NBC-Marist polls: Dems have slight edge in three key Senate races

 

Democrats enjoy a slight advantage over their Republican challengers in three key Senate races in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, according to three new NBC-Marist polls released Thursday.

Democrats lead by varying margins in a series of contests that could determine whether Republicans are able to achieve the net-gain of four seats they need to retake control of the Senate if President Barack Obama wins re-election; they need to pick up just three seats if the Democratic incumbent loses.


A separate poll shows a virtually tied race in a fourth state, Massachusetts, that the GOP is battling to hold in November.

Obama edges Romney in 3 key battleground states

In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads his Republican opponent, state Treasurer Josh Mandel, by a 14-point margin among registered voters. Fifty-one percent of registered voters said they would re-elect Brown if the election were held today, versus 37 percent who would choose Mandel; 12 percent were undecided.

In Virginia, former governor and Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine leads former Republican Sen. George Allen, 49 percent to 43 percent, among registered voters.

The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd reports on polls in three states – Florida, Virginia and Ohio where President Barack Obama has a slight lead.

And in Florida, 46 percent of registered voters prefer Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson to 42 percent who said they would vote for Republican Rep. Connie Mack.

PDFs: Ohio | Virginia | Florida

The Florida, Ohio, and Virginia polls were conducted by Marist for NBC News between May 17-20. Each sample of registered voters has a 3 percent margin of error.

Democrats are tasked with defending 23 seats in this year's elections, many of which were won in 2006 in swing or Republican-leaning states. The three states in the NBC-Marist polls are also battleground states in the presidential election, and are expected to be heavily contested by both the Obama and Mitt Romney campaigns.

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Republicans argue that the variety of states where Democrats must play defense gives the GOP a number of paths toward capturing the majority, but the GOP's once-heady prospects for winning the upper chamber have been tempered by recruiting flameouts and some degree of Democratic resurgence.

The tightening battle for control of the Senate has also raised the pressure on Republicans to defend each of the seats they currently possess. For that reason, there's arguably no more highly-scrutinized Senate race than the one in Massachusetts, where Republican Scott Brown is working to hold onto his seat in a deeply-Democratic state.

A Suffolk University poll released late Wednesday night showed Brown's battle against Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, a favorite candidate of liberal activists, locked in a virtual tie.

Forty-eight percent of likely voters would elect Brown, who first won office in a Jan. 2010 special election to fill the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy, to a full term. Forty-seven percent of Massachusetts voters said they would send Warren, a former Wall Street watchdog, to the Senate.

That race has been particularly hard-fought, involving most recently a controversy involving instances in Warren's career when she listed herself as having Native American heritage. But the Suffolk poll found that most voters in the Bay State didn't view the controversy as a significant story; likewise, Suffolk's numbers found that they didn't view a vote for Brown as akin to a vote for Wall Street.

The Suffolk poll, conducted between May 20-22, has a 4 percent margin of error.

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does anyone really believe any poll with NBC attached to it, please you all are not that nieve are you?

  • 1 vote
Reply#131 - Fri May 25, 2012 9:49 AM EDT

REUTERS (17 hrs. ago)

Show Kaine and Allen in a "dead heat".

Little Timmy Kaine was a horrible Governor in Virginia and so bad as DNC Chairman......they fired him!!!

  • 1 vote
Reply#132 - Fri May 25, 2012 9:54 AM EDT

A "poll conducted for NBC..." shows all Dems polling ahead of Republicans. What a shock! NBC polls: "Obama edges Romney...." another shock! This is analogous to David Axelrod and Chris Matthews conducting their own poll that included 999 registered Dems and 1 Independent.

    Reply#133 - Fri May 25, 2012 5:27 PM EDT

    MSNBC is a hack network for liberal democrats, of course their polls will always show dems ahead. Chuck Todd a supposed neutral commentator has a wife that is a major operative in the democratic party.

      Reply#134 - Fri May 25, 2012 5:48 PM EDT

      NBC manufacturing more "news" to keep the sheep oblivious to the upcoming slaughter.... too bad some sheep still fall for it, you would think they would have learned to ignore this garbage after the 2010 midterms.

      When you have to skew your polls by as much as 9% in favor of Democrats to give Obama a 3% "advantage" you are only highlighting your lack of integrity and your desperation.

      Polled voters by percentage:
      Florida
      Democrat 43
      Republican 35

      Virginia
      Democrat 31
      Republican 29

      Ohio
      Democrat 37
      Republican 28

      • 1 vote
      Reply#135 - Fri May 25, 2012 9:06 PM EDT

      Hey, um...I missed the first 45 times you copy/pasted this (and not sure where you got it, but anyways... ) could you post it another 45 times? I like how it shows the repub mentality, to continually repeat something false and people will believe you. So...keep it up, I enjoy the laughter it brings out!

        #135.1 - Sat May 26, 2012 8:56 PM EDT
        Reply

        We need to vote all Republicans out of office and replace them with Democrat Law Makers!! The deceit, lies and propaganda these clowns have been throwing on the American people needs to stop. Please check out this web site if you have time. Comments are welcome:

        www.sites.google.com/site/economictruthyouneedtoknow/

          Reply#136 - Mon May 28, 2012 9:41 AM EDT

          MUST BE A REPUBLICAN POLL! The truth is, the Dems have a COMMANDING LEAD over the Republican Senators! They must be trying to convince the very few left republicans to vote for them! IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN! NONE OF THE 99% American People pay any attention to your TV ads AGAINST our illustrious President Obama! Your Republican Congress along with John Bonehead has shown us JUST HOW CORRUPT the Republican Party is! TO HELL WITH THE 99%, WE'LL TAKE CARE OF OUR CORRUPT REPUBLICAN CORPORATES, the ones that "HAND-PICKED"!

            Reply#137 - Mon May 28, 2012 10:25 AM EDT
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