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COLUMBUS, OH – Just two years onto the job, Ohio’s junior senator, Rob Portman, might just be the key to Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney’s hopes of winning the Buckeye State for next week, and the freshman senator is under tremendous pressure to deliver.
A former frontrunner to round out Romney’s ticket, Portman has become one of the most prominent and effective surrogates for the GOP candidate, having also assumed a larger role in the Romney campaign by way of playing President Barack Obama in practice debate sessions.
Republican Senator from Ohio Rob Portman explains why the state is giving Mitt Romney trouble during this election cycle. Portman says in the past few weeks, however, the momentum has shifted.
More than that, Portman has been intimately involved in building the kind of organization upon which Romney will need to lean if he has hopes of winning Ohio, without which the former Massachusetts governor’s path to 270 electoral votes would become dicier.
***
It was a Saturday afternoon in late July when Portman stood in front of a small group of reporters to participate in a routine he had become quite familiar with: deflect differently-worded questions about his chances of becoming the Republican vice presidential nominee.
Moments before, he had been praising volunteers at Romney's Ohio headquarters for reaching their 1 millionth voter. Portman, who chairs Romney's efforts in the state, told the room full of supporters that grassroots campaigning would make the difference in this election and that Ohio would likely determine the next president. That's why, when he stepped in front of cameras, the questions were all about the pressure he would feel to secure Ohio – which twice went for George W. Bush, but voted for Obama in 2008 – back toward Republicans.
"I already feel the pressure," he finally confided in a moment of candor before diving into a boiler plate answer about the enthusiasm he's seeing in the state.
Al Behrman / AP
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney shakes hands with Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, after Portman introduced Romney at a campaign stop at Jet Machine, Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012, in Cincinnati.
Portman was the subject of so much “veepstakes” speculation precisely because of the possibility that he could help deliver his home state for the Republican ticket.
Even though Romney tapped Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan instead, Portman said his burden is no less heavy. When asked how much pressure he feels now with polls showing a dead heat just days before the election, Portman simply said, “A lot.”
The freshman senator is deeply involved in Romney’s Ohio operation, a commitment that extends far beyond his public appearances at rallies with the former Massachusetts governor. Portman has an intense interest in grassroots campaigning and checks in with Buckeye State staff multiple times each day with questions about how many door knocks and phone calls have been made. It will make the difference, he feels, in a close race.
The pressure to deliver Ohio, Portman says, comes not only from the fact that a Republican winning the presidency is almost certainly dependent on winning this state, but also from his concern that a second term for Obama will mean four more years of gridlock in Congress.
If Republicans pull off a victory here, Romney staff will point to Portman as a big reason why. He’ll become more than the man who helped the GOP nominee win a debate. He’ll become the man who helped Romney win Ohio – and quite possibly the presidency.
Romney advisers are quick to cite Portman’s thorough knowledge of the state, but Ohio Republicans point to the personal relationships he’s built over the years as invaluable. Those relationships – with county chairs or part-time volunteers – can motivate supporters to make phone calls and knock doors simply as a favor to their down-to-earth senator.
Portman solidified many of those relationships during his 2010 Senate campaign, and he is leaning on those supporters to do now for Romney what they did for him in 2010. (Many of those relationships were even forged well before 2010, during Portman’s time as a congressman and during his involvement with the Bush campaigns in the state.)
"We're using our folks…We're telling them, ‘Look, this is important to me,’ and most of them jumped in on the primary and all of them are helping now,” said Portman. “So we've kept our network up from our campaign two years ago and we know these people are reliable, we know they're really effective campaigners.”
Bob Paduchik, who ran Portman’s campaign two years ago, said much of the senator’s electoral success can be attributed to his understanding of the importance of retail politics. While Portman remains largely unknown as a national political figure, many of those who are running call centers are familiar with him on a personal level because of his commitment to the ground game.
Portman’s value extends to campaign surrogacy, too. The Ohio senator is keenly aware of Romney’s vulnerability on the 2009 auto industry bailout in a state where the industry accounts for an estimated one in eight jobs. In recent days, Portman has stepped forward to defend Romney on the topic of the bailout, an issue which has re-emerged in the closing days of the campaign.
"It's the policies that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan want to put in place that are going to be good for the auto industry that are going to make it strong," Portman said at a rally in Avon Lake, Ohio on Monday. "To make sure that it stays in Ohio."
But Portman’s focus on the campaign’s nuts-and-bolts might be his greatest asset, and there are signs that his emphasis is paying dividends. Romney volunteers in Ohio have knocked on more than 2 million doors this election cycle, a number they tout as one of the highest among the swing states.
"They all know Rob. He's brought them coffee and donuts, he's brought them pizza," said Paduchik. “He’s like the general that gets out among the troops, it really inspires people."
Just last week Portman did exactly that during four stops to Victory Centers throughout Northeast Ohio. In Avon Lake, OH, he profusely apologized for not having enough donuts for the larger than expected crowd.
“I have found in my own campaigns that when you lose sight of the grassroots, you tend to lose,” he said while traveling between stops.
That emphasis on the ground game is also why Portman has been in such constant contact with Romney’s Ohio State Director, Scott Jennings.
“He's like an idea factory of how to get more volunteers into a victory center or how to get an issue in front of the press in a particular county,” said Jennings. “He constantly has strategic thinking that is invaluable.”
Portman’s role has led to an uncommon situation in which not being selected as VP has freed Portman up to help the nominee in other ways that may prove more beneficial.
“No matter what happened, I was going to pour my heart into this,” he said, dismissing the notion.
Win, lose or draw, the consensus from Romney’s high command is that they it will be a much closer battle because the state’s Republican senator has been standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Romney throughout the campaign.
“What [Portman] has is a passion for Ohio. It's hard to quantify just how valuable that is to us,” said senior Romney adviser Kevin Madden. “He's more than just a good host through Ohio- he's a fierce advocate for Ohio.”
NBC's Garrett Haake contributed reporting.
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HAHAHA!
Never let them see you sweat Robbie!
The mere fact that Willard has tripled down on his blatent lie about Chrysler only validates their anxiety over losing OH!
Just think, this time next week we will be celebrating a second term for President Obama!
Get used to it! ;o)
Portman should run and hide. :)
The republicans have given "Portman" some 20 ways to steal that state. Unfortunately, none of 'em are of any use against a gang of "Auto Workers" armed with lug wrenches. Romneys crowd will suck the Presidents smoke in Ohio.
Sure, it would be real scary to see Portman dressed as an Etch A Sketch for Halloween doing a heavy lift!!!
4 more 4 44
Obama/Biden 2012
Romney's not too bright. Nobody likes a liar.
The auto ad speaks volumes about their campaign's desperation.
He insults the middle classes with that kind of garbage.
They will not vote for Romney.
Hey Portman explain this Photo Op:
Romney Campaign Bought Supplies To Give To Red Cross Which Only Accepts Money
Team Romney didn’t want to be caught making the same mistake they have made throughout his campaign — shoot first and don’t even bother to ask questions or correct the record later — as they did on September 11 this year when we were attacked in Egypt and Libya.
Team Romney took campaign contributions and used them to buy supplies — water, canned goods, and blankets — to use as photo op props, then forced the Red Cross to take them, rather than just taking that cash and giving it to the Red Cross.
Romney today “spoke while standing in front of a bank of tables where campaign volunteers had neatly lined up toothpaste, diapers, canned food and fleece blankets, among other goods,” an AP story at Salon.com reports:
http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/photo-op-romney-campaign-bought-supplies-to-give-to-red-cross-which-only-accepts-money/politics/2012/10/30/52659
The choice should be "CLEAR" by now to the undecided. MYTH is a fraud. He's Liar . He may have commiteed voter fraud when he voted during the Olympics. He is sending his goons out to lie about voting.
MYTH is not fit for the Oval Office period!!!
4 more 4 44
Obama/Biden 2012
Portman under pressure..LOL…What, I thought Willard was telling everyone how he had the election locked up…in the last debate he said “When I’m President”…. Guess it will be a rude awakening when Willard wakes to find out that he lost and it can be contributed to lies, no transparency and no agenda on what he will do when President other than make the rich richer!!!! – GOOD LUCK PORTMAN as 60% of the state already voted for OBAMA!!!!
Another pointless article that spammers use as fodder to try and ram their ideology down people's throats. Romney is winning this election despite the left leaning polls that claim he only has a 30% chance of winning.
I wonder what all the pollsters, spammers, and nay-sayers are gonna do once Romney wins by huge margins next week. 6 days Mr. president. The storm wiped a lot out, but it didn't wipe out your failed record. People remember.
Except all the polls show exactly the opposite of what you guys are saying. It's this ugly name calling smear campaign of Obama's that is turning everyone off. It is going to be so fantastically ironic to see Obama unemployed in a few months.
Yup,them republicans lie about lying then lie about those lies while they make up a new lie about lying about lies.Even your biased msnbs cant find those lies you keep spewing about,better run the race card instead-oops nope that ones been ran into the ground too.Crawl back into your hole its time for a real leader to take charge not someone who blames everything from the wind to his own failed policies on someone/something else.
