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Subscribe to RSSAccording to the latest NBC/WSJ poll, President Obama had a five-point lead when survey participants were asked who they would vote for, and 42 percent of those surveyed believe the economy will get better under Obama. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.
Fueled by increased optimism about the economy and nation’s direction, President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 points among likely voters and now sees his job-approval rating reaching the 50 percent threshold for the first time since March, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
The survey – which was conducted after the two party conventions and the political firestorm over last week’s U.S. Embassy attacks, but before Romney’s controversial comments about the 47 percent of the country “who are dependent on government” – shows the percentages believing that the country is headed in the right direction and thinking that the economy will improve at their highest levels since 2009.
In the presidential horse race, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden get the support of 50 percent of likely voters, while Romney and running mate Paul Ryan get 45 percent.
National Review and Bloomberg View's Ramesh Ponnuru, Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz and The Hotline's Reid Wilson take a look at the latest numbers out of the NBC, Wall Street Journal and Marist poll and talk about how battleground states may play out for the presidential candidates.
NBC/WSJ poll: Obama's approval on foreign policy drops
Among a wider sample of registered voters, the president’s lead is 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent – up from Obama’s 4-point edge last month, 48 percent to 44 percent.
“It’s clear to me that Barack Obama has moved a … step ahead,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
Evan Vucci / AP
President Barack Obama waves as he boards Air Force One on Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2012 in Andrews Air Force Base, Md.
Yet Hart cautions, “It’s a step and only a step.”
Read the full poll here (.pdf)
For his part, McInturff adds that the presidential race may very well have seen an inflection point. “The president is in a stronger position than he was before the convention.”
But noting similarities between the current numbers and those from the 2004 George W. Bush vs. John Kerry race, he urges that this contest could be just as competitive.
“If you look at ’04 as a model, ’04 was really close. And that’s how we should continue to think about the campaign.”
Economic optimism on the rise
According to the survey, 39 percent of registered voters say the country is on the right track, versus 55 percent who say it’s on the wrong track.
The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd reports on a statement that may significantly damage Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.
That right-track number is a 7-point increase from August, and it’s the highest percentage on this question since Sept. 2009.
Forty-two percent of voters also believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months, which is a 6-point jump from August, and a 15-point rise from July.
NBC/WSJ poll: Optimism in Obama presidency increases
What’s more, 47 percent of registered voters approve of the president’s handling of the economy – up 3 points from last month. Obama’s overall job-approval rating stands at 50 percent for the first time since March.
And 38 percent say the country is better off than it was when he became president, which is a 7-point increase from August. But a plurality of voters – 41 percent – maintain that the country is worse off; 21 percent say it’s in the same place.
Obama vs. Romney on the issues
While none of these numbers is ideal for a president facing re-election, Obama is now tied with Romney (43 percent to 43 percent) on which candidate would be better on the economy. In July, Romney held a 6-point advantage on this question.
Hart, the Democratic pollster, says this finding is potentially ominous for Romney. “Simply put, if Romney doesn’t win on dealing with the economy, he doesn’t win.”
On other issues, Obama leads Romney on dealing with taxes (45 percent to 39 percent) and on dealing with Medicare (47 percent to 37 percent).
And the president is ahead of his Republican challenger on three character traits – being a good commander in chief (45 percent to 38 percent), dealing with issues of concern to women (54 percent to 26 percent), and looking out for the middle class (53 percent to 34 percent).
NBC's Chuck Todd says, "Mitt Romney is not a good campaigner" and still must answer questions regarding his comments that were caught on tape. A Morning Joe panel then debates whether Team Romney needs a campaign shakeup.
Comparing 2012 to 2004
Although Obama enjoys these advantages over Romney, the numbers in the NBC/WSJ poll bear a striking resemblance to those from 2004, when Bush narrowly beat Kerry.
And that has McInturff, the GOP pollster, cautioning that this year’s race could be equally close, despite Obama’s current lead.
Read the full poll here (.pdf)
Indeed, in the Sept. 2004 NBC/WSJ poll, 39 percent believed the country was on the right track (versus 39 percent now); 43 percent thought the economy would improve in the next year (versus 42 percent now); and Bush led Kerry by three points among likely voters (versus Obama’s 5-point edge now).
The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 12-16 of 900 registered voters (including 270 by cell phone), and it has margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points. In that sample, the survey also identified 736 likely voters, and the margin of error there is plus-minus 3.6 percentage points.
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Damn but I can already hear the screams and howls of protest from our dear friends on the Right. Damn, this has really gotta hurt bad.
Doesn't hurt a bit. Enjoy the ride lefty.
NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads Romney nationally by 5 points! WHAT B.S!
The first picture in the article says it all, Obama leaving on another campaign trip while the embassies burn. Thanks Americans for another wonderful trip and your endearing support.
Everyday I listen to Romney, are we in Sarah Palin territory? I find it hard to believe people are going to vote for this guy.
It will come down to the debates........That is when all the undecided start paying close attention. If both the Republicans and Democrats are honest with themselves everyone knows turnout is the key......Let's face facts....FACT: Democrats will vote for Democrats and Obama......FACT: Republicans will vote for Republicans and Romney..........So the vote is a tie.....47% Republican and 47% Democrats (=) 94% of the vote. (TURN OUT IS THE KEY) That leaving 6% of Americans that will elect our next President. That is why Obama is up 2 points or Romney is up 2 points or tied depending on which poll you like...........FACT: The Independent voter will elect our next president......I am a registered Independent.....I am conservative for the most part but I have voted on some liberal issues..........So if you are a Democrat or a Republican it is your job to convince me to vote for the person you support.......I will tell you this, I am paying attention to the ECONOMY, the High UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 8.1%, The National DEBT 16+ Trillion dollars, Illegal IMMIGRATION, The High Gas Prices in my state $3.74 per gallon and going up......I hope you get my point which is If Obama or Romney does not talk about the issues that affect me and satisfy me with their answers that person will not get my vote. As of today I will be voting for ROMNEY.......The debates will lock in my vote.
Poor Ole Mitt "F da Poor" Romney. He is starting to suffer from that Republican TeaBilly Conservative “Foot in Da Mouth Disease”. It’s very Predictable, Incurable and Contagious.
Let that be a Lesson to them.
You BetCha…Fer Sure.
jstdafacts, do you ever do that, read just the facts? Or do you simply rely on listening to soundbytes, because it doesn't hurt your head as much to read an actual article?
Who will the Tea Baggers, Conservatives, Right wingers blame if the GOP wins the white house, senate, and congress......you know like they had from 2001 to 2007..guess they will have to allow another terrorist attack to happen so they can blame it on them.
Yo,
Myth "F da Poor" Romney and Paul " Middle Class Warfare" Ryan.........Good Luck getting the other 99% to vote for ya. You BetCha…..Fer Sure.
I wish I could vote more than once for this comment
Romney's comment "47 percent of the country “who are dependent on government”... Romney thankfully just lost the election with this comment. Romney is TOAST along with the Senate and House Republicans. Obama's polls are going to go sky high now after Romney's comment.
Mo(ron) if 47% weren't already on the Obama train I will ki$$ your a$$ under the traffic light at the White House and give you 30 minutes to draw a crowd.
Folks, do ya ever Wonder why all of these Republican TeaBillly Conservative Extremist Whackjobs walk Funny?
Because they are Constantly shooting themselves in da Foot.....LOL
You BetCha.....Fer Sure.
Hey, now you're being cruel. We just look out for our Right Wing cousins in their hour of despair.
Hmmm, it would appear that the wheels are beginning to come of the Willardo Clown Car also known as a presidential campaign. This could spiral into a crash and burn if this draft dodging bum doesn't get all his lies straight.
Not really sure how this one poll comes up the the numbers they do when all other polls have it at a dead heat . Heck the guy that has gotten it right over the last 8 to 10 years Rasmussen has it as the ( daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday{ today} shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided)
Polls are worthless ammo for pea brains on both sides of the fence.
Yo Mitt "F da Poor" Romney..............Watch that 47% become 74% in Favor of President Obama.
You Gotta Love It.
You BetCha....Fer Sure.
Five points don't mean Zip. That could change to Five points behind overnight. If Obama got our soldiers out of Afghanistan before the election, he would win in a landslide. And if he canceled that 1.6 Billion Dollars that he was going to send to Egypt and the Millions more to Lybia, that would gain him a lot of points.
Why would he pull troops out of Afghanistan? He promised all troops were going to be pulled by Aug. of 2010,
how did that work out? Obama promised to close Gitmo, how did that work out?
Under former President George W. Bush, 575 American soldiers died and fewer than 3,000 were wounded in Afghanistan. This means under Obama, at least 1,405 soldiers have died and nearly 15,000 additional soldiers have been wounded, which means 70% of the deaths and nearly 80% of the injuries in Afghanistan have occurred under Obama’s watch.
In 2010, Obama sent 33,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan as part of the “surge,” and Americans have been received with more hostility with each passing day. In June, Obama announced he would accelerate the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and America would transfer security duties to the Afghans in 2014.
