2012: Did the debate change the race’s trajectory?

“Buoyed by a powerful debate showing, Mitt Romney said Thursday he offers ‘prosperity that comes through freedom’ to a country struggling to shed a weak economy. President Barack Obama accused the former Massachusetts governor of running from his own record in pursuit of political power,” AP’s Espo writes. “Both men unleashed new attack ads in the battleground states in a race with little more than a month to run, Obama suggesting Romney couldn’t be trusted with the presidency, and the Republican accusing the president of backing a large tax increase on the middle class. The debate reached 67.2 million viewers, an increase of 28 percent over the first debate in the 2008 presidential campaign.”

Michael Hirsch: “Barack Obama couldn’t be bothered to notice—he seemed to think he was at a White House news conference, not a debate—but while the president was acting so veddy, veddy presidential on Wednesday night, his challenger, Mitt Romney, decisively made his long-anticipated leap to the center. And if the GOP nominee stays there, he may yet have a chance to take Obama’s job away from him.”

Charlie Cook’s not so sure: “It would take a very consequential event to change the trajectory of this race. Time will tell whether Romney’s strong debate performance on Wednesday night was the event that he needed—particularly in swing states such as Ohio. But at least he energized his supporters and sent a clear message that the race is not over. … Romney had a six-week stretch where nothing broke his way. Now we’ll see if his debate performance was a turning point—or a brief interruption—in the campaign narrative.”

Discuss this post

Trajectory? I'd say more of a hiccup...

  • 7 votes
Reply#1 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 9:10 AM EDT

You are right Ursula... I was going to say it was a belch but a hiccup is more astute...

  • 1 vote
#1.1 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 9:13 AM EDT

For Mitt and Ryan, I think beer-fart is more descriptive.

  • 2 votes
#1.2 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 10:09 AM EDT

hahaha. romney is sracthing his head about obamas debate and you know it bothers him. it was too easy.

which mitt will show up at next debate, and will it throw him off balance?

but now smokin joe takes on lyin ryan in a one bout winner take all. let the sparks fly!

  • 2 votes
#1.3 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 10:45 AM EDT

Trajectory? I'd say more of a hiccup...

That remains to be seen. If voters were only taking a very shallow surface view, you may be right. If they are looking deeper, though, I think it will have a more lasting effect.

Mitt Romney demonstrated far more than a command of facts, figures and debating skills. What he accomplished reveals the way he faces challenges, and that is far more important than simply winning this one debate.

Romney worked very hard in preparation. He applied his superior intelligence. He planned ahead accurately and effectively. He executed his plan flawlessly. And those are the characteristics of a true leader.

  • 3 votes
#1.4 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 5:04 PM EDT

Yeah Kannin:

You are in that same mode as Sununu. That's right. Romney is so intelligent now. He has said only intelligent things during the campaign. And Obama is "lazy and disengaged." Yeah, that's right. You bank on that. Let's see Romney field some disagreement. Let him answer the question of whether he has a core - since many have said he doesn't. And let him answer the question of why he isn't giving the rich a tax break since he said he can't get the vote of the 47% because a tax cut would not appeal to them. (Hey, but he's not giving a tax break to the rich.) He'll start to stammer, if past history is any indication. And he will need that "superior intelligence" to keep his various positions straight. He has so many of them on any particular issue. He is completely amoral - a sociopath politician. Sociopaths often look good at first blush. But you keep that soft racism going - just like Sununu.

    #1.5 - Sat Oct 6, 2012 12:37 AM EDT

    Any person can look like the winner of an argument by lying against a person telling the truth. It isn't a challenge to accomplish. It isn't hard to do. The challenge remains in winning an argument against a person telling the truth by telling the truth yourself. Romney didn't do that. He didn't accomplish that. In the end, Obama is going to move in for the political "kill" by trapping Romney within his own lies in front of the American people. Obama will only need to remain truthful and pivot exposing the lies. Obama didn't expect him to latantly lie to the American people. He initially expected him to conceal his position to the American people. Just wait and see....... Romney thinks he was arguing with one his children debating Obama. When it's over, Romney is going to look "long lost stepchild-step parent" after the next debate. Obama now has his number.......and he's getting ready to punch out Romey's time card inthis election.

