NBC-Marist polls: Obama, Romney deadlocked in three key states

Now that Mitt Romney is the official GOP presidential nominee, President Obama placed a call to the former governor to congratulate him. Meanwhile both campaigns have already spent a combined $85 million on TV ads. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

President Barack Obama and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney are deadlocked in three key presidential battleground states, according to a new round of NBC-Marist polls.

In Iowa, the two rivals are tied at 44 percent among registered voters, including those who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate. Ten percent of voters in the Hawkeye State are completely undecided.

Read the full Iowa poll


In Colorado, Obama gets support from 46 percent of registered voters, while Romney gets 45 percent.

Read the full Colorado poll

And in Nevada, the president is at 48 percent and Romney is at 46 percent.

Read the full Nevada poll

These three states are all battlegrounds that Obama carried in 2008, but George W. Bush won in 2004.

“These are very, very competitive states,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted these polls. “Everything is close.”

Results from NBC-Marist polling in three other battleground states released last week – Florida, Ohio and Virginia – showed Obama with narrow leads in each state.

Optimism, pessimism and enthusiasm
In Colorado, Iowa and Nevada, a more optimistic attitude about the U.S. economy is working in Obama’s favor. Majorities in each of the three states believe the worst is behind us, rather than yet to come.

In addition, majorities in these states say that the president mostly inherited the current economic conditions. 

David Axelrod, a senior adviser for President Obama's re-election campaign, speaks with TODAY's Matt Lauer about the President's strategies for taking on the battleground states and rekindling the enthusiasm from 2008.

But what seems to be hurting Obama – and helping Romney – is a sense that the nation is on the wrong track, with 54 percent in Iowa, 55 percent in Nevada and 56 percent in Colorado sharing that belief.

First Thoughts: Still fighting on GOP turf

Asked which candidate would do a better job on the economy, respondents in Colorado (45 percent to 42 percent) and Iowa (46 percent to 41 percent) picked Romney over Obama. But the two men were tied in Nevada (44 percent to 44 percent). 

What’s more, Romney leads Obama in Colorado and Iowa among those expressing a high level of enthusiasm, while the president leads among those voters in Nevada.

Obama’s approval rating, Nevada’s Senate race
The NBC-Marist poll also shows that Obama’s approval rating is above water in Iowa (46 percent approve, 45 percent disapprove), and it’s underwater in Colorado (45 percent to 49 percent) and Nevada (46 percent to 47 percent)

And in Nevada’s competitive Senate contest, the survey finds incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller in a tight race with Democrat Shelley Berkley, with Heller getting 46 percent among registered voters and Berkley getting 44 percent.

President Obama phones Mitt Romney to congratulate him for locking up the GOP nomination. NBC's Steve Handelsman reports.

These NBC-Marist polls were conducted May 22-24 by landline and cell phone of 1,030 registered voters in Colorado, 1,106 registered voters in Iowa and 1,040 registered voters in Nevada. The margin of error in all three surveys is plus-minus 3.0 percentage points.

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Discuss this post

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If we tallied all the votes Obama would be way ahead, but
because of the way the voting system is made up now Democrats get an unfair
hand. Make the voting system so it goes per voter and not per district and the
Democrats would win every election. Time
to change the way our votes are counted.

  • 1 vote
Reply#29 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:52 AM EDT

You must be including all the illegal votes, dead people, Acorn voters who vote 3 times each, and jail birds, your right we need to change to voter ID

  • 3 votes
#29.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:58 AM EDT
Reply

Obama may win the election only because of the idea that he will take care of us, I need a leader to create jobs and downsize gov and gov spending. Go from 10 trill to 15 tril is not answer.

  • 2 votes
Reply#30 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:52 AM EDT

how can anyone create jobs when they are all overseas,and the 1% that owns them want them there?

  • 3 votes
#30.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:54 AM EDT
Reply

its a waste of time to even have these 5 months before an election.

