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Subscribe to RSSShifting to a likely voter model, Quinnipiac/CBS/New York Times finds President Obama leads in Florida (51-45%), Ohio (50-44%) and Pennsylvania (53-42%).
And there’s this: “A new EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan finds President Obama back in the lead over Mitt Romney, 48% to 42%,” Political Wire notes.
A Romney campaign official contends that the reason for the wide lead is that the Ohio and Florida “party ID numbers are way off. They have OH as +8 D – same as ’08 and they have FL as +9 D when it was +3 in ’08. Turnout is not going to look like ’08, when Ds had a significant advantage. It will be much more even and these numbers simply don't reflect that.”
(But it’s also true that in the Ohio poll, voters approved of Gov. John Kasich’s (R) job 47-38%.)
USA Today notes, “Obama campaigns today in Ohio and is scheduled to be in Florida tomorrow.”
In Ohio today, though, “One big topic in Ohio: Possible military cuts,” USA Today writes.
“Ohio lawmakers are grumbling about President Obama’s decision to fly into Mansfield Lahm Airport tomorrow – the same airport that houses an Air National Guard Unit that the president has proposed eliminating,” the Columbus Dispatch writes.
Gas prices are higher than they should be.
“Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party are on quixotic runs for the presidency. While they are long shots, they conceivably stand a chance at influencing the election,” the AP says. “Until recently both were Republican officeholders — Johnson as a two-term governor of New Mexico and Goode as a congressman from Virginia. With their ability to draw at least a sliver of the electorate, President Barack Obama’s political team sees them as potentially unwilling allies who could steal votes from rival Mitt Romney and help the president to victory in a few tightly contested states.”
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Pollsters still working to create a myth for Obama. Good luck with that. LMAO
RedSox - can you explain why the folks in New England (and specifically in Boston & Mass) really, really dislike Romney so much? He is not even going to carry his home state - neither of the 3 actually.(Michigan, Mass, or Cali).
This is great news! The only thing that could turn PA red is the voter disenfranchisement act, which could lose republicans a number of votes among the senior set. I recently had my mother, a WWII vet of the European theater, renew her driver's license even though she hasn't driven in 10 years. It was a painful and confusing experience for her at the DMV. I lay the blame for this on the gop. Shame on them for taking the vote from millions to gain an unfair advantage! The one reason for this crooked act was to defeat the president. There is no excuse for this in our country.
Wayne, voters repealed a law the Republican legistature passed here, that had eliminated same day voter registration, a process we have had for 40 years, without any evidence it created opportunity for fraud. The law was such a naked attempt at voter suppression, even Republican voters supported repeal.
Ever since Republicans captured the majority in a number of state legislatures November 2010, they have systematically attempted to make it more difficult to vote, by onerous voter ID requirements.
Hopefully, the Department of Justice will continue to fight Voter Suppression, and it should be put to the states to provide the burden of proof.
Thanks Amy for the comment. Conservatives are always waving the Constitution around demanding that we all read it. Then they ignore it when they disenfranchise voters to meet their own agenda. Then they have the guts to call themselves "real Americans," and talk of "taking their country back." It is beyond belief.
try entering the White house w/o a driver's lic or passport.
cal20- I don't think we are talking about the same thing here. We are discussing suffrage. You are making excuses for a party that claims they love freedom and then take it away from millions for their own twisted purposes. You characters love those flag lapel pins and to wave the flag like it belongs to conservatives only, but you would be happy to take the vote from what so many of you lionize as "the greatest generation." They don't get "fre stuff." They earned it.
hs 321 about#1.42 How right you are.
suffrage my -ss, it's our (US citizens) right to vote and the governments right to ensure only US citizens vote. Try voting in any other country. It's a sovereignty issue. Not a flag waving tangent that you imagine. Conservatives and independents are more likely to look at sovereignty rather than letting non citizens vote.
You are a liar cal, just like the rest of your party. There is nothing else to say. If you are so worried about sovereignty, why don't you demand to know where Crossroads gps is getting their money? because your party doesn't care what multinational corporation gives them the cash.
Wayne: that was a tangential leap: take your tranquilizer STAT. I am not a liar, I seek truth: is it true that
1. you are calling independents liars? Also 2. What the he-- is crossroads gps and why does that barb in your culo upset you? 3. Multinational Corporations don't bother me as much as centralized governments wil their armies, armed Police forces that can violently crush and kill any opposition? And look how much Owebama has amassed in his war chest.
