Twit, not twill. Sorry.

no joe, no bo, you gonna be ok after Obama gets re-elected? We wouldn't want you to hurt yourself or others..

Caesar - Turn on CNN. They're talking about the sponsors of the anti-Muslim video. Yes indeed it was created by right-wing interests. It's a fact.

you realize it takes CONGRESS to approve war and use of force. Romney nor Obama are going to have that sole authority unless they start trashing the Constitution.

Not really, ACCORDING TO MITT ROMNEY. HERE IS THE LINK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lEsB8p8zc0

RTypo,

Let em' waste ALL their money! Seems like this last venture into the Hollywood world isn't turning out too good for them. It just continues to clarify in thinking peoples minds the clear difference between the two choices they have in November, and the image of the right-wing in power is becoming a scary proposition.

thetotas:If the Repubs dont get in, they dont get to control women's bodies. Romney doesnt get to destroy Obamacare on his first day in office. We will have a steady head in the White House to lead us through these dangerous and trying times. We will continue down the path of economic recovery. We will all be in this together, instead of everyone for themselves- to coin a phrase. The question really should be: What disasters will befall us if Romney gets in.

Jimmy Carter was way ahead of Reagan at this point also. Remember how that worked out?

That's not true. In September, 1980, Carter and Reagan's polls were quite close. What really pulled Reagan ahead was the debates in October.

Anyone care to make a $10,000 bet how that's going to turn out this time?

Jimmy Carter was way ahead of Reagan at this point also. Remember how that worked out?

jh,

There's one thing you Teapublicans haven't figured out. President Obama is NOT Jimmy Carter, and Mitt Romney doesn't have 1/1000 of Ronald Reagan's charisma. Do you really believe Mitt compares to your beloved St. Ronnie? Tell the truth. Do you? Just because you want it to be true, doesn't make it true. Not by a long shot!

Obama 2012/Romney 1040

battleground states that Romney desperately needs to have any chance. Looking grimmer for the R&R boys, but as Savvy Shopper stated, it only counts on Election Day.

JH-479998 - Reagan went ahead of Carter in the polls around June 1, 1980 soon after he rapped up the Republican nomination. Conservatives can't change historical facts and statistics.

The poll averages on RCP have definitely moved in Obama's direction since the DNC. Ohio and Florida in particular seem to be moving the Presidents' way.

And there have been no polls since Mitt's Libya meltdown yesterday. He'd better come up with some specific plans and at least his 2011 tax return pretty soon...

im not going to watch youtube as a source of credibiity. I wouldnt watch it if a right leaning poster did the same. Thats like watching NBC put up 'video evidence'.

It does not have anything to do with You Tube. IT IS AN INTERVIEW WITH ABC 'MEET THE NATION"

If you want to debate serious points, stop using BS arguments

Reagan went ahead of Carter in the polls around June 1, 1980 soon after he rapped up the Republican nomination. Conservatives can't change historical facts and statistics.

they were tied around this time and then Reagan would take a drop until the end of October just before the election. Youre right Wildcat they cant and neither can you

It does not have anything to do with You Tube. IT IS AN INTERVIEW WITH ABC 'MEET THE NATION"

If you want to debate serious points, stop using BS arguments

I am debating serious points and you tried to pass what you said off as truth. I tried to do a search for that but no luck.

"Jimmy Carter was way ahead of Reagan at this point also. Remember how that worked out?"

Carter was never this far ahead. But -- Carter ran against real candidate with real ideas, a candidate who had a backbone, a candidate with a core, a candidate who knew what he believed in. Romney is NONE if that. Romney has no ides, no core, no convictions, no backbone. Romney will take any position on any issue depending on who he is talking to at the time. Just last Sunday he has 3 positions on Obama-care. He went from wanting to repeal ALL of it, to wanting to keep SOME of it then back to repealing ALL of it. He wants to outlaw abortion in ALL cases except when he wants to allow it in SOME cases. He backtracks, he spins, he lies, he lies about lying, he flips, he flops. He's not fit to be president of my homeowners association, much less president of the US.

thetotas: I'm sorry I did not see that question earlier, hope you come back.

The only answer I can give you is this: Who will hold power in the House? Will the far right wing lose seats? Will the Republican leadership regain control of the fringe members? Will the right see the re election as a rebuke to obstructionism and begin to work for the betterment of the country?

I think it remains to be seen, thetotas. But I am hoping that it causes all to say "the election is over, we must now move the country forward". If we, as citizens begin to demand action from both sides...maybe that can happen!

Hope things are well with you.

Ronald Reagan wasn't sticking his foot in his mouth on a daily basis. He waited until after he took office.

They may suppress the VOTE but We will suppress them and their party come this November, <OBAMA 2012>

Reagan and Carter were tied at 39% on 9/15/80

thetotas:

My thoughts on your question, If Obama wins reelection, and if republicans lose some seats, then I don't believe the republicans will be obstructing nearly as much as the last 2 years. I think they will have gotten the message that congress needs to work together and the word compromise will start to have new meaning. If Romney wins, then I think you will have obstruction from the democrats, thereby shutting the congress down again. I believe the reelection of Obama will give the tea party some thoughts that the obstruction was not a great idea and that the American people are not behind them, and that they will need to work together as a party, not be a split party. Just my thoughts.

And Michigan has been put in the Obama column from a toss up state. As the protests against the US continue don't believe it is all from one You-Tube video that most of the protesters say they never say. it is the BUSH FAMILY LEGACY! The same legacy that will befall us if we listen to McCain and Romney to go in Syria and Iran!

thetotas Comment collapsed by the community

NDD,

Question, If Obama wins, and the Republicans continue to obstruct. How will anything get through? What will change?

Do you really have to ask that question?? Republicans won't be able to obstruct like they did before because not only are you voting for a President, but at the same time you are voting for the house and Senate. Democrats will have the majority vote again and will finally not have to listen to Republicans. We can finally get 3 times the amount done for this country then we were able to with House majority Republicans.

I find it amusing when polls are given to determine the lesser of evils, and yet we are all still surprised 3 1/2 years after inauguration that whoever was picked was still wrong for the majority of the country.

DB Akron, Smaller polling, but what do you mean opposite results??

and if republicans lose some seats, then I don't believe the republicans will be obstructing nearly as much as the last 2 years

so what was the problem the first two years?

. If Romney wins, then I think you will have obstruction from the democrats, thereby shutting the congress down again

no Hopefully Romney goes middle and is forced to work with the democrats. Which is what I would want.

If Romney wins I hope the Senate stays democrat. It's not good when 2/3rds of our government is controlled by one party. It was designed for compromise.

Go Dems!!!

Regarding Virginia, get that racist George Allen out of politics, the big jerk. He's been a racist all these many years since transferring to UVA since they didn't allow blacks on the football team to his recent casual use of the word macaca to describe a person of Indian descent. I was in a local restaurant one time when he walked in wearing a big stupid cowboy hat ... just can't stand the jerk....

thetotas! You have to be pleased! You got a good conversation on your question! Congratulations!

sfcret: your President is center left, barely and will remain that way. Moving to the right would inflame the problems that we already have. Clinton was ALWAYS a centrist. He didn't move, Gingrinch did. I always believed that Gingrinch had a man crush on Clinton. He was the cool guy that Gingrinch never could be.

KevinT /Jo Ann 666

Rasmussen has Romney in the lead as of today

The Rasmussen has Romney up by one in the overall. And losing to Obama in FL and OH

Read em and weep

Romney might be able to bamboozle them ... but the old folk can see right through Ryan ... and they don't want any part of that there young whippersnapper!!!!!!

resdintthehills

dont get in, they dont get to control women's bodies. Romney doesnt get to destroy Obamacare on his first day in office. We will have a steady head in the White House to lead us through these dangerous and trying times. We will continue down the path of economic recovery. We will all be in this together, instead of everyone for themselves- to coin a phrase. The question really should be: What disasters will befall us if Romney gets in.

I am not so interested in social issues, its more about the economy. Today the Fed approved QE3, 40 billion a month with no end date (scary). We have tax increases and cuts come Jan 1, 2013. We have a congress that had dug in and a President that for some reason either gave up or is waiting until after the election.

My question is if Obama get re-elected and the Republicans keeps control of the House, and the Democrats keeps, how will things change?