Hey Fishy Smelling Redhead,...You're nuts!, Put down the vat of kool-aid you're obviously funneling
ROMNEY IS LEADING BY 2 POINTS IN OHIO 50% to 48%
...
Exactly the way Fiesty,beverly, etc etc post on here makes me glad I'm not a lib I know one thing right before their heads explode they'll be huggin the porcelain god!!!
Gallup - Romney 48 - Obama 48
amoung likely voters - Romney 51 - Obama 46
Rasmussen - Romney 49 - Obama 47
It's closer than most libbies want to admit. So go ahead and spew your hatred for Romney/Ryan but remember to have respect when you call him President Romney. I know it is asking quite a bit for respect from a left wing nut job but it is worth a try.
I really don't think it is even that close. I say it is going to be a shellacking like the 2010 elections. Won't that be funny?
1/20/2013 - the end of an error
There is no pressure here.
The real pressure is on Obama to try to defend his dismal record and complete failure as a President.
What am I talking about? Here are a few issues, just to get started:
jobs ---- where are they?
housing situation ---- filled with foreclosures and people under water on their mortgages
national debt ---- 16 trillion and still counting, but who cares right?
yearly national deficit spending of 1 trillion plus (yes every year from Obama)
education ---- when compared to the rest of the world, it is an embarrassment
health care ---- have you looked at the cost of healthcare lately? (don't worry, you'll be dumped on Medicaid soon)
Social Security ---- plans to end it's insolvency? Don't think so.
Medicare ---- don't worry, Obama just cuts massively from it to pay for his other escapades
gas prices ---- just air up your tires and Obama will release some strategic reserve if needed
Michael Brown, Of 'Heckuva Job' Fame, Says Obama Reacted Too Fast To Hurricane Sandy
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/ex-fema-director-michael-brown-criticizes-obama-reacting-202803013.html
Okay, Portman explain that. While you're at it explain why MYTH won't answer questions about eliminating FEMA. MYTH was only asked 14 times. Can you take the pressure?
I doubt it.
4 more 4 44
Obama/Biden 2012
You should know Feisty. Bet you are sweating now.
Remember Benghazi.
ROMNEY/RYAN 2012
Dont_carry_it_all
Romney's not too bright. Nobody likes a liar.
The auto ad speaks volumes about their campaign's desperation.
He sure is; Dont_carry_it_all
Look at who he's afraid of.
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mcralo5SDj1rpldkxo1_500.jpg
4 more 4 44
Obama/ Biden 2012
Ticked of in Ohio -
Source please? Which poll shows Romney up by two points? The latest polls have Pres. Obama up by 2-5 points, and WAY ahead in early voting.
I live in Ohio, by the way, and if you are 'ticked off' you must not work for the auto industry or know anyone who does.
Are you really John Boehner?
Wow Beverly, worst defense ever. That's another thing I find funny. Back when Katrina hit, all the lefties hated FEMA. Now that they can use FEMA as a cudgel against Romney, they all of the sudden love it?
Can anyone say hypocrisy?
http://johndoe2241225.newsvine.com/_news/2012/10/31/14817434-fema-a-love-hate-relationship
Romney has no prayer in Ohio and will lose this President bid. This is because he told the Auto industry to go bankrupt and FU to the hundreds of thousands of Ohio workers. It is like everything else he says, the first thing out of Mitt's mouth is the absolute truth how he feels, then he twists and spins backtracking to get aligned to what people want to hear.
I live in Ohio Mr. Romney and people are just not that stupid here as you think. Start with CareerBuilder for your next occupational desire as that is a great site. We suggest to begin with Funeral Director as you fit the job with the companies your buried for profit.
Ok...now just the democrats.....
NAH NAH NAH NAH.....NAH NAH NAH NAH.....HEY HEY HEY.....GOODBYE!!!!
BYE BYE OBAMA!!!
...
And best of all -when Romney loses Ohio (and Wisconsin!) and the election- everyone will blame Willard for not choosing Portman for VP instead of the now discredited lightweight Ryan. The knives will come out on the 7th- it is going to be just too delicious.
I think it is quite obvious that Portman is looking at a major role in a Romney presidency. Perhaps chief of staff? Maybe Sec. of State? Hmmm. He's not just doing this at of the goodness of his heart that's for sure. This is definitely a bromance on steroids.
The Nixon Lies in Reverse - Lie before you even touch the white house loud enough so everyone can hear you lie. Then tell the same lie again and again and again.
You're not terribly bright, are you, John Doe? There's a difference between hating the failure of FEMA (led by that towering paragon of efficiency, "Bownie") to act swiftly and follow up with a rational plan vs. hating FEMA itself.
Much has been done (by Obama) to "right" FEMA since those days.
Mitt Rommel did not take Porkman as VP ...but wanted his help in Ohio?
Typical vulture behavior.
Ha! Obama is leading in Ohio by 5 points according to latest CBS news poll. Chrysler Chief calls latest Romney ad "unnecessary fantasy" (my interpretation of that statement: A Damn Lie)
Romney is making moves out of Ohio because he now has to win at least Michigan and Colorado or Pennsylvania and Colorado once he loses Ohio. Penn is blue to be sure and Michigan is the only hope with Colorado. It's looking like four more for 44.
Fired up and Ready to go (did my early voting today too!) Woot!
Listen my friends
And you will see,
What King Obama
Has done to you and me.
On January twentieth
Two thousand and nine,
He took control
We started our decline
.
With record unemployment
And people forlorn,
Our tax money spent
Poverty the Norm.
With free phones for some
And EBT cards too,
The lazy ones come
Freebies from me and you.
On November the sixth
Two thousand and twelve,
You must go vote
Or were going to hell.
The country deserves better
Than the King and Moochele
,America must survive
And ring the liberty bell.
John D. USN 71-77
John Doe-2241225
Wow Beverly, worst defense ever. That's another thing I find funny. Back when Katrina hit, all the lefties hated FEMA. Now that they can use FEMA as a cudgel against Romney, they all of the sudden love it?
Can anyone say hypocrisy?
John Q Public
Michael Of 'Heckuva Job' Brownie F**Ked UP. Bush was enjoying birthday cake with McCain and strumming a guitar while the people of Katrina suffered.
See
http://www.iraqtimeline.com/gr...
http://www.grupo-utopia.com/bl...
Get Serious FEMA didn't run well when Bush was running it!!!
That world wind you crackpots call Benghazi-gate is something that WILL blow back in your faces. Real Americans don't want to hear anymore about it until the investigations are over. Every stupid thing you right wing morons do is what is going to cause MYTH to lose the election; including rigging votes and sending goon squads around to lie about the date of the election.
Americans are sick of your witch hunts. Ditto Jeeps, Solyandra, and "Fast & Furious. In fact, the next sequel to your witch hunts will be you losing the election.
4 more 4 44
Obama/Biden 2012
mike - your post was idiotic yesterday and it's no better today.
Obama/Biden 2012
Mike I am embarrassed for you. You are such a lazy conservative! Don't you get tired of copy and paste? Do you not have anything of substance to add to any conversation? Come on, buddy, at least work up some effort on behalf of your fellow Republicans!
Obama/Biden 2012 "OH, YES WE WILL!"
Can anyone say hypocrisy?
"Did you hear Christie?" "Did you hear Christie?" "New BFF!" "New BFF!"
ROMNEY/RYAN 2012 with REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR CHRIS CHRISTIE for REAL leadership
mike-2598123
On November the sixth
Two thousand and twelve,
You must go vote
Or were going to hell.
WRONG: Quite frankly people are scared of Romney…
These are MYTH's messages:
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mcro80Tk861rduqafo1_400.jpg
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mcro49V48y1qexh9to1_500.jpg
4 more 4 44
Obama/Biden 2012
SeekingSanity
mike - your post was idiotic yesterday and it's no better today.
Obama/Biden 2012
You've got show horses, work horses and one trick ponies. The last one applies to Mike.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. See daily tracking history.
Sixteen percent (16%) of white Democrats now support Romney.
The race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes remains very close, but now Mitt Romney now has a two-point advantage.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided.
New surveying Monday night finds Romney ahead of the president 50% to 47% in the key swing state of Colorado.
In Wisconsin, surveying from Monday night finds the race remains tied at 49%, just like last week.
...
Ticked off, the Rasmussen Ohio poll is the only one of the last 12 polls at RealClearPolitics that shows Romney with the lead. The other 11 all show Obama in front.
Oh, and Rasmussen always leans to the Right. They also only use landlines, which means they miss out on a lot of younger voters, who only use cell phones.
But, you had to really, really reach to pick that one cherry. Nice job. If I ever need to find a needle in a haystack, I'll give you a call, OK?
Just what we would need, another Bush era appointee. And Portman was in charge of OMB when Bush tanked the budget. What would Romney do, have him run the Treasury into the ground ?
