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Subscribe to RSSWhat it all boils down to… Charlie Cook: “A strong performance in that first debate would have probably closed the sale for Obama. Instead, his lackluster showing shifted a bunch of voters who had seemed to be drifting gradually in his direction back into neutral, with some reversing course and moving into Romney’s column.”
More: “This race is still a challenge for Romney. Although tied nationally in this new NBC/WSJ and most other polling, he still carries a great deal of scar tissue in some of the swing states—most notably, Ohio and Wisconsin, but also Colorado and Iowa. Romney is clearly better situated to win the popular vote than the electoral vote; Obama is much closer than Romney to the magic 270 number in the Electoral College. But this is a horse race, a very close one that can still go either way, and that was not the case before the first debate. The debates—and I would say all three of them—hit a reset button for Romney and put him back into this contest.”
Obama and Romney are on track to raise $2 billion between them.
OHIO: Bloomberg (via Political Wire): “It would take about 80 days of nonstop viewing to see all 58,235 of the typically 30-second Ohio presidential advertisements that have aired in the last month.”
FLORIDA: Politico: “The Florida county that brought us the hanging chad 12 years ago is in the midst of yet another electoral mess — and the presidential election is still nearly two weeks away.
The problem this time: 27,000 filled-out absentee ballots in Palm Beach County that were misprinted and cannot be read by tabulation machines. County officials are having the results from all those ballots copied onto properly laid-out ballots, with representatives from both the Obama and Romney campaigns present.”
But the Palm Beach Post writes: “After more than a week of bad news about absentee ballots with printing errors and the potential chaos of hand-copying an estimated 27,000 of them, Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Susan Bucher on Thursday found something to smile about. ‘We’re caught up,’ an almost giddy Bucher said shortly after 4 p.m. Problems and long days and nights are far from over. But the news means that after four days, teams of temporary workers had copied all of the nearly 8,500 bad ballots that were in the first batch of 15,000 that arrived at the elections office by Monday, and additional ones that continued to stream in this week. Monday was the first day absentee ballots could be opened.”
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CNN says Obama's math does not add up? How could that be? How brazen is it to say your competitor's math does not add up when your glossy plan's math does not add up?
www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/25/cnn_talks_with_obama_camp_and_says_obamas_math_still_doesnt_add_up.html
I'd rather blame those who chose style against substance. Character matters so is Word and anyone who sits in that Oval office should be one of character. I never bought into Bush but he showed consistency in his believes. You know what he stands for even though they were stupid.
Just yesterday in Ohio, Mitt and Pottman basically lied about Chrysler moving jobs to China and his stance on the auto bailout. Are we so desperate that lies moves us? Not me and anyone who votes against MITT.
VOTE CHARACTER VOTE OBAMA.
just24
Apparently, I am the only person in America who watched the first debate and felt President Obama won it.
Seriously, I listened carefully to both men's arguments, and I found Obama's more convincing. The moment the debate was over, however, the chattering class started hyping Romney's "win." I asked my boss at work what he thought and he said yes, Romney "won" but only because the President was too ethical and argued on substance. He didn't challenge Romney's assertions (lies.)
Having seen the "best man" lose numerous times in my life, I have prepared myself for an Obama loss, but I still believe most Americans will remember the mess he inherited, our allies disliking us, the Republican House creating havoc, and decide to support the President's re-election. (Besides, Romney is thoroughly unlikeable and his policies would only favor the rich.)
Amy B. Portland, ME - I asked my boss at work what he thought and he said yes, Romney "won" but only because the President was too ethical and argued on substance. He didn't challenge Romney's assertions (lies.)
Your boss's assessment was the same across the board even my darling wife's. What I felt they'll failed to do was was assess these men on the substance of their policies and it's most unfortunate.
I will be a calamity should Mitt get elected based on the unrelenting lies he's told. It will definitely shape future elections because lies will then be asserted and believed as a way to holding public offices.
I still believe Obama will win this election. We're not that stupid.
VOTE CHARACTER VOTE OBAMA.
In the first debate, President Obama was more factual but did not present well. It appeared he went in unprepared to debate and not ready to challenge Gov. Romney.
Gov. Romney presented better. It was clear that the direction he went with his statements was not anticipated by the President's debate team. Plus his attacks on President Obama went mostly unanswered.
