Responding to the early polling showing President Obama with a bounce -- and lead -- after the two conventions, Romney pollster Neil Newhouse argues in a memo to reporters that the presidential contest "has not changed significantly."
"Don't get too worked up about the latest polling," Newhouse writes in the memo. "While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race."
Related: First Thoughts: After Tampa and Charlotte
Newhouse adds, "The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps."
However, as we wrote in First Thoughts this morning, Obama went into the conventions with the lead, and emerged from those conventions with the lead.
And as Politico reported over the weekend, “The Romney campaign … said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers — most glaringly in Ohio — are working in the president’s favor.”
“Their map has many more routes to victory,” a top GOP official admitted to Politico.


If anybody on here is still employed and not living on the public tit and doesn't let Feisty and Girl do your thinking for you this is what was waiting for me at work......
Before you vote contact your Human Resources Department and inquire about your benefit changes.
"Healthcare Reform and Your Benefits". (Hope and Change)!!!!!!!!!!
1. "Introduction of a health plan tax in order to fund “comparative effectiveness research”.
3. "These changes will probably affect pricing next year",
and my insurance has already increased over the past one year 70%.
Lots of change in 2013 after the election and more to follow for the real middle class again in 2014. Amazing how this little turd makes all of his changes after the re-election. Sneaky SOB.
Real Middle Class=Those working and paying a mortgage or rent on time. Taking care of and helping family with either medical or financial issues, and also are required to take care of others who choose not to take care of themselves.
Romney is the only answer. Voting Obama out will save your home, wages, and personal pride.
Hope and Change for only those that will not or desire not to take personal responsibility for themselves.
Not Whining,
Can you provide us with the specifics of Romney's plan aimed at fixing our current problem?
Amen, but your are casting your pearls of wisdom among swine.
If Romney is our only answer, the only question must be, "Who has is the only candidate that has NO plan?"
Lyndon Johnson has a lot to answer for- the Great Leap Forward turns out to be a gaint step toward cradle to grave 'entitlements' for those who can not, do not, and or will not assume even a modest amount of personal responsibility for their lot in life. Obama is the President who gained the Presidency as the chosen spokeperson for whose for whom 'entitlements' is a core believe and, for far too many, an acceptable alternative to minimum wage work.
for
I think you should take your own advise. Take some personal responsibility and save the BS fauX neWs tag lines about your job giving you something about hope and change. Really if you worked for someone so stupid as to try and convince you your healthcare has gone 70% over the last year due to the ACA then I can assure Myth 'wants our money' Romney is your man. He lies just like this, off the cuff so to speak with no real facts. As we know facts do not count in Myth World nor yours apparently. So yeah go for it........ Myth/Liar 2012 all the way you robot sheeple you :D
Can you say BAAAAAA for us ?
Minorities (especially black people)
With Romney as President, leave your rights in your head. Because they will only be a dream. And the revised JIm Crow laws will make certain of that.
Women
With Romney as President get used to big government spying into your uterus
Hispanics
With Romney as President be ready to show your papers. Because this Country will be a police state and you will be the target.
White men
With Romney as President be ready to raise someone else's baby. If your wife, daughter or loved one gets raped and becomes pregnant, by law she will be forced to have the baby.
Girls
With Romney as President you'd better make peace with God. Because some of you will die giving birth. Because your bodies will not be mature enough to carry a baby to term.
Larry NC that is the biggest line of BS I have read in a long time.
I know right ....Romney as President is a huge line oV BS ...Good call pointing that out!!!!
Obama did not go into the DNC convention with the lead. Romney lead him by 49% to Obama's 45%. Stop telling lies to get Obama voted back in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hmm.... if that is the case, it seem to me, that Romney is in even worse shape than reported. This means he took a bigger dip... Maybe that's my interpretation of things though. *shrug*
It's looking more and more like Obama's detractors are having a harder time convincing the average voter that he's mainly responsible for the economic mess we find ourselves in. If that's the case Congressional Republicans should start panicking right about now.
Obama and the left made a big deal about Bush missing 1 (ONE) white house daily briefing in 2007. Just read a report that said that Obama attended 43% of the daily briefings in 2010 and just just 38% in 2011. And you wonder why the country is in the shape it's in. This man and his administration are a joke. As for the bounce in the polls that he's gotten...the DOJ and David Axelrod are trying to sue Gallup because they don't like the way they are conducting their polling. Nothing like a little threat to sway and stack a poll in your favor. Wait till Nov. 6th......
