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Responding to the early polling showing President Obama with a bounce -- and lead -- after the two conventions, Romney pollster Neil Newhouse argues in a memo to reporters that the presidential contest "has not changed significantly."
"Don't get too worked up about the latest polling," Newhouse writes in the memo. "While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race."
Related: First Thoughts: After Tampa and Charlotte
Newhouse adds, "The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps."
However, as we wrote in First Thoughts this morning, Obama went into the conventions with the lead, and emerged from those conventions with the lead.
And as Politico reported over the weekend, “The Romney campaign … said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers — most glaringly in Ohio — are working in the president’s favor.”
“Their map has many more routes to victory,” a top GOP official admitted to Politico.
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Well border joe and your minions, you better get ready to be disappointed in November. The American public is just not ready for a flip flopping, big business elite of the Republican ilk. When Ryan was in Danville Ca the other day breakfast was only $20,000. We don't want and don't need this in the White House and it just won't happen.
Do you really think your "clever" epithets have any effect on voters with a mental age greater than a fourth-grader? Most of the childish simpletons are already Democrats.
Says the guy who's posting in agreement with people who write, "O bla-bla", "Obummer", "NoBama", etc...
Typical Republican hypocrite...
I don't think much of them either Chris ...
When someone posts a deliberate misspelling of a name to give it a negative connotation, I immediately discount their post as coming from someone with the mentality of a snotty 10 year old: "Republituirds"; "Dumbocrat", “TeaTards” "Obozo", "Dumbiyah", "InSanitarium” ...
My unscientific observations: 1) Such abominations appear about twice as often in left wing posts as in right wing ones; and 2), they seem to come in waves, spilling out like maggots among the rational give-and-take.
Fair enough, but I have to disagree on your 2 for 1 observation: The preponderance of childishness, hatred, pure racism and ignorance is coming from the RIGHT. For example: not many people on here remarking about Romney's Mormonism, but every third RW post calls Obama a muslim (which he's not), a socialist (which he 's not), or a Communist (which he's not). And so on. Look, i'd much prefer rational discourse, but that's nearly impossible when people can hide in cyberspace and say the dumbest, least factual things they can think up in their hate filled brains without any consequence...
I admitted it was an unscientific observation, Chris. If someone here has the time to actually do a count, I would be interested in the results.
Funny how the election staffs wet themselves when they are up a percent and dismiss the other side when they are up 5 points. The margin of error for most polls is +/- 3% so at worst the two sides could show a 6% spread that is simply sampling variation. In other words, don't waste your time getting too excited over small percent differences...pay attention to the trends.
The degree of paranoia and anger on the right is getting extreme: Obama forced the National Hurricane Center to cancel the first day of the Republican Convention, or the Democrats cancelled the outdoor event because they could not fill the stadium? Don't we have enough real crises without this made for Fox News garbage?
" Romney camp: 'Don't get too worked up about the latest polling' "
If the Romney camp wasn't concerned about recent polls, why did multiple insiders in their camp and the GOP tell Politico that their internal polling showed Obama had stepped out to a big lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, so in recent days the Romney campaign and GOP pulled their ads in those states -- essentially folding up tent and giving up there.
The Romney camp also stated that things were getting difficult for them in Ohio and multiple other states that were once thought to be toss ups -- things so difficult that they are privately admitting that victory is looking very difficult.
Yet again, the Romney camp shows they cannot get their message straight.
Perhaps the coalition of government workers, blacks, homosexuals, illegals, welfare receps, and other miscreants assembled by Obama's campaign is insurmountable and the Conservatives/Libertarians are doomed this fall. A sad day for America if this proves to be the case.
As they have always said so goes Ohio, so goes the election.
@hot daddy 4087878
other miscreants? I think you are just sad. America will be just fine.
If Obama is re elected after we've seen four years of do nothing Presidential Leadership I think all the Conservative should pull out and act like Democrats. Then we'll see how 100% unemployment looks like with 130% Welfare state (including the illegals).
Hope and Change.... From a man that never worked a real job a day in his life...
Hopefully we'll have enough working citizens to vote out Obama....Or ones that want to work..
The American Dream for so many has become much smaller the last 4 years under Obama uninspired leadership-the new dream here is SS Disability which the Feds have really relaxed the requirements. Everyone screaming back/neck/head pain and hoping to draw a check.
According to Rasmussen (a Right-leaning poll), Obama's lead has grown from 2% on Saturday to 4% on Sunday to 5% today.
According to Gallup (a Centrist poll), Obama's lead has grown from 4% on Saturday to 5% on Saturday and is holding at 5% today.
According to Real Clear Politics, which constructs an average of ALL available polls, Obama's lead has grown from 1.3% on Saturday to 1.8% on Sunday to 2% today.
