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Subscribe to RSSAccording to the latest NBC/WSJ poll, President Obama had a five-point lead when survey participants were asked who they would vote for, and 42 percent of those surveyed believe the economy will get better under Obama. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.
Fueled by increased optimism about the economy and nation’s direction, President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 points among likely voters and now sees his job-approval rating reaching the 50 percent threshold for the first time since March, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
The survey – which was conducted after the two party conventions and the political firestorm over last week’s U.S. Embassy attacks, but before Romney’s controversial comments about the 47 percent of the country “who are dependent on government” – shows the percentages believing that the country is headed in the right direction and thinking that the economy will improve at their highest levels since 2009.
In the presidential horse race, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden get the support of 50 percent of likely voters, while Romney and running mate Paul Ryan get 45 percent.
National Review and Bloomberg View's Ramesh Ponnuru, Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz and The Hotline's Reid Wilson take a look at the latest numbers out of the NBC, Wall Street Journal and Marist poll and talk about how battleground states may play out for the presidential candidates.
NBC/WSJ poll: Obama's approval on foreign policy drops
Among a wider sample of registered voters, the president’s lead is 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent – up from Obama’s 4-point edge last month, 48 percent to 44 percent.
“It’s clear to me that Barack Obama has moved a … step ahead,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
Evan Vucci / AP
President Barack Obama waves as he boards Air Force One on Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2012 in Andrews Air Force Base, Md.
Yet Hart cautions, “It’s a step and only a step.”
Read the full poll here (.pdf)
For his part, McInturff adds that the presidential race may very well have seen an inflection point. “The president is in a stronger position than he was before the convention.”
But noting similarities between the current numbers and those from the 2004 George W. Bush vs. John Kerry race, he urges that this contest could be just as competitive.
“If you look at ’04 as a model, ’04 was really close. And that’s how we should continue to think about the campaign.”
Economic optimism on the rise
According to the survey, 39 percent of registered voters say the country is on the right track, versus 55 percent who say it’s on the wrong track.
The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd reports on a statement that may significantly damage Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.
That right-track number is a 7-point increase from August, and it’s the highest percentage on this question since Sept. 2009.
Forty-two percent of voters also believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months, which is a 6-point jump from August, and a 15-point rise from July.
NBC/WSJ poll: Optimism in Obama presidency increases
What’s more, 47 percent of registered voters approve of the president’s handling of the economy – up 3 points from last month. Obama’s overall job-approval rating stands at 50 percent for the first time since March.
And 38 percent say the country is better off than it was when he became president, which is a 7-point increase from August. But a plurality of voters – 41 percent – maintain that the country is worse off; 21 percent say it’s in the same place.
Obama vs. Romney on the issues
While none of these numbers is ideal for a president facing re-election, Obama is now tied with Romney (43 percent to 43 percent) on which candidate would be better on the economy. In July, Romney held a 6-point advantage on this question.
Hart, the Democratic pollster, says this finding is potentially ominous for Romney. “Simply put, if Romney doesn’t win on dealing with the economy, he doesn’t win.”
On other issues, Obama leads Romney on dealing with taxes (45 percent to 39 percent) and on dealing with Medicare (47 percent to 37 percent).
And the president is ahead of his Republican challenger on three character traits – being a good commander in chief (45 percent to 38 percent), dealing with issues of concern to women (54 percent to 26 percent), and looking out for the middle class (53 percent to 34 percent).
NBC's Chuck Todd says, "Mitt Romney is not a good campaigner" and still must answer questions regarding his comments that were caught on tape. A Morning Joe panel then debates whether Team Romney needs a campaign shakeup.
Comparing 2012 to 2004
Although Obama enjoys these advantages over Romney, the numbers in the NBC/WSJ poll bear a striking resemblance to those from 2004, when Bush narrowly beat Kerry.
And that has McInturff, the GOP pollster, cautioning that this year’s race could be equally close, despite Obama’s current lead.
Read the full poll here (.pdf)
Indeed, in the Sept. 2004 NBC/WSJ poll, 39 percent believed the country was on the right track (versus 39 percent now); 43 percent thought the economy would improve in the next year (versus 42 percent now); and Bush led Kerry by three points among likely voters (versus Obama’s 5-point edge now).
The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 12-16 of 900 registered voters (including 270 by cell phone), and it has margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points. In that sample, the survey also identified 736 likely voters, and the margin of error there is plus-minus 3.6 percentage points.
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sad lot of idiots in this nation,if o-nooo would take all of your cash and give out corn- filled dog turds, the media they watch would convince them to stand in line for one.follow a total failure? nobody to cry to but yourself.
This NBC poll sample was 42% Democrat, 37% Republican.....
+5 Dem slant....not as bad as the WaPost poll..... all depends on turnout, of course.
"margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points" yes , but only if if the voter turnout by Party mirrors the sample...
If you know how these polls are created, they actually compensate for voter demographics, including political lean. Based on that, both the 42% democrat and 37% voting preference must have been reduced, because there is considerably more than just 21% unaffiliated voters, not registered in either party.
Hey. I know....let's base our votes on soundbites, internet "news"stories, and biased generalities about the "other" party.
It worked for Rome.
Why aren't they telling you about the Rasumssen poll that shows Romney ahead by 2! Instead, they quote some off-the-wall poll.
They could also quote the last Fox News poll, which also shows Obama ahead by 5 points...
But of course Fox News is also off-the-wall...
That was a few weeks ago!
We can't be so fixated on our desire to preserve the rights of ordinary Americans."
- Bill Clinton, USA Today on 3/11/93,
“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
- Henry Ford
I continue to get amused by how many conservatives call this WALL STREET JOURNAL sponsored poll 'liberal.'
