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MONROE, LA – Newt Gingrich faces a significant hurdle in his strategy of winning the GOP presidential nomination at the party’s August convention, lengthening the already-long odds of him becoming the Republican nominee.
The former House speaker is already struggling to stay afloat financially; he finished behind Texas Rep. Ron Paul in last night’s Illinois primary, even though Paul barely campaigned in the state.
Nonetheless, Gingrich has vowed to press his candidacy all the way through the Republican National Convention this August in Tampa, Fla. His strategy hinges on the assumption that Romney will fail to win the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the nomination, prompting a contested convention in which Gingrich could emerge as conservatives’ consensus choice.
But an RNC rule stipulating that candidates seeking the nomination must have won a plurality of votes in at least five states could complicate Gingrich’s already far-fetched strategy. RNC rule No. 40 states:
Nominations(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
RNC Chairman Reince Preibus issued a stern warning to the candidates to that end this morning on the Daily Rundown.
“It's an important rule,” he said. “So when these candidates are adding up their delegates or when people out there have a particular issue that they would like to move at the convention, they had better make sure they at least have a plurality of five states to make these things happen.”
Gingrich, of course, has only won two primaries – first, South Carolina, and second, Georgia, the state he had represented in Congress. (Paul finds himself in a similar situation, having won delegates, but no caucuses or primaries.)
“Obviously we need to win some more states,” said a source close to the Gingrich campaign, acknowledging that they need to win at least three more states before the August convention. “I don’t think he [Gingrich] would be doing this if he didn’t think there was a road to winning.”
There is a caveat that could allow Gingrich to slip through. RNC press secretary Kirsten Kukowski told NBC News that a candidate may still be nominated at the convention if they are able to garner a plurality of five states on the floor. The only real road toward accomplishing that would involve capturing unbound delegates, who will be few and far between come August.
While this scenario remains possible, the likelihood of it actually happening seems slim.
If no GOP candidate reaches the 1,144 delegates needed to seal the nomination by the Tampa convention, it would open the possibility that all four remaining candidates would participate in a floor fight.
“The purpose of the primary season is to vet your candidate. The purpose of the convention is to pick your candidate,” the Gingrich source says. “The longer we stay in this race, the longer people are going to contrast and compare and then you get to the convention and then, we will have this big debate on who our nominee needs to be.”
But if Gingrich cannot win five states – or even if he does win just five – he would still face a perception problem come convention time. With 56 states and territories in play, it would be difficult for the winner of just a handful of those contests to make the case that he deserves the nomination.
“To change history, the primaries, in your favor is exceedingly difficult and almost unrealistic,” said Doug Heye, the former RNC communications director turned political consultant. “For a lot of folks, the perception that Gingrich cannot win is already there and you’ve seen it state after state as Gingrich has been left out of the conversation.”
RNC rule No. 40, Heye noted, basically codifies the notion that Gingrich no longer faces a viable path to the nomination.
“I fully expect that Speaker Gingrich will be in Tampa this summer but not as a viable candidate for President of the United States,” he said.
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56 states! come on!!!!!!! come on lets hear it!!!!!!!
the sooner they push this slime ball ego maniac out of the party the better chance the real gop canidate will have, just the thought of newt or his voice turns my stomach
I'M AN INDEPENDENT, & the republicans this year, with their demeaning of each other, are a perfect example of the wealthy that have nothing better to do. They need something to do with their feable minds. So what the hell, run for PRESIDENT!!!!!!!!!!!
many actually have made a career out of it, look at ron paul and romney, all they have did the last 10 years
You DO know that Ron Paul has been in the US CONGRESS for more than the last 10 years?
And as for Romney--to make a career of it implies that he benefits financially, and obviously, he could do a lot better in the private sector than in running for pres.
For all of you hypocrites who made comments about Newt's marriages and personal life, I bet you were also the ones making excuses and apologies for Bill Clinton while he was playing with cigars in the Oral Office. The only thing you can conclude about Newt from his marriages is that he believes in marriage and kept trying until he found his real true love and got it right. Shame on all of you. And you wonder why the next generation has such poor values and next to zero skills to inherit our country. Stop throwing your false righteous indignation around and do some real parenting.
not that I care one bit about newt's marriages, but you have to admit there is a delicious irony (hypocrisy?) in prominent politicians in the GOP who oppose gay marriage because it "threatens marriages and our family structure" while they have affairs, etc.
