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TAMPA, Fla. — No state has loomed larger in presidential politics in recent years as Florida, and this year is no exception.
Mitt Romney's path to the White House, like George W. Bush and John McCain before him, runs through Florida, the host to this week's Republican National Convention in Tampa.
Related: GOP elders describe high stakes for Romney in Tampa
The Sunshine State seems will assume just as important of a role in deciding the presidential election as it had in recent cycles, contributing to Republicans' decision to place their quadrennial gathering here, rather than other contending host cities: Phoenix and Salt Lake City.
"I think it's a huge advantage," said Florida Republican consultant Brian Hughes of the convention's placement. He noted that every network affiliate throughout the state would provide extensive coverage of the convention.
"It really energizes the base. You've got every key activist in the base on the Republican side engaged in this," Hughes said, adding that independent voters won't be able to escape the week's festivities and speeches, either.
Recommended: Some prominent Republicans won’t be in Tampa
Indeed, President Barack Obama and the Romney campaign -- joined by their supporting super PACs -- have already spent $110 million on advertising in Florida alone, according to NBC News ad-tracking sources, accounting for almost a fifth of all ad spending in the entire election. Team Romney and Team Obama are about even, at $55 million to date.
The GOP convention will be a carefully-staged operation engineered to selling the party and Romney to a national audience. But now, it will be a shortened affair after convention organizers canceled the first day of activities due to an impending hurricane.
But at the same time, Republicans hope the week full of fanfare and heavy local media coverage will help deliver Florida in November for Romney, for whom the path to 270 electoral votes is slim without this swing state. If Romney were to lose Florida, he would need to sweep every single of the 8 states rated a "toss-up" on NBC’s battleground map: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.
NBC News Political Director, Chuck Todd, looks at the electoral map and breaks down the road to 270 with other members of the Meet the Press roundtable.
Romney won the state's late January primary, and Florida, in many ways, serves as a microcosm for the general election.
Florida was one of the states hardest hit by the collapse of the housing market in 2008, sending the state spiraling into an especially deep recession. The unemployment rate for the state is 8.8 percent, higher than the national rate of 8.2 percent.
The economy in Florida "will likely be a real drag on President Obama," said Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor, whose district includes central Tampa.
"People's property values have not recovered, and if people had savings, it would have been in their home," she said. "For all the talk about jobs and innovation and education, people may look at what they're worth and decide on that basis."
But if the state is a perfect example of the dangers for Obama, it's also a state that illustrates some of the challenges that Romney most overcome.
Obama led Romney by three percent, 49 to 46 percent, in a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released last week. But Obama's lead is also built, in part, upon advantages he holds with women and Hispanics, mirroring his edge the president holds with those two groups nationally.
Obama leads 53 to 41 percent among Florida women, and 61 to 31 percent among Hispanics (despite the Republican sympathies of the state's large Cuban American population). To compare, in 2008, Obama beat Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) in Florida 52-47 percent among women voters, according to exit polls, and 57-42 percent among Latinos.
The convention's lineup will put some of the GOP's rising women and Latino leaders in the spotlight, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R), a conservative darling whom many conservatives Romney had hoped Romney would pick as his running mate. Rubio will introduce Romney before the presumptive Republican nominee's acceptance speech.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush said Mitt Romney's acceptance speech will afford him the opportunity to speak directly to the voters with his platform going forward.
The convention will also give Romney and the rest of the Republican Party a chance to make their case for Medicare reforms in a state where seniors and retirees exert an outsized influence in elections.
Presumptive vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan's two budgets as chairman of the House Budget Committee propose major changes to Medicare, principally by turning it into a system where seniors would receive a voucher — or premium support – to seek health insurance. (A later version of Ryan's plan would allow retirees to maintain traditional Medicare.)