THE OBAMA PLAN!!!
We now take a break from all the Obama bum kisser media lap dog puff piece articles, attempts at misdirection from the real issues, obama supporter name calling and emotional drivel to present some facts about Mr. Obama's economic plans. Please note the highlighted portions if you are too stupid or lazy to read all of the real facts contained in this post
Here are the specifics on the Obama economic plan to go along with his big government as the center of the universe agenda.
Straight from Mr. Obama's fourth proposed budget. Here is the debt he is proposing to foist on US, our kids and grandchildren:
Almost $26 Trillion in debt proposed /projected by Mr. Obama. UNSUSTAINABLE! And we all know that in actual practice it will turn out to be a lot higher if Obama is returned to office. And on July 16, on Morning Joe, Mr. Obama's spokesperson, Rep. Jim Clyburn(D), admitted that the Obama plan necessarily will require middle class tax hikes in the years going forward after the election, in order to pay for the deficit spending and debt laden Obama plan. Which is why Mr. Obama is only proposing a ONE YEAR extension of the current middle class tax rates.
And please, when you see Mr. Obama on the campaign trail, ask him how much yearly revenue he perceives his proposed tax hike on those making over $200,000.00/$250,000.00 per couple (projected to raise $60 to 70 billion)will raise, and how that will even come close to his proposed $1.3 Trillion per year in deficit spending and debt building. Oh, silly me, I forgot, Obama doesn't take questions on the campaign trail. He only sits for interviews wqith People magazine.
Too bad Mr. Obama can't discuss his budget plan with the American people. He knows it will be rejected, so he is busy playing with smoke and mirror attacks on Mr. Romney and giving meaningless rhetorical speeches in the hopes of duping voters once again.
There are approximately 116,011,000 households in the United States It's simple math therefore that each household will have to pony up an average of $135,471 to pay the current $15.716 trillion debt. That is real money that the government has already spent on real things: bureaucrats' salaries, earmarks, subsidies, military, welfare, foreign aid … whatever has been the current whim of Congress and the President. In theory, that is money that has been spent for the American people. So ask yourself: What has the government given me that I would be willing to go another $135,471 in debt for?
And Obama just wants to make it worse.
Mitt and Paul are running scared,now-the road to victory goes through Ohio,and they are losing Ohio more every day.I live in a suburb of Cleveland and about 80% of everybody you talk to would vote for anybody but these two idiots.Thank God!
They constantly grip about Obama's failed policies when theey have fillibustered every program fro growth he offered. The lie about the benefits of the stimulous that kept us from going over the cliff. The lie about everything and blame Obama for their failed policies... Wht shouldn't they not recognize any pollster bumps...
Of course, he has to say that, since he's losing. Same thing McCain said.
Romney doesn't have the free pass card like Pres O has...oh well #paynoattentiontothemedia
That's right, the key numbers are 8+% unemployment - would have been 15% without President Obama, 23 million Americans struggling to find work - would have been 46 million without President Obama, 47 million on food stamps - would have been 47 million STARVING! Of course they don't need to worry about these early polls - they'll have full control of the voting polls in November and won't let anyone other than angry white guys in!
Lib in Oklahoma - SOS! - Short of peering into an alternate universe in which we did not spend $875B in 2009, we can never know what the effects would have been. We do know, however, that Obama was spectacularly wrong when he said that if he got the stimulus, unemployment would never rise above 8%. That alone makes me believe that his judgment on the need for the stimulus was faulty.
Additionally, any mistake ever made may be excused by saying that things would have been worse if it hadn't been made. Here, try it yourself: If George Bush hadn't invaded Iraq, the world would have experienced many more terrorist attacks ... or … If Democrats hadn't taken over Congress in 2006, the unemployment rate would have stayed less than 5% … or ... If we hadn't raised the debt ceiling, our credit rating would have been downgraded ... oh, wait a minute ...
Of course the Romney camp needs to spin this. That being said there is a long way to go. The future can never be predicted with 100% certainty. Romney still has a chance, but he is the favored. It is never easy to unseat an incumbent but Romney should be doing better than he is. My guess is that while he may be a intelligent and talented man he just doesn't have that touch.
In addition being behind in the polls, Romney faces a Electoral College that has turned against the GOP. In 2004 the Electoral College favored the Republicans. Not any longer. If the Republicans lose NC, you have to wonder. The Republicans appear to be weak in every region of the country but the south. If they can not hold a solid south (VA, FL, NC = 57 electoral votes) then what hope is there?
