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TAMPA, Fla. — No state has loomed larger in presidential politics in recent years as Florida, and this year is no exception.
Mitt Romney's path to the White House, like George W. Bush and John McCain before him, runs through Florida, the host to this week's Republican National Convention in Tampa.
Related: GOP elders describe high stakes for Romney in Tampa
The Sunshine State seems will assume just as important of a role in deciding the presidential election as it had in recent cycles, contributing to Republicans' decision to place their quadrennial gathering here, rather than other contending host cities: Phoenix and Salt Lake City.
"I think it's a huge advantage," said Florida Republican consultant Brian Hughes of the convention's placement. He noted that every network affiliate throughout the state would provide extensive coverage of the convention.
"It really energizes the base. You've got every key activist in the base on the Republican side engaged in this," Hughes said, adding that independent voters won't be able to escape the week's festivities and speeches, either.
Recommended: Some prominent Republicans won’t be in Tampa
Indeed, President Barack Obama and the Romney campaign -- joined by their supporting super PACs -- have already spent $110 million on advertising in Florida alone, according to NBC News ad-tracking sources, accounting for almost a fifth of all ad spending in the entire election. Team Romney and Team Obama are about even, at $55 million to date.
The GOP convention will be a carefully-staged operation engineered to selling the party and Romney to a national audience. But now, it will be a shortened affair after convention organizers canceled the first day of activities due to an impending hurricane.
But at the same time, Republicans hope the week full of fanfare and heavy local media coverage will help deliver Florida in November for Romney, for whom the path to 270 electoral votes is slim without this swing state. If Romney were to lose Florida, he would need to sweep every single of the 8 states rated a "toss-up" on NBC’s battleground map: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.
NBC News Political Director, Chuck Todd, looks at the electoral map and breaks down the road to 270 with other members of the Meet the Press roundtable.
Romney won the state's late January primary, and Florida, in many ways, serves as a microcosm for the general election.
Florida was one of the states hardest hit by the collapse of the housing market in 2008, sending the state spiraling into an especially deep recession. The unemployment rate for the state is 8.8 percent, higher than the national rate of 8.2 percent.
The economy in Florida "will likely be a real drag on President Obama," said Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor, whose district includes central Tampa.
"People's property values have not recovered, and if people had savings, it would have been in their home," she said. "For all the talk about jobs and innovation and education, people may look at what they're worth and decide on that basis."
But if the state is a perfect example of the dangers for Obama, it's also a state that illustrates some of the challenges that Romney most overcome.
Obama led Romney by three percent, 49 to 46 percent, in a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released last week. But Obama's lead is also built, in part, upon advantages he holds with women and Hispanics, mirroring his edge the president holds with those two groups nationally.
Obama leads 53 to 41 percent among Florida women, and 61 to 31 percent among Hispanics (despite the Republican sympathies of the state's large Cuban American population). To compare, in 2008, Obama beat Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) in Florida 52-47 percent among women voters, according to exit polls, and 57-42 percent among Latinos.
The convention's lineup will put some of the GOP's rising women and Latino leaders in the spotlight, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R), a conservative darling whom many conservatives Romney had hoped Romney would pick as his running mate. Rubio will introduce Romney before the presumptive Republican nominee's acceptance speech.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush said Mitt Romney's acceptance speech will afford him the opportunity to speak directly to the voters with his platform going forward.
The convention will also give Romney and the rest of the Republican Party a chance to make their case for Medicare reforms in a state where seniors and retirees exert an outsized influence in elections.
Presumptive vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan's two budgets as chairman of the House Budget Committee propose major changes to Medicare, principally by turning it into a system where seniors would receive a voucher — or premium support – to seek health insurance. (A later version of Ryan's plan would allow retirees to maintain traditional Medicare.)
The fact that Romney and Ryan have promised no changes for Americans over the age of 55 hasn't stopped Medicare from becoming a central issue in the campaign, even moreso in Florida. Ryan last weekend took his case on Medicare to seniors at The Villages, the sprawling retirement community just about two hours from Tampa.
And in the end, geography could prove decisive in determining the winner of Florida's 29 electoral votes in November.