Bev -- Thanks for the chuckle with that link to the cartoon! That's funny!
Bwahhhh ha ha. Rasmussen has Romney up by two points? Translation: Obama up by 2.5 points in Rasmussen since Rasmussen skews Republican by 4.5 points on average in any given state poll. Boy you guys are gonna be hot with Fox, Rasmussen and all the other snake oil salesmen on nov 7.
"Why didn't you just tell us the truth so we could put up a real fight"
Stay thirsty my friend...
Auntie Fascist - yep and Mike's one trick is soooooo old!
Obama/Biden 2012
Hey Ticked off,
Try to use a poll that doesn't LEAN right...
In the NBC/WSJ survey from September 26-30, Obama narrowly led Romney 49-46 percent amongst likely voters, but by a 51-44 percent margin amongst registered voters. In their October 17-20th polling, the NBC/WSJ polling showed the race tied at 47 percent amongst likely voters, but Obama ahead 49-44 percent amongst registered voters.
Like THESE FACTS...LOL.... by the way... what will be nice is after Willard loses he will have ended his political career as the nice thing about the right is that it's one shot and out... they don't waste their time with losers!!!!! BYE BYE WILLARD!!!!
One things for sure...after the election Rasmussen will be very rich for predicting the election when 12 other pollsters are wrong or very broke and embarrassed because 12 other pollsters were right. put your money where your mouth is...check Intrade and follow the "who is right" trail.
Good luck
I wouldn't believe anything Romnesia says, all his talk is based on lies, voters we don't need a liar in the White House !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Republican Rep. John Boehner and Republican Ohio Governor John Kasich has offered very little support for the Romney campaign?
As an Ohio resident, Ive taken note, that Ive seen no ads with these two republicans supporting Romney for President.
Why is that?
Gallup yesterday shows Romney leading Obama in the early vote by a full seven points, 52-45%. Almost exactly four years ago (October 28, 2008), according to Gallup, Obama was massacring John McCain among early voters with a fifteen-point lead, 55-40%. That means, at least according to Gallup, that Obama's early vote advantage has dropped 22 points when compared to '08.
In the last three releases of the tracking poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, Obama has trailed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among independent voters by between 16 and 20 percentage points.
That's a striking reversal from 2008, when Obama won independent voters, who made up 29 percent of the electorate, by eight points over Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
"In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama's 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
Romney has now led for 12 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin."
"Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Romney and 48% say the same of Obama."
n 2008, the Democrats had a 39-29 (D+10) advantage in hard party ID, and a 54-42 (D+12) advantage with leaners. In 2012 though, we're in the post-TEA party era. Republicans now show a 36-35 (R+1) hard party ID advantage, and a 49-46 (R+3) lead with leaners. This gives us a range of party ID swings from 2008, from R+11 to R+15.
I made this comment in another seed but it is what I believe to be sooooo important I want to share it here also. A monster of a lie in Ohio is that team Romney, Murray Energy of Ohio and the ignorant workers who accuse the Obama campaign of lying about how Murray forced their workers to stand behind Romney without pay. Was Romney's speech at the mine during what would have been normal operating hours and or were the workers paid for that time? No! Liars! The whole lot of you! Murray did force them to stand behind Romney because they are one of the many companies that have stated and I quote "if Obama is re-elected, there will be layoffs". So they did stand behind Romney during normal operating and did not get paid for that time off. 500 employees have supposedly made a signed petition and a political tv airtime plug that accuses Team Obama of lying about it all. Every one of those supposed 500 signatures on the petition is signed proof of political perjury. Congratulations boys. What is your honor going to be worth the next time? You all lied for a lowlife company like Murray Energy and that drops you below that which is scum! Republicans? This is your show of honor for working class Americans. Sell outs! The whole lot of you!
ok ticked off in Ohio, if you're correct, after the election I'll buy a Chinese Chrysler. If you're wrong you have to go live there. Ok?
Ticked off.... we'll know who the winner and loser is in 6 days... only thing I know for sure is that if Willard wins then America will be the LOSER!!!!!
Halloween + Romnesia = Rubberhead !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ticked off...you say your from OHIO???? guess you are one of those who believe that Jeep is closing down there plants here in the US and sending them over to China even though Jeep claims that such claims are LIES!!! Guess you don't let the small stuff, like lies, change your opinion from voting for country over party or is it voting for the "White" guy over the "Black" guy!
OOOOOO, be careful there Bobby, if Ohio goes Obama you better be expecting to be thrown under the R bus or shoveling elephant poo for months.
Ticked off is wrong once again. . .
According to The Coshocton Tribune [10/31/12], "President Obama holds a 5-point lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio, and the two candidates remain very close in Virginia and Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters.
Obama leads by 50% to 45% in Ohio, the state many analysts believe will decide the election; that's the same margin he had in the same poll on Oct. 22."
Since you're from Ohio, Ticked, I bet you know exactly where COSHOCTON is.
MOST. ACCURATE. POLL. DATA. *EVER*.
Nate Silver's blog at the NYT doesn't "cherry-pick" polls - we aggregates ALL (ie, 100%) of the polls . . . his goal is ACCURACY . . . he doesn't care who wins, he just wants to call it correctly, so he is non-partisan.
.
Last night he upped the odds of President Obama winning, dramatically:
President Obama now has a 77.4% chance of getting 299 Electoral College votes
His chances of willing OH: 77.6%
His chances of willing WISC: 88.1
His chances of willing VA: 62%
His chances of willing NH: 75.4
His chances of winning Mass: 100%
His chances of winning PA: 95.4
His chances of willing NEV: 83%
His chances of willing Colo: 61%
He will probably lose NC & FL, but it doesn't matter.
.
His chances of winning the popular vote: 75%
.
.
So all of the Rethuglican attempts to BUY the Vote, to do voter intimidation & suppression, to shut down early voting, to lie . . . . have COST Myth Robme & Lyin' Ryan any chance of winning this election.
.
A Vote for O & Joe is a vote AGAINST Citizen's United & the idea that voters can be BOUGHT & SOLD!
Updated as of 2:00pm EST on Wednesday, October 31 (Happy Halloween!):
Real Clear Politics (RCP) is consistently cited by both FOXNEWS and NBCNEWS as a current source for reliable averaged polling data at every level of American politics.
RCP continues to consider the following eleven states, listed in descending order of electoral votes, as "toss-up": Florida (FL), Pennsylvania (PA), Ohio (OH), Michigan (MI), North Carolina (NC),Virginia (VA), Colorado (CO), Wisconsin (WI), Iowa IO), Nevada (NV) and New Hampshire (NH).
With only 130 hours left in the 2012 presidential campaign, Obama leads in seven of the toss-ups, Romney leads in three, and in CO the candidates remain in a tie.
In descending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Obama, followed in ascending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Romney, here are the published averaged numbers from RCP as of 2:00pm EST together with the most recent FiveThirtyEight election night probabilities of victory for either candidate:
.
In PA, with 20 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 4.6%, down slightly from yesterday's 4.7%.
Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 95.4% chance of winning PA, up from yesterday's 94.2%.
.
In MI, with 16 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 3.0%, down from yesterday's 4.0%.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 97.9% chance of winning MI, down slightly from yesterday's 98.1%.
.
In NV, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 2.4%.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 82.8% chance of winning NV, up significantly from yesterday's 79.7%.
.
In OH, with 18 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.4%, up from yesterday's 2.1%.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 77.6% chance of winning OH, up significantly from yesterday's 73.3%.
.
In WI, with 10 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 2.3%.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 88.1% chance of winning WI, up significantly from yesterday's 85.7%.
.
In NH, with 4 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 1.0%, down from yesterday's 2.0%.
However, FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 75.4% chance of winning NH, up significantly from yesterday's 70.3%.
.
In IO, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 1.0%, down from yesterday's 2.3%.
However, FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 74.4% chance of winning IO, up from yesterday's 73.9%.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
In CO, with 9 electoral votes, the race remains tied.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 60.7% chance of winning CO, up significantly from yesterday's 55.4%.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
In VA, with 13 electoral votes, Romney's lead has risen to 0.5%, up from yesterday's tie.
However, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 61.8% chance of winning VA, up significantly from yesterday's 57.8%.
.
In FL, with 29 electoral votes, Romney's lead has fallen to 1.0%, down from yesterday's 1.3%.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 59.3% chance of winning FL, down significantly from yesterday's 64.7%.
.
In NC, with 15 electoral votes, Romney's lead has risen to 3.3%, up from yesterday's 3.0%.
FiveThirtyEight gives Romney an 82.0% chance of winning NC, up from yesterday's 81.4%.
.
All in all, while Romney's position in toss-up state polling has improved more than Obama's over the past 48 hours, his chances of winning in the majority of these states has declined. This is a function of Romney losing his race against the clock in PA, MI, NH, and IO, in that the rate at which he is tugging at Obama's lead in these states is not quick enough to swing the state into his column.