TO: thetotas who wrote:

"...Question, If Obama wins, and the Republicans continue to obstruct. How will anything get through? What will change?"

I'd have to say, Republicans are desperately in need of a change of mind, and of heart.

Well we have certainly, once again, proved that the American People will NOT be intimidated, and we will choose our leaders in a democratic fashion, FREE FROM INTIMIDATION, and for that I am very proud.

Obama/Biden 2012

I find it amusing when polls are given to determine the lesser of evils, and yet we are all still surprised 3 1/2 years after inauguration that whoever was picked was still wrong for the majority of the country.

Mr Bush was not picked; the majority of the country voted for Al Gore, and Mr Bush was able to get into striking distance and then got the Supreme Court on your side. The rest of your point about Mr Bush is valid, though.

im not going to watch youtube as a source of credibiity. I wouldnt watch it if a right leaning poster did the same. Thats like watching NBC put up 'video evidence'.

Yes, refusal to examine the point the person you are debating is trying to make is always indicative of a solid foundation for your reasoning.

I had hoped never to live to see a worse president than Carter.

no, no, no, (hmmm...must be a member of the party of no)

There are a lot of Americans that regret the W years. That's why America isn't going to allow a repeat.

Obama 2012/Romney 1040

I guess the fact my republican neighbor told me he would be voting for Obama yesterday was a sign of how things are turning as we find out about the greed, wealth and poor judgement of Mittens!

TO: Caesar Augustus- who wrote:

"...you realize it takes CONGRESS to approve war and use of force."

Yes we do, and we have learned better than to ever be nieve again, and we will never allow another Republican to come along again and LIE us into war!

Obama/Biden 2012!

KevinT

Rasmussen has Romney in the lead as of today. With the mess going on in the middle east, it is not looking good for Obama.

thestuffmaker25

Feel good all you want from this useless poll libs...

When election time comes, the VOTERS, not pollsters, will fire President Obama and the Democratic Party for the terrible job they have done.

Don't forget...these same people claimed their poll showed Democrats holding the House and Gov. Scott being recalled.

See ya in November...

And in November there are going to be a whole bunch of very, very unhappy right wing nut job Facist wannabes.

Correction - Democrats keeps the Senate.

Hey NDD,

Thanks. Hope all is well with you and your family, and daughter is she getting close? See my new avatar, I just love this little guy, I wish he was mine.

For all of those of you sighting the Rasmussen poll having Romney ahead today by 1% please look at the date? That was before we got some insight on the kind of bumbling leadership he would offer.

Hey, no joe, no bo, nj et al who are complaining that the poll is "skewed" and that the media is doing this on purpose because it is an arm of the DNC, I guess it's typical of poor sportsman to blame to referees when your team is LOSING, and we all know that Repugs are the poorest sports of all. Sour grapes from the same group who lost in 2008 and will lose again in 2012. LOL. LOSERS!!!!

Great tweet over @ The Obama Diary:

In 2010 when the Tea Party and Republicans took over Congress, Sen. Mitch McConnell announced that the priority of the Republicans was to make Obama a one term president. Their non-record since:

Tax on companies that ship job overseas - BLOCKED

Political Ad Disclosure Bill - BLOCKED 2x

Small Business Jobs Act - BLOCKED 2x

The DREAM Act - BLOCKED

Repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell - BLOCKED NUMEROUS TIMES

Anti-Rape Amendment - BLOCKED

Benefits for Homeless Veterans - BLOCKED

AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE FOR AMERICANS - VOTED 33x TO APPPEAL

HEALTH CARE FOR 9/11 RESPONDERS - BLOCKED

THE JOBS BILL - BLOCKED

WALL STREET REFORM - BLOCKED

AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT - attempted BLOCK

OIL SPILL LIABILITY - BLOCKED

Immigration Reform - BLOCKED

Unemployment extension bill HR-4213 - BLOCKED

FAIR PAY ACT OF 2009 - BLOCKED & DEFEATED

In 2012, they want you to believe President Obama is to blame.

Since when does Mitt Romney even come close to being a "Ronald Reagan" Republican? As it has been said before, as a one term Governor, his biggest accomplishment was RomneyCare, which he side steps now. He has not changed since his aspirations of becoming a Governor, he was more interested in having the job than doing the job and Massachusetts suffered for it. He can't come close to being compared to Ronald Reagan and it sickens me to have people make the comparison. Even Ron Reagan Jr. said it best....his father would be appalled at what the Republican party has become and Mitt Romney can't seem to keep his feet out of his mouth at every turn of events regarding foreign policy and continuously contradicts himself on economic policy and last Sunday admitted to David Gregory that after months of saying he'd repeal "Obamacare" the ACA on day one of his presidency, he went on for 4 minutes about everything in the Affordable Care Act that is good and he would keep. He's a joke, and a Ronald Reagan Republican he certainly is not. If Mitt Romney is the best the Republican party has to offer Real Republicans anymore....I say we all just become Independents because he does not represent me, my ideals, or the main stream party, as a matter-of-fact, the main stream Republican party has been left out in the cold regarding a candidate to represent us....I guess it's another vote for Obama this year until the Republican party get's it's shxt together and looses the Teaparty morons and stops catering to the far left ideals and rhetoric of the former drug addict felon Rush Limbaugh and starts representing the main stream party again.

And by the way Mr. Romney...if you want to be commander in chief so bad, you should have had the decency to even mention the word Afghanistan in your speech at your convention. If your love of country is so profound that you want to be President of the United States, you should have acknowledged the war our country is in. I guess that slipped your mind. I hope you get your information and thoughts about what you really stand for together before your debate with Obama, because if not, you're going to resemble Nixon AGAIN, just like you did yesterday when caught in a web of statements which were inappropriate and incorrect. Your eyes were red and you looked like a deer in the headlights. And unfortunately I think Joe Biden is going to massacre Paul Ryan.

Vince, this is a case of no joe and the GOP being so dishonest for so long, that they assume everybody is.

"Jimmy Carter was way ahead of Reagan at this point also. Remember how that worked out?"

Who could forget? It was shortly before the destruction of our great aand patriotic middle class began.

If Obama gets re-elected and the Democrats manage to gain some seats in the House and Senate, The Republican obstructionist saboteurs will realize that the jig is up; the American people are on to them. Things will get done because they will be more scared of the American people than of the Kochs, Norquist, and the tea party.

Yes we do, and we have learned better than to ever be nieve again, and we will never allow another Republican to come along again and LIE us into war!

get over it, my statement wasn't partisan unlike the garbage you spewed ealier without proof. pure emotion doesnt make fact.

Byron Raum

You mistake my comment. I hate all of them, both sides of the proverbial fence. The only difference between Obama and Romney is into which pockets "our" money will flow. They are all bought, lock stock and barrel. The middle class has been diminishing for half a century due to the fact that neither Dumb or Pug works for us, we work for them, and those that buy them. You may parade differences, but they are the same.

Who could forget? It was shortly before the destruction of our great aand patriotic middle class began

Oh because the middle class was thriving with Carter at the Helm huh? Then under Obama's tutelage how come we still dont have booming middle class?

Byron Raum

im not going to watch youtube as a source of credibiity. I wouldnt watch it if a right leaning poster did the same. Thats like watching NBC put up 'video evidence'.

Yes, refusal to examine the point the person you are debating is trying to make is always indicative of a solid foundation for your reasoning.

not at all but im sure there were other sources that could have been cited. besides Byron it didnt make my original statement less true did it. Just because a president or canidate says they will push for certain matter doesnt mean they will get it. Since you didnt follow clearly you would have seen I wrote and then seen what IRespond originally wrote. IRespond passed his info off as fact I merely pointed out the flaw in his original statement.

The only reliable poll is the one I agree with.

thetotas: I did notice that avatar and he is as cute as he can be. Daughter is due mid December, and I can't wait.

This avatar is my dog, Sey, who is still working on becoming a therapy dog. He is such a sweetheart!

Getting colder here, bet it is nice where you are. Always glad to chat with you.

thetotas

NDD,

Question, If Obama wins, and the Republicans continue to obstruct. How will anything get through? What will change?

