Nov

2012

9:03am, EDT

2012: 130 polls in 57 days

Latest polls: National: AP/GFK: Romney 47-45%. FOX: Tied at 46-46%. Washington Post-ABC tracker: 49-49%. National Journal/Princeton Survey: Obama 50-45%. States: IA: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 50-44%. University of Iowa: Romney 45-44%. WI: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 49-46%. Marquette Law School: Obama 51-43%. NH: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama 49-47%. OH: University of Cincinnati: Obama 48-46%. VA: Roanoke College: Romney 49-44%. MI: Detroit Free Press/WXYZ/EPIC-MRA: Obama 48-42%.

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There have been 130 polls in 57 days, per Pollster’s Mark Blumenthal. And AP points out: “Much of the proliferation of polling in the last few years has come from the cheaper end of the scale, with automated pollsters dominating popular poll aggregations. Polls conducted using automated methodology do not meet the standards for coverage of The Associated Press, nor do partisan polls.”

Speaking of complaining about polls: “Mitt Romney’s pollster lashed out Wednesday at a new Ohio poll showing President Obama up five in the state, calling the survey ‘a piece of crap,’” Politico writes.

Why the differences in polls? Democrats are assuming a more diverse electorate. Republicans are assuming it won’t be. Reid Wilson: “Most Republican pollsters are using something close to a 2008 turnout model, with the same percentage of white, black and Hispanic voters as the electorate that first elected Obama. Most Democratic pollsters are a little more bullish on minority turnout, which helps explain some of the difference between the two sides.” And: “Republicans say their party is a victim of media bias -- but not in the standard Lamestream Media sort of way. Pollsters on both sides try to persuade public surveyors that their voter turnout models are more accurate reflections of what's going to happen on Election Day. This year, GOP pollsters and strategists believe those nonpartisan pollsters are adopting Democratic turnout models en masse.”

Per the Fox poll: “Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October. There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back Romney by 51-42 percent, while women side with Obama by 50-42 percent. The new Fox poll finds Obama under-performing compared to his 2008 exit poll numbers by 13 percentage points among independents, 9 points among white men, 6 points among women and 4 points among voters under age 30. Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are ‘extremely’ interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent.”

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NBC’s affiliate in West Palm Beach, FL, reports: “A memo obtained by NewsChannel 5's Evan Axelbank, from an adviser to a Florida GOP campaign, says that the Democratic turnout effort is ‘cleaning our clock.’ The memo says, ‘The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling.’ It also says, ‘Even if Romney wins the state (likely based on polls), the turnout deficit in PBC will affect our local races.’”

“With six days until the election, President Obama’s double-digit lead over Mitt Romney when it comes to whom voters trust more on health policy has eroded over the last month, according to the latest Kaiser Family Foundation health tracking poll,” the Boston Globe writes, adding, “Obama’s edge on most health issues has narrowed to just five to eight percentage points, according to October results released Wednesday. In September, the president had a 16 to 18 percentage point lead over Romney on these issues.”

“Just as the presidential race is deadlocked in the campaign’s final days, the candidates are also running about even when it comes to the ground game,” Pew writes of its poll. “Voters nationally, as well those in the closely contested battleground states, report being contacted at about the same rates by each of the campaigns. And with a fifth of likely voters reporting already having cast their ballots, neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.”

The Obama team is confident in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota. How confident? David Axelrod said on Morning Joe yesterday that he would “shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states.”

Could Romney win the popular vote and Obama the Electoral College? Bloomberg: “Some national polls give Republican Mitt Romney a slight edge in the popular vote -- although well within the margin of error -- while surveys show President Barack Obama ahead in a number of the most competitive states, which would hand him an Electoral College victory and a second term in the White House.”

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Tired of this election? This sums it up: The Boston Globe: “Summarizing the sentiments of perhaps the entire nation, the 4-year-old girl from Colorado begins weeping at the toll that the presidential election has taken. ‘I’m tired,’ the girl, Abigael Evans, says in a video recorded by her mother. ‘I’m tired of Bronco Bamma and Mitt Romney.’ ‘That’s why you’re crying?’ the mother asks. The girl nods, with a tear coming down her cheek. ‘Aww…It will be over soon, Abby. Ok?’ the mother says. ‘The election will be over soon.’ ‘K,’ the girl says, sniffling.”

