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Democrats enjoy a slight advantage over their Republican challengers in three key Senate races in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, according to three new NBC-Marist polls released Thursday.
Democrats lead by varying margins in a series of contests that could determine whether Republicans are able to achieve the net-gain of four seats they need to retake control of the Senate if President Barack Obama wins re-election; they need to pick up just three seats if the Democratic incumbent loses.
A separate poll shows a virtually tied race in a fourth state, Massachusetts, that the GOP is battling to hold in November.
Obama edges Romney in 3 key battleground states
In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads his Republican opponent, state Treasurer Josh Mandel, by a 14-point margin among registered voters. Fifty-one percent of registered voters said they would re-elect Brown if the election were held today, versus 37 percent who would choose Mandel; 12 percent were undecided.
In Virginia, former governor and Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine leads former Republican Sen. George Allen, 49 percent to 43 percent, among registered voters.
The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd reports on polls in three states – Florida, Virginia and Ohio where President Barack Obama has a slight lead.
And in Florida, 46 percent of registered voters prefer Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson to 42 percent who said they would vote for Republican Rep. Connie Mack.
PDFs: Ohio | Virginia | Florida
The Florida, Ohio, and Virginia polls were conducted by Marist for NBC News between May 17-20. Each sample of registered voters has a 3 percent margin of error.
Democrats are tasked with defending 23 seats in this year's elections, many of which were won in 2006 in swing or Republican-leaning states. The three states in the NBC-Marist polls are also battleground states in the presidential election, and are expected to be heavily contested by both the Obama and Mitt Romney campaigns.
First Thoughts: Economic pessimism returns
Republicans argue that the variety of states where Democrats must play defense gives the GOP a number of paths toward capturing the majority, but the GOP's once-heady prospects for winning the upper chamber have been tempered by recruiting flameouts and some degree of Democratic resurgence.
The tightening battle for control of the Senate has also raised the pressure on Republicans to defend each of the seats they currently possess. For that reason, there's arguably no more highly-scrutinized Senate race than the one in Massachusetts, where Republican Scott Brown is working to hold onto his seat in a deeply-Democratic state.
A Suffolk University poll released late Wednesday night showed Brown's battle against Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, a favorite candidate of liberal activists, locked in a virtual tie.
Forty-eight percent of likely voters would elect Brown, who first won office in a Jan. 2010 special election to fill the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy, to a full term. Forty-seven percent of Massachusetts voters said they would send Warren, a former Wall Street watchdog, to the Senate.
That race has been particularly hard-fought, involving most recently a controversy involving instances in Warren's career when she listed herself as having Native American heritage. But the Suffolk poll found that most voters in the Bay State didn't view the controversy as a significant story; likewise, Suffolk's numbers found that they didn't view a vote for Brown as akin to a vote for Wall Street.
The Suffolk poll, conducted between May 20-22, has a 4 percent margin of error.
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If I'm a Dem, I'm getting mighty nervous that the gap is closing so quickly already. If I was a guessing man, Virginia and Florida will go GOP in the next election by a slim margin. Ohio will stay Dem. These polls are with registered voters. The margin completely evaporates when conducted with likely voters. Again, nervous times for the Dems.
"gap is closing to quickly"...
tell us "ole guessing man"....why isn't the GOP ahead by 10 pts at this time?
seems the nervous ones are on the right.....supposedly they say Obama is the worst president in history....yet they are relying on "closing the gap"!
You just have to wonder if any of the folks that were polled ever listened to Sen. Nelson speak about a topic they knew something about?
NBC-Marist Poll: Dems in lead among illegal voters ...
The elderly and the the poor needs to get out there and vote Republican so they can do away with social security,food stamps and the unemployment checks so the wealthy can pay low taxes inherit billions with out paying any tax so they can hire a couple of foreigners to garden, drive them around, and do the housework for them and pay them a low wage that will provide jobs. I will never understand the ones that is collecting social security and on food stamps voting Republican.
I'm 61 and about to retire. And I haven't voted Republican in twenty years. I will vote for Romney because Obama is a dangerous person. Take my social security and Medicare away if you like. I'd sacrifice for my grandchildren. I don't vote based on who gives me the most handouts. I see the big picture.
Democrats are ready to screw the retired as well. By raising capital gains tax from 15% to 35% you are taking a lot of money away from retired people who understand how to save money.
Bobby, what percentage of Americans qualify for capital gains treatment in the tax code? A significant number of Americans today are trying to keep a roof over their head and some food on the table. Capital gains treatment is not even on their radar.