  • 2 votes
Reply#31 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:53 AM EDT

Rumor has it that Willard El Presidente Romney is a Mexican anchor baby and a cult member

I wonder how will that play in the bible thumping bigot states

  • 2 votes
Reply#32 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:55 AM EDT

I'd say this poll shows Obama is in trouble. Romney, not the strongest of candidates, with his own Mass Health Care reform legislation to explain, is basically running neck and neck with an incumbent opponent.

But, in the end it will probably all come down to the economy. If the economy is showing increasing signs of life, as opposed to needing life support, then Obama will win. If not, he'll lose.

I'm probably alone in thinking neither candidate would represent an unmitigated disaster as President in 2013. Romney, for all his talk of being "a severe conservative", is really a political pragmatist, and an intelligent man. Obama, for all that conservatives equate him to the antichrist, has actually done a reasonable job under very difficult circumstances. Our economy, for all its sluggishness, is in far better shape than those of Western Europe, and people forget that both McCain and Obama were advocating stimulus spending back in 2008.

But it is going to be a long summer for the Obama White House.

  • 3 votes
Reply#33 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:56 AM EDT

Great observation. Thank you for that unbiased post.

    #33.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 3:50 PM EDT
    Reply

    The Roberts Court and Citizens United bring you Mitt Romney:

    Government of the 1%, by the 1%, and for the 1%. Sold out performance!

    Net cost $1 billion.

    • 2 votes
    Reply#34 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:57 AM EDT

    he may be for the 1% but you must admit he has 40% plus on his side already, the 99% stuff don't fly IN THIS YEARS ELECTION

      #34.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:58 AM EDT

      27% would vote Republican, even if it meant that their children would grow up uneducated, environmentally poisoned, and with no hope of health care or retirement from slave labor wages.

      • 3 votes
      #34.2 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:11 AM EDT

      Affinity... is into the class warfare theme but no real solutions. This is not resonating with the electorate and has began to work very negatively against those who continue to think this way. Unfortunately their only solution is anarchy.

        #34.3 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:12 AM EDT

        It must be class warfare when someone notes that right wing billionaires and Wall Street miscreants are pouring hundreds of millions into Romney's campaign, but not when the poorest Americans are facing income tax ruination for cuts to billionaires, middle class paid entitlements are attacked, food, healthcare, and education are torn out of the safety net, and middle class wages are stagnant, but employing corporations are swimming in rising net profits due to worker productivity increases.

        5 will get 95 that the problem will increase. You can't make war on a middle class that doesn't exist any more. Those are the terms of surrender. Rank and file Republicans are not screw proof either.

        • 1 vote
        #34.4 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:28 AM EDT

        You forget these wretched rich people are also pouring millions into Obama's campaign. So what is your point if not only trying to create class warfare. No one has created a war on any class except your narrow minded statements. All I ask i for you think through what you are saying. Placing the blame on corporations or rich people only to associate it to a politcal canidate is not the road you should be taking. I think you need to develop a different approach as this is not working. My suggestion is to leave politics out for a while and see the real world before making these deliberate one sided statements.

          #34.5 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:53 AM EDT
          Reply

          why if it isnt my comrade wes who obviously must also not be a troll if he is willing to call me comrade

            Reply#35 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:57 AM EDT

            Do you want another war? Then Romney's your man.

            Do you want to lose all religious freedom (specifically freedom FROM religion)? Romney's your man.

            Do you want the very wealthy to pay even less taxes than now? Romney your man.

            Do you want to lose all semblance of women's health issues? The Romney's your man.

            You get my drift.

            • 1 vote
            Reply#37 - Thu May 31, 2012 7:58 AM EDT

            What Pat is saying...

            1. If you want a leader that will provide security and protection to America citizenry ...

            2. If you want a leader to protect our freedom of religion...

            3. If you want a leader that will allow our free enterprise system to function in order to provide jobs and financial security...

            4. If you want a leader that will provide honesty and values to the real issues...

            I think the people know exactly what you mean.