“Maryland voters returned to the polls Wednesday after early voting was canceled the previous two days due to superstorm Sandy,” the Washington Post writes. “For some voters, it was their second or third trip, because they decided to skip long lines on Saturday and Sunday as voters filled up polling places to cast their ballots ahead of the storm.”

This is different: Democratic Super PAC American Bridge sends out mailers in Indiana using Richard Mourdock’s own words.

Explore related topics: decision-2012, first-read

Dean MoriartyDeleted

Sane-2794278

Both of your friends are voting Obama? Big deal! It's easy to spot the posers. You never were a republican and the whole story is BS. We have a community organizer who is pretending to be a leader. Why note take a play from his book. And courageous men don't mind if you interupt play time to let them know thier country men are being murded in Bengazi. Inept and cowardly is what he is. Time for a change.

1 vote

#2 - Thu Nov 1, 2012 12:24 PM EDT

Adler-273784

Here is a little story from Veterans Today that may help Sane(?) understand:

Friday, October 26th, 2012 | Posted by Gordon Duff

Benghazi Massacre: Fox/Huffington CIA Tale Nonsense

108

AC 130 Gunships, Typically in Aviano, 1700 miles away if at all, providing radio hadn’t been jammed

Imaginary Planes, Imaginary CIA Armies, All Invented as Election Ploy

–

By Gordon Duff, Senior Editor (with Top US Intel Specialists)

—

A trained team of up to 120 special forces personnel with radio jammers and heavy weapons killed the US ambassador. There were only two America CIA employees in Libya. The news stories are all fabrications.

The killing of Ambassador Stephens in Benghazi has become a ghoulish election ploy played by Fox News, Huffington Post and others. All are printing and broadcasting conjecture, total falsehood and the usual biased and unreliable garbage they are famous for.

RF Jammer Trucks, Gaddafi Had Dozens in Libya

Neither publication/network has qualified intelligence and/or military advisors. To be former military and work for Fox is considered prostitution.

The ambush at Benghazi required careful coordination. There was no Al Qaeda involvement and there has never been any history of Al Qaeda on the ground in Libya. Moreover, intelligence insiders use the term “Al Qaeda” when looking for money from “congressional critters” too stupid to know that the CIA has always run “Al Qaeda” as a way of avoiding explaining why dozens of small organizations and even friendly intelligence groups will, for obscure reasons, attack American targets.

Fox reported that a large convoy of Libyan milita relieved the compound at 3AM but that there had been no aid until 4 AM:

They were killed by a mortar shell at 4 a.m. Libyan time, nearly seven hours after the attack on the consulate began — a window that represented more than enough time for the U.S. military to send back-up from nearby bases in Europe, according to sources familiar with Special Operations. Four mortars were fired at the annex. The first one struck outside the annex. Three more hit the annex.

A motorcade of dozens of Libyan vehicles, some mounted with 50 caliber machine guns, belonging to the February 17th Brigades, a Libyan militia which is friendly to the U.S., finally showed up at the CIA annex at approximately 3 a.m.

Generously one can call this kind of reporting inconsitencies. Either they are there or they aren’t, either it is 3am or 4am but not both.

Nothing is simple enough for congress and the American people, this is the belief. When in doubt…lie.

The attack in Benghazi was coordinated with the broadcast of the Terry Jones/CATO Institute/Tea Party telethon worldwide. Rioting broke out in Tripoli but not Benghazi.

Ambassador Stephens had a 6 man detail, former SEALS, all private contractors from L3 Communications, a British company contracted to supply diplomatic security.

The team used was one of the best in the world, equal to any normal task, and by normal, we mean “high risk.” This is standard State Department policy and those used were not only top quality operators but went through months of specialized training at Blackwater’s facilities here in the US.

The second problem was tied to the Ambassador being, not in the Capitol, Tripoli, but in Benghazi to open a museum. I am deeply suspicious of this and as the CATO Institute and State Department are “co-mingled,” it would have been easy for information on the movements of the ambassador and his team to have been telegraphed to the enemy forces who had been positioned in Benghazi.

The forces themselves were spotted at the Tripoli airport several days in advance. Some may have entered from Egypt and some from Tunisia but 50 had come in from the UAE and were identified as Special Forces, UAE Special Forces, who had completed an extensive training program by retired US Special Forces and through the specialized American school for “irregular warfare,” located 45 miles outside Budapest, Hungary.