That's right, look the other way when foreign money influences elections in your country as long as it goes into your party's kitty. You make no sense. Your party is traitorous.
Heaven forbid you are actually who you say you are, those pesky constitutional restrictions.
I think the Romney camp should realize, we are fired up and ready to vote for President Obama, if we could stand 8 years of Bush/Cheney we should have at least another 4 so President Obama can continue to clean up the Bush/Cheney mess. It always takes longer to clean up after the party, and it always costs more to clean up after the circus leaves town taking the elephants with them.
Union Cry Baby, Tennessee.
Nobody is fired up to vote for the President -not even his wacko
base.
Can anyone explain why these mainstream media polls always oversample Democrats to an absurd degree?
I find liberal polls are very much like liberals in general, misinformation mixed with little facts and pumped up statistics to fit their own agenda.
And apparently the old liberal media still thinks I'm supposed to be more concerned with how Mitt Romney spends his money than how obama has spent my money! Funny, isnt' it?
Bob in Virginia - perhaps it is because the Democrats are at home with their families in the evenings instead of out drinking at the club?
Mark - I find anything conservative to be completely stupid, cruel, greedy, and uneducated - you know, like Bush & Cheney?
Ted Cruz, an insurgent backed by the Tea Party, defeated the candidate favored by Gov. Rick Perry on Tuesday in a runoff election for the Republican Senate nomination that revealed a wide rift in Texas between the party establishment and restless, anti-incumbent activists on the right.
By the way, Sarah Palin spent a lot of time campaigning for Cruz, who's also expected to win the Senate seat by a large margin.
I saw a bumpersticker the other day that said, "I don't believe anything the media tells me"!
Wise words indeed! That would also apply to the guy occupying the Oval Office!
Can anyone explain to me why when things don't go right for the Republicans they always cry that they've been treated unfairly? Whine, whine, whine...
union 'baby' (?) And judging from your posts, we think you're a bit silly, and not to be taken seriously... ever! I lived and worked in Memphis for a few years, great people and state! Pretty sure I never met you though, lol!
Bob, I kept trying to present a reasonable explanation last week but apparently you (and a whole bunch of others) don't want to listen to it.
Free Market fan
How's that global warming caused by lack of regulation going for you in Texas? Yeah, Tea Party policies realy rock. Glad I eat lobster, not Texas beef, I hear you can't afford to feed the cattle.
That's easy Bob, it is because the republican party is shrinking, when you choose to exclusively represent an ever narrowing percentage of the population this is what happens.
The newest research from Nate has it as:
“Obama chance of winning 69.0% Romney 31.0%”
Not according to the actual voter turnout in the 2010 midterms: Florida D=36%, R=36%. Ohio D=36%, R=37%.
Just a few indisputable facts rather than unsupported opinions for you to consider.
Regardless of the polls, Romney has 3 chances of being elected. All start with an "N".
No, none, and not any.
You quote numbers for 4 states during midterm elections, Obama won by an electoral landslide, which means he turned quite a few red states blue. Not many young people identify with the republican party and their policies, and as the baby boomers start dying off in huge numbers the republican party will shrink dramatically as considered from a national basis, if they continue their narrowing focus. Young people and especially young women, blacks, and Latinos don't see much future in the republican party addressing their concerns.
janice,
Only 41% of eligible voters turned out in 2010.
mnay Dems stayed home.
It will be a far greater turnout in November.
Rasmussen says that 17% of Democrats are now voting for Romney! And I have no doubt that number will continue to rise. Many people are disturbed by the negative and salacious TV ads coming from Barack Hussein Obama! Many more are outraged at his 'they didn't build that' attitude!
The turnout in Wisconsin was extremely high and in support of Walkers great job their. I do indeed see a very large turnout in November because of the polarization of Barry's "Hope and Change" lie!
How's that working out for the socialists? Not so well, I think! obama' handlers are very worried, and they should be! Yes, it will be a large turnout, but not for the reasons the libbies think!
bill thomas And Rmoney's TV adds all real positive right?