            • 4 votes
            #37.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:24 AM EDT
            Reply

            Iowa will be interesting. After all the media hoopla over the Republican straw vote and eventual win by Sanctorum, I am curious to see if the right wing jesus freaks are really the majority voters in the state. If they are, Obama doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell. Or Iowa.

              Reply#38 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:00 AM EDT

              Romney stated that one constitutional requirement for a presidential candidate should be a carreer of at least three years as a businessMAN. That would rule out Lincoln, Eisenhower, and Reagan, but include G. Bush and J. Carter.

              • 2 votes
              Reply#39 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:00 AM EDT

              Lincoln was a lawer from 1836 till he stoped in 1858. I don't agree with Romney's statment but get your facts right

                #39.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 10:28 AM EDT
                Reply

                These polls are using registered voters - take a look at polls using the more accurate macro of likely voters and Obama is losing in all three of these states.

                Obama can run but he can't hide from the truth no matter how much he lies, double-talks and plays fast and loose with half-truths regarding numbers relative to the economy.

                • 3 votes
                Reply#40 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:00 AM EDT

                So. what are our (the True U. S. Majority's' choices ?

                A far right leaning corporate advocate / yes man ? ?

                A far left leaning big government advocate self promoting politician ? ?

                No choice at all.

                How do you want to be beaten up ? ?

                Corporations or Government ? ?

                That's your choice.

                  Reply#41 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:01 AM EDT

                  When the Republicans lose the election, i bet money they try to start a revolution of some sort. They are like islamic extremists in the middle east, just spoiled brats. they already want to round up the gays and put them in a fence, next they will want to have the jews wears stars, women wont' be able to vote and blacks will be back in chains. "take america back"...200 years....

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#42 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:03 AM EDT

                  Yeah Jon - then they will gather all the poor people within big fenced areas in major metro areas and just start killing all of them...and then they will burn all of the old buildings and homes down...and then they will take all the old people and drop them in the ocean to die...and then they will put all the rich people into spaceships...and...and

                  Sounds pretty stupid huh? I sure hope you are not registered to vote because there are not many posts more idiotic than yours.

                  • 4 votes
                  #42.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:28 AM EDT
                  Reply

                  Jack Mack,,,I respect your well thought out position on how to get our economy going, but you must understand that if we were to cut the military budget to one quarter of it's size, as you suggested, we would have the un-employment number double,,,,So many different businesses depend on government contracts to keep going,,,so many businesses would have to close down,,,anything we do can not be drastic,,,it has to be done slowly and unfortunately the american public does not understand that it took many decades to get us into this mess and it will take a very long time to get out of it. But you are for the most part right,,,,after all, we have to start somewhere.

                  Have a great day everyone!

                  • 3 votes
                  Reply#43 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:07 AM EDT

                  So. what are our (the True U. S. Majority's') choices ?

                  A far right leaning consolidated power in government corporate advocate / yes man / self promoting politician - but newly seated as President of the U.S.A. ? ?

                  or:

                  A far left leaning big government + corporate advocate / yes man / self promoting politician - retaining the Presidency of the U.S.A. ? ?

                  No choice at all.

                  How do you want to be beaten up ? ?

                  Corporations + Government or Government + Corporations ? ?

                  That's your choice.

                    Reply#44 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:11 AM EDT

                    I think Obama is going to have to pull out the big guns on the campaign trail to win. U.S. Rep and DNC Chairwoman Debra Wasserman-Schultz and VP Joe Biden should do joint appearances everywhere.

                    The dynamic duo, the sultans of shyster, the pandering prevaricators will make the difference.

                    For a GOP win.

                      Reply#45 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:12 AM EDT

                      The election is a long way off, but I hope and pray that intelligent, informed voters come out in droves to counter those that really don't educate themselves on the issues but vote anyway.

                      Our country is spiraling out of control when it comes to the national debt. It needs to stop. Wasteful spending, unnecessary programs and pork need to be eliminated and we need to live within our means.

