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MONROE, LA – Newt Gingrich faces a significant hurdle in his strategy of winning the GOP presidential nomination at the party’s August convention, lengthening the already-long odds of him becoming the Republican nominee.
The former House speaker is already struggling to stay afloat financially; he finished behind Texas Rep. Ron Paul in last night’s Illinois primary, even though Paul barely campaigned in the state.
Nonetheless, Gingrich has vowed to press his candidacy all the way through the Republican National Convention this August in Tampa, Fla. His strategy hinges on the assumption that Romney will fail to win the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the nomination, prompting a contested convention in which Gingrich could emerge as conservatives’ consensus choice.
But an RNC rule stipulating that candidates seeking the nomination must have won a plurality of votes in at least five states could complicate Gingrich’s already far-fetched strategy. RNC rule No. 40 states:
Nominations(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
RNC Chairman Reince Preibus issued a stern warning to the candidates to that end this morning on the Daily Rundown.
“It's an important rule,” he said. “So when these candidates are adding up their delegates or when people out there have a particular issue that they would like to move at the convention, they had better make sure they at least have a plurality of five states to make these things happen.”
Gingrich, of course, has only won two primaries – first, South Carolina, and second, Georgia, the state he had represented in Congress. (Paul finds himself in a similar situation, having won delegates, but no caucuses or primaries.)
“Obviously we need to win some more states,” said a source close to the Gingrich campaign, acknowledging that they need to win at least three more states before the August convention. “I don’t think he [Gingrich] would be doing this if he didn’t think there was a road to winning.”
There is a caveat that could allow Gingrich to slip through. RNC press secretary Kirsten Kukowski told NBC News that a candidate may still be nominated at the convention if they are able to garner a plurality of five states on the floor. The only real road toward accomplishing that would involve capturing unbound delegates, who will be few and far between come August.
While this scenario remains possible, the likelihood of it actually happening seems slim.
If no GOP candidate reaches the 1,144 delegates needed to seal the nomination by the Tampa convention, it would open the possibility that all four remaining candidates would participate in a floor fight.
“The purpose of the primary season is to vet your candidate. The purpose of the convention is to pick your candidate,” the Gingrich source says. “The longer we stay in this race, the longer people are going to contrast and compare and then you get to the convention and then, we will have this big debate on who our nominee needs to be.”
But if Gingrich cannot win five states – or even if he does win just five – he would still face a perception problem come convention time. With 56 states and territories in play, it would be difficult for the winner of just a handful of those contests to make the case that he deserves the nomination.
“To change history, the primaries, in your favor is exceedingly difficult and almost unrealistic,” said Doug Heye, the former RNC communications director turned political consultant. “For a lot of folks, the perception that Gingrich cannot win is already there and you’ve seen it state after state as Gingrich has been left out of the conversation.”
RNC rule No. 40, Heye noted, basically codifies the notion that Gingrich no longer faces a viable path to the nomination.
“I fully expect that Speaker Gingrich will be in Tampa this summer but not as a viable candidate for President of the United States,” he said.
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Help me out with the "other stuff." How many wives did Jesus have? How many children? Why are black people black? etc
Why is Utah #50 of all states, per capita, in military volunteerism?
Sandtrich, good post.
Could it BE that many in Utah don't volunteer because they were at ground zero on our nuclear test programs and feel like they already GAVE?
What a shame. Newts my candidate but it doesnt look good.
whether one thinks he can do it or not, I must admit he has found another possible way in. He is a very smart individual who is looking to find any advantage he has, which is a characteristic of champions.
Newt, nobody likes you except gun-toting bigot white men. Women hate you. Less than 30% of your support is from women. Stay, please stay, in the race. For the rest: Romney's father was a Mexican, born in Chihuahua and Mitt is a Twit. Santorum is a sanctimonious, bewildered, God-made-me-do-it religious nut and in south Texas, Fried goeth before the Paul. Or in short it's far easier to get sun stroke than find anything sensible in Ron Paul's politics I think even Rand wouldn't vote for him.
Speaking of bigots, what does Mitts father being Mexican have to do with anything?
Absolutely nothing. But what does that matter? After you read most of the posts here and everywhere else, why should I worry about relevancy?