    • 1 vote
    #1.6 - Sun Oct 7, 2012 11:52 AM EDT

    Ursula,

    Or Mitt's gas expulsion from a different exit........

      #1.7 - Sun Oct 7, 2012 12:08 PM EDT
      Reply

      Rasmussen polls 500 people a day. The numbers Rasmussen puts out are a rolling average of three days. Yesterday's numbers showing the president ahead by 2 included 500 people after the debate. It'll be interesting to see what today and tomorrow show. Today will have 1,000 people polled after the debate and tomorrow all 1,500 will be post-debate.

      • 2 votes
      Reply#2 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 9:13 AM EDT

      I don't trust Rasmussen...his methodology is very suspect...see Nate Silver's blog http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ for more on this...

        #2.1 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 9:15 AM EDT

        Our President’s approval hit 54% yesterday according to Gallup – the highest number since July 2009.

        • 5 votes
        #2.2 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 9:33 AM EDT

        The righties have to believe Rasmussen, after all, it is the one they usually use when they see a gain for their side. That gain usually is on Rasmussen only.

        While Obama didn't do well on the debate it doesn't seem to have hurt him much. Repeat performances such as that, however, make make the race closer. In the end he will win the 270 electoral votes needed and more.

        • 1 vote
        #2.3 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 10:50 AM EDT
        Reply

        Still not buying what Mitt is selling. I could not tell who showed up at this debate, it sure was not the same Mitt who has been campaigning for President for 6 years, and I bet all those 1%ers are kind of dizzy at all the flip and spin, especially concering their own tax breaks. The President lost on style - no doubt about it, but Mitt looked pretty strung out and disconnected which only made me distrust him more. And the lies or if you prefer flip flops were just over the top even for Mitt. I guess Mitt is more confident when he lies, but those of us who remember Mitt's talking points and those who back him won't forget the lies. The bully is not always right and should never, ever win anything. Mitt was a bully, a lying bully to boot. So, no thanks Mitt, still don't want what you think you got.

        • 6 votes
        Reply#3 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 9:28 AM EDT

        That was what got me, how can you just sit there and lie and lie and lie. i understand why the President didn't want to call him on the lies in the first debate. avoid the angry label and all that, but he can't let that happen again. President Obama won on the substantive matters, while Mr. Romney won the appearance portion of the event.

        Also, how can conservatives agree with the positions that Mr. Romney stated he held in the debate? how can you cheer when all the winning exchanges for Mr. Romney were him turning his back on de-regulation, turning around on health care, dropping the tax cuts that he's been preaching? oh, he won the debate, so it isn't about the principles he espouses, just how he talks for the conservatives. No wonder conservatives are failures at governing...

        • 1 vote
        #3.1 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 9:53 AM EDT

        Conservatives don't give a rodent's rear end about anything except getting the black man out of the White House.

        • 3 votes
        #3.2 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 10:59 AM EDT

        Union Bay - I concur with your entire comment, couldn't have said it better.

        • 1 vote
        #3.3 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 2:04 PM EDT

        @ UnionBaby Tennessee,

        If the Coporate tax rate decrease from Clinton's 39% of pre 2000 was decreased to 35% in Bush's 2001 Coporate tax cuts costing us $5 trillion (already calculated) by 2008. And Romney has now proposed a Coporate tax rate decrease to 28% from Bush's present day 35%. How does Romney figure that is deficit neutral???? He's lying out of his a$$. As a matter of fact, Bush's Coporate tax rate decrease was by 4 percentage points. And Romney proposes a coporate tax rate decrease by another 7 percentage points. Romney is going to get his "clock cleaned" within the next debate for quoting that 28% number. Watch and see.....

        • 1 vote
        #3.4 - Sun Oct 7, 2012 12:03 PM EDT
        Reply

        Romney's problem is that today more people are talking about Romney changing his position less than 40 days before the election. It reminds us of CEOs who tell one lie, only to stab us in the back.

        Romney called his own sons liars. It is shameful to air your children's laundry.

        Romney called Big Bird own of his targets. We raised our children watching Big Bird and now you want to kill them? It comes off as a person who doesn't understand the average American family. We can't afford nannies, so if Sesame Street entertains our children for 30 minutes, it's a real life savor for millions of American families.

        Because of this, women in particular are becoming more afraid of Romney and Ryan than they were before the debate.