At the same time, in the state where Romney needs desperately to win, OH, Obama's lead has been widening over the past two days; conversely, in the state where Romney needs desperately to hold onto his lead, FL, that lead has been eroding over the same period.
So...
In order for Obama to win re-election, the least complex route appears to be through maintaining his current lead in the five toss-up states where his existing margins are widest, PA, MI, NV, OH, and WI. Doing so would bring his electoral vote total on Election Day to 271. In this scenario, Obama could still surpass 270 while failing to hold either IO or NH.
However, should Obama fail to hold OH, the loss could effectively be neutralized by any of the following combination of wins from states where FiveThirtyEight is currently predicting Obama victories:
Path #1: Obama loses OH but wins IO, NH, and CO resulting in 272 electoral votes.
Path #2: Obama loses OH but wins VA and NH resulting in 270 electoral votes.
Path #3: Obama loses OH but wins VA and IO resulting in 272 electoral votes.
Path #4: Obama loses OH but wins VA and CO resulting in 275 electoral votes.
With Romney's lead having diminished significantly in FL over the past two weeks and with Hurricane Sandy forcefully highlighting the stark contrast between Obama and Romney regarding the value, necessity, and mere existence of FEMA in a state which has perhaps the greatest dependence on federal storm relief efforts in the country, a 5th path has suddenly appeared on the horizon which could provide for some interesting election night television:
Path #5: Obama loses OH, IO, NH, and WI while failing to capture VA and CO but comes from behind to steal FL resulting in 272 electoral votes.
.
It should be noted regarding Paths #1 and #2 that there remains some question as to the accuracy of the RCP polling numbers in NH which still include in their average a recent 'outlier' finding from UNH which had Obama leading by a questionable 9.0%.
For Romney to unseat Obama, he not only would have to hold the three states in which he presently leads, FL, NC, and VA bringing his electoral vote total to 248, but also steal a victory in CO where his lead fell from 0.4% on Friday to that of dead heat and in OH where Obama's lead this morning rose to 2.4%. By so doing, Romney's electoral vote total would reach 275.
Should Romney take CO and VA but fail to take OH, he could overcome this shortfall by stealing WI and either IO or NH, resulting respectively in an electoral vote total of 273 or 271.
In either scenario, however, Romney must hold FL at all costs.
FiveThirtyEight, at present, estimates the chance of Election Day victory for each candidate as follows: Obama 77.4% - Romney 22.6%. FiveThirtyEight also projects that on Election Day the final electoral tally will be as follows: Obama 299 - Romney 239. Lastly, although it makes no difference in terms of the final result which can only be determined by the Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight currently predicts a national popular vote
distribution on Election Day as follows: Obama 50.4% - Romney 48.5%.
With only 130 hours of campaigning left, this one is going to come down to the wire….and quite possibly, in a few of the closest toss-up states, to the October jobs report which because of Hurricane Sandy may be delayed from a scheduled Friday release to the following Monday, one day before the election.
Let's hope that Election Day is free of both voter fraud and voter intimidation and that eligible voters who have registered in good faith over the past six months are in fact able to vote on November 6; let's also hope that vote tabulation itself is performed honestly and accurately by both the election commissions and private corporations to whom this essential role is being entrusted.
In any case, it will be interesting to watch as election night unfolds.
All of this spin from Team Romney is just more of that same ole Republican Union Busting bullsh1t! All Republicans don't want to give working class Americans a level playing field period. And that goes for idiots who are shooting themselves and everyone else in the foot by voting Republican!
HEY WHAT???
THE COSHOCTON TRIBUNE???? YOU GET YOUR PRESIDENTIAL POLLING NUMBERS THERE????
Sunday Circulation: 5,101; Readership: 12,701
HAAHAHAHHAAAAHAHHAAAHAHAAAAAAA!!!!
THAT'S SOME FUNNY $HIT THERE!!!
rather ironic, while loading the truck with canned goods the top republicans dodged questions about the future existence of FEMA. Romney had the lead stupidest grin on his "puss" of all the other squatters who bumbled their way through the crass photo op. This must have been like the time romney and his squat friends at his "prep" school looked and acted like just before they shaved some poor kids head. This man is not a leader of a nation, romney is a dodger of important questions and a dodger of the draft. a leader of also rans who cowardly dodge's any conviction to anything!
Romney peaked two weeks too soon.......
It's funny to me that you're knocking on the Coshocton Tribune when small town newspapers tend to be very conservative. Shows how much conservatives are out of touch with their own constituency until you remember that they spin everything so phucking much they don't know which end is up anymore! Same with the Republican Party all together especially now that they have the Teapublican freshman cuisinarting the crap out of their standard everyday spin zone.
Romney once again throws GM and Chrysler under the bus.
How many good Republicans will believe his lies and stop buying GM and Chrysler products?
Romney hurts GM and Chrysler with his lies. What did they do to deserve this treatment and the likely boycott of their vehicles by some true believing Romneyites?
They returned to profit and they expanded their American work force. What else?
Romney is so desperate, he will even throw American automaking icons under the bus. I am so disgusted with Romney. He is pathetic. He is a liar. He represents the worst of America.
That was because, before he even got there he said the event was about disaster relief only, and he was not going to answer political questions. What's sad to me about this story is that some reporters couldn't stop playing politics for a bit to help those in need.
Ron! you voted for romney, enough said. how do you defend a draft dodger who turned his back on this country, and now seeks to be commander in chief. and reporters are their for a reason. seeking common sense truth from answers that people want to know.
[Romney peaked two weeks too soon.......]
Who are we kidding...Romney peaked in 2008. He just happened to be the best of the worst as far as GOP nominees go...after all, he's "severely conservative" dontcha know.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Romney to Portman: SICK 'EM!
Portman: ...meow...
Romney: "...sigh..."
Ron.
What we have seen in the last 2 days is the measure of a leader…. Obama has taken the reins of this disaster and shown the country that government and its programs and agencies can work efficiently when you have LEADERS! Unlike Bush, who hires an Arabian horse judge to head FEMA and when Katrina hit (after a week of advance warnings) we saw confusion, hysteria and mass loss of life and that is what you get when you put events like this let alone that fate of a nation in the hands of people who have no idea what to do (other than hold a political event guised as a relief effort)let alone what they even stand for which is absolutely NOTHING other than more prosperity for the rich!!!!
This is the difference between a leader and a laggard, leadership and incompetency and now we see the difference between the Democrats and Republicans, Republicans stand around and complain that the mess they created wasn't fixed fast enough, they create and use the suffering of others to score political points but offer no solutions or even legislation to ease that suffering, they are the incompetent laggards of our society ( now that should just piss off those of you on the right) - Guess the TRUTH does hurt...LOL!!!
I can not believe the number of Romney and anti-Obama signs I've seen today in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Traveling on business and I think the polls must be totally fabricated. People in both states seems very pro-Romney and fed up with Obama's failure to produce jobs.
Mother Cluster Duck,
Ron did NOT vote for Bill, AKA, Chicken Willie, Clinton.
Just another flip flop executed so well it should have won him a Gold Medal in the Olympics!
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/national-politics/20121031-romney-faces-scrutiny-over-aid-in-superstorm-s-wake.ece
I live in Ohio I'm a 54 year old white male and I don't believe a word he says. There should be a law against lying to people (knowingly as he does) to get votes. Shame on you for voting for this so called religious man! Is this how the Mormon Church programs it's cult members?
I have a family member that works for a large automobile manufacturing company and has been employed there for 15 years. She just learned that her health care premium will increase by 50% - no need to tell you that all of the workers in this plant are mad as hell. Guess who they are voting for......
For the love of GAWD!
Will someone feed the FR GREMLINS???
So bubblegum doesn't seem to be working? ;-)
Neither does Juicy Fruit! ;o)
Wow Fiesty, you've got all sorts of great silly names to call the candidates today. Still no intelligent comments or logical reasons to vote for Obama though. Which makes me think you should be running his campaign.
Every single poll I've see in the last 48 hours has President Obama up in Ohio.
I haven't had a minute to go through this morning's articles and posts as yet, so if someone has already posted this, I apologize:
The Romney campaign spent $5,000 at WalMart buying goods before the relief photo shoot yesterday. Because they were afraid once the cameras showed up, they wouldn't have much to show for their photo op.
Portman was at least smart enough to stay away from being the VP pick......Lyin Ryan not to smart!
Pocket change Pat! lol
Then, they handed the peanut butter & Starkist to the sheep who attended making it appear these people brought it themselves!
Reminds me on the RNC dropping $175K to "glamor" the Palin klan for their photo ops!
Lipstick on pigs and all...
Victory Centers? ... sheesh ... now where oh where is my stack of PBS Victory Garden VHS tapes.
Cabbage Head/Broccoli Head - 20whatever.
The Romney campaign spent $5K at WalMart buying stuff for hurricane victims. That by itself isn't so bad (although the Red Cross has said it prefers cash). But then it pretends that Romney supporters brought the stuff and they collected it. That is just so sad. Romney seems like a plastic person and this is plastic, too. They usually get the optics wrong but it is worse when they try to get the optics right and still get them wrong.