Actually, having worked for a polling company, I can tell you for sure that when the polls are conducted they always ask for party affiliation, and make sure that they use balanced numbers, there is NO "Liberal" overburden on the polls, it is usually set to 40% Dem, 40% Repub and 20% Undecided/unaffiliated. If you do not like the poll numbers then complain to your representatives to shape up and start doing what is good for ALL Americans, then maybe the poll numbers would even out as the undecideds split their votes more evenly. Right now the Repub party is disgusting the heck out of anybody that really understands and follows the issues.
The only ones supporting them are those whose local stations just repeat the lies from the Repubs and never tell the whole story.. Fox News is, of course, the very worst of that set and what the poll numbers reflect is the fact that MOST Americans do NOT trust, Respect nor believe in the policies of the Repub/TPers.
And on another note, Walker and the Repubs ONLY won in Wisconsin due to one person who happened to find all of the winning votes in the drawer under her computer....under very suspicious conditions. And the REPUBS worry about "Voter Fraud"??? What a laugh!
Unlike BO, Romney is staying on point... and if you look at the economic numbers under Barry's watch there's not any positives to spotlight. That's why Barry's resorting to attack ads... nothing for him to brag about!
BO stinks... always has, always will!
bill thomas The only point Rmoney is making is that he keeps sticking his head up his ass. You just never know what his position is when he keeps flip flopping. I'm for this one time, next time its something else. I'm glad you like the man. Really good for you!
like Owebama's never flipped- flopped
"Can anyone explain why these mainstream media polls always oversample Democrats to an absurd degree?"
Because pollsters generally stay out of the Kentucky backwoods where right wing neo-fascist survivalist militias live to get opinions from the GOP's few remaining supporters. It really doesn't make any difference though. These guys don't vote because the FBI is looking for them. Does that help?
hate from the left
No hate. Just facts.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
The GOP is fading fast and it is being dragged down by the failed TP movement. Read 'em and weep.
B. Honest
#3.18
It is funny you mention Fox News. Up until recently their polls have shown Obama in the lead. Republicans are trying to put safeguards in place to prevent voter fraud and you are screaming voter suppression yet here you are screaming voter fraud. Typical leftwing hypocrites.
you are probably right that the republicans are dwindling in number. Not much surprize here as every year, newly indicrinated 18 yr olds are graduating from Union taught public schools, and college grads are leaving the Ivory towers taught by Marxist leaning tenured Professors. More people are government employees and Unionized as the federal, state and local governments continue to expand, Thus bankrupting all levels of government....BUT, the good news is that the Independents are growing in number and in strength- look at the Tea Party movement. Independents, not boot strapped Unions will decide the next election.
The failure of the GOP/TP/Neo-Fascist Party to attract voters to its unsuccessful political ideology might also be that it is just plain wrong. Ever consider that, cal20? Or does reality scare you?
Right wing vote fraud, can you say Diebold, whose owner was so very proud of 'Delivering the vote to Bush and the Republicans' With more votes for the Repubs than there were voters in some States and Counties where they were used??
And cal20, a LOT of those Independents USED to be solidly Republican, but as they say, they did not leave the Party, the Party left Them!
Truer words have never been said...Republicans have been working furiously to suppress Democrats' votes in OH and FL!
Don't forget Pennsylvania...
The way voter suppression efforts are being pushed by republicans, it becoming easier to buy a gun than to vote.
The democrats were the real voter suppression Party, a republican Lincoln changed that.
Cal20; After finding the Democrats did not support their bigoted political agenda in the 1960s and 1970s, Southern Democrats discovered the Republican Party waiting for them with open arms and now they spread their racist form of election rigging under the hateful banner of the GOP.
Just a little history lesson for you. Feel smarter? No? I'm not surprised.
Oh no!! Some of you don't like the results. Relax, there will be much more to fret about. Wait till the poll results come in after the debates. Prez will not let him off the mat now, republican convention will be a disaster. Watch and learn how to dominate the narrative.
If Obama can remain hidden until after the election he may be able to pull this off. His poll numbers always go up when he has been out of sight for a while.
Gee,
Sure looks like Obama's going to win easily. Why even hold this expensive election?? Just have these same pollsters decide who wins.
Won't be any voter fraud that way either. LOL
Read the poll people. In Florida the poll had 9% more democrats than republicans and resulted in only a 6% advantage. Ohio was 8% more and only a 6% advantage, and PA was 6% more with a 5% advantage. So our President isn't even carrying his own party. This poll is skewed and still doesn't support re-election. Hate when media uses this crap for headlines and how many buy into it.