Hillsbrough Country — which encompasses Tampa — and adjacent Pinellas County — which includes much of St. Petersburg — have emerged as a bellwether for the rest of the state.
"I find it hard to think they'll speak to the hardworking voters here of central Florida," Castor said of the Romney-Ryan's regional appeal. "People are independent-minded…They would really have to moderate their message. What is their vision besides large tax cuts for corporate America and the top one or two percent?"
Even at the apex of his political strength, Obama only bested McCain by about 10,000 of 430,000 votes cast in Hillsbrough in 2008; Obama's 53-45 percent victory in Pinellas was more comfortable.
George W. Bush won Hillsbrough in both of his presidential campaigns, but split the difference in the slightly more Democratic Pinellas County. Bush lost Pinellas in 2000, but won by 226 votes in 2004.
"Every poll that's looked at Florida in recent weeks — at the core of them, they're all within the margins," Hughes said. "It's a dogfight."
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This just in.............as we speak Every Republican TeaBilly Conservative Extremist is being Tested for ........"Akins Disease"..........LOL.
You BetCha......Fer Sure.
That is very funny
Not as funny or as embarrassing as the floats in a parade in Germany.
Google...Parade in Germany Obama
It's funny. For the past few months it's been the same old stale tactics and mud slinging from the left in these comments. It's actually starting to get quite boring in here. Guess the energetic base is losing interest in Obama... i mean after all he said if he were re-elected he would compromise more with the republicans. That can't make you bleeding hearts happy now could it?
Open your eyes, shut your puke filled mouths... its Romney/Ryan in 2012.
That is really funny, too...
I know, I always have a laugh too whenever I see the name "Obama" too.
Sorry, but you are wrong. This hate is coming from the right. No specific on any issues other than give a voucher for Medicare.
By da Way…….Did any of these Republican TeaBilly Conservative Politicians Vote to Repeal their Own Socialist Healthcare that they Receive.? You know…………da one that that Covers them and their Families (Including Birth Control) all paid for by Our Tax $$$$$$$$.
I hear Crickets Chirping……
Lets break this down in simple terms. Republican TeaBilly Conservative = Self Righteous Hypocrite.
Republican TeaBilly Conservatives love to Contorl Women’s Minds and Bodies. What’s next? Are they going to make all the Women in the U.S. Dress up like “Cousin It”?
You BetCha…Fer Sure.
I really don't understand you Barry lovers when you say the Republican's hate women. Let me break the news to you, the Republican men "love" woman, it's the Democrat men that "love" men.
Republican men also MARRY their women and PROVIDE for the family. Then they pay taxes and provide for a slew of Illegal and dems illegitimate kids too.
Give me an F'ING break.
The women of the 60's & 70's sang a different tune, today the women following Obummer's Sandra Flux sing..."I am woman hear me....beg for birth control pills".
Republican men love women...just like in the 1950's; June Cleaver...barefoot, pregnant, and in the kitchen. Sorry guys...but women don't need men to keep them...we can work, take care of ourselves, and provide for a family, with or without you. We enjoy equal rights and equal pay, and would love it if men would like to enjoy our company and raise families(with or without marriage)...but we don't need your expert advice and knowledge to live productive, tax paying, lives.
Than you!!
I expect Florida to go with Romney. Obama has a severe problem there. First he screwed them over by his gross mismanagement of the Gulf oil spill; then he provided weapons to the drug cartels who represent a serious danger to the citizens of the state; and then he hides behind executive privilege to cover up his role in that fiasco.
Apparently the documents relating to Fast and Furious are so damning to Obama that if they come to light he would not only lose the election, but would also be sent to prison.
“The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.” ~Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader, (R-Ky.), October 2010
Republican TeaBilly Conservatives are willing to Ruin the Country and Sacrifice the Economy until they can get back in Power. Why do you think they have been the Party of No for so long.
Eric Cantor is still da Biggest “Weasel in Politics”. John Boehner is One Real Big “Puzzy”.
Wouldn’t Mitch McConnell make da Perfect “Turtle Head”?
You BetCha….Fer Sure.
You got it!!