@Travisaurus
You give me one reason anyone especially women should vote of Robme & lyin Ryan?
I will rip any reason you give apart.
Romney also encouraged his supporters to donate canned food to the local Romney Office or directly to the Red Cross!!
The Red Cross specifically states it does NOT want to store, sort and transport canned food or other items - they prefer cash.
Mitt Munster scares people ... only tricks no treats..bad vulture. Porkman is not happy for the snub for the VP spot - Porkman will not help.
Great question that is never, ever answered by the supporters of Robme & Lyin Ryan!
chilled: the Republicons don't answer questions anymore. The debates are over, so now they can spin out their own version of reality. In their world, saving an industry equals liquidating it. In their world, adding 1100 more jobs equals shipping the jobs overseas.
I'll say this much, Chris Christie gained my respect this week when he said, "Do you think I give a damn about Presidential politics. I have a job to do." When a reporter asked about him meeting with Romney. THAT is the difference between being a real governor and just using the office for one term as a stepping stone to try to win the White House.
in the moment i give christie his due. but, on the inside of his hat looms a date with 2016.
And next week, we will throw Willard into the recycle bin!
I can not believe the number of Romney and anti-Obama signs I've seen today in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Traveling on business and I think the polls must be totally fabricated.
People in both states seems very pro-Romney.
.
That's the most coherent thing you've ever posted.
Got those resumes going, Jen?
When people have to work in a hostile work environment, constantly harassed by pigs and others, it's better to stay home or immigrate to Canada
Canada has always welcomed Americans seeking freedom or good beer.
blackcatwhitecat, and your National Anthem is so much easier to sing [besides not having references to rockets and bombs]. We, across the little pond called Erie, salute you!
Hahahaha...thanks, blackcatwhite....I am nuts about beer..I'm a beerNut. And as you all know, a typical pig is always drunk.
I'll give Portman some credit. He did an excellent job of prepping Willard for the first debate and he has helped Willard in Ohio. The question I have is will Portman be able to wash the stench of Willard off of himself when this is over? Will Portman be forever tied to Willard's deperate lies about GM and Chrysler outsourcing US jobs. Will Portman, by association, be viewed as petty and small during a time of crisis like Willard has been?
And if Ohio goes to Obama; what then?
Portman was G. W. Bush's budget director, and he helped direct the US economy onto the rocks. He needs to wash that stench off, too.
The funny thing to me is that people still speak derisively of President Obama as "community organizer" (as if that is something to be ashamed of). Yet in the unlikely event that Romney does win Ohio, it will be because of Portman's organization.
I agree, Al. I believe that there will be many "casualties" on the Romney team after this is over. Man I wish this was over! But then again, since Republicans do not believe that their candidate is lying about anything, they may just go with that kind of head in the sand mentality and Portman will be seen as an outstanding surrogate with a very bright future in the GOP.
I met Mr. Portman a few years back (when he was not campaigning for anything) and he is a very nice man. Not voting for his guy, but he was very nice to me.
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for contributing the most thoughtful comment you could muster. Did you hold down the exclamation point key or actually push it a thousand times. You make your party proud.
lol... someone sounds bitter, and it isn't J. :)
I agree Pedestrian! Bitterness is very bad for the digestive system, as well as impeding one's mental wellness. Just thinking about your health there, Trav!
Obama/Biden 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Obama's so-called lead in Ohio polls have dem+ leanings of up to 8 points. It also has independants down, and that's where Romney will win.
This time next week, Cousin Pookie will be on the couch guzzling Colt 45's.
Precinct by Precinct tallies show that republican areas are up and democrat areas are down. Should this continue, the Romney wins with a 19 point advantage in the independent vote.
Here is some of what Q is doing wrong:
They are assuming a D+8 electorate- which conforms with CNN exit polling from 2008. The Census Bureau, however, which has access to much better data than exit polling, (anybody remember the Wisconsin recall? Too close to call for all of 45 minutes based on exit polling?), put the actual electorate in Ohio at D+5. The main reason for even that moderate spike in democratic turn out was lack of enthusiasm for the republican candidate- not likely to repeat in this election. In fact, the lack of enthusiasm seems to be on the side of the democratic candidate.
The other thing that is wrong with Q- and more than a few other polls, including Nate Silver's analysis, is the demographic element. Using Axelrod's "book"- the best case scenario for Obama- they are predicting even higher African American and Hispanic turnout-and a huge decline in white turn out.
Here again, CNN exit polling is the basis- polling which inflated both Afrocan American and Hispanic turnout beyond the Census Bureau's- and a steep decline in white turnout. In 2004, white voters comprised 79% of the electorate; in 2008, 1.7 million white voters decline to vote, dropping their share of the electorate to 76%, (these numbers are rounded). Axelrod is shopping white turnout of 72%.
It isn't going to happen.
Nate is taking polls and regressing them to Axelrod's numbers, then using that to weight the polls to where he believes they should be, based on his firm belief that Axelrod is some kind of seer. There is no logic, proof, or statistical analysis based on realistic expectations on which to base a belief in what Axelrod is selling- and I believe that, rather than hurt Romney, these polls showing the race "too close to call" will actually drive Romney voters.
It isn't going to help any of these pollster much, either.
*nods sagely*
Everyone is wrong except Rasmussen. You keep clinging to that.
Why does Obama a smart educated black man with degrees from Harvard and Columbia have to be guzzling colt 45 with pookie you are just plain racist and pitiful. Its not the polices you don't like its his skin color. Rommney is one of the biggest liars every to run for office and he is on record for being all over the place but I guess it doesn't matter because only black people lie. Get your white sheet ready and burn come crosses and hang your confederate flag because Obama's getting 4 more years. Its just crazy how people don't like this man because of the color of his skin, I wonder what you have to say about bush the worst liar and president in us history, let me guess he did no wrong, Obama made the economy crash, lied about to get us into a war and turned a budget surplus into a big huge debit
from your lips to the good Lord's ears! Nice try EBM but if you were truly educated you'd realize that BO won in 2008 with a large majority of white votes, but if the race card tucked safely under your pillow helps you sleep at night -- well whatever it takes. I care nothing of a color of a person's skin, it's what is under it that counts -- can you say the same?
NoJo
And your proof of this is? Feelings?
p.s. did you arrive at an answer to the math quiz I posted for you?
Obama Lies posts this nugget:
What does it mean?....Even more importantly why and what does it have to do with this thread?
That's a nice racist comment. Your party should be proud of your racial hatred.
President Obama 2012
But remember Solutions539, they say they ARE NOT racists!
....Liars yes......
Lying about not being racists!
Chilled, I think it might mean his cousin Pookie is going to drink herself blind if their boy Mitt doesn't bring home the bacon next Tuesday.
I'd try to guess what happens when his cousin gets drunk, but my stomach starts to flip when I think of it.
Banjos....I hear banjos. Dear God make it stop....
Ohio's Busken bakery cookie poll has Obama at 54% and Romney at 46%. Laugh if you want, it hasn't been wrong since introduced in 1992.
Cappy: the 7-11 poll has President Obama winning as well. Now I know it doesn't capture the crowd earning over $1,000,000 a month, but it has accurately predicted the winner in every election since it was started. BTW: does Mitt Romney even know what a Slurpee is ?
O-H-I-O
Can't win without it...
Both sides are sweating it out as the early voting really does "skew" every model their pollsters construct.
Portman can no more deliver the state than can Governor Romney, the incumbent, or their running mates...
It's up to the voters in O-H-I-O, and as they go...Yadda Yadda
For Obama, that would be O-I-H-O
Time magazine sent a survey to women in Arkansas, asking for their opinions on the Clinton Sex Scandal. One of the questions: Would you ever have an affair with Bill Clinton? The results were staggering!
5% — No
3% — Yes
92% — Never Again
I note that there no undecideds ...
Again, to the management;
I was told there would only be one comedian per thread...(but an unlimited # of hecklers...)
A homeless guy came up to me on the street, said he hadn't eaten in four days. I told him, "Man, I wish I had your willpower."
Leaving humor aside ... the homeless. Perhaps the cinema has distorted my view of underground New York. Many appear to live in its tunnels ... receding flood waters revealing?
Our subterranean population of al fresco Americans is somewhat overstated, and there have been no reports of fatalities that I know of concerning that group.
The storm has minted its own newly homleess;
My Friend's home in Breezy Point was destroyed...
We are a tough bunch here and trying to get back to normal, but for some things will never be the same.
When Obama wins Ohio again, will Rush Limbaugh change the theme song for his program? A, O Way To Go Ohio!
dangerfield: glad to hear you, personally, came through the storm not too much worse for the wear. Prayers go out to all who were impacted by Sandy.
I'll say one thing, gotta love Gov. Christie's dis of Romney. When it really counts, you get to see the kind of person you want in charge. Christie made everyone know, it ain't Romney.