Seems you guys need a few lessons in investing. Anyone can take advantage of capital gains. Smart retirees are also taking advantage of capital gains.
The most common capital gains are realized from the sale of stocks, bonds, precious metals and property. So you are telling me retired people aren't smart enough to hold property and bonds? You don't think smart retired people hold stock and receive dividends?
Or are you going to try and tell me all retired people are stupid and didn't plan for retirement?
It promotes long term investment in companies. You don't qualify for capital gains unless you hold it for a certain period of time, which is usually longer than one year.
If capital gains are going to be taxed at normal rates, people will yank profits out even faster.
All middle class Americans can be in that boat, it just takes discipline.
For jobs we need manufacturing. Capital gains has nothing to do with job creation in the first place. It's a tax paid on investments. When people buy and sell shares of a company they are not purchased from a company. It's done on the open market where a buyer and a seller is needed to complete a transaction.
Taxes from capital gains are paid to the government and never reinvested in a company anyway. However if people make money they will be more likely to invest it somewhere else.
You can look at all the tax rates in history, what matters is how much is spent. Would you care to look at the rate of spending in this country historically?
Go ahead raise taxes, however raise them on everyone. You can't pick and choose where you want to take the money from.
Of course debt isn't related to welfare. Most of our debt comes from defense, SS and Medicare/Medicaid. Contrary to popular belief U.S. citizens are the holders of a majority of U.S. debt.
CBO just announced a recession in 2013 is all but certain. However if you listen to the democrats this is all you hear.
I've got to admit it's getting better (Better)
It's a little better all the time (It can't get no worse)
I have to admit it's getting better (better)
It's getting better
Since Obama's been mine
So, Bobby shouldn't the House of Representatives be using its Constitutional authority (Article 1, Section 7 which requires all budget bills to originate in the House) be doing something other than passing resolutions supporting the Pledge of Allegiance?
No, I think democrats should of passed real bills when they had a majority, instead of passing bills that the Supreme court needs to waste it's time with.
Oh yeah they could of set one of those budget thing-a-mabobbers as well.
Obama is a limp-noodle, weak-sauce president. Time for him to exit stage left pronto. We are creating a nation of whiny, teet-sucking, cry babies, and we need to inject a shot of work ethic into about 50% of the people on assistance. Some people are disadvantaged and need help, but even more are just lazy bastards that don't want to lift a finger. Time for a reality check. You are not a victim of circumstances, rather you are a victim of your own stupid and bad decisions.
Oh come on, recessions and depressions are nothing. Gay marriage, reminding you Bin Laden is dead and fabricating a war on women is WAY more important.
Fabricating a war on women? How about actually going to war against a nation that has done America no harm and borrowing to pay for it and costing 4,500 Americans their lives?
We all will be paying for the Bush/Cheney debacle for generations and you are concerned about a fabricated war of the sexes? Sheesh.
Easy to forget who voted for both wars isn't it?
We all know who is fabricating these bogus wars on women as well. Nice try though. Democrats are the ones that want nothing to do with the economy, because they failed to do anything about it when they had the chance.
I am not a supporter of either party. I can see through the smoke screens from both sides. Right now democrats will do anything to blame everyone but themselves.
You are talking about Iraq, and I never agreed with that war either.
An increasing number of voters are realizing that the Republican Party is controlled by the wacko Tea Party. The Republican candidates must bow and scrape to the Tea Party. Lots of people don't like this-a growing number. Also older voters are realizing that the Republican Party of their day does not exist anymore. It has been taken over by right-wing zealots and religious fanatics. So they are either not going to vote or are going to vote Democratic.
What a lot of you are not paying attention to is that the Senate gets to rewrite it's own rules at the beginning of each session. The Democrats chose not to, I think mostly because they had just lost the house and wouldn't have been able to accomplish anything anyway. But if either political party gets control of both houses at the same time, I expect a rewriting of the Senate Filibuster rule. At the very least making it harder and more visible to do, like forcing the senator to stand in the chamber and keep talking the way they used to. This is definitely true if the Republicans get control.
Polls is Florida showed Romney ahead two days ago, so I don't believe yours.
If the country wants to increase its' course to total failure they can vote for the man sure to give it to them: Obama.
People usually believe the facts that they agree with and pooh-pooh all others.
For God sake, it's an NBC sponsored poll. You fools.
For God's sake, you're right. Sure it's scientific and all, but even so, science doesn't matter if it doesn't align with what GOPers want to be true.
Yeah polls are very scientific. Tell me what was the hypothesis for this controlled experiment?