Florida has shown that no matter who votes what, the republicans will "win". The rich own the state and every republican in office there and control all the ballots...which always seem to have mysterious problems.
This is why you will loose, trust me.
Folks, do ya ever Wonder why all of these Republican TeaBillly Conservative Extremist Whackjobs walk Funny?
Because they are Constantly shooting themselves in da Foot.....LOL
You BetCha.....Fer Sure.
Romney's a loser. Obama-Biden 2012 in a near landslide.
I predict the same as well. No more top 1% not paying their fair share.
Hi,
my name is Mitt Romney. I'm weird and will say whatever you want me to say. Trust me, I will even contradict, twist, or contort myself into any shape or form to make sure that what I say is what you want to hear. Just don't ask real questions of me; they make me very mad! By the way, Ann and I share the same hatred for dogs. That's why Seamus met its fate on the roof of our car. Next time, we will be more ruthless to any dog that ventures into our lives. Any such intruder will be speared and crucified for intruding into our lives and you people won't like it. Oh! one more thing; I have never hired an American before and it makes me nervous to say that I'll bring those outsourced jobs back to America but if that's what you people want to hear, it's fine with me but don't count on it.
Thanx Mr. Romney, can you tell us more about your mysitical underwear; and more about your tax returns?
Romney is responsible for 100,000 new jobs, he finances a childrens hospital in every state. He started and financed a program for the elderly that helps them with purchacing their medication and helps them financially if they cannon afford insurance. He established and helped finance homes, counciling and aid for abused women. He established homes for orphan and unwanted children and 75% have been adopted.
Oops, wait a minute, these are all lies. I'm sorry I thought for a minute I was a liberal Democrat.
Mitt Romney screwed up big time. His picking of Paul Ryan as his running mate, is a bust. He should have picked a senator, governor, or ex- governor. Ryan is no way, presidential material.
Romney? How can people vote for someone, who won't stand on his own record? The shame is, he's running on his money. He has no real substance; at all. That gathering in Mich., should have been polled; to determine, how many Mormons, were in that crowd. This lie, about Romney, reconnecting with the people, is absurd; how can he do something again, that was never there, in the first place.
And Biden is????? that's hilarious.
This election is a choice between two visions for the future of America: One vision is for continuation of the progressive vision of a balance between equality and freedom as the moral foundation of justice, and a more recent conservative vision of an entitlement due the wealthy and the equivalence of corporations to the rights and protections of natural persons under the Constitution.
A progressive future is one in which government is a custodian of the public trust and advocates for justice; where justice is a balance between equality and freedom. Government as a custodian of the public trust means that everyone plays by the same rules and that everyone is equal before the law. Public trust means the rights of the people to preserve and protect the common property of the United States is not severable to the interests of privatization. Public trust means that a corporation has no rights except those given to it by law and does not have equal standing with a natural born person under the Constitution.
The conservative future is one of a hostile corporate takeover with privatization of government functions. The corporate takeover means that having wealth is an effective barrier to others participating in the process of government. It means that government would no longer serve the interests of the community but collaborate with the wealthy corporate owners to establish a separate set of laws that entitle them to preferential treatment while creating barriers to competition by eliminating opportunities for others.
The free market is a myth: if it isn't regulated by government to prevent fraud, it is regulated by the corporate oligarchy to prevent competition. Free means not having to go to jail for fraud and theft.
Freedom of speech for corporations is a political myth: the right to free speech is a right of the natural born person, not an artifact of legal convention.
The conservative options for health care are no birth control, no abortion and no health insurance unapproved by a corporate CEO. The progressive option is universal health care and the right of women to make their own health decisions.
This election is about protecting the American value of living according to one's conscience, as opposed to having a religious elite create intrusive bureaucratic regulations supporting their sectarian religious doctrine.
This election is about education for citizenship, not choice for a privileged elite who don't want to associate with the classes below them.
This election is about living in fear, or finding a means to reducing the violence that haunts personal security.
This election is about who gets to rewrite the tax laws: a privileged elite who personally benefits from tax entitlements to the wealthy, or one who advocates for tax fairness.
