2012: New polls

President Obama leads Mitt Romney 47-45% in a new NPR poll among all voters. (Here’s the full poll.) The poll oversampled voters in battleground states and found Obama and Romney tied, 46-46%. The poll was conducted by Resurgent Republic, a Republican firm, and Democracy Corps, a Democratic one. Obama’s approval in the poll is 49%-46%. 

NPR: “NPR Poll: Voters Would Amend, Not Repeal, Health Law.” The law is a net-negative, 43%/48%, but a plurality, 47-46%, approve of the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the law. By a 49-45% margin, voters want to move on rather than have Congress repeal the law.

Romney leads in a CBS/NYT poll, 47%-46%. It’s the first time Romney’s led in the CBS poll since the end of the primary.  Obama’s approval is 44%/46%, on the economy it’s 39%-55%, and on foreign policy, he’s even a net-negative at 41%-42%.

“Declining confidence in the nation’s economic prospects appears to be the most powerful force influencing voters as the presidential election gears up, undercutting key areas of support for President Obama and helping give his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, an advantage on the question of who would better handle the nation’s economic challenges, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll,” the Times writes. In particular, “the poll showed a significant shift in opinion about Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, with 39 percent now saying they approved and 55 percent saying they disapproved. In the Times/CBS poll in April, when the economy seemed to have momentum, 44 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved.”

Romney leads on handling of the economy 49%-41%, but Obama leads on helping the middle class, 52%-38%. Another warning sign in the poll, is Democratic enthusiasm is down compared to Republicans’.

“President Barack Obama has widened his lead among Latino registered voters, especially after his new policy directive toward ‘Dreamers,’ according to a new Latino Decisions national poll commissioned by the progressive Center for American Progress Action Fund, and the immigration reform advocacy group America’s Voice,” NBC Latino reports. “Obama now leads 70 percent to 22 percent against the presumptive Republican nominee, Mitt Romney. According to Latino Decisions, this is the first time in 20 months that Obama gets 70 percent of the Latino vote in one of their polls. Among U.S.-born Latinos, Obama leads Romney 69 percent to 25 percent.  Among foreign-born, naturalized citizens, Obama leads 72 percent to 19 percent.  Among English-dominant Hispanics, voters prefer Obama to Romney 66 percent to 28 percent, and among Spanish-dominant Latinos, the numbers are even higher for Obama, at 76 percent to 15 percent. In 13 “battleground” states, including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina, 71 percent of Hispanic voters lean heavily toward Obama.”

AP CORRECTION! “In a July 18 story about the presidential campaign's fundraising, The Associated Press erroneously reported that President Barack Obama could be the first incumbent president to be outraised by his opponent for the White House. Presidents Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1996 were outraised by their opponents.”

Discuss this post

I hate how Americans expect an instant fix to the economy, and blame Obama saying he caused it. Well, firstly, he didn't--Bush did. It's like people have completely forgotten that this whole thing is Bushes fault because the big losses didn't occur until after he left. Secondly, it took a over a decade to repair the damage of the Great Depression, and a World War. It's like America has become so obsessed with instant gratification that it can't see the cold truth--it's gonna suck no matter who is in office.

Nothing done right is ever done quickly.

  • 5 votes
Reply#1 - Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:05 AM EDT

it will truly suck and if romney makes it, there will be another great depression.

however these polls are flawed and only represent the answer they have been paid for.

stay on message mr president and talk about the disaster romney will create with medicare!

  • 2 votes
#1.1 - Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:56 AM EDT

Yeah, polls! ...So believable.

  • 1 vote
#1.2 - Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:18 AM EDT

Wow! Still blaming Bush for Obama's failures. That horse has been dead so long that continuing to beat on it just makes it stink worse.

Even if you were correct Michigan, Obama, faced with all that, still said "A year from now, I think, people are going to see that we are starting to make some progress. There's still going to be some pain out there. If I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one term proposition."

If he was truly oblivious to the situation then he was totally incompetent. If he was aware of that supposed state of the economy, then he was lying.

Or, perhaps, the situation then just wasn't nearly as bad as the one he eventually created.

  • 2 votes
#1.3 - Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:40 PM EDT

Vegas odds for betting folks:

Recently, we've seen a big shift in the most recent 2012 Election odds going back to the Democrats and President Obama. In the last few days, the line for the Democrats has moved significantly (from -155 to -170) which would mean Obama is back on the upswing.