Ron Paul has a vision of utopia that is totally inaccessible due to the fact that people can not be trusted to do the right thing. This is why we need to have restrictive laws and regulations. I'm old enough to remember the rivers running with different colors from the paper companies, the totally sterile bodies of water that a person couldn't even walk near without gagging. Love canal, anyone? PCB's buried under playgrounds? A river so polluted it literally caught fire? Our national bird almost extinct? Has it gone too far at times? Yes. Should there be common sense moderation? Again, yes. Can we let corporations do as they see fit, believing that either they will 'do the right thing' or that we the people will be able to control them? LMAOROFL!
Newt Gingrich is the personification of old fashioned slimy politics. What he has done to people, including previous wives is despicable. He has been condemned by his own party and made a mockery of congress.
Mitt Romney. Former governor of Ma. No friend to the 2nd amendment, not exactly buddies to the average person. On the other hand, we have a semi functional state wide medical insurance that at least assures a reasonable level of care for virtually everyone. For me, the jury is still out.
Santorum is a holier then thou autocrat. I doubt if he has any real understanding of our constitution nor does he have any concept of why our founding fathers wrote it the way they did.
Barrack Obama. Walked into a situation he was not prepared for. Then again, no one person could be. We've had worse presidents. He is not responsible for the deficit. On the other hand he doesn't seem to have the cojones to bluntly tell people that the problems in this country are not going to go away without a major dose of fiscal conservatism and pain for most of us.
I gues what I'm writing is that I have no idea who will get my vote.
The result of what we are living now goes back 60 years with every President and Party responsible for getting us where we are today. We need term limits, no lobbyists, and a President with one 6 year term so he doesn't spend the first 4 years running for re-election and the second 4 years a lame duck. The voting public is to blame for "hiring" these stupid idiots who have all had a hand in getting us where we are today
Rfaber9--I agree with you on most of your post (Obama IS responsible for 1/4 of the deficit!)
It's an old cliche for me, but JUST ONCE I'd like to be able to vote wholeheartedly FOR a candidate, instead of always being forced to vote AGAINST the other, greater of two 'evils'.
all of you athiest and homos are in for a rude awakening. republicans are quiet right now and tired of the boring primary.
But, in November Obama is headed out of office no matter who the candidate may be.
and, there is nothing any of you losers can say or do to change that!
impressive post, full of mature insight. lol.
Hooray for the losers! Can you spell 1948? Speaking of losers AND Repubs.
show me an uptight str8 conservative male who hates gays and i'll show u 20 of the same cruising the gay chat rooms looking for sex, cheating on their wives or just your run of the mill pedophiles. I see it all the time.
Let's face it, Obama is going to win! It does look like Romney will get the nomination and he does not stand a chance against Obama. The main focus by Obama will be that Romney is part of the 1%. Heck, Romney looks nervous accepting a win. What will he do when he loses? He could could do several flips before the election and hope no one notices. Yeah Right!
Gingrich is the only one who can win against Obama!!!!
justsaying9999--You DO know that Obama TOO is part of the 1%? In the year he was campaigning for Pres, when Michelle had take a leave from HER job, too, to campagin, they STILL paid taxes on over a million dollars in income.
And I don't recall ANY OTHER candidate with a charge account at Tiffany's but Newt.
It must be hard for Newt to look in the mirror, and know in his heart of hearts, that nobody wants him. He is yesterday's news, but he just won't accept it.
on what basis? what has he done as a Catholic to be excommunicated?
BTW I'm not Catholic, but your statement is just the usual anti-Christian bigotry
Newt will try and spin this overwhelming denial as just a warm up for 2016. He's happy in his own little world, we all should be glad he won't have a chance to share his "vision"
My prediction? Romney versus Obama, Obama wins, not because people vote for him but because they will vote against an unacceptable Republican, no matter who gets the conservative nod.
Hit the nail on the head!!
It's true, it doesn't matter who wins the republican nominee, none of them are Presidential material, Obama, will get reelected by default of unfit republicans.
please please please let newt and sanitorium stay in the race. its absurdist theatre of the best kind. maybe rick can win the nomination and what joy it will bring to those of us who are hated by the right wingers. and u thought palin wasnt presidential material!!!
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012.
