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Subscribe to RSSObama got a bounce in a new CNN/Opinion Research poll. He’s up 52-46% among likely voters. That’s up from the 48-48% tie in the poll just before the conventions.
But in a new Washington Post-ABC poll, Obama got a bounce with all voters -- but not one with likely voters. Among likely voters, Obama and Romney are essentially tied with Obama edging Romney 49-48%. Among registered voters, though, Obama’s lead has expanded to 50-44%.
“As Americans mark the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks today, President Obama and Mitt Romney will pause from slinging mud on the airwaves by temporarily pulling their largely negative campaign commercials off TV,” USA Today writes.
Charlie Cook: “It is becoming clear that if President Obama is reelected, it will be despite the economy and because of his campaign; if Mitt Romney wins, it will be because of the economy and despite his campaign.”
And he notes this about the upcoming debates: “As a result of all of this, while voters are quite open to firing Obama, they remain quite reticent about Romney. Debates can and have been critical, but they work better for candidates who need to demonstrate that they are smart and knowledgeable, tests Romney met and passed long ago; debates are tougher venues for demonstrating empathy and developing trust.”
The Boston Globe’s Johnson has a must-read piece on how the Obama campaign views this race at a state-by-state level. It quotes David Simas, Obama’s head of polling and focus groups. He told the Massachusetts delegation at the DNC: “This election is 2004. In 2008, Barack Obama won 365 electoral votes, but I want everyone to remember what percentage of the popular vote he got: Barack Obama received 53 percent of the popular vote. That means 47 percent of Americans voted for someone else,” he added. “Pointing around a hotel function room, Simas urged his listeners to envision it cut in half, and then one table on one side of the room cut in half again. ‘That’s the margin of error,’ he said. ‘That’s what we’re going into.’”
He also said that the bases are locked in for both candidates and that with true independents, Obama leads by 5. “That is our present margin. That is the margin we have had for the past six months. … This is 2004, this is 2000. We all remember Florida in 2000, where 537 votes changed the course of history. We all remember Ohio in 2004, where 100,000 votes changed the course of history.” Growing more passionate, he added: “I don’t want anyone in this room to wake up on the morning after the election and think about ‘what I could have done differently.’ Because this is person to person, neighbor to neighbor, co-worker to co-worker, people you pray with and people you play with. That is what this election is all about. We win this on the ground.”
The Romney and Obama teams sparred over the validity of a study showing seniors costs would go up under a voucher system.
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Romney's campaign is imploding.....they spend every day, all day, either walking back what Romney/Ryan said, or attempting some lame excuse, denying what they did in the past, even though it is out their for all the world to see, or outright lying.
Obama/Biden 2012....the right choice, the best choice, the only choice if you want America to continue on the road of recovery.
well said Dragon1573721
ryan/romney campaign a mess.....all the superpac money, all the distortions and OBSTRUCTIONS and voter suppression will not allow romney to occupy the White House.
America Vote Obama/Biden 2012 the Voice of Truth!
Lies are hard to defend. Once discovered there is always that walking back of this or that. I believe we are just seeing the beginning of the mess the Romney/Ryan campaign is in. Not long ago, remember, many Republicans were voting for ABR
(Anyone but Romeny)
Hey Smitty, I forget...is GITMO closed? Are we still fighting in Afghanistan? Is real unemployment down? Man, my memory is shot!
you didn't try the kool aid did you? its only for dummiecrats
hussein is also doing a bangup job in the middle east also. I can hardly think of a single difference an american non muslim president would have done. EXCEPT condemn the actions immediately instead of saying we need to respect their religious belief. It seems to be okay they behead our servicemen and drag the bodies around behind their vehicles. Not a word from hussein. He did decide to send another 1.5 billion to the muslim brotherhood though. We need to send them hussein obama. That will fix all their problems. I am sure he will let them know that he is christian when he gets there
What First Read and CNN wont tell you:
The CNN poll oversamples Democrats.
"This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey's sample includes 397 registered Republicans and 441 registered Democrats. But the survey included a total of 822 registered voters, leaving only 37 independent voters at most. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters."
Keep telling your self it's a flawed poll Bob if it makes you feel better. I suspect it doesn't, because you kow in your heart Willard isn't even going to win Va.
Bob,
How doesoversampling help one Party/candidate over the other?
I can see it either way. If our President is perceived to have a solid lead it will encourage Republicans to GOTV while Dems will stay at home.
On the other hand if the polls show our President to have a solid lead it could discourage Conservatives and they will stay home on Election Day.
As I see it the advantage for oversampling goes to no one.