Oh Bobby, polls don't have hypotheses. The term 'scientific' is applied because of the highly accurate method of statistical error computation, not because it's supposed to be a model of the scientific method. It makes no sense whatsoever to ask for a 'controlled' experiment when it comes to polling.
But you knew that, you were just being a turd.
Instead of surmising a hypothetical bias, why don't you go read the questions and if you find a bias, post that. I'm so tired of hearing about bias without any real-world examples given.
Your idea of an unbiased question is probably what the rest of us would identify as charged rhetoric in favor of a GOP perspective.
This should be a great boost for gun sales...........
Nobody has called our house ever. I can say this I haven't heard anybody say they would vote for Obama.
Does your trailer have a LAN line?
zeedee, these polls are scientific, not anecdotal. This is good because if they were anecdotal, Ron Paul would be our next president. I need to hang out with different people.
zeedee
"havn't heard anyone say they would vote for Obama"...
guess there is no problem then....Romney should get 100%!
Uh. It's May. Why are we talking about this? OOOOH yeah, because there's nothing else in the world that deserves our precious attention more than the changing of a figurehead six months from now.
Keep up the faith, Jeez,
Maybe someday you'll finally be able to marry your sister.........
Jeez
since the divorce rate is already at 50%....seems like heterosexuals have found a way to "destroy marriage in America"!
Jeez
but you have no problem with the 50% of marriages acting out some fantasy that they are a real family....
real family means what to you?......50% of kids not being with a "real family"?
also think when most couples get married they make a pledge to God - until death do us part....think that is a pledge that it will "last forever"!
What about polygamy?
Seems polygamy was prelevant way before the discussion of gay/lesbian marriage.
Also think incest was prelevant way before the discussion of gay/lesbian marriages.
Your arguments are weak - but you already knew that!
btw - do you have any links that show a direct correlation between incest, polygamy and homosexuality?
lhow long ago do you think it was when people said "let some black man run for President and his chances will be slim to none"!
As for your constant reference to the dictionary....
How long ago was the description of those eligible to vote - "white men only"?
As for you never being able to see America accepting gay/lesbian marriages....here's a wake up call for you "jeez"...it's closer then you think!
Notice you don't want to share any links to the relationship of polygamy, incest and homosexuality.....is that because there aren't any?
It seems that mr grover, the gop, & the rushbo is counting heavily on the tea party hate mongering to win in november. They may win because there are soooo many people who base their entire lives on hatred. But i read that soooo many of these are dying off. That slowly the mr grover, the gop, & the rushbo are losing their base.
Mr grover, the gop, & the rushbo should talk science, the facts, evidence. They should talk reason. You will know when they have made their switch when they say that co2 made by human activity is driving climate change. But if they did that, missouri will have to remove the rushbo bust from their state heroes. The guy caused the joplin tornado damage a year ago with his propaganda to those aging, twisted, ditto head minds filled with hatred.
Good old NBC reporting what they hope will happen. Barry, pack your bags because you are going to loose by a landslide.
Mitt Romney? Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah.
"There are two things that are important in politics. The first one is money and I can't remember what the second one is."
Judging from your posts, I don't suppose you can.
Romney would NOT make a better president than the one we have.
The problem for OUR PRESIDENT is that he has been filibustered over and over and over again, historically unprecedented numbers of times by a small factious NON-REPRESENTATIVE group of tea-brained EXTREMISTS. And if we ever hope to have things go in a POSITIVE DIRECTION for the vast MAJORITY OF AMERICANS, it is critical that we change the composition of congress to one that is FAR MORE MODERATE than these nutjobs that came in, through the 2008 elections. We cannot have a government that works when we have Mitch McConnel openly proclaiming that the priority they have is to sabotage the LEADER IN CHIEF!
We need to get him and anyone who behaves like him out of office. Politicians who attack our president in vile ways need to be given THEIR pink slips in November. I am not talking about those who disagree and do not support everything the President puts out there. I am talking about traitors who openly proclaim they HATE the President MORE than they LOVE THIS COUNTRY. Those who used the debt ceiling for their own 15 seconds of fame and whose irresponsible conduct has led directly to HIGHER INTEREST RATES and a LOWER CREDIT RATING FOR AMERICA... send them packing!