Since the dems haven't taken this "holier than thou" stance when it comes to such morality items, there is a criticizable difference between clinton's foibles and newts.
it's only an irony for those who think that perverted lifestyles should be equated with the institution of marriage and family
Larry... You might want to look at the facts and figures on how well traditional "marriage" is working out. What is the divorce rate? 50%-60%?The traditional marriage types are creating more broken homes and divorced single parents and troubled kids than any other force in our culture. For many people, straight and gay, traditional marriage is not and has not worked out. Thanks for your attention.
yawn. its ironic whether you want to admit it or not. lol. or maybe you just are incapable of seeing how amusing it is for people who want to control the behavior of others in ways that don't hurt them doing things that hurt others themselves (affairs). :)
I think carrying on affairs is perverted, as compared to a stable loving relationship of two same sex people.
of course, if YOU think that affairs are morally superior, go for it. lol. :)
scorn--nope, didn't like what Slick WILLIE was doing either. I just thought it was pretty hypocritical of Newt to be chastising Clinton for what he TOO was doing at the exact same time.
As for Newt being a 'believer in marriage who just kept trying until he got it right?
Bull. How do you explain him carrying on LONG term AFFAIRS while still being married?
And if you believe what you read, wife # three keeps a VERY tight leash on him.
Because if he will cheat on wife # 1 with Wife to be #2, and will cheat on wife # 2 with Wife to be #3, chances are he has his eye open looking for #4.
The way karl rove and george dumbya bush destroyed america, its a wonder if a republican ever gets elected again. Those two scumbags should be shot as traitors to America. They royally screwed America. Now we have to deal with first cousin to george dumbya bush, ....odumbo the kenyan. All related. Sickening.
Has anybody else noted that almost NOBODY is defending the Newtster? Not even the the rednecks that support him are posting. Oh, wait. Never mind. They don't believe in that new-fangled inter-net.
I support Gingrich and I will match my education and career achievements against yours-
Larry, then your post is an oxymoron.
Reince Preibus sounds very nazi-like. The GOPhers make fun of Obama's name for not sounding "American", yet they make Reince Preibus, sounds very nazi-like. WTF kind of name is Reince, nazi, right? And anyone that loves Raygun, has some problems anyway.
It is so amusing how none of these canadidates for the GOP will not make any firm commit on how they will balance the Federal Budget. What Obama should do now is cancel all the Federal Government Contracts that were put in place under the Bush Administration. Most of these contracts are 5 year term contracts with the option to extend them. If Obama was to CANCEL all but the necessary contracts that would save the American people trillions of dollars. Give them only 90 days to justify these contracts under the Bush Administration and if no longer vital to American interest of the people ----- CANCEL THOSE CONTRACTS.
Obama has had the ability to do so for 3 1/2 years.
The 2012 RNC Convention = cluster phuck
I'll give this to Newt - he has managed to elicit a majority of people on this vine who agree that they don't like him and wish to see him depart the GOP. Newt, GOP stands for Get Outta Politics.
Newt will never get the nomination. My suggestion is, grab whatever campaign money is left and go shopping at Tiffany's. He will make his wife happy at least, since voters did not trust him with $2.50 per gallon gas
It looks like the Gingrich campaign keeps lowering the bar of expectations. If he finishes 2nd in Louisiana they will claim a "win". Then they will consider a "victory" as finishing ahead of Paul. After that getting 5% will be "proof" that he is still relevant.
Hawk: what do you support your argument with? When has Newt ever been two faced as you say. Have you listened to the man, have you read his books? Not only is he brilliant, but he is the only one who can save this country. I've read a lot of anti-Newt comments, but no one seems to want to explain themselves. It is all just a lot of unsupported opinion without any substance. I get the feeling that this is a "Jaywalking" segment on Leno. People used to care and enlighten themselves, now they just vote blindly. America deserves another four years of the racist socialist we have in the White House.
militarily, newt scares me. I don't think putting him in charge of our weapons is a good idea...that's my primary objection to him.
As House Speaker, this wasn't an issue for me.