We need to change the rules of the game. Adopt Nebraska's method and end gerrymandering. This is the only way to restore our democracy.
He is right, come very late Sept, early October, polls look like this, WORRY. However the startling thing that is of most worry to the Romney camp, is that Obama has 3 MILLION individual contributors in August. Almost a 3rd of them Brand new. That is absolutely unprecedented. Not only were there 3 Million people who donated there were 3 Million Americans that gave an average of 58 dollars. Romney has been beating Obama in fundraising up until not, but the problem is, thats 3 Million votes, Ill bet Romney got that campaign stash from under 100K people.
If you don't trust your God and that he has the final judgement; and you care more about yourself and your pocketbook ~ rather than the good of this Great Nation...then you are definitely a Repulican!
"the good of this Great Nation" isn't served by getting more dependent leeches on handouts and expanding the already unsustainable Welfare State.
You guys couldn't manage a hotdog stand efficiently, much less $400 billion a year Medicare
With the present bias in media no poll can be believed.I honestly think that the dems and media will do or say ANYTHING to win election. Worse that I have ever seen. No honor at all,none. I only fear that after Mr Romney wins that the dems will not try to steal election.
Not going to happen.
The following is what Obama said in his previous speeches before Congress. obviously he didn't mean a word of it, otherwise he would not be submitting budgets to Congress that call for continued massive deficit spending and the creation of a $26 Trillion debt..
Yet, despite all of his promises and rhetoric, he has failed to propose any significant cuts or reforms, in any of those programs, that will eliminate defict spending, pay down the debt and balance of the budget. Choosing instead to demagogue and fear monger the issue, in an attempt to score cheap political points against his opposition, while knowing full well that failing to bite the bullet, and do what he himself has recognized needs to be done, will lead country into financial ruin. He appointed a Commission, on his own, and then ignored what they told him needed to be done. Yes, it was a gimmick to make Obama look serious about cutting the deficit, but the bills he has proposed continue massive deficit spending and make no meaningful cuts. And despite the language quoted above, he has failed to propose cuts in Medicare, Medicaid and Soc Sec. Choosing instead to act like a child by chiding those adults that are willing to bite the bullet and do what's neded so to save the country from financial ruin.
Yes we can,............. blame Mr. Obama for his failure to lead!
Obama went into the Conventions barely ahead by 0.something % in the average of all RCP polls...he's ahead now.
Maybe NBC had him ahead, but not everyone else.
Yes his lead should evaporate soon, but we'll see...
Now, take the big lead in the polls, the big fundraising from individual contributors, and add this, although might not happen but withing striking range. 7.8 or 7.9 percent unemployment in early October. Its all over then.
No longer worried at all about the polls. In my book, you are done Mr. Romney. And what's really sad about it is that you brought it all on yourself! I wanted to vote for you, but you lost me long ago! :(
You're another stupid, 2-bit far left liar....your comments from 2 years ago has you bashing the Republicans, and you never said you were supporting Romney.
Lying, two-bit hack. Every single time anyone on the internet claims to be a former Republican...it's a lie. Lefties are simply too stupid to properly disguise their true feelings.
Mr. Newhouse sounds like he's trying to convince himself.
Mr Obama says he fundamentally disagrees with the Romney plan.
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with trade being both free and fair.
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with getting tough on China and fighting for the American citizens to get back our stolen jobs and manufacturing base
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with reforming medicare to save it from going bankrupt in 12 years
Mr Obama fundamentally disagrees with balancing the budget.
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with stopping deficit spending.
Mr Obama fundamentally disagrees with eliminating the national debt, but proposed a budget that grows it to $25 TRILLION
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with the principle that federal government should be limited
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with enforcing existing laws
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with allowing States to assist the federal government in enforcing our laws and attacks States when they try to help out..
Mr Obama fundamentally disagrees with securing our borders.
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with adopting immigration laws that bring the best and brightest to the US, but prefers open unchecked borders.
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with opening up our energy resources, while expanding our energy resources into other areas.
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with the US taking a leadership role in the world, but prefers that we a back seat to those seeking to take advantage of US.
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with having a strong military.
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with creating an atmosphere conducive to the growth of small businesses.
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with extending the middle class tax rates beyond one year ( but only enough to get him past the election)
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with not shouldering our children and grandchildren with the burden of paying for his proposed massive debts and deficits.