The Independents are making up their minds.
Any minute now, today's Gallup numbers are due to be posted. It won't be a surprise if the lead has grown, even marginally. For Romney, the season is getting late. That he continues to struggle to gain traction and retain support is problematic.
One of my neighbors is the son of a guy who is a partner in a market research company. The company is actively engaged with conducting polls for the GOP. Yesterday, his father was visiting his son, and we chatted a bit. My neighbor's father said stats show that nearly 5 in 8 undecided voters are breaking for Obama, which is a noticeable uptick from two weeks ago. That isn't good since this is a battleground state that Romney must have to win.
Oh boy. The new numbers from Gallop, CNN/Opinion Research and IBD/CSM/TIPP are now reflected on RealClearPolictics (RCP).
Obama has seen gains for five consecutive days. The RCP average spread for the president has extended to 2.9.
Meanwhile, Romney has dropped for six consecutive days. Today he's down another six-tenths.
Boy the Republicans in these threads seem to be getting more and more hateful, bigoted and vitriolic. Could it be that they are sensing another loss in November? They should be, and I can't wait for all their whining come November 7th (day after the election).
We can only hope the House of Reps gets purged of all the Tea Party whack jobs currently getting in the way of progress. I'm sure even John Boehner would agree. The Republican Party is an unmitigated MESS, and I think it will be years before they can restructure themselves into something sane and reasonable. Good riddance for now!
Obama 2012, Hillary Clinton 2016!
Its what happens when people are in fear. The acts of cowards.
The same people who'll be taking pleasure in news accounts of voter suppression at 7:59:59pm PST on election night will be screaming voter fraud at 8:00:00pm PST after Obama is declared the victor.
From ecstasy to agony in under two seconds.
Can't hardly wait!
And I suppose you believe that comments like this from Democrats are just simple realism:
There isn't a big enough block of moldy (bleu) cheese in the world to go with all the whine coming from Romney supporters and the GOP.
If polls don't matter, why is the Romney campaign giving up on Michigan and Pennsylvania, when they still have so much money? (reminds me of 2008 when Gov. Romney bailed after still having more money than McCain, actually). Of course, it would be wrong to ask how much of the leftover campaign money gets kept...
Pa is simple-no voter ID in Philly. Cannot offset the massive fraudulently vote coming out of Philly. Michigan they should not yet give up on.
dear "we the people"-- how about if you all just pull out and move to canada.
Too busy getting ready for the coming Civil War here should your kind prevail at the polls.
PLEASE cecede from the Union already.
hot daddy,
Is this another "The South will rise again"? Go ahead then, rise. We'll kick your butts again.
Bring it:) We Built This and we are not going to give it to you without a good fight.
katinseatt et al ... Canada does not want the US's Republican whack jobs. I know ... I hold dual citizenship in both Canada and the US (currently living in British Columbia). Moved back to Canada last year for access to affordable healthcare. Won't move back until Obamacare is fully implemented in 2014.
Too bad we can't put the Republicans into a time machine and send them back to the 20th century, where they belong.
Yes, by all means, he'd prefer the majority of the people in this country to remain asleep so that he can steal the election with voter suppression and hacking of voting booth software.
November 5, 2012: Romney campaign issues statement that people should not get too worked up about the voting results. "We have $100 million ready to spend to have lawyers go to court in all 50 states to challenge whether minority voters' votes should count and whether polling places in poor neighborhoods should have been allowed to open without corporate sponsors." The campaign says it is confident that it can still buy this election.
It is now clear, that the OBAMA, will be victor. Romney has LOST due to the LOUSY GOP convention compared to the one the dems put on.
I think he's losing because he won't give the voters detailed plans that add up. Mid-westerners don't go for that.
Yes the Dress for Success Convention in NC was awesome! Looked like a fashion show for the local Goodwill Store. I have NEVER seen so many ugly women in a room before ANYWHERE! So this is the new Americana, huh?
Ugly and angry women from all over America are going to vote for Obama for sure. I just did not know there was so many of them in the blue states. If we had them here, we would be "blue" too!
It is clear that you are angry, about the Black man in the "White" house.
@hot daddy-4087878
I heard paid Trolls with names like Hot daddy are stupid.
I am very angry about the ignorant socialist in our White House. I am angry about what has and is happening to this once great country-from rap music to the turning away from God in this humanistic secular society that you seem so happy with. Really more sad than angry at this point. I do know one thing for sure that government solutions for problems are the worst solutions: you too will learn this when you grow up.
hot daddy ... I don't know why you are mad at Obama, because he is not a socialist. Go back to school and study socialism, then civics class to learn the structure of the US government.