Based on presentation, Gov. Romney won. Looking at facts, President Obama was more truthful and accurate.
Romney employed the Gish Gallop - which is basically to overwhelm your debate opponent with b.s. The media didn't neccessarily miss this - its just the overwhelming narrative, led by Fox "News" (always use quotes when writing that as they are a propoganda outlet) and the conservative echo chamber was that Romney actually won. The so-called "liberal" media as always, follows along with the b.s. narrative as always in the desperate attempt to equally balance "both sides" vs. reporting the facts.
And the FACTS are that Romney begun a last-month push of lies and desperation (Ryan started this with his speech at the GOP convention which was all lies; actually, the Romney campaign and surrogates, led by the aforementioned GOP propoganda outlet were telling epic lies months before that), where he will say ANYTHING. The Gish Gallop was succesfully employed due in large part to the lack of effective moderator (look what happened in the last two debates when he tried similar tactics, especially the second debate).
So, once again, the actual facts about the debate are obscured.
WHEN AMERICANS SAW THE REAL OBAMA
We all say Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. But it's all still Denver, Denver, and the mystery that maybe isn't a mystery at all.
If Cincinnati and Lake County go for Mitt Romney on Nov. 6 it will be because of what happened in Denver on Oct. 3. If Barack Obama barely scrapes through, if there's a bloody and prolonged recount, it too will be because of Denver.
Nothing echoes out like that debate. It was the moment that allowed Mr. Romney to break through, that allowed dismay with the incumbent to coalesce, that allowed voters to consider the alternative. What the debate did to the president is what the Yankees' 0-4 series against the Tigers did at least momentarily, to the team's relationship with their city. "Dear Yankees, We don't date losers. Signed, New Yorkers" read the Post's headline.
America doesn't date losers either.
Why was the first debate so toxic for the president? Because the one thing he couldn't do if he was going to win the election is let all the pent-up resentment toward him erupt. Americans had gotten used to him as The President. Whatever his policy choices, whatever general direction he seemed to put in place he was The President, a man who had gotten there through natural gifts and what all politicians need, good fortune.
What he couldn't do was present himself, when everyone was looking, as smaller than you thought. Petulant, put upon, above it all, full of himself. He couldn't afford to make himself look less impressive than the challenger in terms of command, grasp of facts, size.
But that's what he did.
And in some utterly new way the president was revealed, exposed. All the people whose job it is to surround and explain him, to act as his buffers and protectors—they weren't there. It was him on the stage, alone with a competitor. He didn't have a teleprompter, and so his failure seemed to underscore the cliché that the prompter is a kind of umbilical cord for him, something that provides nourishment, the thing he needs to sound good. He is not by any means a stupid man but he has become a boring one; he drones, he is predictable, it's never new. The teleprompter adds substance, or at least safety.
...
Reposting # 1.2......
I will not be a calamityAmy B. Portland, ME - I asked my boss at work what he thought and he said yes, Romney "won" but only because the President was too ethical and argued on substance. He didn't challenge Romney's assertions (lies.)
Your boss's assessment was the same across the board even my darling wife's. What I felt they'll failed to do was was assess these men on the substance of their policies and it's most unfortunate.
It will be a calamity should Mitt get elected based on the unrelenting lies he's told. It will definitely shape future elections because lies will then be asserted and believed as a way to holding public offices.
I still believe Obama will win this election. We're not that stupid.
VOTE CHARACTER VOTE OBAMA.
Facts: Bush run up $14Trillion on America's credit card and this he also did for Americans!
Obama has been in office less than a week. The banks had no money, Wall Street was going down hill, GM was going down hill, AIG, and the U.S. Department of the Treasury was missing one trillion dollars. What happening to all that money? "Abuse", "financial rape", "theft" and "crime" billionaire philanthropist like Romney, think it's a joke!
Why were the banks giving loans to people who clearly could not afford it? Ongoing financial crisis and recession which began in late 2007 continues with many calling it the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s causing house prices to decline, and unemployment to increase.
In 2009 governments in the US and around the world pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system and into the economies hoping to avert another Great Depression and by the end of 2009 although unemployment had continued to increase.
