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If there's been one familiar refrain among Republicans during this presidential primary, it's been that the hard-fought battle between Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and other contenders hasn't hurt the party – arguably, it's even strengthened it.
"Don't always assume that a primary fight is a bad thing," Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said Mar. 7 on CNN. "In fact, I think it's the opposite. I think it's going to be great for our party."
And frequently, as a point of reference, Republicans point to the long – and, at times, bitter – intra-party battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 as evidence that an extended race to the nomination isn’t necessarily a hindrance to winning the White House.
But there are important differences between the two cycles. Some of them might serve as a warning sign for the GOP, such as less money and a more damaged brand. And some might give the party encouragement, like more enthusiasm among Republicans.
Of course, an important caveat: In some ways, it’s difficult to compare 2008 (a race without an incumbent and with two history-making primary candidates) with 2012 (when there’s a sitting president in the Oval Office).
Bank accounts
At this point in the Democratic primary in 2008, Obama and Clinton had each heavily outraised Republicans’ fundraising haul through the first couple of months of 2012.
In February of 2008, just as the Democratic campaign had appeared to shift into a two-person race, the Obama campaign raised $55 million for the month, and had $39 million in the bank going into March. Clinton raised $35 million over the same time period, and had $29 million in cash on hand. (It’s worth noting, though, that much of Clinton’s money was reserved for the general election, and she couldn’t use in the primary season.)
Compare that to the money raised by Santorum and Romney over February, according to their own campaigns’ estimates (official numbers have not yet been filed with the Federal Election Commission). Romney raised $11.5 million in February and Santorum raised about $9 million. Romney had just $7.3 million in the bank at the end of the month, though, suggesting that his campaign is spending at a rate that could threaten to bleed him dry by November, especially if the primary continues for a while.
A discrepancy would suggest some diminished enthusiasm for the Republican candidates this cycle, at least at first glance.
But there are some important things to keep in mind: First, overall fundraising is down in 2012 versus 2008, in part due to the impact of a deep recession that onset after the 2008 primary.
More Republican money has also flowed to super PACs that support the various GOP candidates. These groups didn’t exist in the last Democratic primary, and one Romney super PAC alone, Restore Our Future, has already spent over $30 million this primary season.
The brand
Perhaps the most illuminating figures on the impact of the Republican primary campaign comes from a series of national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls and the exit polling conducted of voters in key battleground state primaries.
By March of 2008, both Obama and Clinton enjoyed net-positive favorability ratings among the public at large (Obama: 51 positive, 28 negative; Clinton: 45 positive, 43 negative according to the March 2008 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll).
Romney and Santorum haven’t fared as well with the general public, according to this month’s numbers, also taken from the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Romney has a 28 percent positive rating among U.S. adults, and a 39 percent negative rating. Santorum has a 26 percent positive rating, and a 39 percent negative rating. They each perform much better with Republican primary voters.
And in terms of the impact on each party’s brand, the Democratic Party had a 45 percent positive rating among registered voters in March of 2008, and a 35 percent negative rating. Four years later, the Republican Party has a 32 percent positive rating, and a 43 percent negative rating.
But the GOP’s ratings represent a recovery of sorts from the party’s depths in mid-2010, when the August NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from that year had the Republican Party with just a 24 percent positive rating, and a 46 percent negative rating.
Republicans are also still dealing with the fallout from an unpopular two-term president in George W. Bush, who preceded Obama. The wars Bush had started are still winding down, and Obama still warns of a return to the policies of the years that preceded him, attacking Bush by implication.
The Bush years also left Republicans with a more fractious coalition with emerging fault lines of social issues and foreign and economic policy. Given those divisions, it might be tougher for any of these candidates to capture a broader swath of the electorate.
Enthusiasm, curbed
The figures from both primaries suggest that Democrats were happier with their choice of candidates than Republicans have been this cycle.
Fifty-seven percent of Republicans who voted in the Mar. 6 Ohio primary said in exit polls that they would be satisfied with Romney as the eventual nominee.
By comparison, 73 percent of Democrats who voted in the Ohio primary four years ago said they would be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination, and 66 percent of Democrats said the same of Obama that same cycle.
Nationally, 45 percent of Republican primary voters said in the March NBC/WSJ poll that they would support Romney with enthusiasm, and 42 percent said they would support Santorum with enthusiasm.
Four years ago, in the same national poll, 60 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Clinton with enthusiasm, and 52 percent expressed enthusiastic support for Obama.
But in 2008, Democrats weren’t being measured against an incumbent president like Republicans are this cycle. The differences between the candidates were also more stylistic in 2008 than ideological, especially compared to the 2012 race in which Republicans do battle over the extent of their conservatism.
