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Responding to the early polling showing President Obama with a bounce -- and lead -- after the two conventions, Romney pollster Neil Newhouse argues in a memo to reporters that the presidential contest "has not changed significantly."
"Don't get too worked up about the latest polling," Newhouse writes in the memo. "While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race."
Related: First Thoughts: After Tampa and Charlotte
Newhouse adds, "The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps."
However, as we wrote in First Thoughts this morning, Obama went into the conventions with the lead, and emerged from those conventions with the lead.
And as Politico reported over the weekend, “The Romney campaign … said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers — most glaringly in Ohio — are working in the president’s favor.”
“Their map has many more routes to victory,” a top GOP official admitted to Politico.
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Romney just is what he is, but you know who I will be glad to see ultimately loose? KARL ROVE, what a scumbag, cant wait to see his chubby little face the day after elections.
Yes ... Karl Rove is a disgusting human being. He essentially created the Republican playbook of FEAR and dishonesty that gave us 8 years of Bush, which in turn almost took down our economy. He is the real EVIL-DOER, to quote his flying monkey, Dubya!
Romnutty needs to stand in the creek and listen to his salamandor somemore so he knows his next move. He needs somemore LSD before doing so, and then he can finish writing his book of Romnutty's.
I can't imagine ANY military vet that supports a cowardly draft dodger who evaded the draft,one who never has never had a family member ever serve in the military and is yearning to send Poor and Middle Class Americans sons and daughters to war in iran to appease Israel.
Chris,
The trouble with Karl is that he doesn't really mind losing. He long ago positioned himself so that, win or lose, he would remain popularly perceived as the Republican oracle.
Romney's loss in November will be Karl's meal ticket to four more years of faux 'stategery'.
The Republicans were so bitter and angry over the last election, it almost scares a person about how they will act with another. I pray Jesus will fill their hearts wih love for all mankind not just rich white males.
I could name you 15 presidents that wanted energy independence by x time...they all we...we all do, but until we run our cars off coal tar or natural gas, that is not going to happen. Romney is not worried about the polls, but he should be. I just don't know how any woman, or anyone in the middle class could vote for him. He envisions an America of serfs and fifes!
Sure, why listen to the people you want to work for?? Got new for you Mitt, unlike your CEO days, THESE people don't work for you. If (really BIG IF) you are elected for president, YOU will be working for THEM! You may have been able to keep your business plan a secret from your minions in the business world but that worn't cut it for the job your pursuing now.
Let's see ... they don't worry much about fact checking. They don't worry much about polls. What DO they worry about? What ME worry? (Alfred E. Neuman)
Karl Rove and Grover Norquist own Romney and he is beholden to both. If Rush calls Mitt says yes sir Rush I will obey your every command!
If Romney wins. There will be riots and total chaos. You libs can't handle defeat. Obama is your God, and it is pathetic.
I've only heard Republicans claiming civil war if Obama wins again, which he will.
Evidently it is Republicans who can't handle defeat, as evidenced by their proclamation to oppose ALL Obama's policies and make him a one-term President from the get-go. What goes around comes around, and Romney, to quote Ann Coulter, is going to LOSE!
I wouldn't be so sure of that. Watch and see!! Get your riot gear ready. You libs will blow a gasket!
Only if Romney wins by a fluke like Bush did. If the R's are successful in blocking the democratic vote enough to change it, then you will see city's burning. If you got to cheat to win, you deserve to see right wing heads on a stick.
Where is Feisty, American Girl and Beverly from Chicago?
drinking and getting high, their God is ahead in the polls right now, cause for celebration.
2012 US Presidential Election
Tue 11/6
1001 Barack Obama wins 2012 election
-240
6:00AM
1002 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election
+200
I don't need polls to tell me who is winning..This is the current betting line for the election..That -240 means you would need to lay 240 clams to win 100 if you bet Obama...The +200 means you would only need to lay 50 clams to win 100 if you bet Romney....Vegas have been dead on on presidential elections for a while now.
Oh don't confuse them with reality. It hurts their little heads and makes them leave their section 8 housing and go live in tents a crap in parks....
If Vegas has those kind of odds for Obama winning, it's time for Romney to figure out what he's going to do after he loses.
The vets that support Romney are the ones that when they were in the military thought they were Rambo and everyone hated. We hated these Rambo rejects.
It is also amazing to me as to why any woman would vote for a conservative especially when American women would not have the right to vote if the conservative agenda had been followed. Republican women do not give liberals any credit for obtaining the vote for them.
And that's why they call it "irony."
The Looter-in-Chief has told so many lies that his simpleton Obamabots don't know the difference between fabrication and reality anymore. Or maybe they do know, but are as morally currupt as he is.... either way, the country deserves better.
I am a fiscally conservative independent and I am concerned with the direction both the last two Presidents have taken. I see little difference from a fiscal stand point between Bush and Obama. Both have spent like drunken sailors while wanting to either tax no or tax the "other guy."