Just keep on whistling past that graveyard!
August 01, 2012
This tight one is starting to open up a little bit more in favor of Obama. So, my current Projection: (Currently the states that will continue to play the biggest in November are Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida and Wisconsin. For now these states are remaining in the toss up status, while some leaning toward Obama. However, if the election were held today, Obama would win the general.
The key months for this race are going to be September and October. And as far as the debates, Romney most likely will have a problem in this area, along with his lack of availability to the press/media.
Another issue that will hurt Romney is the battle being waged by the President to raise the taxes on folks earning more than $250,000 a year. This is something that the majority of Americans are for and Romney is against.
For now the biggest problem for Romany is his record at Bain and the fact that he is hiding something with his failure to release his tax returns.
The projected election Electoral Vote out come totals are:
Electoral Vote:
Projected Winner Obama 293
Projected Loser Romney 245
It's a poll of likely voters and, apparently, there are more democrats within the group(sample) that were polled. Why is that so disturbing for you? Should they have hand-picked some gated subdivisions or golf courses to make it look like there are more republicans?
Why won't R.Money release his tax returns? ...and why does he get to write off $77,000.00 of taxpayer money for his "hobby horse"?
Job1
August 01, 2012
Its the economy stupid!
those calling for Romneys tax returns have the same zeal as the "birthers". Shall we call ther misled zealots as "returners"?
cal20
EXCELLENT
Here are the partisan break downs of the people polled:
In Florida they polled 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 32% Independents. That's a 9 point favor to Democrats right off the bat. Then claim that it's representative of the expected turn out. When actually it's a reflection of the 2008 turnout in Florida which was D=37, R=34%, I =29%. But in the 2010 election, the actual voting turnout was D=36%, R=36%, I=29%. So do you really expect the Dems to vote in the same numbers as they did in the 2008 election. Or is it more likely the 2012 voter turnout will be as it was in 2010?
Ohio CBS/NYT poll D=35%, R = 27%, I=32%. 2008 election had 39/31/30. 2010 midterm was D= 36%, R=37%, I =28%. So the poll had a 8% bias while the 2010 election voter turnout was D=R.
Uh, turnout tends to be higher in presidential election years.
The newest research from Nate has it as:
“Obama chance of winning 69.0% Romney 31.0%”
You folks on the right will say anything to think that Rmoney will win. Its your last ditch attempt to make your guy look good. But he can't seem to get that flip flop out of his mouth and or ass.
Oh, the Debates should be fun to watch!
During the debates all you will Willard say with that Nervous Nelly laugh is " Ronald Reagan this, Ronald Reagan that, Ronald Reagan loved me, Ronald Reagan did this, Ronald Reagan did that, Ronald Reagan had a plan Ronald Reagan loved this Nation and let's name it all Ronald Reagan."
Also, Willard will say, "don't ask me questions, It's my turn." Then the Nervous Nelly laugh!
Don't you just love it when the tea people Koch republicans try to explain a poll that shows their getting their butts kicked. From what I and the country has seen from Willard in the last few months I'd say it's probably worse for Willard than this poll shows.
Take heart tea people Koch republicans. It will get worse.
I guess we are screwed. Warren Buffet and George Soros definitely have more money to buy the office for the democrats. Especially now that Soros has now made billions on trashing our currency like he did in England and Buffet will make a fortune shipping oil from Oklahoma to Texas on his newly purchased Burlington Northern Railroad.
Watch the polls over the next weeks over this!
Thought I'd put this in the section of MSNBC that it belongs as somehow it got mixed up in the US section... go figure.... Read it and weep Libtards!!!
We are proud that President Obama is standing up for the rights of all the people. Freedom is what it is all about.
Obama - Biden Victory 2012!
Yeah Job1... Tell that to the 3700 African American clergy representing over 1,200,000 registered democratic voters...
Romney 2012!!!
Don't you worry, these 3700 African American clergy will stand with President Obama.
Obama - Biden 2012!
dont forget the Catholic Church! Owebama disshonored them off by forcing them to provide Contaception to their employees.