Not to worry thetoas,there will be a "REVERSE SHELLACKING" COME NOV. The Republicans have done squat since 2010 and there is going to be HELL TO PAY!

COinFL

You're exactly correct, and if the American People have any intellect or ability to recognize lies and smoking mirrors when they see them, Obama will be re-elected and the House of Rep will gain the seats needed to have a majority of Democrats and Independents and a Senate that is Democratic controlled as well without a governing body who recklessly signs symbolic agreements from Grover Norquist - a lobbyist, conservative activist who is lucky he was not prosecuted along with Jack Abramoff for the Lobbying scandal that sent Abramoff to jail. Once all the TeaParty controlled Norquist controlled Republicans no longer control the House, the jobs bill can pass and many others to help this country in it's recovery. Then the Party can make the adjustments they need to become more mainstream again to represent the people and not their own agenda for failure of a President over a prospering nation.

Why is it that former President Carter is a topic of discussion when the right wing folks freak out if anything is mentioned about Shrub? When you register as a Republican, do the kill all long term memory of inject illogical horse$hit? The birther crap, the Muslim, socialist, etc--whatever Limbaugh/Fox says. I hate to break it to you folks, but Mickey Mouse is a fictional character. Romney promises 13M "new jobs" with zero plan. I promise 26M new jobs.

For the Rassmussen fans, here's a fact. They hold the distinguished honor of the biggest error in polling history:

Hawaii Senate race, in which Rasmussen, in a poll completed three weeks before the election, showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin[.

Gee, only 40 points off.

Ah! The sweet sound of the whining and weeping is filling the air like the fragrance of springtime lilacs as the right wing lunatic fringe finally comes to grips with the inescapable fact that Mitt "Etch-A-Sketch" Romney and his enfeebled sidekick, Lyin' Ryan, have no hope of winning November's election! It's difficult for the intellectually challenged teabaggin' followers of the GOP to accept defeat so early in the campaign season, but they should be used to failure by now, right?

It's morning in America again!

Jimmy Carter was way ahead of Reagan at this point also. Remember how that worked out?

Reagan won because he won the debates. Because Americans liked him more as a person and he was able to capitalize on that to stomp all over Carter in the debates. Romney is neither more likable a candidate nor more skilled a debater than Obama. Romney's only hope to win this election would have been to secure a nice lead through the middle stages of the campaign and hope Obama wouldn't be able to fully close the gap after the debates. Reagan's comeback was an anomally, as most of the time whoever is on the lead immediately before the conferences ends up winning the election, so I would stop trying to convince myself that Romney can pull a Reagan, if I were you.

JH you might want to go look back and recheck that info, Reagan took the lead right before the conventions and never lost it after that. So you are wrong when you say Carter was ahead at this time, because he most certainly was not.

Oh, NBC poll? Never mind.

The right wing lunatic fringe are so cute when they try to deny reality, aren't they? Let's see what the American people are saying, shall we?

Democracy Corp; Obama 50, Etch-A-Sketch 45; Obama +5

Fox News; Obama 48, Etch-A-Sketch 43; Obama +5

Gallup; Obama 50, Etch-A-Sketch 44; Obama +6

Reuters; Obama 48, Etch-A-Sketch 45; Obama +3

ABC; Obama 49, Etch-A-Sketch 48; Obama +1

CNN; Obama 52, Etch-A-Sketch 46; Obama +6

IBD; Obama 46, Etch-A-Sketch 44; Obama +2

These numbers are going to get a lot worse after ol' Etch-A-Sketch humiliates himself at the presidential debates, too. Does anyone remember Mitt's embarrassing performance at the GOP debates against a field of cranks, crackpots, and crazies? I betcha $10,000.00 you do!

CA -

are saying Layton its time to usurp the Legislative branch and start throwing around E.O's? You werent exactly informative so please do tell.

I have sat and watched comments for the past year on this board and have "read" folk like you stating that the President needs to be more aggressive with Congress to push bills through and to be more of a driving force. It's not about EO's ... it's about being the President.

(Sorry for the delayed response there, CA, sometimes us "libtards" get up, go the to gym, walk our dogs, and have a life prior to coming back here to refute your BS.)

And no, the President isn't going to ask Congress to start another war .... that's Mitten's agenda.

Obama/Biden 2012

NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, last time I checked WSJ is right leaning, its the reason this poll is one I trust the most. You have a liberal leaning and conservative leaning team doing it.

If by some bizarre occurrence Obama is re-elected we will have a major attack upon us and the blood will be on theheads of every idiot that voted for him.

Did you vote for G.W. Bush? If so, you must be shampooing blood out of your greasy hair all the time, right, Mary?

Jo Ann-666954 - The only reliable poll is Rasmussen. They are correct more than any other poll.

Really? Because according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, Rasmussen consistently leans Republican.

Calculating 'House Effects' of Polling Firms

Rasmussen Reports, which has had Republican-leaning results in the past, does so again this year. However, the tendency is not very strong – a Republican lean of about 1.3 points.

If you are used to looking at Rasmussen Reports polls, your impression may be that their partisan lean is stronger than that. This is not wrong, actually. However, some of the difference results from the fact that Rasmussen is polling likely voters, while many other polling firms are polling registered voters.

There is no way the people of Florida, Ohio and Virginia are stupid enough to vote for Obama.

So...are you insulting the good people of Florida, Ohio and Virginia by saying that they are stupid enough to vote for Romney?

VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN NOVEMBER 6

AndresTM - Reagan won because he won the debates. Because Americans liked him more as a person and he was able to capitalize on that to stomp all over Carter in the debates.

Well, that and because they stole Carter's debate prep book and used it to cheat Reagan up before the debate. Don't you remember?

George Will's approach has been questioned in a few exceptional cases. During the 1980 campaign, he drew fire when it was learned he'd secretly coached Republican candidate Ronald Reagan for a debate with President Jimmy Carter using a debate briefing book stolen from the Carter campaign. Immediately following the debate, Will appeared on Nightline (10/28/80) to praise Reagan's "thoroughbred performance," never disclosing his role in rehearsing that performance (New York Times, 7/9/83).

There's no way in hell Reagan could ever have pulled off that performance without knowing what Carter would say in advance. But Carter made a mistake in scheduling only one debate, held a week before the election.

And the rest is history.

last time I checked WSJ is right leaning,

Last time I checked, the Wall Street Journal was owned by Rupert Murdoch.

So, yeah, it's right leaning. You betcha.

HaHa.... the ignorant sheep eat this stuff up don't they? You would think they would have learned something about being lied to by NBC after the massive Democrat loss in the 2010 midterms.

When has an NBC "poll" ever resulted in a finding that NBC didn't want it to result in?

Here is why: Look at page 8 of each of the "polls".

Viginia:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Strong Democrat 22
Not strong Democrat 8
Democrat leaning Independent 15
Just Independent 14
Republican leaning Independent 15
Not strong Republican 7
Strong Republican 17
Other 1
Total 100

Ohio:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Strong Democrat 27
Not strong Democrat 10
Democrat leaning Independent 12
Just Independent 11
Republican leaning Independent 11
Not strong Republican 8
Strong Republican 19
Other 1
Total 100

Florida:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Strong Democrat 25
Not strong Democrat 11
Democrat leaning Independent 11
Just Independent 10
Republican leaning Independent 10
Not strong Republican 10
Strong Republican 22
Other 1
Total 100

Notice how every single group of Democrats from every state has a larger representation than it's Republican counterpart? (except for "leaning Independent " in VA which is a tie)

Imagine the "luck" it must take to "randomly" sample people and ALWAYS end up with a Democrat skewed group.

NBC has no shame.

Washington Post:

Reagan's "Comeback"

Jon Cohen, October 13, 2008

When John McCain's bid for the GOP nomination nearly flatlined last summer, his campaign trumpeted Ronald Reagan's comeback win in the 1980 primaries as a model . Now, down in the polls with just three weeks to go, some are again suggesting a "Reagan-esque" path for their candidate.

It is an intriguing notion: A story today suggests Reagan trailed then-President Jimmy Carter by eight percentage points in late October, and that, when paired with Reagan's 10 point win on Election Day, would have made for a remarkable turnabout.

