's coffers overall.
(6) Incomes have NOT kept pace with inflation, etc. Incomes need to be adjusted and business will need to take the cut in profit ( sorry shareholders but if we don't work your stock is worthless). Maybe we need a national revolt/strike etc to lay down the law to elected officials, shareholders,etc - the CITIZENS own this country not some elected nincompoop or corporate bigwig.
Sandy... you referred to the auto bailout/bankruptcy. Didn't GM & Chrysler pay back the money already?
Also, I'm sorry to hear of your lost income. I'm also a victim of what occurred during and continuing after the GW Bush legacy. What we are dealing with today is much more from the last 4 years of the Bush administration.Pres. Obama & America just inherited these last 4 yrs. of recession.
Sandy...All your fact are wrong!! Turn off fox! And next time you see a republican you can thank them for the mess they caused! We can't afford to go back to the 2000's economy. It didn't work and now we're paying the price! Here is a real life lesson in Reagonomics! A failure!
Romney: None and Done!
gcwil57....actually it was the democratic policies of the Clinton years that caused our financial mess....The economy surged especially in the housing market, as He and his policies tried to put every citizen in their own home....the majority of whom could not afford them. It was the government loans that brought this country to it's financial ruin. The democratic polices of take from everyone else and give to the people who don't want to work for a living, just don't work. What we cannot afford to go back to is the democratic policies of the Clinton years that only kicked the can 8 years down the road. The piper must be paid, and paid he was.
My Insurance premiums increased by almost 10% this upcoming plan year. My prescription co-pays almost doubled, yet my pay only increased by 2%. So much for Obama Care. Another failed policy.