How sad that you live in such fear, bigotry and hatred. Fellow dems, let's pray for him.
@hot daddy 4087878
Funny how people have different perspectives and different views of all subject matters. Because I think YOU are completely ignorant and it's YOU who should grow up. Hmm.....We live in such a great country! USA!
independentsista ... unfortunately propagandists like Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Fox News create irrational fears and ignorance in many Americans. That and a lack of education, something Republicans appear to be for. Dumb down the American people for their votes.
Oh well, free speech and all that ... I guess that's one of the things that makes America great.
reality?.... math?........ who needs 'em?
The OBAMA, will be president again. Thank god - America and middle class will be VICOTRIOUS over the GOP.
The ROMNEY, wishes to demand that every voter be endorsed by a corporate sponsor and pay 100 dollars for the privilage to vote.
GOP: Voting is a privilage offered only to white male land owners above the age of 40 years.
The Math don't add up.
The US yearly revenue 2.4 Trillion. Mittwitt Tax cut for the rich 5 Trillion.
2 - 5 = (-3)
How would he make up the negative 3 Trillion Dollars.
Why give a tax cut now, the rich currently has 21 Trillion sitting in offshore accounts.
How can a 5 Trillion Dollar tax cut translate into 12 million jobs
The 2.3 Trillion Dollars bush tax cuts are in effect why aren't they creating jobs?
"The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race."
What they (Republican's) are forgetting is the Party of NO has caused a lot of damage to this economy and our credit rating. Weeks and even Months of bickering, lying and fighting over who was born where and countless attempts to repeal the Affordable Health Care Act and the Republican's have done nothing else. I for one am sick of it and I don't think I will ever vote Republican again. Their attitude toward this country and our President has been a total embarrassment and I'm ashamed of telling or mentioning the United States when I'm overseas!
The Obama, will tear apart the GOP dog Romney, in the debates.
Mitt Romney will not be getting my vote. He is not to be trusted and neither can his VP choice.
For the record: When men can start birthing babies....then and only then will I listen to them as to my body....
Way to go savviegirl67 ... nice to hear you are not selling your vagina to the Republican Party. Unfortunately there are a lot of misguided women who will vote away their vaginas to the Republican Party ... they are a disgrace to their gender.
the fact that the GOP has pulled out of Michigan, Two elections in a row, is PROOF, that their numbers are dwindling and that they are truly desperate.
If they lose Michigan they also lose Ohio.
I still think that obama has inherited an economy like fdr did. And like fdr, to get back to full employment, fdr took over 30 years, a world war fought on two fronts and use of two nuclear bombs. And don't forget, obama has more restrictions now wrt use of nuclear bombs.
Nearly everybody, except sarah palin today, is soooo afraid of nuclear radiation that the bombs produce. Say if we were to go to nuclear war against iran. 10 to 20 nuclear bombs should bring the country to its knees. We would be holding back another 2990 nuclear bombs just in case iran does not surrender unconditionally. But the 10 to 20 nuclear bombs would put the entire middle east on radiation alert today. It would get soooo many people upset. Fdr just dropped a thousand leaflets before he used the bomb. Obama doesn't have that option.
And don't forget, obama has one of the lowest rated congress ever. 8% approval and dropping. They constantly are off on breaks and never pass any bills. If fdr had the tea party running the congress, he would never have passed social security, numerous national parks, and all his public works projects. Fdr would have been lucky to have had potatoes & crackers for his soup lines. Obama needs more help in congress. Especially in the house were there are soooo many tea party members funded by the kocks. Their motto - govt by the kocks, of the kocks, & for the kocks. With govt for the people perishing from the earth.
Hot Daddy- Your a hoot, If the black man stay's in the WH, we are going to rise up and start another civil war? LMAO Guess what our army's bigger that yours, it's called the American people! Stay in your trailer, or mommies basement, hating on everyone that's not a small minded bigot!
^5
I actually don’t read too much into polls either. However it certainly seems that the Sunday shows didn’t do much to help the Romney campaign. Both he and Ryan obfuscated when asked about specifics; Romney still can’t tell you what he’s going to do to offset revenue losses based on his proposed tax cuts while Ryan was made to look foolish parsing words about what he did and didn’t vote for. And the whole thing about now wanting to keep parts of the ACA intact after demonizing it for the last 6 months is just funny.
Hopefully, rational undecided voters are taking note…
Chris, you said exactly what I was about to say myself. I watched Paul Ryan squirm under direct questioning and actually, for about a nanosecond, felt a bit sorry for him. I think if the Romney camp doesn't soon do its own fact checking about what they themselves have voted for or against, any chance it has of prevailing will surely dwindle.