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2012: New battleground polls

Obama leads in Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin in new Quinnipiac/CBS/New York Times polls, but the pick of Ryan helped cut into Obama’s lead in Wisconsin and make that a margin of error race. 

Obama’s most statistically significant lead is in Ohio, where he’s up 50-44% among likely voters. There, Romney is a 39-45% net-negative favorability rating. In Florida, Obama’s up 49-46%, and Wisconsin just 49-47%. Voters were asked about how the Ryan pick impacted their decision. In Ohio and Florida, majorities said it made not difference, but in Wisconsin, while a plurality (45%) said it made no difference, more people said it did (31%) than it didn’t (22%). That was much wider than the 1-point difference seen in Ohio and Florida. The Ryan pick also doesn’t appear to have moved seniors in Florida, as Romney maintains a double-digit lead with the group in the state.

“Few likely voters are undecided in these battleground states, and nine in 10 say their minds are made up. Only one in 10 says they could change their minds about who to support,” CBS writes, but: “In all three of these battleground states, Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting this year. Republican enthusiasm about voting has also risen from earlier this month.”

What’s driving Obama’s lead in Florida? Latinos. That’s a wider margin than he won them in 2008, 57-42%. And that was a 27-point swing from 2004, when George W. Bush WON Latinos in Florida, 56-44%.