Obama 2012 Elizabeth Warren 2012 Anybody EXCEPT Scott Walker 2012
EVEN WITH COMPANIES THAT FAILED, BAIN AND ROMNEY WALKED AWAY WITH HUGE PROFITS, UNLIKE STREAM-LINING IN GOVERNMENT TAKEOVERS OR GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS. BAIN LITERALLY KILLED THESE COMPANIES BECAUSE OF THE MONEY THEY TOOK FOR THEMSELVES! NEVERTHELESS, IN ROMNEY'S ENTITLEMENT WORLD, WHEN YOU EXPOSE HIS TRUE RECORD, IT IS "ATTACKING FREE ENTERPRISE." Romney closed down companies so Bain can make 800% profit on "investment," NOT job creation! His definition of "freedom" is all self-serving! CAPITALISM IS NOT LICENSE. Thus, some of it's titans have been put in jail; some are still there. Some were put away under the Bush administration. Remember Enron executives (one of them former W's friend). Remember also Arthur Andersen, Adelphia Communications, Computer Associates, Dynegy, Enron, Global Crossing, Halliburton, ImClone Systems, Qwest, Tyco, and WorldCom? Who could ignore the fact that so much money is always involved, and so much at stake? At WorldCom alone, about $7.1 billion has been misreported and lost as of August 8, 2002. Its former chief executive, Bernard Ebbers, left the company before this was discovered. He had an outstanding loan of $408 million from WorldCom. Romney’s firm, while posing as a private equity firm, is really operating as a loan shark outfit—put a company in an untenable situation, take out as much money as possible and then leave the company dry and broke—so money will be sticking out of Romney’s pockets! That is immoral and indefensible, and perhaps even criminal, especially since Bain usually leaves tax payers holding the bag with respect to workers unemployment benefits, health care benefits and pensions. Even in companies that failed, Romney and Bain walked away with huge profits, unlike what happens when government streamlines. This man has no sensitive moral conscience!
Bain didn't kill those companies. They may have picked the bones clean from their rotting carcasses, but it was bad management that killed them. And in some instances, Bain helped resuscitate companies that would have died.
Did they lop off some limbs and mercilessly cut away corrupted flesh? Yup. Sure did. And we need some of that in American government.
Speaking of battlegrounds...
Recently the Whitehouse made a big deal out of their meticulous tracking and precision "taking out" of an alleged bad guy in Yemen with a drone strike - probably controlled by a kid on a joystick at a military base 8000 miles away in Tampa, Florida.
Around the same time came news of some 4 dozen decapitated human beings - with their hands and feet also cut off - being dumped on a Mexican road just 75 miles south of McAllen, Texas.
(That's closer to that military base in Tampa than Orlando's Disneyworld is.)
Nobody knows if the victims were Mexicans or Americans. And the perpetrators - probably a gang of cokeheads - sauntered away untouched.
I'd like to suggest to the President of the United States and to the honorable members of Congress that they have their priorities mixed up. Get out of Iraq and Afghanistan now. Take care of business here where American lives are at risk.
perhaps the people are expecting their Senators to govern instead of filibuster
Slick Barry of the American Empire will crush The mormon Boy Wonder (aka...the used car salesman)
Who would be dumb enough to give any politician money ? ha ha ha ha ha ha
Hey, there is a bridge for sale in Brooklyn.
Its easy to show an edge when you poll more democrats than republicans. If they conducted this poll during the day, most republicans would be at work.....
They probably did this poll in downtown Detroit!!!
Political strategists jobs are to convince the citizens to vote against their own interests. Think George Bush 2004 and it will probably be the same for Obama 2012. Think for yourself, look around, is this economy improving? You don't need statistics from some wonks spreadsheet to see we are headed in the wrong direction, it's the same fiscal direction of George Bush. Vote out all Incumbants 2012.
What a stupid article?? Romney hasn't even started campaigning. He doesn't even have a V.P., yet??? That's like saying that a team won the first game of a seven game series so they will win that series?? C'mon ... how stupid. Who's the knucklehead that wrote this?
It is just NBC hoping to give this failing administration a little traction. It should have been named the NBC-Marxist poll.
I believe his oddles of money is what his welfare voters refer to as "Obama's Stash". Just look at what this clown has done in 3 short years. The word "Thick" can't even begin to describe his supporters.
Polling is all over the place, because polls are used to manipulate perception.
What you have to look for are polls that deal with "likely voters", not just registered voters. Also, when you read polling of likely voters, you have to figure in that 90% of the undecided likely voter, will break for the challenger. This fact is based on research back to JFK and forward. Undecided voters break for the challenger. So when you see 46 / 45 for Obama vs. Romney, you have to factor in about 8 percent of the undecided for the challenger, making it more like 46 / 53. See the difference?