        The polling numbers after the debate initially went for Romney, but now they are turning against Romney as we see him being more like Bush in 2004.

        Romney spent weeks leading up to the debate saying President Obama would lie. That was the sure sign that Romney was planning to condemn his soul to hell for eternity.

        • 5 votes
        Reply#4 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 9:52 AM EDT

        I don't get to spend much time on these posts; but I check the "temperature" several times a day to see how people are reacting. It is so refreshing to see that Americans are not being fooled by the "false" Romney who appeared at the debate. Keep calling him out on all his "spins of the day"! This man is not for the average American citizen. He is a man driven by "harvesting" American companies for their profits with no regard for the American workers that these companies employ. He and his cronies would set back this economy by exploiting the middle class.

        Obama/Biden

        • 7 votes
        Reply#5 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 10:12 AM EDT

        Donna, I glad you reminded me of that "harvesting" comment of Romney's. First Read presented it as some romantic notion of living off the fat of the land (like George and Lenny) but in truth, Romney's business practice is closer to harvesting organs from a donor. Because when Romney harvests, that company isn't getting up and walking out of the room...

        • 6 votes
        #5.1 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 10:21 AM EDT
        Reply

        Was the debate a game changer? No, not the debate I saw. Is the momentum of the post-debate reaction potentially a game changer? Yes.

        If you didn't watch and just listened after the fact to the on-going commentary, you'd think Romney arrived on an angelic cloud while Obama was burned by holy water rainfall. What I saw was both under-performing past debates in which I've watched each participate. Neither found anything like a natural, comfortable timing with which to spew their well-worn talking points (because, as we all know, these debates are strictly about theatrics as opposed to substance). There weren't any memorable zingers. There wasn't much memorable at all, other than a little clarity on Romney's part that he intends to go after Medicare reductions potentially for anyone under 60. Speaking of which, I'm not sure S&P, Moody's and Fitch would buy off on that as "reform" rather than "default," as my understanding was we could only make major reductions in entitlements effective for people who had not yet reached workforce age. And if any of the three call us for default, that is a game changer (and potentially a game ender).

        I think the blame lies in the over-confidence of the Obama crowd heading into the debate. Then when both floundered, the Obama-favoring talking heads were more than willing to line up in agreement with the Romney-favoring talking heads in calling it a Romney rout. That's the danger of buiilding expectations.

        • 2 votes
        Reply#6 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 10:37 AM EDT

        Ursula-I like your spin on that:) If Romney gets elected, we are all at risk of becoming the donors to the Koch brothers, Cheney's war-profiteers, Adelson, and Grover. Romney should be concerned about the "Grover" on his team and leave Big BIrd and the "good" Grover on PBS for future generations to watch. I have a new grandson and it breaks my heart to think that Romeny would do away with PBS; no Sesame Street, no Arthur. . . How sad.

        • 1 vote
        Reply#7 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 10:38 AM EDT

        How can Romney make any foriegn or domestic economical policies without causing a conflict of interest.

        • 2 votes
        #7.1 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 2:06 PM EDT
        Reply

        Did the debate change the race’s trajectory?

        NO. It was just a feel good moment for the republicans.

        • 2 votes
        Reply#8 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 10:48 AM EDT

        One debate will not change the trajectory of the election, especially when the cold light of day exposes Romney's constant lies and disregard for providing specifics.

        • 1 vote
        Reply#9 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 10:56 AM EDT

        People did you watch the Rachel Maddow show. She put it all into prospective last, she was showing all the incumbent presidents and their first debate. not one won their first debate not even the great Ronald Reagon win his debate, they said he lost. only one president out of 8 debates only one incumbent president won their first and that was Clinton every president before him and since him has lost their debate. SO STOP STRESSING THE WAR IS NOT LOST. THERE IS A NEXT DEBATE

        • 2 votes
        Reply#10 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 11:47 AM EDT

        I think it is more annoyance than stress, I mean even the left leaning news agencies are/were saying Romney won; yes he may have had a better over all presence, but on substance he just pulled the usual flip flops. Saying a person won a debate just on stage presence is like saying I won a debate on astro-physics with Steven Hawking simply because I had a more dynamic presence and I know @!$%# about astro-physics.