The attack itself involved pre-positioning two levels of blockade, one tying up any possible relief in Benghazi a kilometer away and another setting up a perimeter about 200 yards around the compound. Streets were blocked and heavy weapons, RPGs, truck mounted anti-aircraft guns and large mortars were used.

Mortar fire was so accurate that the compound had to have been pretargeted in advance. The first round hit the roof of the main building in the compound of 7 homes, all with minimal security.

The primary reason for no additional forces to have been available was the controversy during the civil war. Anti-war activists and “anti-imperialists in the pay of the Gaddafi family along with David Welch of Bechtel Corporation and Israeli mercenaries and advisors, along with troops from across Africa, specialists from Serbia and Belarus and other nations, created something more than a “fog of war” but rather a “fog of truth.”

Paid “shills” working for Gaddafi continually warned of Americans coming into the country armed as an occupation force. Thus, when the war ended, no armed Americans were brought in, only one small team and two CIA agents.

There were 3 additional armed local militia members providing security for the CIA who could have reached Stephens except for the blocked communications, the blocked roads and being outnumbered 30 to one.

The US does maintain 2 C130 gunships in the region. These are slow moving transport aircraft stationed at times in Northern Sardinia but more often further away at Aviano in Italy, North of Venice.

These are Air Force planes, not Navy.

The gunships are extremely effective weapons and would have been of help had they been available, had they been called though all radio and telephone traffic was jammed as with the 1967 attack on the USS Liberty and had the personnel in need of support been stationary and secure with strobe markers to secure them from the 20mm, 40mm and 105mm weapons on the AC130.

Instead, we have been informed, a two pronged and highly coordinated attack drove the US group to a safe house, into vehicles and corralled them in a pre-positioned ambush where their vehicle was attacked by a “quad 50″ anti-aircraft gun mounted on the back of a truck.

Such a weapon could destroy a Bradley Armoured Personnel Carrier or shoot down an Apache attack helicopter.

What is clear is that help was not available, that America moved into Libya with a minimal presence so as to seem unaggressive, to please critics of President Obama’s foreign policy among Republicans in Congress.

Blame them.

1 vote

#2.1 - Thu Nov 1, 2012 12:40 PM EDT

Sane-2794278

It helps me understand your source is as reliable as a junior high school paper. Find a news scource, not an opinion rag that has no investigative work behind it's print. I'm a vetran too, I guess that makes me the expert.

1 vote

#2.2 - Thu Nov 1, 2012 3:31 PM EDT

timetostandup

This coms from the same guy that said wiki leaks comes from Israel. HA HA HA

1 vote

#2.3 - Sat Nov 3, 2012 12:31 AM EDT

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mike-Pa

I really have to say looking at the polls... It looks as even as you can get. Depending on what formulas for turn out has been used ... Nobody can tell.... Again Rasmusen has been the most accurate since 2004.

#3 - Thu Nov 1, 2012 12:58 PM EDT

Patriot-1551348

WHY? NBC does not care about American lives being killed by terrorist on 9/11/12 by terrorist and the fact that Obama left them to die by their own refusing to report the news for left wing political agendas. Obama would not and did not give the security that the Libya Ambassador and his staff requested weeks prior to the attack and then told the CIA to stand down and not go in and rescue them during the 6 hour battle which left the Libya Ambassador and 3 other Americans dead.

This is Real News and a Cover-up which NBC has decided to not report and held with the Obama Administration cover-up with no regards for the Murdered Americans nor their grieving families. This is Criminal and absurd that others, including the media would Aid & Abet this crime.

NBC is Not a professional journalism reporting news media, only feeding the masses what they make up as news, rejecting their duties as journalist in favor of left wing political agendas, favoring Obama in this case!

Very sad day for America, reprehensible and an absolute disgrace to our Nation. May you all seek the Truth and Demand NBC to Report the Truth!

#4 - Thu Nov 1, 2012 2:21 PM EDT

blue4u

.... AND YET MORE LIES FROM FOX NEWS .... REPUBLICAN PARTY USING LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES ..... JUST PATHETIC !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! .... and voters don't see it ... or refuse to see it???

U.S. says CIA responded within 25 minutes to Benghazi attack

Intelligence officials dispute a report by Fox News that officers in Libya were ordered to 'stand down' after the diplomatic compound came under attack.

