Latest polls: National: AP/GFK: Romney 47-45%. FOX: Tied at 46-46%. Washington Post-ABC tracker: 49-49%. National Journal/Princeton Survey: Obama 50-45%. States: IA: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50-44%. University of Iowa: Romney 45-44%. WI: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 49-46%. Marquette Law School: Obama 51-43%. NH: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 49-47%. OH: University of Cincinnati: Obama 48-46%. VA: Roanoke College: Romney 49-44%. MI: Detroit Free Press/WXYZ/EPIC-MRA: Obama 48-42%.
There have been 130 polls in 57 days, per Pollster’s Mark Blumenthal. And AP points out: “Much of the proliferation of polling in the last few years has come from the cheaper end of the scale, with automated pollsters dominating popular poll aggregations. Polls conducted using automated methodology do not meet the standards for coverage of The Associated Press, nor do partisan polls.”
Speaking of complaining about polls: “Mitt Romney’s pollster lashed out Wednesday at a new Ohio poll showing President Obama up five in the state, calling the survey ‘a piece of crap,’” Politico writes.
Why the differences in polls? Democrats are assuming a more diverse electorate. Republicans are assuming it won’t be. Reid Wilson: “Most Republican pollsters are using something close to a 2008 turnout model, with the same percentage of white, black and Hispanic voters as the electorate that first elected Obama. Most Democratic pollsters are a little more bullish on minority turnout, which helps explain some of the difference between the two sides.” And: “Republicans say their party is a victim of media bias -- but not in the standard Lamestream Media sort of way. Pollsters on both sides try to persuade public surveyors that their voter turnout models are more accurate reflections of what's going to happen on Election Day. This year, GOP pollsters and strategists believe those nonpartisan pollsters are adopting Democratic turnout models en masse.”
Per the Fox poll: “Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October. There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back Romney by 51-42 percent, while women side with Obama by 50-42 percent. The new Fox poll finds Obama under-performing compared to his 2008 exit poll numbers by 13 percentage points among independents, 9 points among white men, 6 points among women and 4 points among voters under age 30. Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are ‘extremely’ interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent.”
NBC’s affiliate in West Palm Beach, FL, reports: “A memo obtained by NewsChannel 5's Evan Axelbank, from an adviser to a Florida GOP campaign, says that the Democratic turnout effort is ‘cleaning our clock.’ The memo says, ‘The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling.’ It also says, ‘Even if Romney wins the state (likely based on polls), the turnout deficit in PBC will affect our local races.’”
“With six days until the election, President Obama’s double-digit lead over Mitt Romney when it comes to whom voters trust more on health policy has eroded over the last month, according to the latest Kaiser Family Foundation health tracking poll,” the Boston Globe writes, adding, “Obama’s edge on most health issues has narrowed to just five to eight percentage points, according to October results released Wednesday. In September, the president had a 16 to 18 percentage point lead over Romney on these issues.”
“Just as the presidential race is deadlocked in the campaign’s final days, the candidates are also running about even when it comes to the ground game,” Pew writes of its poll. “Voters nationally, as well those in the closely contested battleground states, report being contacted at about the same rates by each of the campaigns. And with a fifth of likely voters reporting already having cast their ballots, neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.”
The Obama team is confident in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota. How confident? David Axelrod said on Morning Joe yesterday that he would “shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states.”
Could Romney win the popular vote and Obama the Electoral College? Bloomberg: “Some national polls give Republican Mitt Romney a slight edge in the popular vote -- although well within the margin of error -- while surveys show President Barack Obama ahead in a number of the most competitive states, which would hand him an Electoral College victory and a second term in the White House.”
Tired of this election? This sums it up: The Boston Globe: “Summarizing the sentiments of perhaps the entire nation, the 4-year-old girl from Colorado begins weeping at the toll that the presidential election has taken. ‘I’m tired,’ the girl, Abigael Evans, says in a video recorded by her mother. ‘I’m tired of Bronco Bamma and Mitt Romney.’ ‘That’s why you’re crying?’ the mother asks. The girl nods, with a tear coming down her cheek. ‘Aww…It will be over soon, Abby. Ok?’ the mother says. ‘The election will be over soon.’ ‘K,’ the girl says, sniffling.”
“Maryland voters returned to the polls Wednesday after early voting was canceled the previous two days due to superstorm Sandy,” the Washington Post writes. “For some voters, it was their second or third trip, because they decided to skip long lines on Saturday and Sunday as voters filled up polling places to cast their ballots ahead of the storm.”
This is different: Democratic Super PAC American Bridge sends out mailers in Indiana using Richard Mourdock’s own words.