FACT: MITT Romney is behind in his home state!!!!!

Romney may lose his home state of 40 years, which he governed for four, by the largest margin of any U.S. presidential candidate.

Recent voter surveys show Romney trailing President Barack Obama in the state by 14 to 33 percentage points. The largest margin of defeat for any presidential candidate in his home state was Herbert Hoover, who lost Iowa by almost 18 points in 1932.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-17/romney-on-verge-of-home-state-loss-makes-brown-union-man

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I 'm proud to say my canvasing in IOWA, phone calls, and donation to OFA are paying off. I will continue to help GOTV. We can't gloat. VOTE!!!

Vote a straight democratic ticket. Give President Obama a Congress he can work with.

How anyone can vote for a man who refuses to show his taxes to prove he is not a felon? That along is a compelling reason, not to mention, all the other scandalous things Romney has done to not put MYTH Romney in the White House. Romney and Ryan are serial liars!

4 more 4 44

Obama/Biden 2012

Alas, my home state of Massachusetts is full of radicals like Lizzie Warren..however, .the way the Mitt-mentum is going, it may be close to 1972, when the Democrat carried Moonbat-achusetts...and lost the other 49 states..

Poor Lyin' is a rising star in the GOP...but not as VP in January 2013

Oh nooooos - 'can't carry his home state'

Looks like our libbie friends have a new meme.

And like the rest, what a winner it is.

PSSST: You know who totally carried his home state?

Walter Mondale.

Get some!

Blatina here.

I really enjoyed the jokes for both the President and Governor Romney. They both did great.

On Polls, do not kid yourself this race is tied at this moment when you put all the polls together and come out with an average. Although I believe that Rasmussen is the most accurate, the Huffington Post is another comprehensive one.

The two issue that will change this election are the economy and the Libya screw up.

"How much does Obama pay Jen?"

Given how Feisty engages in substance-free personal attacks and nasty rhetoric that turns off all but leftist zealots...

Maybe Feisty is being paid by the Romney campaign.

Feisty - Dean, another re-reg? Definitely a right wing troll. And, now HE'S stuck on the Jen thing. I'm amazed that they keep making more dumb Republicans. They clearly broker the "smart" Republican mold long ago!

Bev - which home state would that be for Romney? Has he actually decided yet???

Hope your birthday was FANTASTIC!!! Drinks tonight at the DDI!

Obama/Biden 2012

And, now HE'S stuck on the Jen thing.

Seeking,

Dino is just another leg humping Feisty fan! Ignore him like the rest!

Drinks tonight at the DDI!

Can't wait! See you there! ☺

Spanky-

... to Hell with Walter Mondale, I want to hear more about you 50ish secretary who is a great-grandma.

How much is the Obama campaign paying Jen? Interesting question, but the answer would be zero.

Now how much is the campaign and MSNBC paying Global Strategy Group is another question. Their published client list is rather left-wing.

Why would the Senior VP (Jen Psaki) leave such a position to campaign for Obama unless they are either in the Obama pocket via the DNC?

Is this the reason F. Chuck Todd acts like a paid stooge of the Obama WH? He's auditioning for a position with GSG?

Goto the website and have a look! Read the data on Wiki re Psaki and you have to wonder. Feisty and Jen, same birthdays in Roselle, IL! Hmmmmmm.

Could Feisty be a paid stooge for FR also - drumming up the vote for the Bamster while demeaning the conservatives for Obama?

Feisty---I'm starting to wonder if there really is some different way that the GOP thinks. They've convinced themselves that you are someone you aren't and won't let it go. Knowing your true identity as I do from having met you, it is so funny to me that these myths persist. They just seem to decide what they are going to think and then ignore all facts to the contrary.

I probably shouldn't spoil the surprise about your party at the Dew Drop Inn tonight but will drop a hint about the entertainment. Who was in Iowa and Ohio yesterday campaigning for President Obama?

