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2012: Obama leads in FL, OH, PA – and MI

Shifting to a likely voter model, Quinnipiac/CBS/New York Times finds President Obama leads in Florida (51-45%), Ohio (50-44%) and Pennsylvania (53-42%).

And there’s this: “A new EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan finds President Obama back in the lead over Mitt Romney, 48% to 42%,” Political Wire notes.

A Romney campaign official contends that the reason for the wide lead is that the Ohio and Florida “party ID numbers are way off. They have OH as +8 D – same as ’08 and they have FL as +9 D when it was +3 in ’08. Turnout is not going to look like ’08, when Ds had a significant advantage.  It will be much more even and these numbers simply don't reflect that.”

(But it’s also true that in the Ohio poll, voters approved of Gov. John Kasich’s (R) job 47-38%.)

USA Today notes, “Obama campaigns today in Ohio and is scheduled to be in Florida tomorrow.”

In Ohio today, though, “One big topic in Ohio: Possible military cuts,” USA Today writes.

“Ohio lawmakers are grumbling about President Obama’s decision to fly into Mansfield Lahm Airport tomorrow – the same airport that houses an Air National Guard Unit that the president has proposed eliminating,” the Columbus Dispatch writes.

Gas prices are higher than they should be.

“Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party are on quixotic runs for the presidency. While they are long shots, they conceivably stand a chance at influencing the election,” the AP says. “Until recently both were Republican officeholders — Johnson as a two-term governor of New Mexico and Goode as a congressman from Virginia. With their ability to draw at least a sliver of the electorate, President Barack Obama’s political team sees them as potentially unwilling allies who could steal votes from rival Mitt Romney and help the president to victory in a few tightly contested states.”