2012: Lower expectations

Latest polls: USA Today/Gallup Swing State: Romney 51-46% among likely voters. Obama leads 49-47% among registered voters. In a Center for Rural Strategies poll, among rural voters in swing states, Romney leads 59-37%. McCain won the group 53-45%. States: PA: Obama leads by just 4 in Quinnipiac, 50-46%, and Muhlenberg, 49-45%.

Debate expectations are lower for Obama this tie around. By 41-37% this time, people think Obama will do better than Romney in a Pew survey. Before the first debate, that margin was 51-29%.

“As the presidential polls get tighter and more volatile down the final stretch, the fights over those polls are growing only louder and more complex,” the Wall Street Journal writes. “Latest case in point: a Gallup/USA Today poll of the top battleground states, which has Mitt Romney up over President Barack Obama by four percentage points among all likely voters, and tied among women. … If accurate, the poll reflected a dramatic collapse in Obama support in swing states, and all the more so among women voters, which have long been a core plank in his coalition. So the Obama campaign swiftly shot back, disputing Gallup’s methodology. In a memo distributed to reporters, Obama pollster Joel Benenson called the poll ‘an extreme outlier, defying the trends in every other battleground and national poll.’”

The New York Times: “Now Democrats Suggest Polling Is Flawed.”

The L.A. Times points out there are two other trends happening below the essentially tied horse race: “One trend shows an improving image for Romney. The other shows a continued improvement in how voters judge the state of the nation.”

Discuss this post

Why does either party get all bent out of shape over these polls? Just wait till tomorrow they will be totally different. Everybody knows lying is the new normal in America. Only when Americans wake up and quit buying into these lies, will America be great again. BTW: the media is the worst culprit and all for money. The media is supposed to filter out the lies but they just repeat the lies as truth.

  • 1 vote
Reply#1 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:51 AM EDT

Obama must do better than in his last debate, or he is toast.

However, anything he does will be better than his last debate, so the liberal media will surely guarantee him a win.

But what if Barry comes out swinging as Biden attempted to do? What if Barry smiles, throws up his hands, and laughs while his challenger answers the question?

I understand each candidate will have two minutes to answer the question - can Barry meet this and still answer the query?

A liberal media outlet, a libeal media person who has already stated her dislike for Mitt. Can she and the media be fair and balanced, or will this be a one-sided media circus?

  • 1 vote
#1.2 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:12 PM EDT
Reply

Polls do not vote. People do! Get out the vote America, and be very concerned about the massive voter suppression of the GOP/RNC. This is clearly a clear act of treason!

  • 2 votes
Reply#2 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:21 AM EDT

If polls show the state of the nation getting better why are voters going for Romney? It doesn't make sense. If women go for Romney Obamacare is gone. Women seem to be pretty stupid if that is what they want.

    Reply#3 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:28 AM EDT

    The Sensata Workers in Freeport Illinois had 'Great Expectations.' Not anymore though!

    • 1 vote
    Reply#4 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:53 AM EDT

    The Solyndra workers in California had "Great Expectations". Not anymore though!

    • 2 votes
    #4.1 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:41 AM EDT

    The Enerl1 workers in Indiana had "Great Expectations" Not anymore though!

    • 1 vote
    #4.2 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:43 AM EDT

    The A123 Systems workers in Massachusetts had "Great Expectations". Not anymore though!

    • 1 vote
    #4.3 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:45 AM EDT

    The Abound Solar workers in Colorado had "Great Expectaions" Not anymore though!

    • 1 vote
    #4.4 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:47 AM EDT

    The Beacon Power workers in Massachusetts had "Great Expectaions". Not anymore though!

    • 1 vote
    #4.5 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:52 AM EDT
    Reply

    Nice try Tea Beggers! These Corporations were not outsourced to China. These corporations were not sold off for profit by a very few. Here is a great idea GOP/Tea Beggers" Go help little "Richie Rich' Ryan barg into an empty kitchen, and help little "Richie Rich' Ryan clean already clean pots/pans. What a joke America!

      Reply#6 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:05 PM EDT

      One right wing radio talk show guy in this area who was bent out of shape calling the polls 2 week ago as liberal conspiracy and biased and intent to elect Obama against the wishes of the people is now singing hallelujah to the same poll sourced by the same organizations. This afternoon when l emailed him to find out his apparent 180 degree u-turn. He said because the polls were showing +6 for Obama. Whatever that means. These wing nuts like to eat their cake and have it. Tomorrow after the debate and the polls reverts to its real trajectory they will start their regular whining. Let me assure you nothing has changed so much to date to make a difference in the trajectory of victory for Obama. Instead of 300+ winning margin it may come to 270+ I do not see how Mitt Romney can pull this off. He does not have the venue or the coalition to do it.

        Reply#7 - Tue Oct 16, 2012 6:37 PM EDT
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