1funnygirl - you've shown your utter ignorance - yet again.

Could Feisty be a paid stooge for FR also - Since FR gave her a weeklong timeout about a month ago you can pretty well bet she isn't paid by them. Now go wipe the egg off your face, crawl back under your rock, and try to get some common sense!

Steeler - no, they just keep making Republicans dumb and dumber!

Obama/Biden 2012

Seeking Sanity -

"Dean Moriarty" has his own alter ego, and I think this pretty well sums it up:

http://www.shmoop.com/on-the-road/dean-moriarty-timeline.html

Holy Goof!

1funnygirl

Jen ... Chuck Todd is considered to be a Conservative by most if not all of the Dems who post here.,

Romney can get away with his lies in states Obama is not contesting. It is another story in states where Obama campaign has made big efforts. That is what these polls show us.

Whether the rest of the nation can be as enlightened as the voters of Wisconsin and Iowa remains to be seen, but I look forward to Americans everywhere realizing that Romney's economic plan is a" Trojan Horse" for more trickle down economics (or as Bush I called it, Voodoo Economics).

OBAMA 2012....for a fairer and better America

black catwhitecat: Spanky-... to Hell with Walter Mondale, I want to hear more about you 50ish secretary who is a great-grandma"

Don't forget, bcwc - that was the 50-ish great-grandmother of an 18-year-old, no less. Who also just happens to be black, and "now" a lesbian, who can be bribed by a free car to vote for Mitt Romney. I'm sure I'll eventually be able to think of an offensive stereotype he left out of there someplace, but like you, I'm still trying to get past the math in his "true story"!

Wow, not so FunnyGirl, you've turned from swiftboating Democratic politicians to swiftboating progressive posters online, is this part of the continuing Republican strategy? You must be really threatened by one Feisty Redhead.

It's funny your strategy doesn't include talking up the Republican candidate. Apparently, you have nothing good to say about Romney.

I could fill this comment box with reasons why I support electing President Obama, including the fact I admire his intelligence, consistency, empathy, work ethic and singing voice. Then there is the fact he coaches his daughter's team, appointed Hillary to Secretary of State, and advocates for developing renewable energy technology. President Obama has inspired people in other countries, as well as at home, his administration has deported more illegal immigrants with criminal records, than Bush did in two terms, and then there is the fact Osama bin Laden is finally out of commission. I could go on and on...but you haven't even offered one reason why you support Mitt.

Chuck Todd is considered to be a Conservative by most if not all of the Dems who post here.,

Considered? lol

It's a FACT!

Chucky T has been caught slipping up more than once on live TV, letting the viewers know exactly where his allegiance lies... lol

I'm starting to wonder if there really is some different way that the GOP thinks.

SF,

We have an election to win, and this is what they want to focus on!

Sorry, I'm not wasting valuable time enriching their bizarre fantasies! ;o)

These two nitwits should really get a room!

Who was in Iowa and Ohio yesterday campaigning for President Obama?

Baby... I was "Born to Run"! ;o)

Feisty,

Having met you AND having met Jen (but never at the same time or place) - I, too, am beginning to wander! (typo intentional for the neanderthals)

Bwaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahaha

They just keep whining about you instead of finding ways to DEFEND their lameass candidate. It makes me HAPPY, HAPPY, HAPPY!

4 more for 44,

Obama/Biden 2012

R$mney/Ryan 1040

Since FR gave her a weeklong timeout about a month ago

I suppose if you want to call a week in ReHab to dry out a "timeout"

To bad it doesn't seem to have worked.

Mitt won't carry MA either. Losing by a huge margin.

That's Mr Vice President to you after November 6th Fiesty.

Sounds good doesn't it.

Wasn't walker getting kicked out of Wisconsin also according to your polls?

I believe it turned out different.

I have faith in the people of Wisconsin.

Steeler Fan -

They just seem to decide what they are going to think and then ignore all facts to the contrary.