Because Obama is a Democrat, the media has been reluctant to shine more of a light on Afghanistan's destabilization under Obama. Perhaps the media is afraid that such reports would make Americans question whether Obama has mismanaged the Afghanistan war like he has the economy. Or maybe the media does not want to report on anything that would make Democrats seem weak on national security, as was the case when Bill Clinton was president.
For whatever reason, the mainstream media is not reporting the striking increase in deaths and casualties in Afghanistan under Obama, again helping Obama through their omissions.
There is a Democrat oversample of +5%. For this poll to be accurate, voter turnout on November 6th would have to match the poll sample. Anyone who thinks that Democrats will actually outnumber Republicans at the polls by 5% is dreaming. If you check Gallup who just came out with their latest poll today, the race is at Obama up 1%, and the most recent Rasmussen poll (which by the way was the most accurate in 2008) came in with Romney up 2%. You can all keep buying into the media spin if you want, but this race is far from over.
“Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws."
- Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
Optimism on the rise? Based on what?...In the past two weeks it's been reported that unemployment is worse, inflation is higher, economy slowing down again, U.S. troops are being killed by "friendlies", WH ignores warnings and our ambassador is murdered, business returns are lower, the Fed has to pump more money, Obama snubs our only true ally in the Middle East and reclassifies Egypt from ally to enemy, Continues to give lip service to Iran, and Ignores the fact that Russia is reconstituting its cold war axis.....This survey is so bogus and typical of NBC/MSNBC...Americans have transformed presidential elections from "America Ideals" to "American Idols"....I hope everyone feels "optimism" as unemployment goes over 9% again, GM factories finally close but Chicago teachers get their 15% pay raise for not educating our children.
It will come down to the debates........That is when all the undecided start paying close attention. If both the Republicans and Democrats are honest with themselves everyone knows turnout is the key......Let's face facts....FACT: Democrats will vote for Democrats and Obama......FACT: Republicans will vote for Republicans and Romney..........So the vote is a tie.....47% Republican and 47% Democrats (=) 94% of the vote. (TURN OUT IS THE KEY) That leaving 6% of Americans that will elect our next President. That is why Obama is up 5 points or Romney is up 2 points or tied depending on which poll you like...........FACT: The Independent voter will elect our next president......I am a registered Independent.....I am conservative for the most part but I have voted on some liberal issues..........So if you are a Democrat or a Republican it is your job to convince me to vote for the person you support.......I will tell you this, I am paying attention to the ECONOMY, the High UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 8.1%, The National DEBT 16+ Trillion dollars, Illegal IMMIGRATION, The High Gas Prices in my state $3.74 per gallon and going up......I hope you get my point which is If Obama or Romney does not talk about the issues that affect me and satisfy me with their answers that person will not get my vote. As of today I will be voting for ROMNEY.......The debates will lock in my vote.
and you dems do it jst from something in the rear ewwwu really need the clinic
NO Romney leads Obama by 6 points that sounds better to me. anybody can say anything.
Pravda is out there again. It's gonna be great when Romney overcomes all of the commie media.
WAKE UP, Willard's back hurts because of wheel barrows full of money he is schlepping to Switzerland, Cayman Islands and anywhere else he can weasel out of paying the taxes he owes.
Avarice is a sin also, oh ye jealous one.
You need to take a little look at the odumbo administration if you want to see people running away from paying taxes that they owe. Like ron kirk, nancy kellefer, and good old Tim Geithner; you know the head of the IRS. You can rest assured that if Romney owed any taxes the liberal IRS and wanta-be new medias would be all over him.
Everyone is worse off under Obama's administration except those looking for free handouts. Enough, folks. Vote Romney!
Sure lady, if you say so. That's good enough for me.
@Jan,
I got an 8.7 percent return on my 401k last year.
You have no idea of which you speak.
I must be the only exception I guess. I'm making more money then I ever have - by a ton! Only time I ever got a "handout" was unemployment when they shut down the factory. And that was while Bush was President.
National Barack Channel. No bigger set of pom poms anywhere in media
Care for a tissue pal???
For the amount he is going to be crying come the second week of November he needs a crying towel.
32% strong-ish Democrats vs. 25% strong-ish Republicans and Obama can only get a 5 point lead. Great work NBC. (sarcasm)
Strong Democrat ............................................... 22
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 10
Strictly Independent .......................................... 16
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 7
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 2
Not sure ........................................................... 3
In the real world:
"Obama's convention bounce vanishes in Gallup poll"
"Gallup's seven-day rolling average indicates that 47% of registered voters supporting Obama and 46% supporting Romney, returning the race back to narrow, pre-convention margins."
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/18/obamas-convention-bump-vanishes/?hpt=hp_t2