But the Democratic primary four years ago also featured two political heavyweights in Obama and Clinton, each of whom were poised to make history simply by virtue of their nomination. Obama would become the first African-American presidential nominee, and later, the nation’s first black president. Clinton would have been the first woman to top a ticket, and the first woman president if she were elected.
And Republicans can take solace in the fact that Obama is now their greatest unifier. While there might not be tremendous enthusiasm for either of the two major remaining Republican candidates, there’s a great deal of interest within the GOP about beating Obama.
A mid-February Gallup poll found that Republicans, by an 8-point margin, were more likely to say that they were enthusiastic about voting this fall compared to Democrats. And among certain key portions of Obama’s 2008 coalition, especially younger and nonwhite voters, enthusiasm was down.
But a mid-March poll, also by Gallup, found that enthusiasm for Romney and Santorum within the GOP is down from 2008; Republicans are motivated this time by voting against Obama.
And the numbers in the January NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll suggest that while Santorum and Romney might not generate tremendous enthusiasm, they’re at least acceptable. Seventy-five percent of Republican primary voters said they would be “comfortable” with Romney as the nominee, and 65 percent said the same for Santorum.
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Santorum's negatives have really jumped since January. Guess people are getting to know him and really not liking what they're learning about the guy. Still not nearly as unpopular as Newt Gingrich, but give it time.
The entire GOP/ Republican/ Team Party presidential campaign has been has been one person getting the limelight for a short while then crashing. Santorums time is up, who'd going to take his place?
ABO,,2012!
Maybe this is for the best. The Republicans crash and burn in 2012, maybe they start to figure out that embracing the Tea Party extremists is not the way to win national elections. There is a reason all the decent, moderate conservative candidates refused to run. They had decent people like Charlie Crist and they threw him away.
It might be time for the GOP to start planning for 2016.
Thunder,
Dito
Hillary was far more qualified than Obama. Obama was the wrong choice. What a disaster he has been.
I actually supported Hillary, but she didn't have much political experience. She was a U.S. Senator from 2000, and that's it. Unless you want to count First Lady among her qualifications? Perhaps, in which case maybe we're looking at Michelle Obama in the near future.
Also, President Obama has saved the country. You can certainly disagree with his policies, but he is not anything resembling a disaster.
I see the liberals are out in full force. Obama has saved this country? You are kidding me right? You are the type of person who is ruining our country to vote the disaterous yes I said disasterous pres. back in. Everything he has done ( well, I will give him Bin) is killing our economy. If he gets back in we will be Greece for sure. Oh yea I forgot Liberals love Greece. I have a great idea why don't you take all your friends to Greece and leave My United States alone I happen to love this Country!!!!!
It does appear pretty grim. The Republican Party has only clawed its way up to a 32 percent positive rating from its 24 percent positive rating in 2010 ... when the Republicans took 63 House seats and 5 Senate seats from the Democrats.
The political landscape would be a lot less frenzied if the liberal media was not so terribly concerned that the Republicans have not yet chosen a candidate.
Another brilliantly deranged view by MSNBC !
Viners watch the Presidents video on youtube its AWESOME!!
How did this article and subject matter turn to gasoline?? No REAL expert will say we can drill to $2.50 gas because it is fantasy. Fuel is being exported to India and China because they are willing to pay more. The oil companies have leases yet undrilled that will last for years. The oil companies have capped wells to manipulate the supply thus the price. Why pump more? The price will just go down.
Do these 2 things and the price will come down.
Put a time limit on leases. Drill it and pump it or lose it. No fuel to be exported as long as we are importing it.
twas anyone but bush in 2008. now its anyone but obama 2012. karmas a bitch! hahahaha debt man walkin!
Sadly,.. that's all the teapublicans have to unite them.. Beating Obama.
They have no vision, no ideas, no solutions... But,.. the "moon colony" thing was interesting..
""But a mid-March poll, also by Gallup, found that enthusiasm for Romney and Santorum within the GOP is down from 2008; Republicans are motivated this time by voting against Obama.""
Oh yes we know Obama has a vision- to kill our country!!!
oBAMA/holder lies and people still die!! No oBAMa 2012!
Bill Clinton reversed Reagan's course, raising taxes on the wealthy, and lowering them for the working and middle classes. This produced the longest sustained economic expansion in American history. Importantly, it also produced budgetary surpluses allowing the government to begin paying down the crippling debt begun under Reagan. In 2000, Clinton's last year, the surplus amounted to $236 billion. The forecast ten year surplus stood at $5.6 trillion. It was the last black ink America would see for decades, perhaps forever.!!!!!!
There is only one thing the Republican Party is going to do!!!! Take!! Take!! Take!! Take!! Take!! Take!!