This election is about who gets to nominate justices to the Supreme Court: pack a court with conservative judicial activists who want to roll back human rights, or one who advocates for judicial competence.
This election is a moral choice between affiliation or aggression, empathy or egotism, service or selfishness, cooperation or competitiveness.
The tale of two visions is the difference between a government of the people, by the people and for the people, and a government run by a plutocracy of wealth and corporate power.
why even waste your time voting? especially in florida. it was kind of a fiasco in 2000 when that cheating dunce bush won. your vote doesn't count, it's the electoral votes that count.
Why is our country always being held hostage by this state? Their economy was wrecked by people over speculating during the housing bubble and it came back and bit them in the butt. They base their economy in tourism which is easily affected by the economy and the weather. They complain about the federal government interfering in their affairs but when ever a storm tears through, they have their hands out for federal aid to rebuild. Finally, how can this state consistently have the worst run elections in the country? Iraq does a better job than Florida does.
Romney could win Florida if there are enough people who believe his and Paul Ryan's lies about their saving of Medicare. They want to turn it into a voucher program which will NOT work. Romney is a tax avoidance expert and Ryan is a FALSE deficit hawk and a right wing social issues gonk.Romney believes in self deportation. Maybe there are enough people in Florida get their news from Fox and listen to Rush Limbaugh. Yes, if these conditions exist, the Romney/Ryan ticket may win in Florida.
The economic drag is the only thing going for the Republican ticket. Things would be different today if the Republicans had even minimally cooperated with President Obama in turning the economy around, but hey that doesnt get them elected, does it? We have had Republican dirty tricks for as long as I can remember, but the obstruction stuff is the lowest I have ever seen. Given Paul Ryan's Medicare voucher plan, Romney's plan for more tax breaks for the wealthy, their proposal to privatize Social Security, Romney's hidden tax returns and off shore accounts, Romney's hidden immigration stance, the role of Romney's Morman religion, and the Republican War on Women lead me to think that they are not good for Florida.
LTCKOHL, this Republican party is not good for Florida or the country. . . . These politicians are a malignant cancer. They represent the 'Robber Barons' from the not too distant past who lack moral, ethical, and principals of fairness. Philanthropists they are not either. Mitt with all his money is a hypocrite. His bogus religious beliefs and church are nothing more than a Corporation seeking to brainwash people with their 'Cult' religion. Remember the 'SS' and Himmler's Aryan propaganda? Same fictitious bull@!$%# with Mormonism. . . .
Sorry, Medicare is too important, no one will buy Romney/Ryan lies.
Google....Parade in Germany Obama
See how the world is laughing at the United States.
jst
I'm sure you hear all sorts of things in your head other than crickets. I imagine you don't really expect answers to your nonsensical questions and comments. And if you get a rational reply, all you can do is come back with more irrationality. Maybe some of your "friends" think you're amusing (I used to), but now you are just a waste of space.
Let’s look at what has happened in Florida since Obama descended from the heavens. The state elected two Republican US senators, a Republican governor, a Republican attorney general and total control of both houses of the state legislature. Even Bush won the state handily in 2004. Right now, it is a virtually dead heat with about 8% undecided.
Well Road Warrior - The Republican success in 2010 is because the electorate isn't too smart. The electorate expected Obama to turn the whole economy around (that Republicans destroyed) in only two years. That didn't happen because we were in economic free fall when Obama was sworn in. He had to stop the free fall first (which he did) and then reverse the process which has succeeded in at least moving us in the right direction. Most Republicans don't even know what policies they are voting for. The only thing Romney has been specific about is tax cuts for the wealthy and getting rid of Medicare and Social Security as we know it. Oh yeh, and no abortions even for rape. So if thats what you want, go for it.
Florida is in the bag for Romney once it is made public that Obama steered the hurricane towards their state.
This country was built on political parties in one form or another, but the current Republicans are too extreme. They don't have the country at heart anymore, they would rather crush opponents then cooperate all because a small extreme wing learned the power of primary elections. 'Do what I say or i'll Primary you' The people in Florida need to understand what caused the 2008 economic crash and the huge deficits run up by the Bush administration. More tax cuts for the wealthy will not get us out of debt nor will paying for the debts on the backs of the middle and lower class help either. For most Floridians, the Romney-Ryan ticket is a huge disaster - I hope they see that before its too late.