        I doubt this debate had much lasting impact on the election, most have made up their minds at this point; I am no Obama sycophant, but I believe he will win by a large margin; most of the voters know that our current problems and/or lack of solving them are due to obstructionism in Washinton, mainly by those whose single most important goal is "too make Obama a one term president".

          #10.1 - Sat Oct 6, 2012 2:56 PM EDT
          Reply

          Funny how the Repugnants gave themselves a fireworks party after the debate with a - how big was the crowd - also funny how we never know exactly how big Mitt and Ryan the Etch-a-Schetch Liars' crowds are; but the next day Obama spoke to 12,000 people at the U of Denver and 30,000 at U of Wisconsin/Madison. Yes, the Prez was off his game - rest assured he won't be again. Let ol' Mitt enjoy his "win" - it's the only one he's going to get.

          • 2 votes
          Reply#11 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 12:49 PM EDT

          Nope...Did not change the trejectory. Mitt still flip-flops, and we still know it.

          It’s not that I dislike Mitt Romney, it’s just, well geese…

          Flip…Mitt Romney said…The Middle East will "remain an unsolved problem... and we will kick that ball down the field". He dismissed Israel's concerns about Iran as mere "noise" that he prefers to "block out." And at a time when Israel needs America to stand with it, he declined to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

          Flop…At the Fox News Google debate in September of 2011, Governor Romney was asked how he would address the middle east given the new realities in the region. He answered that the first action should be to ensure that everyone knows that the US will stand shoulder to shoulder with Israel and not let any light be shown between the two of you.

          Flip…Mitt Romney said…"There are 47% who are with him(Obama)” (lower income families, elderly, veterans, disabled Americans) who are dependent upon government,” Mr Romney said in the video that his role "is not to worry about those people”.

          Flop…“It’s not those at the low end and it’s certainly not for those at the very high end. It’s for the great middle class, the 80 to 90 percent of us in this country.”

          Flip…Mitt Romney said…”I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country, and you will never see me wavering on that”.

          Flop…"I believe people understand that I'm firmly pro-life.

          Flipity-Flop…“When I am asked if I am pro-choice or pro-life, I say I refuse to accept either label.

          Flip/Flop/Flip…On stem cell research…‘Look, you don’t have to think about this stem cell research as a moral issue, because we kill the embryos after 14 days.’

          Flip…Mitt Romney said…“The middle class should not be expecting a cut in taxes because I'm also going to lower deductions and exemptions,”

          Flop…“My own view with regards to tax policy is that we ought to provide help to the people that have been hurt most by the Obama economy, and that’s the middle class.”

          Flip…Mitt Romney said… Millionaire Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said Wednesday that he was seeking better tax policies for people in the middle class like himself.

          Fact…The former Massachusetts governor has a net worth estimated at 250 million dollars.

          Flip…“I think I’m best off to describe my own positions. And my positions, I think I’ve just described for you – secure the border, employment verification and no special pathway to citizenship.”

          Flop…Mitt Romney said illegal immigrants should have a chance to obtain citizenship.”

          Flipity Flop…Mitt actually employed a contractor, of whom had 5 illegal immigrants working at his site, on his own ranch.

          Flip…Gov. Mitt Romney (R) signed a bill Wednesday (4-12-06) requiring all Massachusetts residents to purchase health insurance.

          Flop…He’s now a critic of his own biggest achievement.

          Worth Repeating…

          Flip…Mitt Romney said… Millionaire Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said Wednesday that he was seeking better tax policies for people in the middle class like himself.

          Fact…The former Massachusetts governor has a net worth estimated at 250 million dollars.

          Mitt’s last words before killing of Osama Bin Laden…”It’s not worth moving heaven and earth just trying to catch one man.”

          Mitt’s first words after killing of Osama Bin Laden…”Of course I would have given that order, even Jimmy Carter would’ve given that order.”

          On second thought, I do dislike this man.

          • 1 vote
          Reply#12 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 2:04 PM EDT

          When you ascribe Obama's blunders to Romney in the above; was that a simple mistake or a deliberate lie?

          • 3 votes
          #12.1 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 5:38 PM EDT
          Reply

          - A key element of liberal, big-government, strategy is the portrayal of their candidate as a compassionate intellectual, in tune with the masses. Whereas, the conservative candidate is portrayed as far less intelligent and selectively focused on interest groups intent on restricting the role of government to negatively impact society.