So-called right wingers don't have time to hate. Left wingers do enough of that for all of us. I may be conservative but I have voted for a democrat if he/she was the best person. Democrats don't have the balls to vote a split ticket. You are too busy spewing hate.
they hate gays, women, liberal thinkers, the educated, the poor, the uneducated, immigrants, both legal and illegal, anyone who is not a 1%er
Once again the Republican Party eats one of it's own. Romney's money has locked him in, plus "it is his turn" ala John Mccain. Gingrich is the only one of the candidates who can throw Obama under the bus. Once this nomination gets to the floor of the convention, Gingrich will prove he is the man to beat Obama.
The democrats are praying Romney wins because they know he will lose. It's a given sheeple. Wake up and smell the corrupt politicians doing their dirty work.
K L you are soooo right! I wonder when Americans will wake up and quit letting media pick our candidates....especially when they are buying the election!
The Democrats are PRAYING Romney wins? OH PLEASE. He has ALWAYS been seen as the main threat to Obama. That's why Santorum was robo calling Dems to go vote for HIM in one of the primaries, and they DID--NOT for NEWT.
And the Dems have focused most of their advertising against Romney.
Kathryne, I couldn't agree with you more. Sorry to say Romney is all hype, he was in 2008 and is now. Still, I stand firm in the fact that Newt is the only one to beat Obama. Anyone else will lose to Obama and that will lead us toward Socialism (@ Scorn). He is already on that path for our nation, has let up briefly to try and win the presidency, and then will step up his game toward the destruction of our nation. Especially if he continues to go against Israel, we will lose as a nation. All you who doubt my words, do a little research. Truth is not far behind.
To Chris, Vermontguy, Patty, Mike, Joseph and justsayin 99999: Thank you! Thank you for showing me that I am not alone in my support for Newt and that there are intelligent people out here. I suspect that there are many more of us in the grassroots and we will make ourselves heard before this is over. To the rest of you I say that the only important thing is to get rid of this racist socialist Obama who has deliberately brought America to the verge of collapse so her enemies can destroy her. He is a traitor who must be deposed and in the end only Newt can do that. If you care for your country and your children you will take a serious look at him and make your voices heard, if necessary at the convention in August.
need we remind you that gingrich was sent packing from congress for ethics violations?
And only one was proven! Yet we had a sitting President getting BJ's in the oval office, impeached him, and he still goes on and on like the energizer bunny. That is the kind of trash we elect.
Kathryne--and so because a POS DEM did something loathesome, that makes it OK for the PUB to do so too?
That IS the kind of trash YOU are proposing we elect.
And BTW--Newt was ALLOWED to resign, and KEEP his pension. THAT is the kind of trash we elect.
Bill Clinton might like a cigar plus a B.J. Though he new how to fix the economy, and restore America to greatness, while the republican party corn holes America, while they tell us that's what we need, a good old fashion corn hole'ing.
Nut job, get a life!!!
Thank you too Kathryne lee. My previous comment applies to you too and you are the only one who has said what I have been saying for months. Those devious low life liberals have been using reverse psychology for months now to push Newt to the outside. They come on like they are afraid of Romney because that is exactly who they want to take on. Democrats and liberals are the sneaky slime of the earth and you got it. Bravo Kathryne, bravo!
scorn...you are sooo right! I have been telling everyone I come in contact with that Newt is the best and smartest. I am really scared for America if we do not wake up and see where we are heading...As the saying goes...to H... in a handbasket!
Democrats and liberals, and independents out number republicans, if you don't like us, move to your country CHINA!!! Where you republicans all sold us out too!
Are you saying that Liberals are smarter! LOL!!
Too bad the media has chosen 'our' president AGAIN! Will we ever learn!
Republicans have a hard time catching on! LOL!
OK CTMick, a minor infraction hurled by the enemies he made while serving the country and standing in Bill Clinton's way. It pales by comparison to the years of balanced budgets Newt gave us along with the Contract with America. All the while Bill was in the Oral Office disgracing himself and dragging the country through hell teaching little children what a BJ was and how to play with cigars. People change and we should only look at how Newt's mistakes have made him better and who he is today. Even Bill Clinton himself had nice things to say about Newt just a few months ago and would probably be supporting him if he wasn't a Democrat. Given all that I will take Newt over any of the others any day, especially that racist elitist Obama.
Mitt is not an elitist? I eat Grits Y'all... give me a break! My wife drives a couple of Cadillacs!!