That's take from the needy and give to the rich!! who don't pay there fair share!!!!
The first signs of impending trouble are the exploding budget deficits themselves. They began, of course, under the parlous economic stewardship of Ronald Reagan. Reagan cut the marginal tax rate on the wealthiest of Americans from 70% to 38%. He promised it would spur an orgy of investment and rocket the economy to new levels of production and prosperity. Instead, his supply side economics did the exact opposite. It produced the deepest recession since the Great Depression.
No. The mr grover, gop, & rushbo primary is a truly different primary. Tons & tons of superpac money. But the candidates are just shadow puppets. They are following a script written by their superpac masters. They are not real people. If elected, they will be like the bushman.
Biased media effectively removed the only threat against the Washington Establishment, the status quo...Ron Paul. Our choice of President must come from either faction of the status quo, Democrat or Republican...but make no bones about it, no matter who it is, he will be a staunch supporter of our corrupt Washington Establishment, and you can count on more of the same or worse.
well, no this isnt like 2008.
the fight for the top spot is worse than it was.....the gop knows whoever wins the nomination is likely to win the general.
in 2008 hillary was hoping things like bill ayers, rev. wright, and saul alinski would keep obama out of the top spot in iowa....but, it didnt turn out that way
obama took hillary and joe biden in the top spots after potus.
we have genuine hope for the future....if the election were held today, romney or santorum would win against obama...but the election is some 240 days away. by that time obama will try to point out his successes, obamacare and suing states for enforcing immigration does not help.
people are frightened at the thought of 4 more years of obama rule....i have never seen anything like it, and people will not forget obamas promises from the first campaign.
dont bite me head off....i'm not racist....liberals have to understand what is going on in america these days and face the music. the average citizens life is not better since obama came to power...this is what voters are feeling.
These polls change daily. I'd wait till fall to gloat. Today Obama/Romney are tied at 46%. That's an upward trend for the President after falling on gas prices. Last week Obama was up by 10. Obama 49% Santorum 43%. Sorry
who's gloating ?
...look, obamas numbers have been going south for three months straight...you dont have to try to spin me. what is interesting is for the past four weeks romney has been the only gop candidate to beat obama in this "if the election were held today" poll ...and just this week santorum is beating obama as well. so it doesnt matter what gop candidate it is...they both poll better than obama.
I think maybe you should check his numbers keck. Mine are factual. Yours are wishful thinking. 46 to 46. And look for Romney to be behind again next week. 49 to 43 Obama over Santorum fact.
48 romney
43 obama
(this week...cnn, gallup, rassmussen) sorry, i can back my numbers. maybe you can go to these sites and have a look for yourself.
No you can't! LOL Mine are Rasmussen 3/16/20012!
Like these numbers?
Romney vs. President Obama
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
funny.
youre right, you know.....you have nothing to worry about, obama will be re-elected no problem.
you are right....and i am wrong
Sailcat, hadn't checked those but I do like em.
As usual, Keck. You should be used to it by now, though.
yep, obama is going to win.
The polls say it, the hilariously poor GOP wannabe candidates can't prevent it, and the voter groups that the GOP have alienated are going to ensure it.
You. He will be elected. Read 'em and weep.
Obama in November. There is no other choice.
obama is sure to win.
...he is the best president we have ever seen.
if he loses that means they stole the election....then we must go to the streets.
if you vote against obama...then you must be a communist, or anti-american, or a racist. there is no other way
No reason to whine about it, Keck. Just accept it. You'll be happier.
obama will win.
Actually, every poll has Obama beating any of the GOP candidates.
He also leads Romney in the key swing states such as Florida and Ohio. Did you not expect people to read the polls? Some of us are actual political junkies.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/core_four_states/election_2012_the_core_four_states
None of the available data supports the position that Obama would lose if the election were today. This is especially telling since the incumbent hasn't even started to fight back in any meaningful way.
I have to comment on the hundreds of thousands of jobs from keystone pipeline someone mentioned that is false even the company building it only projects 10,000 jobs other reports only list it at 4-6,000 jobs so NO it wont create that many jobs, and in the midwest it would actually increase gas prices what we need is some new oil refinieries, now if the company building the pipeline changes its route so it's not going over an aquifer and national park land I'll support it, until then HELL NO. ALL oil pipelines leak at least a little it's inevitable so yeah having one go over an aquifier is a bad bad idea. NAME ONE good idea other than the moon base idea that republicans have come up with
Why is the moon base such a good idea? I like technological feats as well as the next person, but the moon base reminds me of all the people I see who have big boats on trailers in their yards, that they thought were an exciting idea when they bought them, but...
the last i heard the pipeline would create 20k jobs over a two year period.
