After the House Republicans failed to pass the farm bill yesterday, look for polls to show Republicans losing ground in Iowa.

Farmers in Wisconsin are furious at House Republicans right now.

Grimey,

How about the Real Clear Politics map?

RCP (Average of polls) as of 9/20/2012 After Conventions, before 1st Debate
Wisconsin just moved from Tossup to Lean Obama (sorry Ryan)
8 Tossup States: Obama leads in 7, Romney leads in 1.
Delegates: Obama = Solid(142)+Likely(37)+Lean(68) = 247 +Tossup(85) = 332
Delegates: Romney = Solid(76)+Likely(74)+Lean(41) = 191 +Tossup(15) = 206
Total Delegates: [332+206 = 538] Win = 270

Hi Dennis...

Yeah...this map from Mark and Domenico is pretty similar to the RCP map. I think Wisconsin and Iowa are the only difference. I don't know how RCP decides when to move a state, but I think that Marquette University poll (Obama +14) might have skewed the results for Wisconsin a bit. 4 polls all sitting between an Obama lead of 3 and 7. I think I'd still keep it at a toss-up right now. But, eh...that's just my opinion. I still don't see this election as over. I think it will be closer than 2008.

Just my thought here...but I think the reason we are seeing a lot of volatility in the polls is that the pollsters aren't sure how to weight them. The turnout for 2012 is NOT going to be like 2008...I think that was just a perfect storm that won't be replicated any time soon. However, I don't think turnout is going to be like 2010 either. It is going to be somewhere in between...and that is a large spread.

Always enjoy talking polls and statistics with you Dennis.

Have a good weekend!

Grimey,

Something else to think about … pollsters say that polls are less reliable than ever thanks to cell phones. Not that they aren’t calling them but that people aren’t answering (unknown name, number).

Have a good weeend yourself !!

Debbie, thanks for the update. I was wondering what the aftermath would be of leaving that until after the election. I was so mad at Boehner yesterday (more so than the average day!)

Gotta love Utah! Our color never changes no matter who is running. They color our state in with a Red Sharpie!

Obama/Biden 2012!

I think I know who is going to win. I do think that this will be a very very tight race. Perhaps not with the actual electoral college votes but within each state. For example Washington state is a very blue state. In the 04 Governor election that was probably one of the closest races ever and even had a couple of recounts. I think this is going to be a very tight election in the long run.

Again I think I know who is going to win but I'll keep that to myself until election day when I cast my vote.

I'll say it: President Obama has it in the bag. It is no longer a question of who is going to win: it is only a matter of by how much will our president be reelected.

Read 'em and weep, teabaggers.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

http://www.rove.com/election

http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

I still think this thing is going to hinge on GOTV.

Then again playing your GOTV game from a polling advantage is a good place to be.

spot on JoAnne. Although historically the debates have always been a pivot point possibility, i don't see a chance in hell of Mr. Romney doing anything in the debates to change people's minds, and vice versa for Pres. Obama.

Were the polls heading in the other direction, my wife and i would frantically be trying to figure out the cheapest way to Canada posthaste...

JoAnne, I've been on record as saying many time that the only poll that counts is the one in November. I mean that for two reasons: first, it's the last poll taken but the only one truly counted; second, if a person allows themselves to get complacent because of good news about how their candidate is doing, then they slow down in their efforts and support - and that could create real issues when the voting occurs.

Joanne- when Spanky et al argued in July and August that the polls didn't mean anything, I agreed with them. Polls before Labor Day were meaningless, we needed to wait until about 10 days after the conventions to get a feel for where things really stood. While I did jump the gun on my own timetable declaring the race over when Willard did not take a lead after his convention (even Michael Dukakis took a lead but not Willard), the new polling bears this out. If they want to hang their hat on the Gallop tracking poll, I'll try to humor them but the battleground state polls show that it is game over!

If I had a dream to be President for at least 5 years, if not longer, and saw poll numbers like this, I would be campaigning morning, noon and night. I'd go anywhere I could in the swing states and talk to voters one on one if that is what it took. I'd lick envelopes and put up yard signs. What does Mitt seem to spend his time doing? Having fundraisers and about half the public events that the President (who has a day job). And Ann complains about how much hard work it is.

Great points, everyone. I have to admit at this time in 2010 I looked at some pretty negative polling for Democrats and stuck by my predictions that Democratic losses in Congress would be "at the high end of normal for a midterm election." Then again I was much closer to correct than was Dick Morris for example, who predicted Democratic losses would "dwarf" the 116 seats lost in 1894. Hannity was on that bandwagon as well.

I think the extensive time Mitt is spending at fundraising says something important...his cash advantage is fading, and fading fast. It's important to note that he didn't win the primary season by spending a little more money than his opponents...in many cases he'd bury his main opponents as much as 7:1 under campaign cash. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/19/romney-and-allies-outspend-santorum-and-backers-7-1-in-illinois/

While it was obvious from the beginning that Willard would be able to outspend the President thanks to Citizens United's legalized bribery, but it was also a given he wouldn't have such a massive monetary advantage.