What happen? Bush and the Republican Party! That's what happens when the Republican Party is in control. The everyday Americans who make $250,000 or less pay ten times more in taxes than Americans who make $270,000,000 or more. Its should be put to a vote by the everyday Americans if the people who make millions each years to pay higher taxes. America is getting back together and it is not the time to true back now.
The Bush Years Facts:
Please don't take my word, look it up yourself.
Get Real OBAMA 4 MORE YEARS
The International Brotherhood of Teamsters is asking for your help! Copy it, Paste it and send it to everyone you know.
Romney thinks people in the United States are dumb? Romney you did say Let Detroit Go Bankrupt! People, who you going to believe? Romney or believe in the TEAMSTERS! This is not about Obama, this is about you! Go on You Tube See American workers face on videos telling the facts: Teamsters Romney Let Detroit Go Bankrupt, Bailout Saves U.S. Manufacturing, No ON Prop 32, CBS Cleveland - Teamsters Jim Hoffa Rallies Cleveland Members, Teamster James Hoffa- from the frontline-war on labor.
OBAMA 4 MORE YEARS
CIA operators were denied request for help during Benghazi attack, sources say
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49570159#.UIsbaGfF2UI
.... YOU WANT TO BLAME OBAMA FOR WHAT HAPPENED IN THE MIDDLE EAST? Not to discount the American loss of those four men killed ... May God bless them and their families ....
THIS IS WHAT BUSH DID or DIDN'T DO ON AMERICAN SOIL ....
What Bush Knew Before Sept.11
"We were trying to figure out what they (al Qaeda) would do. We never had specifics about time, place, MO (method of operation)."
U.S. intelligence official, commenting anonymously.
President Bush was told in the months before the Sept. 11 attacks that Osama bin Laden's terrorist network might hijack U.S. passenger planes - information which prompted the administration to issue an alert to federal agencies - but not the American public.
CBS News National Security Correspondent David Martin says the warning was in a document called the President's Daily Brief, which is considered to be the single most important document that the U.S. intelligence community turns out. The document did not, however, mention the possibility of planes being flown
into buildings.
An agent in the FBI's Arizona office did, however, speculate about that, writing in his case notes about Zacarias Moussaoui that Moussaoui seemed like the type of person who was capable of flying an aircraft into the World Trade Center.
It was the observation of an agent taking notes as he thought about his case - an observation whose significance simply did not register at the time.
White House spokesman Ari Fleischer says that while President Bush was told last summer that bin Laden's al Qaeda network might hijack planes, he did not receive information suggesting that airplanes might be used as suicide bombs, as they were on Sept. 11.
Fleischer emphasizes that "until the attack took place, I think it's fair to say that no one envisioned that as a possibility."
The revelation about the president's security briefing comes as House and Senate Intelligence Committee investigators prepare for public hearings beginning next month on whether an intelligence community which spends $30 billion a year should have been able to provide a more specific warning in advance of Sept. 11.
The New York Times reports that an FBI agent in Arizona warned his superiors last summer that bin Laden might be sending students to U.S. flight schools.
Investigators have since Sept. 11 suspected bin Laden's al Qaeda network of masterminding the terror attacks on America, which killed more than 3,000 people.
Republicans don't want to see the bigger picture .... the middle east has been at war since forever ... the attacks on the embassy happened in the middle east .... Bush was for-warned too ... and did nothing and they attacked us AMERICAN SOIL .... HUGE DIFFERENCE .....
MIDDLE EAST - 4 KILLED
AMERICAN SOIL - 3000 KILLED .... YES REPUBLICANS EXPLAIN THAT ONE .....
MAY GOD BLESS AMERICA .... AND AMERICA VOTE FOR OBAMA 2012
OBUMBO WILL BLAME BUSH!!!
WAPO/ABC POLL: INDEPENDENT VOTERS MOVING TO ROMNEY
The latest Washington Post/ABC tracking poll shows voters moving toward Romney since the third debate:
As Romney hits 50, the president stands at 47 percent, his lowest tally in Post-ABC polling since before the national party conventions. A three-point edge gives Romney his first apparent advantage in the national popular vote, but it is not one that is statistically significant with a conventional level of 95 percent confidence.
Results from the tracking poll were first released Monday evening, and had Obama at 49 percent, and Romney at 48. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the results were flipped, with Romney at 49 and the president at 48. All of the results are among likely voters.