Who is proposing tax cuts only for the wealthy?You could tax the"wealthy" at 100% and it wouldn't make a difference in the deficit. Spending is the problem, not lack of revenue. What do you think caused the 2008 crash? Bet you are wrong.
Both parties have become very partisan and very extreme and getting more extreme. That is good because we need two opposite parties, not two of the same. Why else would we need two parties if they agree on everything. We now have a clear choice which was what Obama said. I'm glad we do. Now, we will see what the American people want.
The Republican elite are desperate to continue the transfer of wealth from the blue collar and middle class to their coffers, this may be their last real chance with the changing demographics in this country hence we have "voter ID" (sic) laws and Citizens United and reduced voting hours. I'm a white guy, make a good salary and proud to pay my taxes, don't know why the NASCAR crowd clings to the red meat (anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-military weapons control, anti-union) these insincere, divisive clowns toss out to them. One of these days the NRA is going to wake up and realize who is REALLY on their side, then look out Republican Party.
if jesus was black they wouldnt like him either.
The Republicans will not give up control easily. They are currently on a quiet rampage to deny millions of Americans the right to vote by requiring state issued voter picture IDs. The elderly typically have given up thier drivers licenses and have no other acceptable ID. Many metropolitan voters do not drive but rely on mass transit. The only purpose of these laws sponored by Republican Governors is to keep Democrats from voting. It's a disgusting state of affairs, but that is the face of the Republican Party today. If I were a Republican, I would be ashamed.
wheres your taxes romoney?
I had lots of help in deciding who to vote for. I can easily remember
who said the middle class needs to pay more taxes while the wealthy get more tax
breaks.I can remember who wants to cut seniors Medicare they are paying for and
make them pay higher fees for their medicine or just not buy it all cause they
cant afford it.Who was it that ignored the countrys needs and put their politics
ahead of everything else?Who is it that wants to repeal the new health care law
that may help my kids or grandkids in the future even though I dont need it.The
very same court that once gave them the Presidency is no longer valid.Who is it
that has a tax plan to give the wealthy windfalls while balanceing the budget on
the backs of the middle class and retired seniors?Who is it that wants to
destroy planned parenthood?Who is it that has gridlocked every bill that came to
help the country as a whole and all for the sake of their politics?Who was it
that gridlocked a bill that would have created thousands of jobs and said the
President isn't creating any jobs?Who was it that said women should be forced to
give birth to a rapist child?Who was it that said we are going to cut everything
for everybody and the ones that cant make it can just drift in the wind?Who was
it that had two wars,drove the deficit threw the roof and said we didn't do
it,it was those baby boomers and retired people drawing their So,Sec and
Medicare?If your undecided mabey you just havent followed things on a
daily basis year around. YES I had plenty of help deciding my vote.OBAMA
2012.
Romney has a dodge for every question asked of him by the press. In his entire campaign he has given absolutely no real substance what so ever. His campaign is simply following Grover Norquists Quote "Just get us a guy that can hold a pen" Romney is a pawn of his major contributors and has no control over what would happen in a Romney Presidency. The debates should be interesting in that some one might actually pin him down to give a substantive answer. The day that Mitch McConnell proclaimed "Our number one priority is to make Obama a one term President" there has been no cooperation from house and senate Republicans. And for those that say Obama had both the senate and the house for two years, Republicans used the filibuster as their new religion. For the Ryan plan to work and balance the budget with out affecting defence spending they would have to cut 60% of all social programs. That is their plan. If they run on that though they would never be elected so they dodge, dodge, dodge. If Romney's greedy puppet masters get their way we will go over the thresh hold and truly become a third world county.
Thats funny, cuz in 2008, obama managed to dodge every question asked of him. So if history repeats, romney will be our next president.
Obama has not answered a question that has not been scripted in over 2 years. At least Romney has the noids to face these obama supported state run media types unlike the COWARD in the white house now that this same state run media types are even whineing about access to the president.