But a review of the late 1980 polls shows that while Reagan soared over the final week (following the campaign's one and only debate on Oct. 29), the contest up until that point was tightly competitive, not trending toward the incumbent Democratic president. At the time, the Associated Press reported "new polls say the race between the two men remains too close to call."

A post-election summary of polls by then-CBS News pollster Warren Mitofsky shows that at no point over the final two weeks did Carter have a lead bigger than three percentage points. There is a published Gallup poll not included in that report showing Carter up six among likely voters in a poll conducted Oct. 24 to 27. Whether six or the eight points cited today, Carter's advantage in Gallup polling was offset by similarly large Reagan leads in NBC-Associated Press or DMI (Reagan's pollsters) polls.

The bottom line is that there was no evident momentum for either candidate as the 1980 presidential election neared its completion. That is until Reagan's breakthrough debate performance.

Of course, at that time Carter was the president with sub-30 percent approval ratings, and Reagan the relative outsider seeking to prove himself to be a "safe" choice.

As important as it is to vote OBAMA/BIDEN it's just as important to vote OUT THE TEA PARTY LIARS. THEY GOT IN BY SAYING THEY WOULD GET JOBS, JOBS, JOBS. Instead they voted everything else. abortion bills and named post offices. GET THEM OUT.

Well, if you want an overview of all the polls, with some modeling built in to account for all their biases and oversampling and undersampling and landlines vs. cell phones:

Go look at FiveThirtyEight.com.

Nate Silver predicted every state except North Carolina in the last Presidential election.

Current forecast?

315.4 electoral votes for Obama (up 4.2 since Sept. 5)

222.6 electoral votes for Romney (down 4.2 since Sept. 5)

Obama's chance of winning: 80.8% (up 4.5% since Sept. 5)
Romney's chance of winning: 19.2% (down 4.5% since Sept. 5)

I'll take Nate Silver over any of Rupert Murdoch's empire any day.

Oh, and those "extra" Democrats? That's called "sample size" - because there are more declared Democrats in those areas than Republicans. Polling equal numbers of each would give you a major skew toward the minority Republican segment of voters.

Understand? No? Sorry, I can't teach a statistics course on the 'vine. Try reading up on it.

1. Clint Eastwood's impromptu line: if they're not doing the job, we have to let him go.

Eastwood meant Romney and Ryan of course.

Don't you get it yet? Eastwood was planted to turn attention away from Romney's weak performance at the RNC. Who talks about Romney's speech? The GOP has already begun the face-saving process.

You need proof? Just look at the movies Eastwood's made:

THE GOOD (Obama) THE BAD (Gingrich) AND THE UGLY (toss-up between Christie and Ryan)

A FISTFUL OF DOLLARS (Adelson)

FOR A FEW DOLLARS MORE (Rove)

MILLION DOLLAR BABY; ANY WHICH WAY YOU CAN (Romney)

And who can forget these great films: Space Cowboys, True Crime, Absolute Power, The Rookie, Two Mules for Sarah Palin...

It's so obvious! Eastwood has known all along that Romney would be the GOP nominee in 2012, and he has always known that Mitt was going to lose to Obama.

Romney, you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?

john-737278 You mistake my comment. I hate all of them, both sides of the proverbial fence. The only difference between Obama and Romney is into which pockets "our" money will flow.

The first weapon of tyrants is a disengaged populace.

My bet is you're working for somebody.

caesar - It's not good when 2/3rds of our government is controlled by one party. It was designed for compromise.

I hope your on the phone to your GNoP Congressman daily with that message.

You are, right?

And as far as I can tell the GOP is currently controlling both Congress and the Supreme Court (see Citizens United). So you're going to vote for Obama and a 60-vote Democratic majority in the Senate, just to keep things fair?

Good - just wanted to be sure you practice what you preach.

Pat Boston MA. - Well, the GOP House does have one "accomplishment".

Americans should know that one of the few bills the GOP has passed in the House of Representatives eliminates the caps on skilled foreign workers coming into this country.

It is now in the Senate. We need to speak up NOW and put a stop to this garbage! These are American jobs!

The United States House of Representatives passed a bill — House Resolution 3012 — which favors highly skilled workers by removing country-specific caps on immigrant engineers, computer scientists and other professionals.

House representatives voted 389 to 15 in favor of HR 3012 or the "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act." The bill is also expected to pass in the Senate.

By eliminating the cap from each country on high-skilled working visa, talented immigrants from India, Philippines, China and other emerging economies can work in the US, the report said.

So much for the GOP's blathering about "illegals" taking American jobs. They just want to make them "legals" when it's cheaper for their corporate masters!

After Mitt Romney's comments yesterday, I no longer feel irritated and embarrassed by him. I am now repulsed.

Hey, Bali Bob (#1.11)

If Sec. Clinton would be one to reach across the aisle for a running mate in '16, I'd rather see Colin Powell than Rice. He's much more moderate, more pragmatic, and more respected - nationally and throughout the world. That would really steal thunder from any Republican ticket. Think either of them would go for that?

Righty wind republicans. Excuses , excuses, excuses! You learned well from FOX, but even their poll has Obama ahead by 5%.

Remember we are not electing a king. Let's get Obama some help in congress when we have the chance. Don't be sidetracked by sideline issues when electing congresspeople. Remember, if they're Republican, they will keep on doing what they've been doing. Grabbing power is more important to them than the good of the country. And let's quit with these articles about the "horse race" part of the election, and talk more of the issues and approaches to them that are worth listening to.

pjam,

You do realize there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. Nationally as well as most states. So those figures would not surprise me in the least.

As for Independents, I really don't doubt that many have made up their mind which Party they will be voting for. Unfortunately ,for your party, it looks like more are leaning towards President Obama than Romney.

I really don't see how this is skewed but hey, if it makes your day to think it is so, great for you. I don't think that is very factual on your part though or realistic. Personally, I don't hold much by polls as to me it is just a snapshot at that particular time.

RealAmericans - "Oh, and those "extra" Democrats? That's called "sample size" - because there are more declared Democrats in those areas than Republicans."

A. "sample size" is the total number of people sampled.

B. If there are more Democrats and Democrats just suffered the largest party-flip since WWII in the 2010 midterms you are in worse trouble than even I think.

I get tired of seeing BS about how dems controlled congress for 2 years.

Read

www.thepragmaticpundit.com/2011/12/obama-did-not-control-congress-for-two.html

NBC is so full of crap with thier polls but that is ok, since thier lies just spur more people to get out to those polls to vote against Obama. If I asked one thousand people that work for NBC who they will vote for I bet Obama would be way ahead, fortunately the election takes place in the real world, not thier fairy tale Obamanation.

Karen C.-567472

Apparently you think Romney should have did an Obama and appologized to the poor traumatized terrorists who killed our people. You and the inappropriately named Real American need to say what country you are really posting from. Or is it just the Narwhale room on overtime.

Some people claim to be "independents" yet they can't even spell independent, wonder where they are posting from. For the true Americans out there remember in November and most importantly get out there and vote OBama the heck out of our Whitehouse and hope he chooses to leave our country entirely.

Obama said today that Egypt is not our ally. We give them $2 billion per year in aid and they are not our ally? What the hell? The ineptitude of this President never ceases to amaze me, yet his "rock star" persona makes it possible to say incredibly stupid things like this. This is just going to tear Egypt further away from us.

ALL the fine people of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia have got to be saying to themselves:

Fool me once, shame on you (Obama).

Fool me twice, shame on me.

Then, go do what is right and vote for Mitt Romney, who has a record of success in business, government, and in saving the Olympics from disaster. Let him have the chance to save our country from the certain destruction Obama is taking it. $6 trillion in new debt with no results isn't cutting it. "When someone does not do the job, you gotta let him go" Clint Eastwood hit the nail directly on the head.

pjam09 "HaHa.... the ignorant sheep eat this stuff up don't they? You would think they would have learned something about being lied to by NBC after the massive Democrat loss in the 2010 midterms....Imagine the "luck" it must take to "randomly" sample people and ALWAYS end up with a Democrat skewed group...NBC has no shame."

Actually, it's not 'luck', as you know - NBC deliberately 'adjusted' the sample to get the desired result - as is obvious. They deliberately eliminated enough Republicans from the sample to get to the average of 24% for Republicans because they knew that was necessary to show Obama in the lead.