Unfortunately that seems to be the current Republican approach to almost everything, including foreign policy.

As usual Red has it wrong, it is Obama who is doing the lying. Seems that Ambassador Stevens did ask a month before his death that he wanted more security and expressed the growing number of militants in Benghazi and in Libya. Even the day he died he sent a request asking for more security. Obama can't call Ft. Hood a terrorist attack and he refused for weeks to call Benghazi a terrorist attack.

And the fan club races to the rescue! Who cares there Seeking Sanity? Your views are well, stale.

Let's do focus on the next few days, and focus on the current administration's record rather than the childish namecalling from the left.

So what is the agenda for this president to create jobs, reduce debt, slow runaway spending, and have the auto companies and banks that took bailouts repay the taxpayers? Or, how about talking about the Obama Libyan or Tunisian issues?

Maybe we can be grateful that this wonderfull country of our can elect JFK as the first Catholic president, Obama as the first bi-racial president (although he in his books is critical of his white side), and soon we will elect our first Mormon president!

1funnygirl -- How can any woman vote for the republican ticket with their position on contraceptives, abortion and equal pay??? Romney flip flops on so many things that he can't remember from one day to the next where he stands on anything except cutting the taxes for the rich. They may elect a mormon some day for President but not this one or this time.

Obama/Biden 2012

SailorGirlSoCal

If LyRy loses his seat and Obama wins, he'll just get a job as a lobbyist, which would be (I believe) his first private sector job. He'd earn a paycheck simply for being a Republican tool.

SailorGirlSoCal,

Ryan didn't drive an Oscar Mayor mobile either.

4 more 4 44

Obama/Biden 2012

A hearty hot dog hello to you, Congressman Ryan!

First, as a former Wienermobile driver aka Hotdogger, let me extend my sincere congratulations to you on your recent appointment.

Second, we need to chat. Over the last few days, it has been widely reported that you used to drive the world-famous Oscar Mayer Wienermobile, however, we both know that this is simply not true. You were merely a sales rep for Oscar Mayer, and you sweet-talked your way into driving this legendary hot dog on wheels (via your Oscar Mayer-employed aunt, I might add) for one lap around a parking lot. Now I realize that nepotism has worked for your running mate, but I think it is imperative that you set the record straight immediately for the American people and get the base to trust you asap.

SailorGirl---Happy Friday to you.

Ryan is high up on my list of Republicans who I hope are defeated (a girl can dream), including Michele Bachmann, Dead Beat Daddy Joe Walsh, Alan Keyes and Eric Cantor. I predict he'll find some corporate board to serve on and spend the next 4 years in Iowa and New Hampshire, getting ready for 2016.

SF,

Please add the sack of @!$%#, Todd 'legitimate rape' Akin to your list.

My beloved Senator, Claire McCaskill, handed him his ass last night in the debate; but we still need to cast and count the votes. Missouri is a little bit like PA in that we have New York and California on each side of the state; but straight up Alabama in the middle and the south (excluding Columbia and Jeff City), Thanks!

Lyan can wash dishes.

Clara---thanks for reminding me about Akin. Is he on the ballot for the House and the Senate or are we done with him if Claire beats him?

We have such a group of strong Democrat women running this year---I really hope women give them their support.

I just can't imagine any woman voting for Todd Akin. And to think Paul Ryan co-sponsored his legitimate rape bill---it should tell women everything they need to know about the GOP and they should run in the other direction. We fought too hard to get to where we are to go back and fight again.

He is only on the ballot for the Senate seat. Yeah, he and ryan are 'thick as thieves'.

Romney will score big in North Carolina and Virginia, no question!

Bob in Virginia - in your dreams. Obama will again carry both states - no question!

Obama/Biden 2012

Both sides have left North Carolina, knowing it is Romney's.

As to Virginia, phony polls purporting to show a big Obama lead are now shown to be dead wrong....Romney is surging here...