                      Increasing taxes on the so called rich won't bail us out of the mess we are in. We need someone who truly understands economics and can make the tough choices before they are made for us by being completely bankrupt.

                      I am a female and entirely too smart to believe for one second that the GOP is waging a war against women. What a joke. Give me opportunity over entitlement any day. The liberal answer is to send out a small stipend every month that keeps you dependent on them.

                      Many voting blocks that typically supported the democrats are beginning to see the light. The Catholics for one are realizing they have been dancing with the devil for too long and finally have been burned. The Jewish population pretty much the same, they have been trivialized by this administration.

                      Mitt Romney may not have been my first choice, however, I am certain he will do a better job than Mr. Obama has.

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#46 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:14 AM EDT

                      RSB I wish it were so that many voters will be informed but I am always reminded of what Churchill said once "the best argument against Democracy is a five minute conversation with the man on the street."

                      The liberals here at MSLSD.com provide supporting evidence of that.

                        #46.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:20 AM EDT

                        See, the problem is, I actually DO understand economics, unlike whoever is feeding you this load of cr*p. The problem is that, in this crisis, increased spending and low taxes ARE the ONLY remedy- however, when the economy is GOOD, then the opposite needs to occur, or else the bill never gets paid. THIS is what your beloved GOP never wants to hear, and WHY our economy is sh*t right now- none of you want to PAY for ANYTHING, EVER.

                        I don't buy a lot of the other far left wing nonsense, either, but Keynes got economics right, and supply side economics and "free trade" agreements are that which have destroyed our country- this would be fact. TRULY free enterprise is the American dream, but that's a nightmare at this point, thanks to large corporations' influence over government. Capitalism, on the other hand, has come to mean "usury"; no other way to slice that one. When we finally DO get out of this mess, it's time to beat the supply side mentality over the head with a shovel and bury it, for good, or else we will go out of business altogether, no matter who is in charge..

                        • 2 votes
                        #46.2 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:29 AM EDT

                        Rebel, You are correct. I remember watching I believe Leno's man on the street where they were asking voters who they would vote for in the 2008 election. After the various answers the people were shown photos of different candidates and most couldn't say who was in the picture. I'm not for taking the vote from any specific group based on gender, race or ethnicity, but I am for taking it away from stupid people. There are just too many of them. I live in the Socialist Republic of Maryland which is living proof of the incredible ignorance possessed by the voting population. They complain constantly about everything in the state and vote continually a straight democratic ticket. There is absolutely no balance here.

                        • 1 vote
                        #46.3 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:29 AM EDT

                        DB - Keynesian theory was a loser in the decade of the 30s and it is a loser now. The argument not enough stimulus was injected into the marketplace is fool's gold in both time periods.

                        The argument that using stimulus to hire public workers will inject consumer spending into the economy is correct but the numbers do not add up to make much of a difference - we are referring to the few who will get hired in the public against the many unemployed (19M now) in the private sector.

                        Keynesian theory is a sham, period. Reagan created 16M jobs during his two terms using the dreaded trickle-down, then renamed supply-side, economics. Clinton created 20M jobs - thanks to his being able to cut defense spending dramatically which helped balnce our budget (with an assist from a Republican Congress that forced Clinton to the center) because of Reagan's Cold War strategy and the added benefit of an unprecedented tech boom which created a huge number of private sector jobs.

                          #46.4 - Thu May 31, 2012 11:15 AM EDT
                          Reply

                          real pond

                          Ignorance And the ostrich syndrome is what comes to mind when your posts hit the vine.

                          Is Media matters for the 4ward thinking controlling your life? ans. most likely yes keep it up though we need comic relief here lol

                          At this point it is most likely that you are unable to rid yourself of your own ignorance, that's a pity. Therefore just trust that your future will be positively effected by the Sane people in America that really care and feel empathy for the desperate situation you are experiencing now.

                          Vote nobama

                          • 1 vote
                          Reply#47 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:17 AM EDT

                          Oh-ma-ma or Mittens is not a choice, it is an insult....