(WSJ is owned and controlled by Newscorps, i.e. your favorite Australian immigrant, Rupert Murdoch)
President Obama has my support, I do want to see him address the issue of deficit spending more vigorously...I believe he will but he must do so with all members of congress, not just the ones who actually come to work. The obstructionist, both democrats and republicans have to put aside partisanship and come together for the welfare of our nation. They were elected to serve the people and they should do that.
Yeah, just like he did in 08'? LOL! Lied then, will lie now!
i hope you can live with what is being created with Obama as President after the next four years. He is not what you think he is.
Once again NBC has committed polling fraud - a string of such outrageous sampling errors to produce a result that is not true. This is becoming a consistent problem with the NBC/WSJ poll.
- Oversampled Democrats once again - particularly those who have strong feelings/allegiances for the party - by 4 percentage points
- Overall sampling of Democrats was PLUS FIVE PERCENTAGE POINTS which is exactly the difference of the overall results of the poll in favor of Obama!
- Oversampled previous Obama voters over McCain voters - shows Democrat bias in the polling
- Surveyed REGISTERED VOTERS, not likely voters - one of the highest false results in polling you can get
- Under reports unemployed in sampling - if unemployed is minimum of 8%, then sampling should have shown this representation, but it under samples by TWO PERCENTAGE POINTS
- Under samples hispanics
- Over samples blacks
This poll and all results are invalid and irrelevant - this is NBC - owned by GE (which is a major campaign contributor to the Obama campaign and has not paid any income taxes in the prior year) - this is practically a poll done by the Democrat party
Baggers and the GNOP - PANIC!!!!!1
lol you libs the sampling on these polls are heavy on the democrat side over sampling is good make you feel good come election day we shall see obama loses by 7 points any bets on this?
It's not our fault they cant find anyone that will say they are a republican. Maybe it was the way let a bunch of bigot tea baggers over run their party with just 10% of the population.
"Today, America would be outraged if U.N. troops entered Los Angeles to restore order. Tomorrow they will be grateful! This is especially true if they were told that there were an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by the World Government."
- Henry Kissinger, Bilderberger Conference in Evians, France, 1991
SOUND FAMILIAR???
Gosh, Gallup has the race within one point and Rasmussen (consistently more accurate) has Romney up by two. I guess the analysis could be "people are tired of Obama's poor handling of the economy and his convention bounce has completely collapsed". That would be another way of interpreting the polls (logical but not to the liking of the biased media).
If Odummy is re-elected, he better learn to work with a republican senate and house like Clinton or it's going to be a long 4 years for him.
It has been a long 4 years already with the obstuctionist TeaPublicans willing to crash the economy rather than give Obama any victory. Want to know why we aren't doing better? Look at your buddies in Congress - the anti-American TeaPublicans.
I think you are pretty naive--if they thought it would better our situation I am sure the Rep. would go along with it. someone has to be able to smell what is going on. We are so in debt now we will never get it paid and our dollar is worth nothing.
We'll see won't we.
We have reached a tipping point. NBC news spent over 10 minutes tonight leading with the latest Romney debacle in the most negative light. You will continue to see an eroision of support for the fraudulent Romney.
Free Food Stamps for you, if you vote for Obama
since everyone in the red states are on government assistance I guess they will be voting Obama too!!!
@ dobi-1146228: you make a very good Romeny supporter. Just like Romney....you don't say anything about what he'll do, or why we should elect him. But instead whine, complain and blame.
Obumbum is a lying snake and his background proves it. He's not fulfilled one promise to make this country better and if he gets back in we might just as well pass over our paychecks and bank accounts to the gov't.
Stop listening to fox; they make you sound out of touch and ridiculous.
For me it comes down to one thing. Do I want more government in my life or less. The answer is less. As to the press reports and talking heads, they make no difference. Is either candidate better than the other? Probably not, I regard all politicians as professional liars. I just want less interference in my life. No one is going to change anyone's mind here. Some will vote for one or the other and their minds are set and others, being disgusted with the whole process will not vote at all.
What is amazing is that Romney is even this close! Romney is a joke. A pampered, privaleged, entitled, spoiled brat who has been defered to all of his life. When he has to present his positions or plans he refuses because the 47% of America that are "takers" just can't understand his remarkable brilliance! What a moron
And this differs from Obama how?
Lakerman2
...go see 2016 Obamas America, at least Romney has held actualy jobs in industry...again can't wait for the debates.
Fiesty, you guys need uniforms.
Just shows how stupid Obama supporters really are. Another infamous record for Obama....
"The United States’ reputation as home to one of the world’s freest economies continues to decline, according to an international report released Tuesday.
The U.S. dropped to 18th worldwide, compared to 10th in 2008 and third from 1980 to 2000, the 2012 Economic Freedom of the World report found.
“The U.S. is on the wrong track,” said co-author James Gwartney, a Florida State University economics professor."
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
NBC polls ranked among the worst of the 2008 Presidential election. Rasmussen Reports along with Pew Research were number one and two respectively. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history. In short, if you believe the NBC polls I've got a bridge to sell you....
Remember 2010! ask Nancy Pelosi about it, she remembers! this time we will get Hairless Reid! and Obama, along with his crew of marxists, liars , and criminals.
Clinton is the ONLY demonrat to get reelected since 1945!
The only polls im interested in are the exit polls and they'll have Romney projected as the new Commander in Chief.
Romney supporters, were Bush supporters and that 8 years was a cake walk, now wasn't it? 2 wars and a crashing economy, now you want the Presidency back because Obama didn't clean up the mess you helped create fast enough? Seriously?
Republicant's our #1 job is to make President Obama a one term President, so we have blocked, obstructed, and filibustered at every turn. Aren't we great, vote for us. Partisan Politics business as usual!
The Fox news crowd is on alert to spin and change the story.
O&JOE