It's interesting that those who self-identified as Republicans were 32% in 2008 when the Republicans had a record low number in their Party, but NBC has artificially 'adjusted' their figures to only 24% now - totally ignoring the obvious change in party affiliation that was evident in the Republican blowout of Democrats in the 2010 Mid-Term elections.

Rasmussen's most recent survey of Party Affiliation actually shows 37.6% for Republicans vs 33.3% Democrats. Since exit polls in 2004 and 2008 showed that about 90% vote 'party line' for President, NBC's artificially adjusted poll could actually be overstating Obama's real support by as much as 9%.

We should remember that NBC is controlled by Obama's buddy at General Electric - Jeff Immelt, so I'm sure that NBC has their 'marching orders' to make Obama look as good as possible, and make Romney look as bad as possible.

www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/index.html

Obama leads

OH contrare:

http://nation.foxnews.com/2012-presidential-poll/2012/09/01/rasmussen-romney-47-obama-44

To the TROLLS and rightwing lemming base:

LIAR - a person who doesn't tell you the truth. = ROMNEY/RYAN

HYPOCRITE - A person who engages in the same behaviors he condemns others for. A person who professes certain ideals, but fails to live up to them. = ROMNEY/RYAN

SWINDLER - a dishonest person who uses clever means to cheat others out of something of value. = ROMNEY/RYAN

ELITIST - A person who believes that they are superior to others (and thus deserve favored
status) because of their intellect, social status, wealth, or other factors. = ROMNEY/RYAN.

CALLOUS - insensitive; indifferent; unsympathetic = ROMNEY/RYAN

So why vote for a pair of liars, hypocrites, elitist, callous swindlers?! The fact that they will not show their tax returns to the people they are panhandling for votes AND does NOT state their ACTUAL specific plans of how they will fix this economy or the 12 million jobs they promise – is why they fit exactly into these adjectives. Once they get your votes, all you will get back is a smirk. You’ve already been HAD.

To my fellow Dems/Libs/Progressives, and Independents/Republicans/Catholics/etc FOR OBAMA:
This November vote as if your life depended on it. Let's make sure our vote counts for Obama and the Democrats.

AND WATCH OUT FOR THE RADICAL RIGHTWING VOTE INTIMIDATORS – SUCH AS THE SCARY TRUE THE VOTE SQUAD. Do not let the ReTHUGlicans and teabags STEAL your vote!

I love how the right wing nuts say the polls are worthless and don't mean nothing when they're behind but hold it up in front of everyone's face and preach how important they are when they're ahead. Certainly the polls are perfect but it's what politicians base their strategy for the days ahead.

What is giving Obama a push is Bill Clinton telling it like it is. With all the negative ads by the Republican money people were having their doubts but Clinton put them back on course. Obama will kill Romney in the debates but Republicans will somehow try to claim victory.

@ ROY WILSON

YOU'RE FUNNY. If ever there was a pollster that was bias it's Rasmussen. Every one of their polls are favorable to Republican candidates. In other words 5 polls can show Obama leading by 5 points and Rasmussen will show Romney leading by 5. Gravis Marking is no better but keep dreaming. It's all you have at this time.

Apparently you think Romney should have did an Obama and appologized to the poor traumatized terrorists who killed our people.

Obama didn't apologize to anyone, but Romney complained about it anyway. But he lied. It was pure political posturing and utterly inappropriate.

Here's a summary from CBS news:

WASHINGTON — The gunfire at the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, had barely ceased when Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney seriously mischaracterized what had happened in a statement accusing President Barack Obama of "disgraceful" handling of violence there and at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo.

"The Obama administration's first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks," Romney said in a statement first emailed to reporters at 10:09 p.m. Eastern time, under the condition it not be published until midnight.

In fact, neither a statement by the U.S. Embassy in Cairo earlier in the day nor a later statement from Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton offered sympathy for attackers. The statement from the Cairo Embassy had condemned anti-Muslim religious incitement before the embassy walls were breached. In her statement, issued minutes before Romney's, Clinton had offered the administration's first response to the violence in Libya, explicitly condemning the attack there and confirming the death of a State Department official.

"I condemn in the strongest terms the attack on our mission in Benghazi today," Clinton said in a written statement received by The Associated Press at 10:08 p.m. "As we work to secure our personnel and facilities, we have confirmed that one of our State Department officers was killed. We are heartbroken by this terrible loss."

Then, at 10:24 p.m., a Romney spokeswoman lifted the release restriction on the Republican's statement, and it was widely published.

At the time, the Romney campaign did not know that the U.S. ambassador, Christopher Stevens, had been killed, nor did the Obama administration. Libyans told American officials around midnight that the ambassador had died, but Americans were unable to confirm his identity until hours later.

"I strongly condemn the outrageous attack on our diplomatic facility in Benghazi, which took the lives of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens," Obama said in his first statement at 7:21 a.m. Wednesday, the next morning.

lol Shaking my head, it is rather funny that Rasmussen is the only site that I have seen that claims Romney holds a lead. Simple quick google search tells the tale.

I've always believed that if Romney continues his policy of secrets he had no chance. If he continues all the way through the debates with out answers Obama will win in a landslide. Who will pay for this tax cut of 5 trillion dollars, you say the same rich that are getting most of the savings. If you actually intend for this to be revenue neutral for the wealthiest Americans why bother with the tax cuts if the same ones who get most of the money will lose the same amount?

You can't win on bashing the other guy you have to explain how you'd do better and not just in general terms. And no we won't simply trust you because of your character Willard. We don't really know you and the best way to judge your character would be if you released your taxes and you refuse. Was the reason you failed to list a 30 million dollar offshore account on one list of assets but add it on another a simple oversight or did you accept amnesty from an account you illegally didn't claim? Were you continuing to run Bain after 1999 and merely claim to retroactively retire after 3 years? How do you retroactively retire from a solely owned company and why would it take 3 years to figure out you were never going back?

Shaking my head!

Are you sure you have one up there? Even FOX has Obama ahead by 5% and some polls, not NBC's, have the lead up to 7% now. As Mittens puts his foot in his mouth each day now expect the lead to widen! As Mitt is pointed out to give those tax breaks to the upper 1% and stiff us below them he will drop even more. As he talks about taking action in Syria, Iran and now Libya again he will lose! Americans don't like republican warmongering!

I'm sitting here watching the news...Cairo, Libya, Yemen, Iran....it's all going to hell fast. Our embassies are under attack....we have diplomats that have been killed.

And what is our president doing? Making campaign stops and speeches. He doesn't know if Egypt is an ally or an enemy and he stated Libya is a good friend. How ridiculously naive is he? He thinks he can change the minds of muslims? He considers these countries democracys? He thinks the Muslim Brotherhood is going to be support the USA?

And then he has the gall to criticize Romney for having no experience in foreign affairs? What does this community organizer know about foreign affairs?

This absolute lack of leadership is pathetic and anyone that is considering voting for this man again either is on the take, related to him, or hasn't seen the news in 4 years.

Are millionaires actually who we want to continue running this country - people who have proven themselves by grinding other people's faces into the dirt?! Last election the Democrats priced the presidency out of anyone else's hands who doesn't have $200,000,000 of their own money to put into it. This election, prices are expected to go up over a billion dollars. Seems to me like the wealthy are trying to make sure no one other than the wealthy will ever again be able to rule this country!

JH you might want to go look back and recheck that info, Reagan took the lead right before the conventions and never lost it after that. So you are wrong when you say Carter was ahead at this time, because he most certainly was not.

I don't know what the polls were at for Reagan before the debates but remember Reagan blew Carters doors off at the debates. I'm old so I remember. Does anyone really believe Romney's going to out debate Obama when the only thing he's got is to bash Obama? People, including the moderators are going to ask Romney questions he's refused to answer and that won't play well. People aren't going to accept I won't tell you until after I'm elected but trust me.

Unlike some countries, in America we have a real choice of who becomes leader of the our nation.