Bob - NC, not so. Romney doesn't own it and it is still very close. Will go to Obama in November. Wait and see!

VA - keep dreaming. Romney is NOT surging there. It is going to be close but Obama will again win the state!

Obama/Biden 2012

Michael -

Long time, no see! As someone who's spent her entire life in survey research, I tend to skip most of the posts here about polls (see Bob in VA above for a classic reason why), but have been enjoying yours the last couple of days. You're the first person I've seen who even seems to have thought about the impact of the "Already voteds" at this point on polling the supposed still "likely voters". Your analysis of the Susquehanna Poll on FT was interesting too, and prompted me to read their defense of their methods on their web site - which sounded really, really defensive. It's long been a joke around here that if the clients would just tell us upfront what they want the poll to show, we'd have a lot easier time getting it to come out that way - sounds like Susquehanna's taking that joke a bit too seriously. Good to see you around here again.

Michael---it seems to me that what you are saying is that the pollsters haven't totally kept up with the changing times we live in. They seem to have factored cell phones into their models (but who knows if that is effective---many don't answer cell calls if they don't recognize the number, for example) but they don't seem to find a way to measure early voting, which I assume includes mail-in and absentee voting.

What I find interesting is that campaigns always talk about their "internal" polling. I guess that means they want to have accurate numbers to plan resource and time allocations but they want public polling that favors them. Makes me wonder why they can't be the same.

JoAnne--good to hear your real world experiences. Are you seeing many Romney ads in your part of the state? How about Casey?

Steeler Fan -

Haven't seen a Romney ad in this neck of the woods since back during the Summer Olympics, and as I recall, they weren't from his actual campaign anyway, they were from one of his super-pacs. And so far his "ground game" seems to consist of those things you stick in the ground on the interstate ramps. If PA was really any kind of a "toss-up", you'd think we'd be getting deluged.

Bob Casey and Tom Smith are another story, though - one or the other of them is on every five minutes, and with the same one or two ads over and over again to the point where I suspect most people long ago tuned them both out.

Well, except me, maybe - I just have to giggle every time Tea Party Tom stands there and earnestly promises that when HE'S elected, if Congress doesn't pass a budget, they won't get paid. Yeah, good luck getting your new BFF's to vote for that one, Tommy!

If I was a betting man (but I'm not) I would lay odds that President Obama wins Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia and Ohio but loses Florida and North Carolina.

Hey, Joanne, nice to see you again. :)

Steeler Fan: Essentially, yes, that's what I'm saying. There's no way to really tell which polls are guilty of this and which ones aren't because not all of them report this when they give you their methodology. (And honestly, looking at methodology for every poll is kind of boring - I only do it if a poll seems weirdly unrepresentative of everything else I am seeing), but if you observe wild swings in one direction or another or a poll that is bizarrely 10+ points different than every other poll being conducted, then the answer usually lies in the method of either conducting the poll or interpreting the data.

The main problem, for example, with the Susquehanna poll Joanne mentioned is that it was totally unreflective of the age demographics of the electorate. 65% of the poll respondents were over the age of 45. And if you know the general way the population skews for the candidates right now, you'd automatically be able to predict on that basis alone that the poll would lean more for Romney than most other polls in PA being conducted.

TNSVOL: I would guess that you are pretty close. I think Obama loses all of what used to be the Confederacy including Virginia, but otherwise my guesses match yours.

Hey, Michael -

In Susquehanna's defense (I can't believe I'm even saying this!), Pennsylvania IS a pretty "old" state demographically speaking - I think they said we're 5th in the country in terms of average age or voter age or something - but to arbitrarily pick a % like that of people to poll over the age of 45 seems pretty - well, arbitrary. Also, in their methodology, they were claiming that they were using prior voter turnout statistics as part of their weights - but not from 2008; they went all the way back to 2004. The demographics have changed a lot in the last eight years, and obviously so have the issues and the candidates and even the way so many people get their information these days. So to me it's beyond apples and oranges.