OK...I just can't let this one go.....it clearly says:
"56 states and territories"....i.e. 50 states + 6 territories??????
we just figured you were like obama and didnt know how many states there are
Face it Newt, you will never get the nomination not even Sanitarium will get it. Go back home and become a regular on The Real Housewives of Atlanta. Nene will love you for it. HAHAHAHA
As long as a Replubican wins Im happy! and if by chance Obama wins, I want to see the Republicans own the House and the Senate. Then Obama might as well take a (4) year vacation. Republicans will not pass anything. So as the old saying goes the buck stops here and We Republicans will show you how that works.
hes not passing anything now except bills to avoid the government from shutting down
works both ways.
certainly wont get that pipeline then
Fosz...writes:
Give them only 90 days to justify these contracts under the Bush Administration and if no longer vital to American interest of the people ----- CANCEL THOSE CONTRACTS
...and you would then say what to the tens of thousands of newly unemployed workers? I too would like to see line item expenditure justifications but blanket statements of this nature...especially done on a partisan basis, are irresponsible and symptomatic of the problems already plaguing our country...
Newt's toast. Santorum is gonna be Romney's VP. Think about it.
Think I will have 7 wives and get ready to fight Satan if that happens.
Too conservative for the times. Go back to Georgia. Your day in the sun is gone.
I live in AZ and vote by mail. I got my ballot about three weeks before the election. At the time, Rick Santorum had not been awarded the victory in IA and Gingrich had just won SC. Governor Brewer had also put her support behind Mitt Romney, so I voted for Newt Gingrich and have since regretted that choice because he has only won two states: SC and GA. If the Republican rule stands, that means he will only get to Tampa with those two states and various delegates.
Add to that, the mess of choosing delagates that actually will represent the particular candidate, be able to stay with the candidate they chose or not call the police on themselves will keep many of the candidates off the radar for weeks, if not months.
What a mess!
Illinois is well known for electing liars, cheats, & reelecting corrupt politicians. Chicago did it again last night. Republicans need someone who can talk from the heart, not afraid to say what will fix this country without worrying about offending anyone. They also need a candidate that can DEBATE Obama. Romney appears nervous & hyper all the time, not sure what to say & worrying about offending someone. Santorum appears passive, saying what someone wants to hear. Ginrich is the only one who knows what's going on & is the only one that can successfully challenge Obama in debates. ROOT FOR NEWT!!!
i agree that newt is (probably) their best debate choice against obama (assuming he doesn't blow up). Its funny given how many people have said that romney would "destroy" obama in a debate. its unlikely that a plastic person who constantly shoots himself in the foot would do well in a debate.
Chris--"Illinois is well known for electing liars, cheats & reelecting corrupt politicians."
Hmmm--would that include Obama? But seriously, NEWT? talk about corrupt, he got bumped out of Congress for being corrupt, and his personal life is FULL of corruption.
In October of last year I was trying to decide who to vote for. I studied all the candidates, listened to their debates and read their platform plans. I chose Newt Gingrich, because I believe he has what it takes to get our country back on track. Those of you who dis him have done none of the above or you would see that he has the knowledge, intelligence and integrity to lead our country to be great again. I appreciate his willingness to commit to the long haul and try to win. He knows he has the ability to be a really good President and so do I. My prayers will continue to be with Newt.
@ Scorn: I agree.
Define great.
Patty--INTEGRITY??? NEWT? How MANY vows does he have to break before he gets CALLED on a LACK of integrity?
JUST the fact that he 'led the charge' on impeaching Clinton for sleeping with a staffer, while he TOO was sleeping with a staffer is enough for ME to label him as a scumbag, not to mention the many charges Congress laid on him for improprieties.
How can ANYONE expect for him to value the Oath of Office when his life is LITTERED with previous oaths that he violated?
Change, I see change in him (@MOmaid), repentance and forgiveness, otherwise I could not endorse and support him. I see integrity and resolve to right the mess others have made of our nation.
Great (@WHT3) - America has in my lifetime been known as the greatest nation on earth. Look up history. We are not now - corrupted from within.
What do you have when you combine Trump's boys with Romney's boys? 5 military cowards.
Yup, know how tough talking Trump is, Romney, funny how the old men and their kids don't feel that patriotic fervor, except to just talk big with no action
Eric ron paul hasn't a chance in libertarian hell to become a president!
you never know, if the nation got nuked and the only survivors were all those malitia tea partiers livin in there bomb shelters, they would then elect him, hes there man
The eloquent way Santorum talks gives you confidence on the world scene.."makes me wann vomit"