Two of the four nights reported here include interviews conducted entirely after Monday's debate in Boca Raton
THE POLL SHOWS ROMNEY WINNING INDEPENDENTS BY 19 PERCENTAGE POINTS!!!
Should that advantage stick, it would be the sharpest tilt among independents in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide win. (Reagan won independent and other unaffiliated voters 63 to 36 percent, according to the exit poll). Obama won them by eight in 2008.
What's really happening:
The Wash. Post poll does not count LVs when they say they will probably vote, only a difinitely vote. I mean saying you are going to vote to me is a LV. Pollsters are missing a huge segment of voters who will vote by having narrowed the LV screen.
Today's battleground analysis based on RCP's poll data.
Remember, my analysis is not based on an average of the leads a given candidate has in the polls, but on a trendline based on the number of polls in which a candidate is ahead. If a candidate has led in every poll or his opponent has never led in a poll, then the state will be listed as All (candidate)
Colorado: T, O+4, R+4, R+1, R+1, Verdict: Romney (+9)
Florida: R+1, R+5, R+5, R+3, R+1, O+1, R+1, Verdict: Romney (+29)
Iowa: O+4, T, R+1, O+8, O+3, T, Verdict: Obama (+6)
Michigan: All O, Verdict: Obama (+16)
Nevada: All O, Verdict: Obama (+6)
New Hampshire: R+2, R+2, O+9, R+1, T, Verdict: Romney (+4)
North Carolina: All R, Verdict: Romney (+15)
Ohio: All O, Verdict: Obama (+18)
Pennsylvania: All O, Verdict: Obama (+20)
Virginia: All R, Verdict: Romney (+13)
Wisconsin: All O, Verdict: Obama (+10)
Electoral College:
Romney: 191+9+29+4+15+13 = 261
Obama: 201+6+16+6+18+20+10 = 277
Changes: North Carolina added as a tossup, Virginia moves to All R.
Analysis: Quite a bit of movement for no essential change in my electoral count. All of Virginia's polling data now lists a lead for Romney, so it appears as if he may have solidified his lead in this state. Does it matter? Only if he can break Obama's stranglehold on any of the ALL O states, (Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
In that area, the polls yesterday were not good for Romney. The polls basically showed a tie in a state I'd already placed in the Romney camp, another tie, (that I'll get a little more in depth with), in a state RCP had moved to Lean Romney a couple of weeks ago but now has to move back, and two more polls with leads for Obama in ALL O states, (Nevada and Pennsylvania). There were also three polls showing leads for Romney in states I was already including in Romney's electoral count.
So what does this show?
Well, other than North Carolina, the trend line appears to continue to be that Romney is keeping the states he gained after his post-first-debate bump, but Obama is continuing to keep all the states through which he's maintaining his electoral college lead.
So on to North Carolina, which is actually the big news coming out of RCP yesterday, because it's the first time a state has actually moved in their electoral college map since 10/20/12 and despite all of the talk about Romney's momentum, it was not a favorable move for him.
These are the three polls RCP is currently using to calculate North Carolina's average:
PPP (D) 10/23 - 10/25 880 LV 3.3 48 48 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 500 LV 4.5 52 46 Romney +6
Gravis Marketing 10/6 - 10/8 1325 LV 2.9 50 41 Romney +9
This is interesting for a variety of reasons. The first poll is obviously well out of date at this point. The second poll shows a smaller lead for Romney and the third shows a tie. And like is usually the case with RCP, the polling data here is incomplete because they pick and choose which polls they want to include.
This poll exists as well:
Grove 10/18 47.0 44.0 Obama +3.0
Which means that the only polls that were actually taken within the last 8 days in this state show a tie and an Obama lead. Does this mean that North Carolina is actually more competitive than previously thought? As someone who lives here, I can tell you that both campaigns have significantly backed off on the state, apparently believing the race here to be over. I can't really speak to the accuracy of either the PPP or Grove polls, because they didn't include the bones of either poll in their write-ups, but they did reveal some interesting factoids:
*Obama has a 15 point lead in early voting results here, according to the PPD poll, which is not as significant as his early voting results advantage in his firewall states
*The enthusiasm gap in North Carolina, according to the PPD poll, is significantly different from the rest of the nation. According to this poll, approximately. The polls lists 77% of Democrats as 'very excited' versus 65% of Republicans.