But hey, I've only been in the survey business for 43 years - what do I know? :)

DF

Looks to me like Rasmussen is starting to provide cover for their eventual Getting It Right meme.

Not good for the Poll Dancers who appear to suddenly be believers in the polls that favor THEIR candidate.

Rasmussen uses a different model than any other pollster, which generally results in a lower spread for whichever candidate holds the lead on a given day. Rasmussen spreads generally don't move out to beyond +/-3 for any given candidate. Gallup is having some sort of bizarro issue with their likely voter model right now. That is the only thing I can figure because their daily tracking poll is based on a 7 day rolling cycle, which means for Romney to have a +7 lead right now, he would have had to have polled at +13.9% for the last three days in their survey.

Which means that either they are solely polling in Oklahoma or there is something vastly different about the way they are categorizing a 'likely voter' than everyone else. I suspect the latter, simply because when they break to registered voters the spread is only +2.

And as we see today, it was a relatively minor blip since the Romney lead among likelies in Gallup dropped back down to +6 today. I suspect there was probably one hugely outlying survey in the 7 days that had Romney with just a gigantic and totally unbelievable lead. We could probably actually back it up and figure out which day that survey occurred if we had the inclination.

(Boy am I a nerd.)

Michael,

We libs LOVE nerds! You've been sorely missed around these parts!

Where the persons being polled live is the biggest issue for all polls, no matter what their bias. If you poll 1000 likely voters in a national poll (assuming you can really figure out who is likely), and you have 65% of your sample size come from the two coasts, you can greatly tilt the survey in favor of Obama (regardless of whether the party affiliation totals look fair). Similarly, if you poll extensively in places like Kansas, Oklahoma and Alabama, you can tilt the poll drastically in favor of Romney. That is why the state polls, which have much larger sample sizes relative to the population being represented, could be more accurate. The voters within one state (like Iowa or New Hampshire) should certainly be more homogenous than the 1000 voters chosen from all over the country. Just one clumping of "likely voters" from Tulsa, OK or Macon, GA could drastically alter the results of a national poll. Moreover, even in state polls in which large urban areas are included (like Atlanta in Georgia), polling too much or too little in the urban area skews the results. Judgments on who is likely, estimation of party affiliations, and geographic selection are all items which must be accurately represented. Unfortunately, Gallup has twice in the past twelve years come out with some really odd and inaccurate results (in 2000 and in the Congressional races of 2010).

Va Ind--you aren't making sense. The whole issue with Bush/Gore was that we felt Gore should have won the state of Florida, thus giving him the win in the Electoral College as well as the popular vote and been President.

What I suspect would be more likely would be if President Obama won the electoral college and not the popular vote we'd have howls of outrage from the Republicans and even more obstructionism because they would just choose to deny the truth that the President had been re-elected.

Get Real, You know that some of the wealthiest in Congress are Democrats. Both parties are bought and sold by money interests. The difference is that the Republicans go along with the money interests while Democrats do far less of that and some of the time think of the interests of the people. If we let the Republicans control things we won't have even the iota of a chance we have currently with both parties cowtowing to the monied interests. With more Democrats maybe we can break the grip of the money and bring back enough of a Congress willing to compromise, work together with the president and each other to actually work on our behalf part of the time instead of none of the time as now.

I'll say it again....those now touting how wonderful the polls are were just a few weeks ago saying how polls don't matter. They are skewed toward Democrats and aren't important. Those folks have shown how hypocritical they are by now using those polls to say their guy is ahead. What could possibly have changed? Could it be the demographics of those polled? What about the polling methods? Maybe they changed the frequency of the polling? Why they would change is beyond me, and all of them all at once. Is there some conspiracy going on or simply hypocrites praising polls that they said were skewed and unimportant just a couple of weeks ago? Hmmmminteresting.