Mr. Obama fundamentally disagrees with keeping us financially independent of countries like China.
Mr Obama fundamentally disagrees with making difficult choices now so that we don't have to face disastrous consequences later.
Mr Obama says we need to cut entitlements, but when anyone proposes a plan to do so he fundamentally disagrees.
Etc...etc..
Now that we know what Mr. Obama means by" fundamental change", we fundamentally disagree with Mr. Obama being President any longer.
Oh you forgot he is a Kenyan Spy in there.
The only people who agree with you are right wing gang bangers.
@Chris,
A spy for Kenya? LOL! HILARIOUS..... #Paranoid
No, I stick with facts not BS.
KingK ... fundamentally I disagree with your baseless claims.
Why don't you go back to Fox News, where you belong. You are NOT making any converts here. In fact, I think I'll go make another donation to Obama's campaign. Thanks.
Hey you forgot that he EATS WHITE BABIES TOO!!!! Just for fun I am told golly geeze guys we gotta stop this animal. Hide your babies he is like a dingo running wild. In fact I heard he has real animal DNA in him and he is plotting to burn all the churches down to create a more godlesS USSA !!!
Myth/Liar 2012
Actually Harley, it's the republicans that proudly stated, they want be dictated by the fact checkers.
You had a typo there...you mean they WON'T be dictated by fact checkers.
Disgusting, isn't it? Don't let the facts get in the way. Run a campaign based on bull, outright lies, and lack of specificity... because lazy people who won't go check the facts will believe them.
Honestly, people: DO YOUR HOMEWORK before you vote.
It seems to me that before last week when Romney was ahead, then the polls counted, as a matter of fact republicans can't wait to bring Rasmussen into the conversation which is a republican leaning poll every time. But now they don't count? Hmmm. Seems a little hypocritical to me. Oh yeah, hypocrite and republican should be one word. Hypocriticrepublican.
Or Republocrite.
Yeah thats the funny thing. Ill take the good with the bad, Rasmussen doesnt count NOW with Obama up 5, or last week with Romney up 5. If you are that sporadic, I cannot take you seriously. Gallup is the big shocker, even though they are generally slanted right about a point. You dont see 5 point gallup advantage flip to 5 point disadvantage a week later. The other thing of note, is that both Gallup and Rasmussen are doing 5 and 7 day polling now, so maybe that explains the massive swings in Rasmussen in the summer at least.
Yeah, last week they were ready to throw Obama a going-away party when the Rasmussen poll had Romney in the lead, but now that the polls have shifted back to Obama they want to cry foul. Unbelievable!
For a great take on the hypocrisy, watch The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. He does a great job, no matter which side of the aisle is guilty of it (even though the GOP is guilty of it substantially more than the Democrats).
Watching, I like it. It just fits. Republocrite.
If Pres. Obama wins the election will all you God fearing Republicans accept the results as God and give your support to the Pres. Obama for the next four years? You know that God cannot be wrong.
They didn't last time, so I doubt they will this time. Republican leaders made it their number one goal to take down the president. I call that TREASON. I expect ALL of our elected leaders TO DO WHAT'S BEST FOR THIS COUNTRY and TO DO WHAT'S BEST FOR THE CONSTITUENCY THEY SERVE. Enough of this neener neener neener crap. DO YOUR FRICKEN' JOBS, show proper respect for your President, and grow up!
No someone said they are going to cecede from the Union and start a civil war.....
You have been warned #ParanoidRednecks
It will be the republic of new freeland in some trailer park in Mississippi that secedes, and after 6 months you will see their trailer on fire and the ATF saying they knocked over a lamp on accident. Civil War OVER.
I think the cessation ended in La Place, La., when the rounded up the 5 cop killers, Sovereign Citizens," civil war, book burnings, stonings, public hangings, heresy trials, sound familiar folks, 1936-1945?
Obama 2012
No someone said they are going to cecede from the Union and start a civil war
Actually, a judge in Lubbock, Texas recently said that the re-election of Obama could spark a civil war. No surprise that it came from a southern red state.
Michael, racism and elitism at its best, eh?
Maybe all these white racists should join the Mormon church so they, too, can believe in getting and populating their own planets when they die. Then they can create the kind of homogenous world they so desire.
no feckin way
Unfortunately neither of these guys can campaign, especially Romney. This is Bubba's lead. Love him or hate him, BUBBA is SLICK.