The fact that Romney and Ryan have promised no changes for Americans over the age of 55 hasn't stopped Medicare from becoming a central issue in the campaign, even moreso in Florida. Ryan last weekend took his case on Medicare to seniors at The Villages, the sprawling retirement community just about two hours from Tampa.
And in the end, geography could prove decisive in determining the winner of Florida's 29 electoral votes in November.
Hillsbrough Country — which encompasses Tampa — and adjacent Pinellas County — which includes much of St. Petersburg — have emerged as a bellwether for the rest of the state.
"I find it hard to think they'll speak to the hardworking voters here of central Florida," Castor said of the Romney-Ryan's regional appeal. "People are independent-minded…They would really have to moderate their message. What is their vision besides large tax cuts for corporate America and the top one or two percent?"
Even at the apex of his political strength, Obama only bested McCain by about 10,000 of 430,000 votes cast in Hillsbrough in 2008; Obama's 53-45 percent victory in Pinellas was more comfortable.
George W. Bush won Hillsbrough in both of his presidential campaigns, but split the difference in the slightly more Democratic Pinellas County. Bush lost Pinellas in 2000, but won by 226 votes in 2004.
"Every poll that's looked at Florida in recent weeks — at the core of them, they're all within the margins," Hughes said. "It's a dogfight."
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Just had a little scare....The IQ on this page dropped from 132 to 86.
Then realized that the moron Kamo was not on Ignore!
Put it back on Ignore and the IQ went right back to 132.
Wonder who's his daddy??? Must be that molester, Rick 312779.
The following important figures to the Republicans, are NOT attending the Convention this year, including the two living former Republican presidents!
In all honesty, can you blame them????
Former President George W. Bush
Former First Lady Laura Bush
Former President George H.W. Bush
Former Vice President Dick Cheney
Sarah Palin
Jon Huntsman
Montana Senate candidate Denny Rehberg
Hawaii Senate candidate Linda Lingle
Connecticut Senate candidate Linda McMahon
Virginia Senate candidate George Allen
New Mexico Senate candidate Heather Wilson
Rep. Joe Walsh
Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley
Louisiana Gov. Bob Jindal
The Republican Convention....the snorefest that no one is watching.
Trying to make Bishop Romney appealing is like trying to put lipstick on a pig...no matter how pretty you try to make the pig, it's still a pig.
GOP Word Association
WORD = GOP Association
Old People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
Sick People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
Poor People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
Female People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
Non-white People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
Non-christian People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
Unemployed People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
Gay People = Glob of cells that we don't care about. Let them die.
Glob of cells in a womb = Something we PRETEND to care about just to get votes.
I DO NOT UNDERSTAND HOW EVERYONE SEEMS TO BE BLIND:
-In just four year Obama has doubled our national deficit, something he said made George Bush "un American"
-Bailed out banked and auto giants, how much did each job created cost?
-Supported wall street riots, saying its ok to be mad and wave your fist at people for succeeding and creating jobs and stimulating the economy?
-Passed obama care, that will cost the American people how much?
-Approved Solyndra $530 million loan guarantee shortly after they made sizable contributions to his campaign. what happened to Solyndra?
These are not hidden facts they are things we see every day. How can this be acceptable to Americans? I am truly at a loss and wish I could understand how obama is leading in the polls.
FACTS YOU'LL NEVER
HEAR ON FOX
NEWS:
FACT: Roger Ailes is president of Fox News Channel, chairman of the Fox
Television Stations Group. Ailes was a media consultant for Republican
presidents Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush.
JOBS -- Under Obama,
4.5 Million private sector jobs have been
created in just the past 3 years - this after Bush losing 750K per month at the
end of his term. Labor Force Statistics from the Current
Population Survey (Source: BLS Rpt. LNU02000000)
GOP MISLEAD WITH:
"LESS PEOPLE WORKING NOW THAN 2009" - These job losses occurred
during Obama's
first year. It took time to turn things around after Bush's 750K jobs lost per
month. If you read the graph at bottom you can clearly see that under Obama job
losses were turned around.
