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2012: Beware of the polls of April

“President Obama leads Mitt Romney in Ohio 49% to 44%, and holds a slight lead in Virginia, 48% to 46%. The candidates are tied in Colorado, 47% to 47%, while Romney has the edge in Florida, 47% to 45%,” Political Wire writes of the latest Purple Poll, named for the “purple” states it is polling.

The Hill notes of the poll that “Romney has made inroads among independents, according to the latest poll from Purple Strategies.”

An important reminder: Micah Cohen at FiveThirtyEight: “[T]he election is still more than six months away, and in the past 10 presidential campaigns, the national polling leader in late April has won the election only half of the time.” Chart attached.

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus claimed on FOX, per GOP 12, that the GOP has better messengers to Latinos than Democrats. “Our messengers are better -- Marco Rubio, Luis Fortuno, Susana Martinez, Brian Sandoval. Messengers are better,” he boasted.

One of those guys is an official in a U.S. territory, not a state that votes for president and another doesn’t speak Spanish. That said, Democrats would love to have more high-profile Latinos to pick from that are governors and senators.

“Reports that Newt Gingrich will end his presidential campaign - but not for a week - only underscore the quixotic nature of his candidacy,” the Boston Globe’s Johnson writes, adding, “his notorious self-absorption, manifested last summer in a mid-campaign Mediterranean vacation that prompted a widescale staff defection, raised the specter of a candidacy rooted not so much in winning his party’s nomination but salving a desire to reaffirm his stature within GOP circles. The suspected endgame? To reap the attendant rewards through future speaking fees and book sales.”

GOP 12’s Heinze makes the case for what Gingrich accomplished, but also writes, “Gingrich reminds me of the inventor of the ‘chopstick fan’, which uses a fan to cool down the noodles on your chopstick so you don’t have to burn your tongue. I can’t decide if that’s brilliant or moronic.”

Political Wire notes this Molly Ball item about what Romney owes Gingrich, Santorum, and the rest: "By behaving childishly and running totally amateurish campaigns, they made Romney look good. Next to Santorum's inability to stay on message, Romney's gaffes looked minor. Next to Gingrich's petulant posturing, Romney looked like a grown-up. Next to both men's improvised, bare-bones efforts, Romney's flawed operation looked like the Cadillac of political campaigns. In losing in the most undignified manner possible, Gingrich made Romney shine. And for that, Romney owes Gingrich his gratitude."

Rick Perry finally got behind Romney.