And It's a busy election year for both candidates:

http://www.dropshots.com/OldCrow2#date/2012-09-13/20:58:56

http://www.dropshots.com/OldCrow2#date/2011-08-07/09:35:21

What ranting even before the first debate. Do you feel lucky Obama punks, well do you? Oh by the way KaybeeToys, Clinton Eastwood called Obama the biggest hoax President in History of the USA. Might want to get your facts straight but, we do expect mentally challenged liberals to lie and spin the truth. Wow, image just the other day I caught a Liberal trying to tell the other sheep on this post that Romney was the Socialist and Obama was the Conservative, that was just to cute!!! Go eat your Obama vegetables and maybe Michelle will tuck you in tonight!

Obama will be slip sliding away (Paul Simon). I guess nobody on this post will report the more acurate polls like the Rasmusen Poll Romney 47% Obama 46%

I guess nobody on this post will report the more acurate polls like the Rasmusen Poll Romney 47% Obama 46%

You mean the only poll that shows Etch-A-Sketch even marginally ahead of President Obama? Even that bastion of the right wing lunatic fringe, FOX News, is giving it to Obama by five points. If you're going to cling desperately to a number, you can do much better than Rasmussen:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map

Not only vote for Obama, but vote a straight democratic party, we need to get this country going forward, and with the GOP in control nothing will get done, and the American people will be the ones who pay the price along with our economy!

Wire 557.... Scotty won, so where are all those jobs he said would be flooding our state after the recall election, gee seems like to me we keep losing jobs, not adding, and don't bother blaming Obama, this was is all Scotty's doing. He also said he would reduce the deficit, so much for that, we are adding more to the deficit every month. Oh yeah, after the recall the dems wanted to hold a special session on jobs, but oh no the repubs said no, they wanted their summer vacation instead, guess we know who has their priorities straight don't we. Scotty is nothing but a teabagger who will do more damage to WI than any other Governor in WI history, just watch.

ROY WILSON-336103

Actually, it's not 'luck', as you know - NBC deliberately 'adjusted' the sample to get the desired result - as is obvious. They deliberately eliminated enough Republicans from the sample to get to the average of 24% for Republicans because they knew that was necessary to show Obama in the lead.

Duhh... actallly... duuuhhh... dey just made up da numbers... duh... hick!

Part of taking a poll to see who people might vote for is to see how party affiliation goes as well...

And when you realize that the Dem side has a great deal more integrity than the "right by any means" club, you might just want to realize that your illustrious party is not only losing presidential votes, but Senate and House votes along with total party affiliations.

I know it's tough to swallow since your lies and twists are just the kind of behavior that drives people that way, but all other indications say it's real.

All republicans must go. Give the Democrats the Presidency, the House and Senate for 4 years. Without the treasonous obstructionists, they will be able to make the economy, and life in America much better. If they fail to make the most of their super majority, vote them all out in 2016 and let the Republicans push America into recession again.

Joe-755363

This absolute lack of leadership is pathetic and anyone that is considering voting for this man again either is on the take, related to him, or hasn't seen the news in 4 years.

Try rounding your news out with something... ANYTHING... outside of FOX news. FOX slants EVERYTHING against Obama, even on news items where Obama isn't involved. So watch CNN once in a while. Or ABC or CBS or NBC or even MSNBC... and watch how your day improves and your stress levels go back to normal.

Obama isn't perfect, Bud, but he is an American, born in Hawaii, with no serious ulterior motive. Just a smart SOB that has it together and is fighting a big block of power because he's Democrat and black.

So change the channel and close your eyes and listen. It will do you well.

Obama will kill Romney in the debates but Republicans will somehow try to claim victory.

Yes, exactly! It was the same situation four years ago. This is what we will see on October 3:

On one side of the stage, Obama: cool, commanding, comfortable in his own skin, saying what he means and meaning what he says.

On the other side, Romney: fake, simpering, awkward, looking like he'd rather be somewhere else. (Don't worry, Mittens...you will soon be relaxing in Switzerland. Go ahead and book your trip.)

Obama has the chops to be president: he IS president. President Obama will wipe the floor with Flip... and then we'll have the 'heavy weights' on FOX telling us how Romney won the debate.

If there is a single person out there who does not already believe, today, that Republicans will claim victory in the first debate, speak up!

Oh by the way KaybeeToys, Clinton Eastwood called Obama the biggest hoax President in History of the USA.

Eastwood is entitled to his opinion, even as dang stupid as it is.

Geez, did someone die and made Clint Eastwood your new party leader? Is El Rushbo sleeping with the fishes (er, whales)? Did Rover get run over by a truck?

Your know what they say about opinions. They're like a**holes...everyone has one.

RealAmericansFirst

You are mistaken. I am very engaged in getting all of these bought non-representatives thrown out and common men and women with common sense and honor put in to replace them. And I work for no one. I work for the future of myself and mine.

...Romney's knee-jerk judgments, based on ideology not reality, his inability to back down when he said something wrong and his (incorrect) argument that President Obama sympathized with the murderers of America's ambassador to Libya.

Criticizing America's Commander-in-Chief while U.S. interests were still under attack, and Americans were dying, comes off as amateur and un-presidential, and might just be political suicide for Romney.

http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/13/did-mitt-romney-kill-his-own-chances-of-becoming-president-with-his-reaction-to-the-violence-in-egypt-and-libya/

Yes, folks...Romney is the candidate the GOP has chosen to put forward in this election. He is supposedly the best and the brightest they have. They are asking us to put this man in the White House. They are asking us to put our country in his hands...they are asking us to put our lives in his hands.

Unthinkable!

VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN NOVEMBER 6

Sailcat, The numbers you quote from Rasmussen were on Sept. 10 and since then Virginia, Ohio and Florida have been moved from Toss Up STATES to leaning Obama. Connecticut moved from Leaning Obama to Strong fro Obama. At least get up to date information. Several polls now have Obama ahead from 5-7%. That happens when your candidate puts his greed for office ahead of what is right!

All political polls are subjective and skewed and used only to create a perception that the probablility of your candidate winning is lower than their opponents, thus resulting in a voter not willing to go to and vote because they feel their vote won't matter.

Polls are presumptive and deceiving. The only poll that matters are the numbers derived from the Nov 6 voting results.

Everything else is BS.

Larry-2260635 "@ ROY WILSON YOU'RE FUNNY. If ever there was a pollster that was bias it's Rasmussen. Every one of their polls are favorable to Republican candidates"

Try doing your own research instead of relying on White House talking points.

I've heard the complaints that 'Rasmussen is inaccurate' and 'Rasmussen is biased', so let's look at the REAL evidence from the last two Presidential campaigns (2004 & 2008), which fortunately is easy to verify. The source for the information was Realclearpolitics.com which is a summary of all of the major polls.

In 2004, Rasmussen's final poll showed Bush winning by 1.7%, and the actual margin of victory was 2.4%, so Rasmussen was only 0.7% off of perfection. Interestingly, Rasmussen's poll was 0.7% biased in favor of the Democrat when compared with the actual result.

In 2008, Rasmussen's final poll showed Obama winning by 6.0%, and the actual margin of victory was 7.3%, so Rasmussen was 1.3% off of perfection – This time, Rasmussen's poll was 1.3% biased in favor of the Republican when compared with the actual result. Rasmussen's average error in both elections was 1.0%, which was the best of all of the major pollsters (actually tied with Pew Research).

So Rasmussen and Pew had the best average of all of the major pollsters in the last two Presidential campaigns, and Rasmussen's average 'bias' was a miniscule 0.3%, compared with an average bias of 0.95% for Pew in favor of Democrats and a bias for the others of 1.6% in favor of the Democrats.

Overall, Rasmussen has the best record for accuracy AND the least amount of bias.

Now let's take a look at the OTHER major pollsters;

Gallup missed by a whopping 2.4% in 2004 and 3.7% in 2008, for an average error margin of 3.05% - both times biased in favor of the Democrats.

Marist missed by an almost equally large 3.4% in 2004 and 1.7% in 2008 for an average error of 2.55%, again biased in favor of the Democrats in both cases.

Reuters also missed by 3.4% in 2004 and 1.7% in 2008 for an average error of 2.55% – also biased in favor of the Democrats each time.

Interestingly, Fox (that supposed bastion of the right) missed by 4.4% in 2004 and 0.3% in 2008 – also biased in favor of the Democrats by an average of 2.05%.

In fact, of the 12 major pollsters included in Realclearpolitics averages for both 2004 and 2008, 10 of them were biased in favor of the Democrats when compared with actual results. Overall, Realclearpolitics.com's average of the polls was biased in favor of the Democrats by 1.4% in 2004 and 1.0% in 2008 compared with actual results.