          - Liberals are masters at pointing out actions, behaviors, mannerisms that indicate their opponents are out-of-touch and lack a necessary level intellect. Regarding the former, Romney is being attacked for being out of touch with main stream society. He's narrow-minded. He's uninspiring. He's ruthless. He's wealthy. He's male. He's white. He's Mormon. These attacks will continue to be effective. However, regarding the latter, Romney being intellectually deficient is not working. Wednesday's debate decisively demonstrated an intellectual imbalance to the detriment of liberal strategy.

          - The intellect reversal is now cast in stone. The liberal intelligentsia has been deeply wounded and admonished. This may very well undermine core support from within the liberal left and fracture liberal solidarity. This is not to say the attacks on Romney will subside... they will intensify. The liberal zealots are furious and will gerrymander "spears of fear" into the hearts of the masses. The conservative zealots will respond with renewed enthusiasm. It forecasts continued polarization and stagnation from zealots on both extremes.

          • 4 votes
          Reply#13 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 2:52 PM EDT

          President Obama was unable to rely on his biased media or anyone else for support, only his words in describing and defending his actions as President of the United States. He stumbled and fell flat on his face because he for a rare occasion had to tell the truth to the nation, without placing blame on anybody else for his lack of prudent decisions in regards to our economy. He squirmed and was uncomfortable, and for good reason....he is a failure and could not use charisma to jive his way out of his own messes and failures. He will be more prepared during his next debate, in regards to not stuttering or looking at his feet, however, no matter how the media or anybody else tries to bias the debate, the facts and the truth will prevail and again this nation will see how he is a failure in regards to foreign policy as well as economic policies. He is also a failure in regards to his lack of safety to these United States of America and our Consitution. As the saying goes....it all comes out in the wash.

          • 1 vote
          Reply#14 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 5:38 PM EDT

          It may not be the victory Romney was hoping for. His comments about the tax cut make him susceptible to the same old complaint about Romney: he lies!

            Reply#15 - Fri Oct 5, 2012 7:57 PM EDT

            Hey I've got good news for all you liberal jackasses... your boy is a sure thing so y'all can just sleep in on November 6th! There's no need to bother going to your local polling place, just stay home, catch some z's, hit your crack pipes, collect your welfare checks and watch the results on your favorite liberal media TV station (at your Republican friends house 'cause we know your lazy ass can't afford cable) and enjoy! We noble, honorable right-wingers promise we won't all go out in record numbers and vote for Romney because we would just hate to turn your socialistic, drug-fueled, entitlement lives topsy-turvy. We promise... LIBERAL SUCKERS!!!!!

            ROMNEY/RYAN 2012 - BELIEVE IN AMERICA

            • 3 votes
            Reply#16 - Sat Oct 6, 2012 2:02 PM EDT

            I'm voting for Romney, nothing will change that. I invite everyone else to join me. Thanks for your consideration.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#17 - Sun Oct 7, 2012 1:17 AM EDT

            It's pretty evident that Obama brought nothing to the game, because he had no game to bring. Clint Eastwood and the New Yorker were right. Obama IS the empty chair.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#18 - Mon Oct 8, 2012 1:46 AM EDT

            "On second thought, I do dislike this man."

            So then by all means do your thing which is to demean, degrade, and denigrate him with a lot of Obama Campaign attacks which are for the most part a lot of BS and you know it or should know it...you sound just like Stephanie Cutter who is known as "Baghdad Bob's Kid Sister" because she has about as much credibility as her boss David Axelrod

            • 1 vote
            Reply#19 - Mon Oct 8, 2012 10:35 AM EDT

            I love the narrative that Romney and Ryan lie more than President Obama. What moxy! Obama has presented no plan that comes remotely close to solving any problem even once over the past four years. He lies and cherry picks misleading pseudo data points every time he speaks, and yet he has half of the US believing that his oppenent is more full of crap than he is. His handlers ought to be very proud.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#20 - Mon Oct 8, 2012 10:43 AM EDT

            "I love the narrative that Romney and Ryan lie more than President Obama.:

            Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Stephaine Cutter continously accuse Romney/Ryan of lying but yet they have both been caught lying in the news lately....especially Stephanie Cutter aka Baghdad Bob's kid sister

            • 1 vote
            Reply#21 - Mon Oct 8, 2012 12:27 PM EDT
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