The advantage goes to Obama. Giving him a false poll lead helps his campaign.
Advantage goes to Romney b/c it will help GOTV
Ladies and Gentlemen, Bob knows each and every person who was polled and their political affiliation so when he says they polled more Democrats than Republicans were polled he must be giving more than an OPINION right? NO! He!! NO
Keep dreaming, there, Bob the unicorn may be real too.
Paul Ryan, another media made hero of the Republican party, and another media made hero crashes and burns. What is this 5 or 6 media made republican party hero's who have crashed and burned. When will America wake up and stop believing the media when they try to build a politician up, and make him or her something they aren't. Ryan, Palin, Newt, Romney, Perry, Santorum, Cain, Trump, Huntsman, Bachmann. Looks like the media is 0 for 10 in picking republicans. This proves the media is clueless when it comes to politicians. If the media would do some research on the politicians instead of listening to the idiots in the House of Representatives and Senate tell them how great they are, the media would do a lot better job informing the public. The media's young guns don't even know how to put on their pants. It's really a good thing they aren't trying to fly a jet as many times as they've crashed and burned already.
The newest research from Nate has it as the NOV 6 factors:
“Obama chance of winning 79.8% Romney 20.2%”
Electoral Votes:
“Projected Winner Obama 314.9”
“Projected Loser Romney 223.1”
Popular Vote:
Obama 51.5% Romney 47.5%
Note: 74.3 chance that Obama wins Virginia.
You're making Bob and the other republican posters on FR really mad with your facts.
Nate is a foot soldier in the Obama campaign....the campaign shares its inside polls with Nate, who doesnt bother telling readers he is in the tank...
His knowledge of baseball statistics is admirable, though
Bob,
Check out the Vegas odd for the election by swing states and overall. Obama tops the odds overall and in every swing state except NC.
Vegas odds makers are seldom wrong.
http://www.politicalbettingodds.com/2012-us-presidential-election-odds.html
Mo "you're making bob and the other republican posters on FR really mad with your post of the facts"
Of course they're mad. the facts don't work in their favor
So glad that commentator are calling ryan, willard out on their BS,can't wait for the debates.
Willard where are those tax returns??????????????????????????????
Obama/Biden 2012
An important bounce has yet to be included. The "Hug of Approval" from that big Republican white bear pizzaria owner is a killer for Romney. That is a picture that will open first the eyes, and then the minds of those elusive white male workers the Obama campaign has had such difficulty reaching.
Obama clearly has a policy message that aligns and appeals to that group. The President's message will no longer fall on deaf ears. The hug is the key that opens the door to the message.
Opened my eyes...the guy's a schmuc*.
hug killer for romney, you are kidding of course. we already know about the gay hussein obama. he was just getting ready for his next job. Go stick your head in the fence, could be your turn next
I am very concerned that many insider Democrats appear so confident. I know they want to create an aura of inevitability, but there is still an eternity left before November. Events could still rock this election. I am happy that Obama has a small lead, and I realize that he probably has 46% of the electorate locked up. But I think the six or seven percent in the middle could still fluctuate wildly. If Obama continues to be more specific than Romney and drives home the competing visions, he will win. Moreover, he must continue to stress his foreign policy achievements (because W's two wars helped to wreck the economy and the budget). But I expect a margin of between 1% and 4%. I am also worried about voter suppression (Gov. Rick Scott is committed to it.)
That economy thingie is still the 800 pound gorilla in the living room that just won't go away.
Barrack can air all the touchie-feely, "I'm a great guy" ads that he wants. That darned gorilla just keeps standing in your living room.
Pretty tough getting all worked up over the Obama campaign when you have been out of work, or way underemployed for years, and nothing gets better. Nothing ever changes despite all the Obama promises. Summer(s) of recovery?? Laser focus on jobs?? C'mon Obama,,,,talk is cheap. Lets see some real action. I know,.... Let's vote for a proven businessman. Let's vote for Mitt Romney.
absolutely. Lets look at the numbers hussein says are up
unemployment. thats up. Said they created 4.5 million job, truth is they also lost 4.45 million jobs, net gain about 50,000 jobs. Funny that never gets talked about.
Welfare up 32%
food stamps up 33%
gas up 2.00 per gallon and rising
groceries up 30-40 % and rising
national debt 16 trillion and rising thats definitely up.
1.5 billion to the muslim brotherhood. up again
the thing thats going down is hussein chance of another 4 years. one and done
only the lowest rated comunist news network could report this. Of course they forgot to tell you it was among registered dummiecrat voters. I got called on a poll two weeks ago and I told them I was republican, that was it they hung up. no vote from me