One last point – All of the major pollsters switch to 'Likely Voters' just before the election because they are much more accurate than 'Registered Voter' polls, but Rasmussen is the only one that consistently polls 'Likely Voters' each time. Since Republicans consistently vote in greater percentages than Democrats, 'Registered Voter' polls seriously overstate the Democrat – typically by about 4%.

http://www.polimerican.com/adults-vs-registered-vs-likely-voters/

Why do you suppose the polls are so heavily oversampling Democrats? Could it be that the media wants to influence the election by attempting to discourage the conservative vote? It won't matter, because we vote and we don't need a lot of encouragement by MoveOn to remind us.

These polls are very slanted to the Democrats. the sampling of likely voters was 18% African American, in 2008 the percentage of African American voters was 12.1 which was the highest since 1988, normally runs aroun 11. It sample 71 percent White voters, in 2008 that percentage was 76.3%. All these polls mean nothing and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Va Ind "These polls are very slanted to the Democrats. the sampling of likely voters was 18% African American, in 2008 the percentage of African American voters was 12.1 which was the highest since 1988, normally runs around 11."

Good 'catch'. Since African Americans support Obama by about 95%, that 49% oversampling would account for an error in favor of Obama of 6% - Obama's entire lead in this phony poll.

Colorado-Man "Why do you suppose the polls are so heavily oversampling Democrats? Could it be that the media wants to influence the election by attempting to discourage the conservative vote?"

Exactly - It allows them to shape the narrative that Romney is desperate and Obama is in control. While it won't have much effect on the Conservative vote, they think it will 'fire up Obama's base' and perhaps influence the Independent vote, which is running against Obama.

I have to laugh at the so-called 'War on Women' that is the latest White House talking point, saying the Republicans are at 'War' against women because a few sexually active women should pay for their own birth control pills instead of having them provided by the taxpayers. The REAL war on women is being waged in strict Islamic countries, where they can be whipped for walking with a man that is not their husband, or they can have their nose cut off if they dared to not wear a veil, or thrown in jail for driving a car.

Roy,

First and foremost, pollsters go to great lengths to poll as randomly as possible. The "science" is very aware of WHERE they poll, or HOW they poll, or WHEN they poll, because they know that a wrong polling technique will skew the data and negate the poll altogether.

You act like all these pollsters are some "Uncle Ernie" type that is there solely to secure some outcome or another. Seriously? They make their money on ACCURACY. They are hired based on PREVIOUS ACCURACY... each and every one of them. If they just wanted to hire a liar, they could go snag a GOP candidate somewhere and be done with it.

No. You are wrong... and wrong headed. I suspect you know this and have purposeful posts designed to confuse and distort, but I may be giving you too much credit... I really don't know or care much of your motives. They are right leaning, whatever they are.

To be specific... random polls are designed to be random. They do NOT assume a Dem/Rep split and seek that split in their data... they must keep the data random. Now you can claim that Republicans never answer the phone or they're never in a mall where a pollster was or that they over-sampled people with education, I don't care. You may well be right, but if you are, it was pure luck since you have no more clue about reality than me or the pollsters... and the pollsters spend their LIVES considering these things.

These are groups of people striving for ACCURACY based on complex scientific methods in a HIGHLY COMPETITIVE job market. They would no more twist or turn a poll than the man in the moon. They are betting their lives and livelihood on accuracy.

That said, the only conclusion you can make, other than some big secret unexposed conspiracy involving virtually every pollster on earth, is that people are shifting to the Democratic Party and to Obama and a Democratic Congress. You can't swallow that? Oh well.

I guess some of you missed the results of the FOX News poll this week! It has President Obama ahead as well.

The following is a quote from George Will (Republican) last Sunday (9-9-2012) on This Week with George Stephanopoulos:

"There is uncertainty surrounding the Romney/Ryan tax cut plan because they have not specified the deductions that will be closed and we know where the big money is: mortgage Interest deductions; charitable deductions; taxing as compensation, which it is; employer provided health insurance; and state and local taxes. All of those either hit only the rich in which case you don't get much money or you hit the middle class."

He has also said very strongly that Governor Romney needs to release more tax records.

LMarcT "Roy, First and foremost, pollsters go to great lengths to poll as randomly as possible."

You are missing the whole point. It would be mathematically impossible for all of these polls to 'randomly' select 30% more Democrats than Republicans consistently when recent surveys show the percentages of Republicans and Democrats are essentially equal.

You obviously don't understand how pollsters work - they don't just randomly select people and publish the results - they always analyze those samples for 'outliers' and then adjust them for what they believe are representative of the voting public. For example, if they noticed that their sample included 25% Blacks (who support Obama by 95%), they would know that they needed to make an adjustment since Blacks only represented about 12% of the vote in 2008 - a record year for Obama.

This poll by NBC has an obvious 'outlier' that has not been adjusted (or perhaps deliberately adjusted to mislead) because it included 18% Blacks in the sample, when a figure of about 11% or 12% would be realistic. That extra 6% over-sampling of Black voters accounts for virtually the entire 'lead' that they say Obama enjoys in the 'swing states'.

This is an obviously biased poll intended to overstate Obama's level of support.

Wire,

At least the Democrats have been doing something rather than the Do Nothing republicans who can only add the Keystone Pipeline to 40 Bills since they are such a spoiled brat s that they want to ruin Bills that could help with jobs. What a mixed up sick party that I left 40 years ago. I keep saying that Nixon, Goldwater and Reagan would be called liberals by today's right wing nut case party members and supporters.

Roy, Take your pick there are , according to the last look I had about 14 of them have Obama ahead by 5% to 7%. The Rasmussen poll take and the results dated the 10th is the only one that has Romney ahead by 1%. Your statements don't hold true when it is 14-1.

My vote's for President Obama

Obama/Biden 2012

clwyd-2621393 "Roy, Take your pick there are , according to the last look I had about 14 of them have Obama ahead by 5% to 7%. The Rasmussen poll take and the results dated the 10th is the only one that has Romney ahead by 1%. Your statements don't hold true when it is 14-1."

So if 14 people say the Earth is flat, but only one says it's round, then we should believe the 14 that it must be flat?

Thanks for the laugh.

The whole point is that these polls over-sample Democrats by about 30% when recent surveys by Gallup and Rasmussen show them to be about equal with Republicans in the voting population (actually, Republicans are slightly ahead in party ID). This results in an artificial bias in favor of Obama by about 6%, which is Obama's entire alleged 'lead'. The 2010 Mid-Term elections should have given the pollsters a clue that the proportion of Democrats is nowhere near 30% above that of Republicans. Virtually the entire 'lead' by Obama is accounted for by including 18% of Black voters in their sample - even in 2008, when Obama had unprecedented enthusiasm among Black voters, their total was only about 12% of the vote. That alone equals a 6% bias error favoring Obama.

In fact, the exit polls for 2008, when there was a record number of Democrats, only showed about 22% more Democrats than Republicans. For the pollsters to say that this percentage has increased now to over 30% more Democrats when Obama's support is seriously eroded defies logic.

Keep in mind that NBC is controlled by Obama's buddy at General Electric (Jeff Immelt), and if you haven't noticed the blatant bias by NBC lately, you are not paying attention.

By the way - Rasmussen has Romney ahead by 3% now.

War on Women

Republicans do not support equal pay for equal work.

A Peasonhood amendment, which Romney said he would support (also has his flip-floppy moments on) would end most forms of contraception that women currently use today. Certain formulations of the birth control pills are also used to prevent ovarian cysts (the primary topic of Sandra Fluke's talk which Rush Limbaugh didn't bother to actually listen to or intentionally lied about - her friend paid for health insurance at a Catholic University, had this medical perscription, was denied, eventually could not afford the expense - yes some bc pills cost more than others - had to have surgery to remove one of her ovaries becuse she did not have the medication ... Oh, and you see a bc pill is taken every day for a specific number of days, not every time you are going to have sex like Viagra. Other bc pill formulations also have other medical uses.) Then a lady asked Romney if he was going to take her contraception away and he said of course not. Then several weeks later he gave a speech at a Minnesota state GOP convention about the evils of contraception.