By Ken Dilanian, Los Angeles Times November 2, 2012

WASHINGTON — CIA security officers in a Benghazi post responded within 25 minutes to a call for help from a nearby State Department compound after it came under attack Sept. 11, officials said Thursday, seeking to refute a Fox News report asserting that CIA managers ordered them to stay put.

In releasing a detailed timeline of CIA actions that night, senior intelligence officials have put aside long-standing concerns about revealing the extent of the agency's presence in Benghazi in order to push back against what officials say are baseless allegations that aid was withheld.

"At every level in the chain of command, from the senior officers in Libya to the most senior officials in Washington, everyone was fully engaged in trying to provide whatever help they could," a senior intelligence official said in a statement. "There were no orders to anybody to stand down in providing support."

Fox News asserted in a story last week that CIA managers had ordered agency security officers to "stand down" and remain in their own facility, known as the Annex, when the attack on the diplomatic compound began about 9:40 p.m. and that there was an hour delay before officers disobeyed orders and went to help repel the attack that killed Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and State Department officer Sean Smith.

Among those who rushed to help was Tyrone Woods, a former Navy SEAL who was part of the CIA security team and who later died in the attacks.

The Fox story also asserted that the CIA "chain of command" refused to pass along requests from its officers for military aid and that special operations forces in nearby Sicily could have been sent to help but were not. Intelligence and Pentagon officials strenuously denied that Thursday.

They insisted there was no viable military option to disrupt what amounted to a series of sporadic attacks in a crowded city full of people sympathetic to the U.S. There were no armed drones in the region and airstrikes were not called for, officials said.

"Let's say we were able to get an aircraft there. Do you go in and start strafing a populated area without knowing where friend or foe is?" a senior Defense official asked. "If you did that, you could kill the very people you are trying to help."

A special operations team was sent to Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily, but the team arrived after the attack ended, said the senior Defense official, who would not be quoted by name discussing potentially classified
information.

Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta learned of the attack shortly after it began, about 4:30 p.m Eastern
time, Defense officials said, and discussed it in a previously scheduled meeting with the president. Obama ordered him to pursue whatever options were feasible, a Defense official said.

Panetta "ordered all appropriate forces to respond to the unfolding events in Benghazi, but the attack was over before those forces could be employed,"Pentagon spokesman George Little said.

Shortly after 11 p.m. a surveillance drone had arrived from elsewhere in Libya — about an hour after it was requested, officials said. But the video feed was not seen by the president, contrary to some news reports. And the feed did not offer analysts a clear understanding of what was happening on the ground, officials said.

After the CIA team arrived at the compound, "over the next 25 minutes, team members approach the compound, attempt to secure heavy weapons [from Libyans], and make their way onto the compound itself in the face of enemy fire," the senior U.S. intelligence official said.

The senior intelligence official disclosed that the CIA also sent a second six-member team from Tripoli on a chartered plane to help repel the attack. The team included Glen Doherty, another former SEAL, who was later killed when attackers fired mortar rounds at the CIA Annex.

The team arrived around midnight but got bogged down at the airport. Ultimately, it learned that "the ambassador was almost certainly dead" and headed to the agency facility "to assist with the evacuation," the official said.

It arrived with Libyan support at the Annex at 5:15 a.m., just before mortar rounds began to strike. Woods and Doherty were killed as they fired on militants from the roof. The mortar attack lasted 11 minutes, the official said.

The drone overhead was not armed. Even if it had been, there were no viable targets, officials said.

"The officers on the ground in Benghazi responded to the situation on the night of 11 and 12 September as quickly and as effectively as possible," the intelligence official said. "The security officers in particular were genuine heroes. They quickly tried to rally additional local support and heavier weapons, and when that could not be accomplished within minutes, they still moved in and put their own lives on the line to save their comrades."

#5 - Fri Nov 2, 2012 8:38 AM EDT

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p.Mack

Lying ass Mitt is going to lose no matter how many different positions he takes. The American ppl are smart enough to recognize a empty suite.

1 vote

#6 - Fri Nov 2, 2012 11:24 AM EDT

Progressive=Forward 11

Polls do not vote. The people do! Polls can be manipulated by the people who are doing it. Do not let the GOP/Tea Beggers manipulate the vote as well. Get out and vote America!