And have you checked out Rick's family history? He has more education than than the President but criticises the President for wanting the American people to be able to afford to pay for their kids education. Rick's parents are Educated as well.
And Newt as always is a Joke!
And those who try to portray Obama as having 'over come' the adversity of his mixed race and absentee parents conveniently 'omit' that his granny who raised him was Veep of a big bank in Honolulu. And that he went to private schools and eventually Harvard.
And Obama does NOT want American people to be able to afford to pay for their kids education, he wants them to get it for FREE. PS--does Santorum have a LAW DeGREE? Just curious as to how he has so much more education than the pres?
But, anyhoo, my parents scrimped and saved to pay for MY education, and my husbands' did too, and he also worked while getting his degree. Now people seem to think they should be able to spend every penny they get on TODAY's pleasures (My mom-in-law quit smoking, for instance, and put the money she would have spent on cigs, in an account to pay for her boys' schooling.) and count on someone ELSE footing the bill for their kids' school.
Gingrich fell off his surf board a month ago, guess he wants to try and swim to the beach all by himself, good luck Newt baby its your dime and your time keep swimming old man..
As long as Newt stays in the race, it kills any chance Santorum has to win. This is a good thing because only Romney can beat Obama.
Really! The GOP doesn't even want this guy!!
Theirs not a republcian running this time around who can beat Obama, the Senate knows this, that's why there going to turn their focus on keeping the senate and congress
Only Newt can beat Obama. The naysayers know that and have pushed him to the back of the class.
I think history, if we last, will note that one like Newt was what America really needed at a critical juncture, but like past civilizations the masses chose the path of ease, thinking they would save their heads, only to see it on the ground....death and destruction is on the horizon- Hail
CesarObama, we who are about to die salute you....Get some mental health help
Newt Gingrich, is a side show clown, not fit to run the country, let alone a book broker, like is counter part Sarah Palin, anything for a buck.
You really don't believe that do you? How could you not understand and appreciate what he has done in the past while in office and where he wants to take America moving forward. We need the congress and senate cleaned up and sent home to get real jobs just like us, we need domestic drilling, we need Obama care repealed, and we need Obama's new law (just signed) repealed that "whatever you have he can take and make the federal goverment owner without YOUR permission and nothing you can do about it. Are you sure Newt is a side show clown or does he know what is going on and intends to put a stop to it?
All 3 of these guys are easy targets. Mitt & Rick can't string one sentence together without stuttering and Newt is just a Joke. Mitt and his Fat Cats want to run this country.
God help us if Mitt gets in there, we will be back in the days of Bush and far worse off. I will take Obama any day over a Rich Man that wants to be President just because he feels like he is entitled to the office. Yes, he is a successful Business man but he didn't get there playing nice.
all of you anti-gingrich people want be laughing so loud after abama or romney wins the election.Romney is almost as bad as Obama.if Newt had the money that Romney had he would be leading now except for the gay votes.these canidates will tell you anything to get elected
Nobody wants these guys! Glad you know that the GOP has been blowing smoke up your A--! LOL!!
john wood-2296329
That's not what we are laughing at.
;-)
She is really scared for America, well she must have been Terrified under Bush. LOL!!
Get some of the stress out of your life, go on and VOTE FOR OBAMA!!!
Why would anyone vote for Obama after seeing the horror he has inflected on the country in just 3 short years. High unemployment, legal cases against the states in the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, obama care to the tune of 4 trillion when all is said and done, and has just signed a bill that he can take anything you have at his whim and you call that freedom?
Mitt Romney will not be able to take on Obama. Don't forget Obama/Romney care and Obama will parade every person that lost their home, pension, and bank account because of bain capital. Newt is determined to reduce goverment, drill domestic (and keep it here), and restore the states their rights which have been taken away by this administration.
Does "the colony on the moon" count???
Newts comment was to get the private secter involved and put out awards for those who could achieve the designated goal and get the federal goverment out of the picture. To many times only part of a slice of what a nominee says is reported by the media so they sound totally ignorant which is not fair by any means. All their statement should be reported by the media or nothing at all.
NASA is not the private sector.
I watched the whole speech, he clearly stated "by the end of his 2nd term" (insert eye roll here) there would be a colony on the moon which could apply for statehood.