*The PPD poll is also the first poll I've seen that has an indication that the third debate might have had an impact on the race, because among the poll respondents, the president won the debate 50%/35, and among those listing themselves as independents, the spread was 51%/21%. This is perhaps significant because in the previous PPD poll of the state, Romney had a 54/40 lead, while in this one had his lead only at 46/45.
So does all of this mean that North Carolina is actually more up for grabs than previously thought? The only viable answer is, 'I don't know.' Based on the polling data, we can't tell. We do know that both campaigns have effectively pulled out of the state, which typically means that both campaigns feel it is locked. It is unusual, however, to see a state uncontested where the final week's worth of polling data appears to favor the candidate the conventional wisdom seems to indicate is going to lose.
We will see. This is mostly all an aside, however, as the big story of the day remains Romney's inability to break into any of the All O states and that the race continues to structurally favor the president with almost no time and no large race-changing events to go.
There is always time for Trump to do something assinine...again...
In the first debate, Romney walked all over Obama.
Obama had that "guilty as charged" look about him, then he began to mumble, and the sweat broke out.
Obama knew he had lost, and millions of viewers got to see the real Obama for once.
The last debate was the final straw. Obama, while trying to appear knowledgeable, and being aggressive, was shown the door again by the superior charisma, and intellect of Mitt.
By essentially agreeing on key points with Obama, Romney stole Obama's thunder. (Very difficult to argue with someone that keeps agreeing with you)
Then Mitt kept shifting the discussion back to the economy over, and, over again. All the while Mitt remains aloof and Presidential, while Obama slips into the snide, 7th grader mode that lost him so many of the women's votes.
This was a scenario where Obama wa,s once again, blindsided by Mitts strategy.
Romney came across as Presidential, while Obama came across as petty and condescending, and it all showed.
Nice slanted view Joey! Bottom line- Romney won the first, Obama won the last 2. If Obama even showed up in the first this wouldn't be close at all. Romney had momentum from the first one, the last 2 stopped it with Obama still leading in the crucial swing state of Ohio and others which have never given Romney any leads. Romney will lose Ohio because of his stance on the Auto bailout, period, and if he does, which looks more likely every day, he'd have to sweep all the rest of the swing states. He will not. Florida, Colorado, Virginia all are toss ups and Nevada is nearly out of reach if not entirely out of reach.
Sorry to inform but the only strategy we've seen from the Mutt is changing positions on every issue. Shifting like you say is only in his positions. Ohio is keeping his feet to the fire with the ruse he's selling now about the auto bailout, another revision of history. Game over!
I have confidence in American voters to not let Romney/Ryan lies determine how they vote. If we've become a country that can't tell the difference between a lie and the truth it really doesn't matter who's President.
Romney was like a parrot repeating everything that Obama said. He kept saying that Obama was right. Obama Really Schooled Romney so bad that I felt almost sorry for him. I loved it when Romney said; why are you picking on me? Poor baby Willard. It was so clear that Obama won! Like Obama said; Romney you are the last person on Earth to talk about getting tough on china and Obama was 110% Right! Would you like to see the real Mitt Romney and how he sold out America by moving jobs to China, just two or three week ago!
Romney along with Bain Corp. put 1,500 Americans out of work and now they're in China! Would you like to see the Americans sold out, then go on to you tube right now and look for.
YOUTUBE
The Ed Show - Freeport Illinois a prime example of two visions for America!
Romney's Bain Selling out American Workers to China.
Sensate Workers Protest Mitt Bain and its Corporate Values!
Dirt Secret Behind Bain Capital Profits Under Mitt Romney!
There're a lot more about the two face liar of Mitt Romney selling out Americans as he is running for Office!
Romney CEO of Bain Capital buys profitable American plant and ships it overseas. Mostly to China. 50,000 American Plant in total were sold.
Romney is a low life two face liar and very UN-AMERICA!
America needs Obama in office 4 more years.
On substances, policies, & truths........President Obama is the 2 to 5 favorite so lets not be hypothetical here...........there is no if's or but's .......PRESIDENT OBAMA WILL WIN THIS ELECTION.......
Mitch McConnell would like to take credit for an Obama defeat. But it's not going to happen.