If Romney and Ryan and put us on a path toward a sustainable budget then I say let's give them a chance. It can't be worse than the last two have done!
Obama came in offering Hope & Change. Our economic & political situation is at it's worse. The Change has been for the worse as our government has poorly invested out dollars. And our Hope is beginning to diminish each & every day as there are no jobs to be had due to the lack of trust in our government leaders. And that all starts & ends with Obama. Time to stop balming others. It's just not the American Way. Time to unite the country & not divide it. Not what true leaders do. Romney has, at least, a record of success. He know how to achieve success. Obama has shown his experience. His rhetoric has now diminshed below the value of the Greek economy. Time to move on. Doesn't matter who's at fault. Not worried about what Obama inherited. More worried about what the next President will inherit along with our children & grandchildren. I don't care if we like Romney or not. His record of success is what we need to tap into right now before it's too late.
Has nothing to do with 4 years of unprecidented OBSTRUCTION from the TeaPublican House, right? The Middleclass as usual are paying the price but TeaPublicans don't care. They just want to get that black man out of the whitehouse at all costs.....
Exactly what is Romney's record of success and how did he come by it? If you don't care about how he became successful and at whose cost, Saddam Hussein had a record of success as well.
Yes pull the race card out again.
That excuse sounds tired and rehearsed.
Hey stupid, its only the race card if it isn't true, can you deny your a bigot with a straight face? If you can then you should be running with Romney, he and Ryan are your lying S.O.S. that you adore bigot.
I would diss the polls too if I was planning on:
- Bombing Iran
- Continuing to let Health Insurance Companies charge 1.5X for women over men
- Giving the Ultra-Rich another $500 Billion a year Tax Break where they pay less that 60% dollar for Income Dollar as compared to the Middleclass now
- Continuing Tax Subsidies for Big Oil, the most profitable businesses on earth
- Taking away Woman's Health Testing and their right to choose.
Heck, this list could go on and on. Romney-Ryan are Liars like I have never seen in my life in politics or anywhere else. I'm still waiting for something to come out of their mouths that's not spin..... Obvious stuff Middleclass.....
You have your facts wrong. It is the Senate that is sitting on their hands.
The House has passed a repeal of the ACA, but the Senate does not want to touch it out of fear of reprisal.
Also the House has passed a budget that the Senate will not vote on it. If you do not like it then give an up or down vote. Instead the Senate is too worried about suffering the political consequences for taking their stand.
The House sets the agenda no matter what the Senate wants. That's been the problem for the past 2 years. They are called TeaPublicans, who screw their own Middleclass family and friends without compassion.....
Then the Senate should vote against the House's agenda. That is how Washington is suppose to work.
The Republican tea partiers set on their hands for 2 years while the Democrats struggled to save the economy from dropping off the cliff. The Republicans stood by and watched the citizens of this great country jobs get moved overseas, people losing their homes to foreclosure, students dropping out of college, people dying in the hospital emergency rooms and the list goes on. And the only thing Romney keeps saying is the economy - well it takes much more to be President and Romney nor Ann has what it takes. Clinton/Hillary and Barack/Michele has one thing in common - they are humans and care very deeply about the souls in the US. They would never say a corporation is a person. Mitt/Ann have ice water running through their veins and they are corporation focused. Their smile is even phony.
Romney-Ryan 2012
Democrats will continue to talk about GWB, Palin, Rove & Reagan.
They do this so they do not have to talk about Obama's failures as POTUS.
86 million Americans out of work. A raw unemployment rate of close to 15%.
A complete record of partisanship and division in Washington.
A unique lack of any sense of reality.
A willingness to marginalize the US as a world leader.
An utter lack of understanding on how to jump start an economy that is saddled with regulation and the looming price tag on the ACA. Yes Americans want health insurance, but at what price? Tell that to the unemployed person who cannot get a job due the estimates of what the ACA will cost.
Also I thought the ACLU backed left believed in civil liberties. What about the unconstitutional Patriot Act (signed by GWB granted) that Obama pumped full of steroids, giving the CIA unprecedented access to spy on American citizens? See the attached link.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2012/01/02/president-obama-signed-the-national-defense-authorization-act-now-what/
Obama has to go.
Romney Ryan 2012 ??? - lesser of 2 evils.
Maybe if Obama wasn't busy pulling Republican Knives out of his back, he might have had more time to get stuff done, no? 4 years of unprecidented OBSTRUCTION from the TeaPublicans in the House..... Fact!
oh my God, please, it is time he owns it. He has FAILED!!
Tough to get things done when the segment of government that holds the purse strings won't support the Middleclass..... Obvious stuff.....
Obama is a POS and ever one knows it. Give some one else a try and if he don't work out threw his a$$ out.WE Americans have to take control no more BS.
that is right. They all work for us!
Ken,
And the POTUS is held to a higher standard! It is his duty to lead! Obama has done nothing to show us he has the ability to do so.