Obama will NOT win in Ohio.
Portman to deliver Ohio. So Ohio loves GWBush? Ohio loves their next storm and the people of Ohio are going to pay for it? That's great for Ohio's economy. Ohio goes it alone. While fellow citizens are hit on the east coast Ohio is the backdrop for Romney's campaign. Romney bought $5,000 groceries for storm victims...wow he bet Rick Perry $10,000. Storm victims worth $5K and a Bet is worth $10K. That's what Americans are worth to gutless Mitt.
Let’s take a moment for some common sense evaluation to point out just one reality. Any candidate, from presidential on down, who stubbornly and combatively advocates the repeal of Obamacare should be critically evaluated. Why? Because they are declaring they are simply “puppets” controlled by limited interests and that they fail to responsibly consider constituents before politics. When Obamacare was being developed our representatives should have used bipartisanship to work together for a bill that provided real reform and responsibly satisfied the country’s needs. Instead the Republicans put their politics above all else, declared “they wouldn’t work with our president” and that “they would make health care reform his waterloo”, their actual words. Obama was forced to push a reform bill through in a partisan manner that no doubt could still use some fine tuning.
To now push for repeal, again puts politics above responsibilities and, while satisfying Special Interests and “the money”, it leaves the people dependent on those who didn’t want and fought reform to now enact something worthwhile. Their promises ring empty when they decline to refine what we have and what is already providing benefit, to instead go back to having nothing and to start over, leaving the people hoping for something of value. We have consistently seen too much of this, where politicians belligerently put their political ambitions above all else, at any cost to the people, and concentrate on stubbornly blocking and arrogantly faulting all efforts. They depend on the propaganda, with the considerable help of the power, influence and mega-millions of their strong supporters, to con the people and manipulate public opinion - no where in any of it is there any real consideration for the 99%, only deception aimed to benefit their politics and the 1%. In all of this they truly declare their priorities and clearly identify themselves; to now trust them would be self-delusional.
Finally....a voice of reason.....the public is so easily persuaded to fight against their own best interests....so easily convinced that the very things they like they cannot support....we have been asking for health care reform for 50 years!! We have been talking about the rising cost of health care which has been choking businesses and leaving more and more people behind for decades! Every President has TALKED about healthcare reform...but NO ONE has put forth a plan nevermind implementing one....except President Obama... it's a start...now before it's even started they want to cut it off....and replace it with what? ....in the wake of Hurricane Sandy it has become clear that America's infrastructure is not up to the task...that as storms become more and more prevalent and violent we need to build an infrastructure that can withsthand same...at the same time making America an attractive alternative in a global economy and providing jobs here...,good paying jobs....the bill has been stalled in CONGRESS for over two years! And why? Because Republicans (sad to say) have made defeating our President their top priority...not governing...but obstructing....it is time for sensible citizens to stop electing people to Congress and to State government who are not serving the public interest but only special interests...and as citizens we need to keep informed of what is passing for legislation in this country and what is being stalled or passed over.....the 99% need to start paying attention to something more than their national media outlets...and get an education which evidently many are trying to thwart in hopes that an ignorant uneducated populace will believe whatever they see on TV......Our President deserves another 4 years...and we deserve what we get if we don't stop chopping off our heads to spite our faces....
Romney will win Ohio by 2%. The Independents Rule in that state and they do not like the dirty politics Chicago style of Obama and his administration. Bunch of gangsters.
Hey but don't take my word, I'm a stupid,black, latina Independent. nicked name Blatina by Feisty. Thank you Feisty. Most Polls have Romney on top. Does that scare the wackos on the left? Judge for yourself by the ranting that they have been doing for the last couple of days.
Romney/Ryan 2012. Correct the mistake of 2008.
Most Polls have Romney on top(?)
--------------------------------------------
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
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The incumbent has the lead in 8 of 9 recent polls but is ahead by less than the MOE...
The President won in 2008
President Bush won in 2004
It is the prize in the Cracker Jack box for both kids, and neither one has a firm grasp...
Hush up, Dangerfield.
You know that to the right wing, 'Rasmussen' equals 'most.'
Concern Citizen-
Do you live in Ohio, or even know what the Ohio political landscape is like?
Early voting results show a huge lead for President Obama. The Auto Bailout resonates here, where many jobs are directly or indirectly tied to the auto industry. Last year (R) Gov. Kasich's attempt to 'bust' the public unions was repealed at the polls. Teachers, Police Officers, and Fire Fighters won't forget it, though. Republicans tried to severely limit Early Voting and lost that battle, too.
The Obama grassroots organization is strong, motivated, and encouraged by two straight victories. President Obama wins Ohio by a minimum of 52% - 49%.
I've noticed that a lot of the tighty righties on here have detailed information on any state that happens to be discussed.
One of them claimed to be from Michigan when I was talking about Domino's Pizza and how the four franchisees I personally know (delivered pie through college and grad school, some of my co-workers went into the biz full time) are all very anti-Bain and anti-Romney, having watched their franchises be turned into corporate cash cows at the expense of their individual store profits.
A few days later, he was addressing another poster about Ohio, and said he was from there, as well. When I pointed this out to him, he never responded. In fact, I haven't seen that nic posting here since then. Funny place, the internet.
Sorry for the repost but it bears repeating, the Busken bakery cookie poll has Obama winning Ohio 54% to 46%. Hasn't been wrong since introduced in 1992.
Cappy - Here is just one that shows Romney on top.
Here is another more to the left for your liking.
HuffPost Model Estimate
Currently tracking 559 polls
Updated 8 minutes ago
Have some milk with your cookies. They are just polls, but when the majority of them lean one way, well you know.
Layton - Are you writting a book on me. Do I ever ask you were you live. Do me a favor go and have some milk and cookies with crappy (sorry I meant cappy).
Hey, "Concern Citizen," care to meet back here on election night?
Crappy nobody'll be able to meet you anywhere because on election night when Sheik Hussein, the Kenyan Kalamity is sent back to Nairobi your head will explode like in the movie "Scanners." LOL
So let me summarize the Obama supporters comments:
Lots of name calling
Lots of exclamation points
Not a single comment about why Obama would be a good president.
Hmmm. And you wonder why his campaign is not working.
How about, he has a better economic plan. He will spend more money on infrastructure, which is needed. Romney will spend more money on defense, which is not necessary. Obama wants to rebuild the American middle class; Romney wants to build a Chinese middle class. Obama wants to protect basic social programs for the elderly; Romney wants to change them into "profit-making" private enterprises. Romney wants to expand the U.S. Navy. Against whom? Romney's economic plan rests on tax cuts and defense spending, which can only lead to additional debt. Obama wants tax hikes for the wealthy, to pay for the infrastructure improvement, to mitigate the added debt and create a more viable long-term American economy.
I can go on...
Tsaurus, Except you left out some key points: he has a track record, and he has an opponent. He also has the support of many people I respect. His opponent is an unknown quality. Why shouldn't I vote for him?
Travisaurus-
It all boils down to simple math:
Spending Cuts + Revenue Increases = Deficit Reduction (Obama)
Military Spending Increases + 20% Tax Cuts = Deficit Increases (Romney/Ryan - unless you add the 'magic fairy dust' of unspecified spending cuts and imaginery tax reform)
Which plan makes more sense?
Add to that Pres. Obama's accomplishments: Repeal DADT, Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, ObamaCare, Auto Bailout, Wall St. Reform (just to name a few)
.......and don't forget - GM is alive and Osama Bin Laden is dead......
For all you Romney supporters:
NAME ONE SINGLE ISSUE ON WHICH HE HAS NOT COMPLETELY REVERSED HIS POSITION!
Right. Look carefully at Romney's "plan." He does not foresee a "balanced budget" for 8 to 10 years. Tea Party people in the House threatened to shut down government unless they got a "balanced budget" last year.
He doesn't even promise reduced annual deficits; he says he won't INCREASE the deficits. The current annual deficit is running at roughly $1.1 trillion per year. Times 8 = an added debt of $8.8 trillion, to the $16 trillion we now have. That's $24.8 trillion by 2020, which is roughly the Obama projection.
In other words, there is no substantial difference in the debt projections of both Parties. The issue is HOW the deficits are spent and their impact on GDP growth.
And, in that, Obama pushes for reasonable tax hikes on the wealthy, to off-set the costs of infrastructure improvements, to rebuild a middle class. Romney wants tax cuts and defense spending: tax cuts for global investment; defense spending to protect those investments and as minimum stimulus for the domestic economy, to keep the social programs alive during his term(s) of office.
Libertarians and Tea Party people have been "co-opted" by frauds. It's amazing they don't see through it.
The only way Romney will win is by cheating and not counting votes. We all know that that is a favorite option of the republican thugs.
The only way Obama wins is by dead people voting. It the Chicago way.
Is Obama the same as Al Sharpton? Is he the same as Keith Oberman or Rachel Maddow? Is there a difference between him and Hillary? How about him and Pelosi, or fear-mongerer Reid?
