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2012: Romney leads in Gallup, Obama leads in OH

Latest polls: Gallup switched its tracking poll to likely voters and now has Romney leading 49-47%. Among registered voters, Obama leads 49-46%.

In the states: OH: CNN/ORC has Obama up 51-47% among likely voters and up 53-43% among registered voters; NH: WMUR/University of New Hampshire has Obama up 47-41%, but Obama lead has shrunk from 15 points in the poll 10 days ago; PA: Siena has Obama up 43-40%.

The pollster for Suffolk doesn’t believe President Obama can win Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, so he won’t be doing any more polling there. Hmmmm…..

“The shift will ‘wipe out’ the 5-point advantage for President Barack Obama among registered voters, according to USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page, because ‘Republicans are more energized and more likely to actually go and vote,’” Mark Blumenthal writes.

“So much for Mitt Romney's plans to compete for Democratic-trending Michigan or Pennsylvania. And what about President Barack Obama's early hopes of fighting it out for Republican-tilting Arizona, Georgia or Texas? Forget them,” AP writes. “The presidential battleground map is as compact as it's been in decades, with just nine states seeing the bulk of candidate visits, campaign ads and get-out-the-vote efforts in the hunt for the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory. That means just a fraction of Americans will determine the outcome of the race for the White House.”

Downballot: In Massachusetts, Scott Brown leads in a WBUR poll 48-45%. Warren had led narrowly in a Western New England poll earlier in the week.

“The National Republican Senatorial Committee criticized Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) today after a report found companies connected to her family received almost $40 million from the federal government,” Roll Call writes. “NRSC Executive Director Rob Jesmer weighed in with the first lengthy criticism of McCaskill from the national party structure since NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) effectively called the race a bad investment in an interview with the Louisville Courier-Journal.”

But: “The story underscores the problem facing national Republicans. They think McCaskill can be defeated, but the problematic Senate campaign of GOP Rep. Todd Akin has left them on the sidelines. Jesmer did not mention Akin in his statement against McCaskill.”