Clinton and Reagan were really good at leading and reaching across the aisle in the name of civility and duty.
BHO does not have an amiable attitude to anybody that disagrees with him. His inability to compromise and his arrogant approach to his political adversaries is the main reason he will not win in November.
"Watching 404403", What plant is Obama from??? We sure as heck know he isnot an American citizen. Kenyan For life.
Good one.....!
Obviously RandyCon ... you don't know anything about Mormonism. Evidently Romney, and his ilk, are from the planet Kolob. Really. Google it and enlighten yourself.
RandyCon, it's very telling that you conceptualize America as THE PLANET. Kenya is on this planet, although President Obama wasn't born there. However, Romney believes Mormons are born on the planet Kolob. Yep, they do.
People like you make intelligent people like shake in our boots. Not only are you dumb enough to try to portray ignorant statements as the above as actually contributing to an intelligent conversation, but you get to vote.
Yep, that scares me.
The dirty little secret nobody wants to face is that we are broke and now we and our kids are going to pay for all that our parents and grandparents got. How's that for social justice?
Actually, governments do not have to repay their debt. That is a big difference be tween a government and you and me. Governments must pay their debt service (interest or bond payments) and must approve a budget.
Revenues come from taxes, and expenses are based on prior projects that Congress has approved. For example, the Postal Service is running "in the red" only because of legislation requiring them to fund pension liablilities for the next 75 years. That is simply a number derived from legislation.
This has been designed by the Republican Party, like many items of legislation over the past few years, to make an argument to "privatize" the postal service (meaning shut it down and turn it over to the for-profit sector.)
How well has that worked with phone service and cable TV? How well is this working for our medical system? Schools? etc. (you get the picture).
I agree with you, same tactics Bain Capital (aka Mitt Romney) used to destroy the business entities he dismembered and devoured. First trick was to set the victims up with an unsustainable debt (just as the Bush administration did) then extract all the assets, gut the pension fund, cost everyone their job, send them penniless out to the street where they have no home, no shelter, no insurance, no food, and then they die. Sounds to me like the republicans are using a Mitt Romney Vulture handbook to run their policies and strategies for the nation... strangely familiar ... where have I see this before ....could it be that ....Naw, republicans would NEVER think the American people were that gullible...or would they.
Yes... And in the language of economics and governmental stragegy, this he strategy is referred to as "starve the beast." Reduce funding and/or ratchet up expenses until the program or project is not operating as break-even or surplus and then require that it be "sold" or basically turned over to the for-profit sector.
I also fear for our national parks, if Romney and the Republicans win office. The parks are already required to be "self funded" next year, which means that they will have to sell natural resources to stay open -- or sell land.
Get that Black Man out of the Whitehouse at all costs.....! About sums it up Righties? TeaPublicans are pathetic bigots.....
It's not because he's black, it's because he's wrong. Do you always hide your mistakes behind racist comments? I'm not part of the TEA party, in fact far from it, but there is nothing racist about being concerned about out of control spending. If Condi Rice were on the ticket I think most TEA party persons would be very happy!
Condi Rice isn't on the ticket! And being part of the failed Bush Adm isn't exactly a selling point!
Ann Coulter- "our blacks are better than theirs"
Hey fiscal read many of these comments, and then make the claim about this NOT about racism.
FiscalKnowledge -- some people who are opposed to President Obama believe he is wrong. But if you pay attention to many of the comments on this news site, on other news sites, and on talk radio, you quickly figure out we still have a LONG way to go in this country to fight racism. Please do not pretend it doesn't exist just because you may not be racist.
Romney advises his base not to worry about POLL NUMBERS,
and he is not worried about FACT CHECKERS,
in short he is not too worried about reality.
The reality is that he will win.
Gee ... what will you do when he doesn't?
Luckily I won't have to find out. But you will.
I know you are, but what am I? Na-na-na-na-na-na!
(Sinking to your level.)
Nate Silver at 538 now gives President Obama an 80.7% chance of victory, Romney 19.3%. 318.8 electoral votes vs. 219.2
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
His predictions are incredibly accurate. Out of 50+ predictions, he's been wrong on 2 (very close) elections. Did everyone see that the Obama campaign raised more than Romney in August? Rats fleeing a sinking ship, perhaps?
When less than 50% of taxpayers pay taxes how are we supposed to fix the budget? It's time everyone pays a share. Everyone should have skin in the game. Why wouldn't you vote for someone who just promises something for nothing?
5 Trillion in Tax Cuts for the ultrawealthy over 10 years, with no plan for how to pay for it. Sound Like "W"-Economics or what.....
When the "ultrawealthy" (top 10%) are still paying 97% of all the taxes I'm not sure how your claim rates?
I think everyone needs to pay more. I like the flat tax or a very shallow graduated tax that makes everyone responsible. Do you have a problem with that?
Fiscal.
That 58 year old woman stocking the shelves in the middle of the night at Walmart, pulling down 9K a year, you want a piece of her action?