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2012: New polls

President Obama leads Mitt Romney 47-45% in a new NPR poll among all voters. (Here’s the full poll.) The poll oversampled voters in battleground states and found Obama and Romney tied, 46-46%. The poll was conducted by Resurgent Republic, a Republican firm, and Democracy Corps, a Democratic one. Obama’s approval in the poll is 49%-46%. 

NPR: “NPR Poll: Voters Would Amend, Not Repeal, Health Law.” The law is a net-negative, 43%/48%, but a plurality, 47-46%, approve of the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the law. By a 49-45% margin, voters want to move on rather than have Congress repeal the law.

Romney leads in a CBS/NYT poll, 47%-46%. It’s the first time Romney’s led in the CBS poll since the end of the primary.  Obama’s approval is 44%/46%, on the economy it’s 39%-55%, and on foreign policy, he’s even a net-negative at 41%-42%.

“Declining confidence in the nation’s economic prospects appears to be the most powerful force influencing voters as the presidential election gears up, undercutting key areas of support for President Obama and helping give his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, an advantage on the question of who would better handle the nation’s economic challenges, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll,” the Times writes. In particular, “the poll showed a significant shift in opinion about Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, with 39 percent now saying they approved and 55 percent saying they disapproved. In the Times/CBS poll in April, when the economy seemed to have momentum, 44 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved.”

Romney leads on handling of the economy 49%-41%, but Obama leads on helping the middle class, 52%-38%. Another warning sign in the poll, is Democratic enthusiasm is down compared to Republicans’.

“President Barack Obama has widened his lead among Latino registered voters, especially after his new policy directive toward ‘Dreamers,’ according to a new Latino Decisions national poll commissioned by the progressive Center for American Progress Action Fund, and the immigration reform advocacy group America’s Voice,” NBC Latino reports. “Obama now leads 70 percent to 22 percent against the presumptive Republican nominee, Mitt Romney. According to Latino Decisions, this is the first time in 20 months that Obama gets 70 percent of the Latino vote in one of their polls. Among U.S.-born Latinos, Obama leads Romney 69 percent to 25 percent.  Among foreign-born, naturalized citizens, Obama leads 72 percent to 19 percent.  Among English-dominant Hispanics, voters prefer Obama to Romney 66 percent to 28 percent, and among Spanish-dominant Latinos, the numbers are even higher for Obama, at 76 percent to 15 percent. In 13 “battleground” states, including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina, 71 percent of Hispanic voters lean heavily toward Obama.”

AP CORRECTION! “In a July 18 story about the presidential campaign's fundraising, The Associated Press erroneously reported that President Barack Obama could be the first incumbent president to be outraised by his opponent for the White House. Presidents Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1996 were outraised by their opponents.”