Since a lot of these post were about proving you are, who you are voted as - - why can't we just stop requiring all proof of who you are - - to buy a house, to buy a beer, to buy a gun, to charge on your credit card, to drive a vehicle, to get a payday loan, to get medical treatment, to get foodstamps, to get on a plane, etc. If our government can hand out free phones, why can't they give out free picture ID's. It just appears to me that for something so simple as to get a photo ID would create so much talk - there must be a reason why people do not want it, and that reason must be so people can vote and vote often.......... JUST SAYING
None of the rest of that stuff is Guaranteed under the Constitution, aside from purchasing a gun which is another tangle, but the Right to Vote IS. ALL Citizens must be able to vote, with the exception of convicted felons, but after they have served their time they too can be brought back onto the voter roles as they have done their time and served their penalty. The RIGHT to VOTE is NOT like any other business at all, it is a Constitutional Right and those right wingers who declare otherwise are pure hypocrites since they so strongly declare that The Constitution is The Law of the Land.
If they want to demand identification, then why are they closing down DMVs and places where those IDs can be obtained in areas with high Black, Hispanic and Poor people in these 'Red States'?? Pure disenfranchisement there, trying to tilt the field in their favor...UNCONSTITUTIONALLY!
Just Sayin!
This election may very well be the last gasp of the old white guys - e.g. the Republican Party. Enjoy whatever little victories you get because the country is getting browner and younger by the minute and the good guys will be in charge once and for all in the not too distant future.
PS - I'm white and over 60 but I have a brain and a heart - something many Republicans have been talked into giving up.
What conniez? Your white? Over 60? Shame on you...
Republicans weren't talked into it, they were forced into it because of the influx of touchy, feely, politically correct, bleeding heart liberals. You know, the ones who invite everyone to the party no matter what the outcome may be. As long as they have the thought of the moment the consequences are moot. Someone has to live in reality instead of ideology and watch everyone's back. Multiculturalism works about as well as sectarianism. Is that what you want? Of course, being sixty you only have 20 or thirty years left to have to deal with it.
conniesz
I know what you mean. I'm white and 53, and I would never vote Republican again (ashamed to say, I sometimes have in the past.)
The Republican Party has been taken over by uneducated whites and their Corporate-masters. What can you say about a Party that disputes the role of fossil fuels in global warming? Bunch of ideologues and greedy Wall Street vultures.
Amy ..
Oh.............. Brother!
Welcome to America -- A land where a man can grow up to be a woman and then turn around and get married to a man.... What a country!
Who p$ssed on your Wheaties today?
that is kinda great :)
Daniel Streibig
Welcome to America -- A land where a man can grow up to be a woman and then turn around and get married to a man.... What a country!
#14
Or even better it can be like what happened here not too long ago. We had a man that had gender reassignment surgery so he could attempt to marry his lesbian girlfriend.
I won't go into the dynamics of this poll but I don't think I would hang my hat on a poll that oversampled Democrat voters by 12%. This is especially significant in Ohio since it is likely that they will vote a largely GOP ticket. Sorry big spenders!
eisty Redhead Roselle, IL "aka" bloody fister & fiends petro t/s harlot
This, STenchAUNCH regressive Demoncrap claims to be partially responsible for helping emperor obama gain control over the people of the United States. Good for fister, u go ma G.
Maybe Big O, (as he'll be Known on the show) will have a bit part for a tk stop lizard on his new sitcom produced by Bill Maher & "ole" Mother Harpo One and done in Chicago, Pilot episode will be Fork you very much.
Starts out with big O in mikie D's trying to get a big mac an a spork full of choc shake 4ward
and Michelle pulling him out by the ear sayin; don't you know that two all beef patties will kill ya big O? an since you aint presbo no more I can't afford fer you to die till i get some assurance on ya.
big O says:
a a a shelie i i i ah a h got sa hungry, i a ah can't live on that tofu stuff and a a rice flavored milk an brockley with no cheese sauce or nuthin
Michelle says;
sides I'll get you your choc shake & special sauce in the car come on Big O.........
you get the idea come on now surely that would be Hilarious. I'd watch it. lol roll my eyes, ha ha----->rt
Vote hell no, mo, Big O
P.s. i just kan't help it, fister & fiends you give me so much to work with. Thanxxxxxxxxxxxx 4ward ho!
Why do all the voter registration people have to know Spanish?
Guess what? The latest Democratic Polls say..2012: Obama leads in FL, OH, PA – and MI. Go Figure!! An he hasn't got all the illegals registered yet!