                            Reply#48 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:18 AM EDT

                            Mittens - you made a a very gay (as in happy smiling people?) funny Randall! LMAO!

                              #48.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:22 AM EDT
                              Reply

                              one will have to lie more then the other to win

                                Reply#49 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:20 AM EDT

                                If you look at the percentage of cellphones vs. landlines its about 2-to-1. Landline surveys have already been shown to skew conservative by as much as 8%. This throws off nearly every single poll now.

                                Having said that, I have no clue how anyone could support Romney. He would be GWB on steroids. Did everyone forget we tried that already?

                                • 2 votes
                                Reply#50 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:23 AM EDT

                                LOL....too bad they don't poll by telegraph, or Pony Express.....or just skip the nonsense and only call the nursing homes...Romney would be ahead by 20%%, in every state...

                                  #50.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:31 AM EDT
                                  Reply

                                  FYI MSNBC: NEVER publish state-by-state poll results without including the number of electoral votes for each state. If I remember the last detailed map I saw, the three states you're touting today (IA, CO, NV) -- where Romney is moving up -- have fewer than 20 electoral votes; the three states you reported on previously (FL, OH, VA) -- where Obama is doing better -- have more than 50 electoral votes. The difference matters!

                                  • 1 vote
                                  Reply#51 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:26 AM EDT

                                  The difference does matter and as America gets to know more about Mitt's mansions, dressage horses, Cayman Island and Swiss tax dodges and his complete lack of personality and depth the numbers will swing even more towards President Barack Obama-the man who got Osama saved GM and Chrysler and kept Michigan, Ohio and Northern Indiana from rusting away.

                                  • 3 votes
                                  #51.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:32 AM EDT

                                  Realist,

                                  It's the economy stupid. Voters won't care how much money Romney has. They didn't care that JFK and LBJ were the wealthiest presidents in the last sixty years. Do you know that John Kerry is worth the same as Romney, about $250 million? I don't think the liberals care that Kerry was "out of touch".

                                  • 1 vote
                                  #51.2 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:49 AM EDT

                                  If it's the economy, why is Romney running on the gay marriage platform? Oh, that's right, he's out of touch with middle America. I keep forgetting....

                                  • 1 vote
                                  #51.3 - Thu May 31, 2012 9:08 AM EDT

                                  When the economy sucks, the incumbent gets the blame. Nothing else matters. Just ask Bush Senior.

                                    #51.4 - Thu May 31, 2012 9:13 AM EDT
                                    Reply

                                    Gooooood morning America, this poll tells a lot. Obama loses by 10 points in november. most polls have a plus or minus 3 points but not with a racist. nobody likes to tell the truth about someone that might pull the the card out. goood bye Obama

                                    • 2 votes
                                    Reply#52 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:30 AM EDT

                                    If Willard becomes President, the neocons and chicken hawks will play him for a complete fool

                                    Which means that we will be in a war with Iran within months of his inauguration

                                    Which also means that DOD will be estatic, defense contractors will be filthy rich, and Israel will have a gigantic orgasm

                                    WOW

                                    • 1 vote
                                    Reply#53 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:31 AM EDT

                                    Yep and the over 1.5 million people who can't find a job will have hope again

                                    • 1 vote
                                    #53.1 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:55 AM EDT
                                    Reply

                                    It must be class warfare when someone notes that right wing billionaires and Wall Street miscreants are pouring hundreds of millions into Romney's campaign, but not when the poorest Americans are facing income tax ruination for cuts to billionaires, middle class paid entitlements are attacked, food, healthcare, and education are torn out of the safety net, and middle class wages are stagnant, but employing corporations are swimming in rising net profits due to worker productivity increases.

                                    5 will get 95 that the problem will increase. You can't make war on a middle class that doesn't exist any more. Those are the terms of surrender. Rank and file Republicans are not screw proof either.

                                    • 1 vote
                                    Reply#54 - Thu May 31, 2012 8:32 AM EDT
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