...Beyond which party will win the election, as well as the people who will receive nominations from their parties, online sportsbooks are primarily focusing on who will win the election outright. Most have listed at least ten different people to win the election, and only a few of the names are truly surprising. The whole thing is totally up in the air, but there is one clear favorite - Barack Obama. Being that only 12 presidents have served a single elected term, with only two of these in the last 50 years, it is likely that President Obama will once again win his reelection - especially due to his relatively high approval ratings. Obama announced his bid for reelection on April 4th, 2011, and he had received more than 10,000 online donations in the first 24 hours in which this was possible.

The donations for the president don't compare to the HUGE $$$ Romney is getting from 17 cranky gazillionaires, including the crook Sheldon Adelson. However this is important not only in terms of vetting via true grassroots support, Romney running as the generic alternative with an "R" next to his name will only get votes from the rightwing core, and that won't be enough to win the election.

Romney has yet to provide a compelling reason why voters should switch horses mid-stream. If he continues to attack the president--especially on a personal level and conspiracy theory way, and continues trying to deflect his own flaws, Romney will lose. And rightfully so.

Come clean Romney! Romney -- He's not in it for you.

    #1.4 - Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:31 PM EDT

    The donations for the president don't compare to the HUGE $$$ Romney is getting

    Did you just make that up TP, or did you get it from someone else, because it isn't true.

    "Obama's total haul of $552.5 million so far still has him ahead of Romney's $394.9 million" (http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/16/us-usa-campaign-money-federal-idUSBRE86F04K20120716)

    I'm just glad that Obama doesn't have the three-to-one advantage he had over McCain.

    • 1 vote
    #1.5 - Thu Jul 19, 2012 6:38 PM EDT

    Obama the racist bigot and his building of welfare states.

    the new executive order will create a new White House Initiative on Educational Excellence for African-Americans that will "work across Federal agencies and with partners and communities nationwide to produce a more effective continuum of education programs for African American students."

    order will seek to improve educational achievement for African Americans at all levels "so every child has greater access to a complete and competitive education from the time they're born to the time, all through the time they get a career" the president said

    I guess all the whites and hispanics will have to study to get theirs huh?

    "you didn't get that on your own, Obama gave it to you" More dependant on the government than ever before (from birth to career).

    So if they never get a job it's from birth to death! A life time of welfare for African Americans.

      #1.6 - Sat Jul 28, 2012 4:37 AM EDT
      Reply

      Michigan-

      I agree the economy was a disaster caused by the team of a dem controlled congress and GWB from 2007-2008.

      Just don't conveniently forget the 6 years of prosperity prior to the Dems wanting Repubs out so bad, they refused to work with GWB. Sound familiar?

      Moreover, Obama RAN on promises to fix the disaster, he had no clue what he was PROMISING to do to get your vote.

      So, now, you really think all of a sudden everyone is going to play well in the sandbox if he gets elected for another 4 years?

      There is certainly more of a chance of Romney being a better leader of this dysfunctional mess.

      Again, the current leader is not doing a good job of leading.

      If you were a CEO and hired Obama as the COO and all he did was blame everyone else, would you as the CEO continue to watch your company fail? Or would you can his butt?

      • 2 votes
      Reply#2 - Thu Jul 19, 2012 11:42 AM EDT

      The other two polls release today:

      • Rasmussen: Romney 47%, Obama 46%
      • Fox News: Obama 45%, Romney 41%

      So much for you Anti Fox liberals. Fox has the largest Obama spread.

        Reply#3 - Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:28 PM EDT

          Reply#4 - Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:57 PM EDT

          "Don't pay any attention to the man behind the curtain and his tax returns", said the Wizard of Willard, "...just watch my smoke and fire aimed at President Obama". "Wanna see me tap dance while singing an awful rendition of America the Beautiful?", he added. "How about the Summer Olympics or Obama's third grade report card?"

            Reply#5 - Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:06 PM EDT

            you dummies want another four years of golfing, vacationing. and campaigning on our money. obaaaaaama doesnt even know where washington is. he too busy living it up.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#6 - Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:54 PM EDT

            Did you know that taxing the rich only affects the middleclass and poor? Why? Because you cannot tax the rich. Why? Because who are the rich? The owners of businesses like Wal-Mart, Penny's, Target, McDonalds, and a score of other businesses we see all around us. And what will they do if they are taxed? One of three things. 1- They will increase the cost of their goods and services (only affects the middle class and the poor), 2- Lay people off (only affects the middle class and the poor), or they will move out of the country to where the U.S. will not get any of their tax dollars (and that affects all U.S. citizens). Don't be suckered in Obama's antics, they only hurt the middle class and poor!!!!!

              Reply#7 - Thu Jul 26, 2012 2:32 AM EDT
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