They why do Liberal idiots continue to think all republicans are the same? Sometimes the moronic arguments made on here are hysterical.
Republicans arguing against voter fraud is bad...but then if a republican gets caught up in something resembling voter fraud....its all a republican thing.....yet we all know that ACORN was caught up in it several times....but now voter fraud is a republican thing. Moronic Idiots making illogical points.
George:
Acorn wasn't about voter fraud it was about voter REGISTRATION fraud. Big difference George.
You were saying about idiots making illogical points...
So, for all those claiming ANOTHER Conspiracy Theory, the Dept of Labor will release the jobs report on Friday as originally scheduled.
Will it include Calfornia this time?
If you listen to Rush Limbaugh, no.
Portman lies awake nites wondering how else can we cheat? We've tried to pass every voter disenfranchisement law there is. We're put up misleading billboards. We've put out misinformation on our websites. The Secretary of State Husted has done everything possible at this point to cheat. However, WE are still WORKING on it and we won't give up.
ditto for "haxlerod"...probably even more so.
Jeep ad. turn people off big time, Romney campaign wasn't smart after all.
When you have a trust problem with people, the worst thing you can do is get caught in a blatant public lie.
That ad was the kicker for me: Romney is desperate. He not only blew off the condemnations of the ad from Chrysler and GM, he doubled down and bought more airtime for it.
Take a good look, Romney voters. If he's that fast and loose with the facts now, how will he be if elected, and he has an Iran/Contra, Valerie Plame, or Benghazi of his own? When it happens....and it happens to EVERY President at some point....you will then get exactly what you are voting for.
This article should read FORMER master of Ohio politics,,,,,
Obama is a communist and consequently it’s not surprizing that he would want to move American jobs to China. The auto bailout is an elaborate plot to do just that. Ohio, On November 6th, vote to free America from the shackles of communism. Vote for “Honest” Mitt Romney and “Patriot” Paul Ryan.
BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Goonbelly - well the first part of your moniker is correct - goon! When you spout the "communist" nonsense we know you're a blithering idiot! "nuff said!
Obama/Biden 2012
Goon- when you spout the "communist" nonsense, we know you're just a blithering idiot! 'nuff said!
Obama/Biden 2012
As a former Buckeye, I must say that ANY buckeye who votes for any of the current GOP candidates will deserve the devastation they will receive if these GOP liars are elected to office, no matter what level of office. The GOP is destroying OH. And get off that BS of Obama being a communist. You have NO understanding of what that term even means. The auto bailout was done to KEEP jobs in OH and the rest of the good ole USofA. Both Chrysler and GM have debunked Romney's ads and claims about Jeep. And Romney is responsible (along with his partners at BAIN) for causing many Americans to lose their jobs to Chinese...just look at the latest one in IL with Sensata.
anti-trust proponent, I'm a life-long Buckeye, and I thought you might enjoy the home-made political sign that I saw yesterday in a front yard in Lyndhurst, Ohio. Republican Josh Mandel is running against the Incumbent Democratic Senator, Sherrod Brown. [Josh Mandel's experience as an elected official began as a Lyndhurst, Ohio city councilman, where he was elected in 2003.]
In hand-lettering it read, "ANYBODY but Josh!"
Great sarcasm Goonbelly!
Hmmm...Romney people already lining up their excuses? Wow! That says something.
So Portman is proud to shill for the Lyin' Mormon Bishop is he?
The real question still remains why would any ohioan vote for Mitt or rob it would be like voting to fire yourself from a job. Rob Portman need to be helping the president, so the president can do more to help Ohio,because the president has delivered for ohioan by holding job in the auto industry as well as manufacturing job in ohio and if anyone in the so call news media knows anything at all about our country and this economy. If ohio had lost its manufacturing base the country would be in real depression. Ohio is a key strategic economic part of this country thousands of manufacturers small and large businesses state wide and farming.
Yes, we’ll gather at the river,
The beautiful, the beautiful river;
Gather with the saints at the river
That flows by the throne of God
Folks, America has been beaten and battered and left for dead on the edge of the cliff by the evil entity that now resides in the White House. But all is not lost ! There is still hope, a glorious shining light of hope in that valley of American exceptionalism which lies far beyond the fiscal cliff of doom. But the road to that promising light can only be travelled if we allow “Honest” Mitt Romney along with "Patriot" Paul Ryan and his legions of freedom loving tea party patriots to show us the way. On November 6th, help America get back up on its feet again. Ohio, on November 6th do the right thing and vote for “Honest” Mitt Romney and "Patriot" Paul Ryan.
Soon we’ll reach the silver river,
Soon our pilgrimage will cease;
Soon our happy hearts will quiver
With the melody of peace
Out of the many Mitt Romneys we have seen this campaign, from 'Severely Conservative" Mitt to "Moderate Mitt" to "I Agree with the President" Mitt, one thing we have never seen is an "Honest Mitt" - does one even exist?
Why is Paul Ryan a "Patriot"? What has he EVER done to deserve that title?
Goonbelly
You shall not take the name of the Lord your God in vain. The Lord will not let you go unpunished if you misuse his name, for the Lord will not hold him guiltless who takes his name in vain. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (the Mormon Church)
But they use Jesus Christ name as a Masks of deception.
What Mormonism really teaches behind closed doors?
His Religion is Not Christian and has elements of Masonry. Romney's Family came from a Polygamy childhood.
He is a rich elitist, handsome and congenial.
He is a sadistic Bully but acts as if he is kind. But it's all an act, trick the practice of deliberately making up things that are not true
He made his money destroying companies and ending jobs through mergers and acquisitions.
Ask yourself if you really want a Mormon missionary president and commander-an-chief of the most powerful
Mitt Romney fit is the antichrist to the tie.
Fox News is the helper of the antichrist.
Goonbelly - you are the perfect example of the warped mind that now represents what was once a proud Republican party but has now been hijacked by the nutcases of the Tea Party. And, people like you wonder why people are leaving the Republican party in droves?
Obama/Biden 2012
I'll take a whole case. Just ship it, along with the band instruments to River City.
"Honest" Mitt, "Patriot" Ryan? Whose wine cellar have you been drinking from? No member of the Tea Party should ever be called a patriot because they are the real traitors to this nation.
Just spreading the gospel of Freedom & Liberty and hoping that I can convert a few freeloadres along the way before it's too late.
I doubt that anything you can do would prevent the freeloading oil companies from cashing on the taxpayers' dollars, supported by their Republican red welfare state enablers.
Goonbelly is an obvious troll.
Better yet, just send the 2 liars a can of soup.
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters is asking for your help! Copy it, Paste it and send it to everyone you know.
Romney thinks people in the United States are dumb? Romney you did say Let Detroit Go Bankrupt! People, who you going to believe? Romney or believe in the TEAMSTERS! This is not about Obama, this is about you! Go on You Tube See American workers face on videos telling the facts: Teamsters Romney Let Detroit Go Bankrupt, Bailout Saves U.S. Manufacturing, No ON Prop 32, CBS Cleveland - Teamsters Jim Hoffa Rallies Cleveland Members, Teamster James Hoffa- from the frontline-war on labor.
Romney thinks people in Ohio are dumb as a door knob. Ohio voted for Obama. Romney go home. Your not welcome in Ohio. Keep the F-OUT
TEAMSTERS 4 OBAMA
Here is a fact for you. Both GM and Chrysler DID go BANKRUPT under Obama supervision. So the line about Romney letting those auto companies go bankrupt is rubbish. How do you think Obama got the right to throw all the share holders and bond holders out. Then he gave 20% of the automakers to the unions. He sold Chrysler to Fiat. This all came as part of the settlement in bankruptcy court. So stop demagoguing Romney on the auto bankruptcy issue. Obama did what Romney said to do. Since we are not getting $50 billion of our bailout money back, what did we get for it since Obama did take them into bankruptcy court in late 2009?
Yeah Teamsters! Are you all planning on attempting on intimidating voters at the polls again? I live in Texas if you would like to try. Or if your compadres in the Black Panters would like to give it an attempt as well. And nice job on getting your pensions, whereas non-union workers got squat. Yeah, that sounds fair, and isn't that what the almighty bho is all about...fairness? You union thugs truly make me sick, even more so than socialists, which is saying something...
NPCDAN,
Great post. Union thugs do not want anyone to talk about there payout from the Government. The president has them in their back-pocket and they are too dumb to know it. I am from Missouri and I would also like to see some of them at the polls trying to intimidate! Dont think they would like how it would come out around here.
Geez! What do you have against unions? And, you associate unions with the New Black Panther Party, which must by now have at least enough members to move meetings from the telephone booth, to a small diner?
stone-
What do they have against unions? By now you should be used to reactionary thugs denigrating the working people of America.
Please note that neither replied.