The personhood amendment would mean no abortion, period, even in the case of an illness threatening the life of the mother - too bad, so sad, if we're not going to get a live baby, you are going to die!

After the "in cases of 'legitimate rape' women don't get pregnant" garbage, Romney said he would support abortion in the cases of incest and rape. His GOP platform says otherwise. Romney also sought the support during this campaign of the primary doctor behind this 'legitimate rape' falacy. Todd Akin and Paul Ryan co-sponsored a bill redefining rape as in 'legitimate rape' as opposed to ???? Rape is rape!

The defunding of Planned Parenthood will put thousands upon thousands of women's lives at risk because they will not be able to get mamograms and other life saving tests and treatments. They will never know that they have breast cancer, ovarian cancer, uteran cancer, cervical cancer until it is way too late. They also won't be able to get the necessary medical care to help them have healthy babies. These are the primary things Planned Parenthood does.

War on Women

Republicans do not support equal pay for equal work.

A Peasonhood amendment, which Romney said he would support (also has his flip-floppy moments on) would end most forms of contraception that women currently use today. Certain formulations of the birth control pills are also used to prevent ovarian cysts (the primary topic of Sandra Fluke's talk which Rush Limbaugh didn't bother to actually listen to or intentionally lied about - her friend paid for health insurance at a Catholic University, had this medical perscription, was denied, eventually could not afford the expense - yes some bc pills cost more than others - had to have surgery to remove one of her ovaries becuse she did not have the medication ... Oh, and you see a bc pill is taken every day for a specific number of days, not every time you are going to have sex like Viagra. Other bc pill formulations also have other medical uses.) Then a lady asked Romney if he was going to take her contraception away and he said of course not. Then several weeks later he gave a speech at a Minnesota state GOP convention about the evils of contraception.

The personhood amendment would mean no abortion, period, even in the case of an illness threatening the life of the mother - too bad, so sad, if we're not going to get a live baby, you are going to die!

After the "in cases of 'legitimate rape' women don't get pregnant" garbage, Romney said he would support abortion in the cases of incest and rape. His GOP platform says otherwise. Romney also sought the support during this campaign of the primary doctor behind this 'legitimate rape' falacy. Todd Akin and Paul Ryan co-sponsored a bill redefining rape as in 'legitimate rape' as opposed to ???? Rape is rape!

The defunding of Planned Parenthood will put thousands upon thousands of women's lives at risk because they will not be able to get mamograms and other life saving tests and treatments. They will never know that they have breast cancer, ovarian cancer, uteran cancer, cervical cancer until it is way too late. They also won't be able to get the necessary medical care to help them have healthy babies. These are the primary things Planned Parenthood does.

Apologies for the double post. I received a message that there was and error, my message was not successfully posted and to try again!

With the world exploding with hatred for America, embassies burning, radical Islam on the march and Marines with no ammo in Egypt, illegals pouring across the border, gas at $4.00 a gallon, the Fed slinging more funny money around to delay the meltdown, a dead economy, a Secretary of State who doesn't know dick about what she's doing - and that's just today - what is our leader doing? Fundraising. Skipping security briefings. Going on Letterman. Maybe a round of golf? Just as well. If he actually did something, it would only make it worse.

...and people still support this? Absolutely disgusting. You people are either getting free stuff from the government, ignorant, America haters or a combination of the 3. You are as much to blame for this as anyone.

As Rome burns, Nero fiddles

bird watcher "War on Women"

Are you serious?

You consider expecting a relatively few sexually active women to pay for their birth control pills (about $7 per month) instead of having taxpayers pay for them is a 'War on Women'?

The REAL war on women is being waged in hard-line Islamic countries where a woman could get her nose cut off for not wearing a veil, or get stoned to death for having sex outside of marriage, or get whipped for walking with a man that is not her husband, or jailed for driving a car, and where it is forbidden for young girls to go to school.

Women in America have unprecedented freedoms that women in other parts of the World could only dream about.

'War on Women' indeed - what a comical 'talking point' from Obama.

PS - The so-called 'equal pay' issue is just as prevalent under Obama as it ever was - he has done nothing to address it, except use it as a talking point and take the women's vote for granted.

Friday, September 14, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

The recent numbers may have been impacted by a number of factors. Clearly, one is the fading of the president's convention bounce. Last week, Scott Rasmussen anticipated this fade by noting that the conventions would have no lasting impact on the race.

In Ohio Obama leads by a point. In Florida, the president is up two. Romney has edged back into the lead in Missouri and now earns 51% of the vote in North Carolina.

Romney leading Obama among independent voters, 54 percent to 40 percent.

The CNN/ORC International poll showed Republicans leading Democrats among the most enthusiastic voters, 62 percent to 56 percent. The enthusiasm level helps determine which party will show up in greater numbers to vote.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

OBAMA = ONE BIG A$$ MISTAKE AMERICA

ONE AND DONE!

ROMNEY/RYAN 2012

Here's a thought.

Since the Republicans are expected to retain control of the House, and possibly pick up the Senate as well, if Obama is re-elected, we could have 4 more years of gridlock and lack of growth.

On the other hand, if Romney is elected and he does not get things turned around in 4 years with a Republican Congress, they will have no one to blame but themselves, and we can perhaps elect Hillary Clinton and a Democratic Congress in 2016.

Food for thought.

Ticked off in Ohio "Friday, September 14, 2012 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote."

Keep in mind that Rasmussen's is a three day moving average, which means his daily numbers for Romney are now even higher.

All of the other pollsters are clearly biased in favor of Obama by showing he has more Democratic support now (30% more Democrats than Republicans in the sample), than he had in 2008 (22% more Democrats than Republicans voted - a record year for Democrats).

While it's well known that the vast majority of journalists are liberal Democrats, this is the most biased polling and reporting that I have ever seen.

roywilson...you summed it up better that the 4,000 bloggers

bird watcher "I guess some of you missed the results of the FOX News poll this week! It has President Obama ahead as well."

Contrary to popular opinion, FOX does not have a good record, or a Republican bias with polling - for example, their average polling error for 2004 and 2008 was a relatively large 2.35% - biased in favor of the Democrats (they overstated the Democrats actual results by an average of 2.35%).

In contrast, Rasmussen had the best record - with an average polling error of only 1.0%.

Gallup had an even worse record than FOX, showing a polling average that was 3.05% (three times as large as Rasmussen) - always showing more support for the Democrat than the actual results (Democratic bias).

Reuters and Marist were among the other poor performers, with a typical Democratic bias averaging about 3% when compared with the actual results.

When we have a close race for President, a 3% error can make all the difference in the World.

Roy -- I hate to be the bearer of bad news for you, but birth control pills are not $7 a month but more like $30-40 a month. Maybe Mittens would like to pay for that for every woman in America. I know, he can take it out of his off-shore accounts.

Obama/Biden 2012

Fox is sometimes......."smart as a fox". Tell the faithful supporters that the situation is worse than it is to drive them to the polls. Doesn't speak well for the honesty of Fox or the intelligence of their supporters, but the jury has been back on those two issues for some time.

The polls are always wrong when they favor the other candidate and always right when they favor yours. The common voter doesn't need polls. Simply watch the reaction of the candidates, the campaigns and their supporters.

The Romney camp is more nervous than a turkey on the eve of Thanksgiving Day. Many of their most visible and famous supporters are throwing rotten tomatoes at them. The electorate now sees them with their make-up askew and all of the ugliness beneath it.

Funny how the polls today are showing the Obama lead to have evaporated today (Friday)

Caesar Augustus-

you realize it takes CONGRESS to approve war and use of force. Romney nor Obama are going to have that sole authority unless they start trashing the Constitution.

Under the War Powers Act, Ryan/Romney and their neo-conservative advisers would have 60 days to reek as much destruction as they want without Congressional approval. You can start a war with numerous countries in 60 days. Once the troops are "boots on the ground", Congress will not cut them off.

(b) Termination of use of United States Armed Forces; exceptions; extension period

Within sixty calendar days after a report is submitted or is required to be submitted pursuant to section 1543 (a)(1) of this title, whichever is earlier, the President shall terminate any use of United States Armed Forces with respect to which such report was submitted (or required to be submitted), unless the Congress