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2012: Obama leads in OH, FL

The Washington Post: "President Obama has grabbed a significant lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio and holds a slender edge in Florida, according to two new polls by the Washington Post that indicate there are fresh hurdles in the way of the Republican nominee’s best route to victory in the Electoral College. Among likely voters, Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio by 52 to 44 percent. In Florida, the president is up 51 to 47 percent, a numerical but not statistically significant edge. Among all registered Florida voters, Obama is up nine percentage points. The new numbers come one week after a Washington Post poll in Virginia showing Obama with a clear lead there. More than half of all money spent in the campaign has focused on these three states, and many analysts say Romney has to win two of the three to capture the White House.

Nate Silver: “The polling at this stage in the election cycle has been reasonably predictive. Since 1936, of the 19 candidates who led in the polls at this point, 18 won the popular vote (Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 is the exception), and 17 won the Electoral College (Dewey, again, and Al Gore in 2000). Even eliminating the candidates with clear double-digit leads, the front-runner’s record is 8 wins out of 10 in the Electoral College, or a batting average of 80 percent.”