"gg", & "stone", these unions, especially the public sector unions, have been coddled for far too long. These organizations are in fact, outdated, and antiquated, and should honestly be put out to pasture. The very fact that they can threaten to sue a major airplane fabricator just because they wanted to open a plant in a work-right state is sickening. Too much power in the hands of too few people leads to bad things, ergo, unions...
Yes he is under pressure considering that voter suppression has been shot down by courts.
Portman is almost certainly correct. This is because as pointed out by the head of Suffolk polling, Democrat models which they are using to poll Ohio are blatantly incorrect. They are polling the heavily Democratic Cleveland area as if it represents 15%-18% of the population of voters in Ohio which is was in the 2000 election. But as born out by the 2010 census and the last 4 statewide elections(2004-2010), the more accurate number for Cleveland is 11%. They are also polling 8%-10% more Democrats because Obama pulled 7.5% more Democrats than Republicans in Ohio in 2008. But does anyone really think with the population drop in Democratic areas and the enthusiasm gap that Obama is going to get almost 10% more Democrats? This is emphasized by the early counts from early voting in Ohio. In 2008, Obama received amost 3 times more votes in early voting as McCain. As of Sunday, statewide polls are showing Romney leading Obama in early voting. So there is no evidence not to believe the number from Rasmussen and Gallup which show Romney ahead by 2 points but still within the margin of error. There were two statewide polls over this last weekend which actually showed Romney ahead by 4 points. The key point in all of these polls is that each shows Romney over 50%. Not one poll in the last month shows Obama in Ohio over 47%. I am very aware of this points in Ohio because I have lived here for most of my life.
"Not one poll in the last month shows Obama in Ohio over 47%."
Grove Insight (D-Project New America/USAction) NEW! 10/28 - 10/29 500 LV 48 45 - Obama +3
JZ Analytics/Newsmax NEW! 10/27 - 10/29 825 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 10/28 750 LV 4.0 48 50 Romney +2
SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/29 603 LV 4.1 48 45 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 718 LV 3.7 51 47 Obama +4
Gravis Marketing 10/27 - 10/27 730 LV 3.6 50 49 Obama +1
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 10/23 - 10/28 1110 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
Purple Strategies 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2
CNN/Opinion Research 10/23 - 10/25 741 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4
ARG 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 49 47 Obama +2
Mellman 10/25 49.0 44.0 Obama +5.0
Really? Almost all of them show him over 47%. Heck, even the Rasmussen poll that shows the Romney lead has Obama over 47%.
That's all within the last week.
Ray W - You are WAY off base. Of the five polls taken in Ohio in the last few days OUR of them show Obama leading by 3-5 pts.
ONLY Rassmussen has Romney tied or leading,and they are historically Republican leaning and lately very inaccurate.
Early voting in Ohio also shows President Obama with a lead .....
This is a serious question: Why would Ohioians vote for someone who was against the automotive bailout?
Read my post above and you will know why these Democratic leaning pollster are showing Obama up. They are over polling Democrats and the heavily Democratic Cleveland area. Unless Obama is at 49.5% or higher, he is in trouble. Some of the polls being used by Real Clear are as much as a month old. Unless the polls are since the last debate, they really do not tell the story of what is going on now.
Look at the dates on the polls. All of them are within the last week. That's why I said, "That's all within the last week."
In fact, it is pretty much every poll conducted in the last week. There was another that was released this week, but it was actually conducted from the 18th to the 23rd. This is representative of all of the major polling organizations, left leaning, right leaning, whatever.
So basically, unless you assume that EVERY polling organization besides Rasmussen is doing what you are claiming and that every polling agency has, for some reason, tossed aside their professional ethics and fallen into Axelrod's spell, the fact that the state is trending heavily AWAY from your candidate at this point with everyone aside from Rasmussen should register at some point.
Rasmussen and Gallup have not shown Obama in the lead in Ohio since the first debate more than 3 weeks ago. Both show Romney in the lead in Ohio by +2% or more. Of the statewide polls only the Cleveland Plain Dealer shows Obama in the lead by +1%. But they traditionally over poll Cleveland and Sen. Sherrod Brown's(D) wife sits of the editorial board and is one of the head columnists. Not a very objective source. Again many of these service are polling Ohio with the same population model as in the 2000 election. Just look at the 2010 census, the Cleveland area lost two congressiona districts because of the 2010 census. Good bye Dennis Kuckinich!! Both congressional districts were severely under populated.
Obama took Chrylser and GM through the bankruptcy court in late 2009 just like Romney wanted to. So what did we get for that auto bailout? Can anyone tell me.
Early voting numbers from to survey in Ohio show Romney in the lead 54% to 46%. It has been all over the radio and in a few newspapers here in Ohio. The only outlet I have heard mention it nationally was Fox
A whole bunch of people (maybe a million) are still employed; that's what we got. Most economists agree that had Romney's plan been followed, allowing them to go into bankruptcy, while simultaneously promising "government guarantees" to prospective buyers, would not have worked. For one thing, no one was willing to invest WiTHOUT government guarantees and the government couldn't have been reasonably expected to "guarantee" the companies survival without identifying the buyers first.
Leveraged buy-out specialists (gee, who would that be?) could have taken over the company, taken the government money, pocketed it to recover their costs and profit, and let the company go under a second time, essentially walking away with taxpayer money.
The Obama method of essentially "reorganizing," through a deal with the UAW and equity purchase, allowed the company to be kept essentially in the hands of the "employees" and the suppliers and their employees, who depended upon it.
Bondholders, I believe, WERE OFFERED A DEAL, but they turned it down, anticipating a BETTER DEAL, from the Courts, once the company went into bankruptcy. Another risky gamble, they lost, although I suspect some law suits may continue. Remember the cardinal rule of investing: the higher the risk; the higher the return...IF it works.
However, all of that be as it may, the question remains unanswered, assuming automotive employees, in Ohio, outnumber automotive bond holders...why would they want to vote for someone willing to let the industry go under?
P.S. Essentially.
Actually, the number was 52-46% and the number was not specific to Ohio. Gallup's number was based on early voting nationally. I imagine if you broke it down by region, Romney's lead among early voters in that Gallup poll would be heavily weighted toward the south.
The following organizations show the advantage specific to Ohio:
Rasmussen 10/28 Obama +26
Purple 10/23-25 Obama +26
CNN 10/23-25 Obama +21
ARG 10/23-25 Obama +11
Time 10/22-23 Obama +30
PPP 10/18-20 Obama +32
CBS/Quinnipiac 10/17-20 Obama +15
SurveyUSA 10/20-22 Obama +18
It's another example of 'Gallup versus the World.' Even heavily right-leaning pollsters like Rasmussen do not dispute that Obama has a massive early voting advantage in the state of Ohio. The massive advantage in early voters that Rasmussen lists, (only 3 days old), is taken from the very same, (and only poll), that shows Romney in the lead.
Early voting did not start in Ohio until the 20th, there was a court fight holding up voting. Secondly, Rasmussen has not polled for early voting in Ohio. That was directly from the mouth of Scott Rasmussen over the weekend on Fox News. The polls I am citing are from the Columbus Dispatch and Ohio State University. The Gallup toward the south would be far more accurate. Everyone in Ohio knows that Cleveland has lost a great deal of population over the last ten years. The 2010 census and the lose of two congressional districts bears that out as a given fact. Romney is ahead in early voting in Ohio. I have not seen anyone in Ohio stating the number you are giving or even remotely close. In fact, there was a story on a Cleveland station how the turnout for early voting especially in Democratic wards is greatly down over 2008. Some of the Democratic politicians in Cleveland were blaming it on the court fight. But the TV station also mentioned the drop in population and reports of reduced Democratic voter emthusiasm. Meanwhile MSNBC was reporting how early voting in Ohio is up.
"The polls I am citing are from the Columbus Dispatch and Ohio State University."
Where? I have just asked google for every derivation I can think of for 'Ohio State University poll that shows Romney leading in early voting in Ohio' and 'Columbus Dispatch poll that shows Romney leading in early voting in Ohio' and got no hits for either. You would think that something this dramatic would be reported on the internet somewhere.
I have not seen this at all and I comb just about every aggregator site on the net every day.
The last Columbus Dispatch poll listed on RCP ended 9/29/12. I can't find any Ohio State University polls listed on any aggregator site. There are University of Cincinnati/Ohio polls listed on both RCP and 538. Is that what you're talking about?
And this is from Rasmussen's site in the writeup of the Ohio poll conducted October 28:
If Scott Rasmussen doesn't poll early voters, it might be a good idea for the guys who run his website to stop doing their poll writeups as if they did.
Rassmusen has been the most accurate poll since 2004...Believe what you want to believe....You cant change that fact!
So you agree with Rasmussen that the Democrats have a +26 advantage in early voting in Ohio then?
Good. It's nice to see some people aren't suffering from the 'phantom poll' syndrome.
If that is what Rasmusen says ...why not? I believe a lot of Democrats need the early Voting...They should have that Opportunity....not against it. The only problem I have with it ..is that it opens it up to more corruption. I think the good out weighs the bad.