DEBT - - per
Congressional Budget
Office -- BUSH LEFT Obama $1.2 Trillion DEFICIT, and 3 Trillion in DEBT
projected into Obama's term. Add to this the worst economic crisis in 80
years. GOP 2006 Senate, 49/49/2. Who's to blame for our
debt?
STOCK MARKET- Under
Bush, DOW closed at around 8000. Under
Obama, we're now at 13000! Obama's policies have benefited "ALL our
retirements
and 401K" with stock market recovery!
ECONOMIC GROWTH -
Positive Growth
now AFTER BEING HANDED Negative by Bush.
TARP - with the threat
of
further regulation, most of TARP has been paid back w/ interest! Under Bush,
this $$$ was loaned unconditionally amounting to corporate
welfare.
FACTS YOU'LL NEVER
HEAR ON FOX
NEWS:
FACT: Roger Ailes is president of Fox News Channel, chairman of the Fox
Television Stations Group. Ailes was a media consultant for Republican
presidents Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush.
JOBS -- Under Obama,
4.5 Million private sector jobs have been
created in just the past 3 years - this after Bush losing 750K per month at the
end of his term. Labor Force Statistics from the Current
Population Survey (Source: BLS Rpt. LNU02000000)
GOP MISLEAD WITH:
"LESS PEOPLE WORKING NOW THAN 2009" - These job losses occurred
during Obama's
first year. It took time to turn things around after Bush's 750K jobs lost per
month. If you read the graph at bottom you can clearly see that under Obama job
losses were turned around.
DEBT - - per
Congressional Budget
Office -- BUSH LEFT Obama $1.2 Trillion DEFICIT, and 3 Trillion in DEBT
projected into Obama's term. Add to this the worst economic crisis in 80
years. GOP 2006 Senate, 49/49/2. Who's to blame for our
debt?
STOCK MARKET- Under
Bush, DOW closed at around 8000. Under
Obama, we're now at 13000! Obama's policies have benefited "ALL our
retirements
and 401K" with stock market recovery!
ECONOMIC GROWTH -
Positive Growth
now AFTER BEING HANDED Negative by Bush.
TARP - with the threat
of
further regulation, most of TARP has been paid back w/ interest! Under Bush,
this $$$ was loaned unconditionally amounting to corporate
welfare.
FACTS YOU'LL NEVER
HEAR ON FOX
NEWS:
FACT: Roger Ailes is president of Fox News Channel, chairman of the Fox
Television Stations Group. Ailes was a media consultant for Republican
presidents Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush.
JOBS -- Under Obama,
4.5 Million private sector jobs have been
created in just the past 3 years - this after Bush losing 750K per month at the
end of his term. Labor Force Statistics from the Current
Population Survey (Source: BLS Rpt. LNU02000000)
GOP MISLEAD WITH:
"LESS PEOPLE WORKING NOW THAN 2009" - These job losses occurred
during Obama's
first year. It took time to turn things around after Bush's 750K jobs lost per
month. If you read the graph at bottom you can clearly see that under Obama job
losses were turned around.
DEBT - - per
Congressional Budget
Office -- BUSH LEFT Obama $1.2 Trillion DEFICIT, and 3 Trillion in DEBT
projected into Obama's term. Add to this the worst economic crisis in 80
years. GOP 2006 Senate, 49/49/2. Who's to blame for our
debt?
STOCK MARKET- Under
Bush, DOW closed at around 8000. Under
Obama, we're now at 13000! Obama's policies have benefited "ALL our
retirements
and 401K" with stock market recovery!
ECONOMIC GROWTH -
Positive Growth
now AFTER BEING HANDED Negative by Bush.
TARP - with the threat
of
further regulation, most of TARP has been paid back w/ interest! Under Bush,
this $$$ was loaned unconditionally amounting to corporate
welfare.