.
but, if obama said 'yes' on the pipeline....maybe the speculators in the markets would not drive the price of oil as much as they are. obama does not even have to start on the pipeline immediately....he could say 'in two years' and the price of oil would go down.
but he hasnt...and i doubt he will, after all he likes high gas prices...he has said it many times.
Have read they revised that number down to 4 to 5K.
Last I heard right wingers get their information from rush limbaugh.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
If right winger can ever join the real world it would be fantastic for America.
Until then we'll get GOP candidates like santorum who thinks higher education are "elitists"
REALLY?
We all know the GOP hates eduaction...But to come out and say you hate education like santorum did????
My gawd right wingers must be stopped at all costs.
"at all costs"
...kill them ?
It's okay to have an extended debate among contenders for the party nomination; really? Would that mean you have found a way to bring the game to the table in competing with the Democratic party? As much as I would love to see Obama gone and vote in a Republican candidate for office, I must admit that unless something happens fast with the Republican party (i.e. who's going to be Mitt Romney's running mate) then this party will continue to flop just like it did 4 years ago.
Get Newt and Santorum out of this race and tell them to run again in 8 years. Place Romney on the ticket with Paul as his running mate. You want to solve some real problems, let someone like Romney who has a chance to beat Obama have the ticket. You want to solve more problems, have Paul watch over the Senate and push his and Romney's objectives to bring peace and prosperity back to our economy. Paul can't beat Obama on his own but with Romney's approach to beat Obama, these two could be an astounding powerhouse.
I still vote for Obama-Biden Presidential Team 2012.
Why .... ??
Are you enjoying our out of control record unstoppable rising crushing credit down grading debt .... ??
hmm...must be suffering from stockholm syndrome.
Hey keck ....
Check your home page some week ....
Yea , there's allot of syndromes going around for about 3 years now ....
Wait until the Republicans start to show the real numbers on our economy ....
Standard of living is down when you look at inflation now .... "LOL"
Gonna be good ....
I agree ....
That's exactly how much Obama has really helped us all ....
The amount of money allocated towards war determines how much is left in the budget for domestic needs. Bush started wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama expanded the war in Afghanistan and now wants to attack Iran (after re-election). Looking at Obama's w2010 and 2011 budgets, "national defense" makes up at least 50% of the budget. Can someone care to explain how the parties are different?
Basically, in the end it will be NE1>0
This election will be a case of being one for Democrats to loose rather than the Republicans to win. The wheels have completely fallen off the whole primary process for Repubs. It's a joke really. They couldn't find a single qualified person to stand?
They don't want the most viable candidate. Romney!
They are still waiting for last call to see who the best looking whore will be. Instead of uniting now and establishing a plan of attack, they are still walking around with blue balls, because they think some princess will walk into the room at the last minute and change everything.
The GOP is more divided than they even realize. They are imploding and giving the election away. Their goal is 'anyone but obama' but they need to get past their present thinking of 'anyone but romney'.
Obama is a retard for a president who wants to turn America into the next Mexico by granting law breaking border jumpers amnesty, free college and welfare... along with that the plan to get rid of us who are legal citizens or atleast drive us off is by consistently violating our rights and freedoms whenever he feels like it.
For instance how he passed a bill that gives the military power to arrest and detain indefinitely without trial any US citizen on US soil without a warrant or any real evidence of wrongdoing just off suspicion of terrorism or someone saying that they suspect said person of terrorism... or then there's how him and his wife are trying to control what we eat which is nobody's business but our own...
Is he who you really want running our once great country/nation for another 4 years????? I'm sorry but I enjoy my rights, my freedoms... I enjoy America being America and not the new Mexico and I definitely don't care for the TSA (Total Sex Assault) agency or for drones with the ability to see through walls and such patrolling our skies and invading my privacy.
Pretty soon we will be living in a Gattaca type lifestyle and eating dirt and the government watching everything we do if these fools and all the paranoid sheeple who jump at their own shadow have their way.
If Obama stays in office or even if any of the republican morons gets into office we may as well kiss our constitution and bill of rights goodbye along with the once great country/nation of America which will become Americo. Women may as well kiss their rights and equality goodbye too considering the anti-abortionists will control whomever is president with their deep pockets.... I'm sorry but that is not what I want to see happen to my once great homeland and birthplace, the place where a majority of my ancestors were driven off (I'm 25% Cherokee Indian).
What America needs is another revolution or civil war to set it back on track... We the people, the citizens, the legal citizens need to take our country back from the tyrants, from the greedy, from the selfish and self centered ingrates that we currently have in charge and running things... We need to bring our jobs back from overseas and ban corporations and companies from outsourcing jobs unless they are providing an equal amount of jobs here in America.
I'm sadly but slowly becoming ashamed to even call myself an American anymore because it's beginning to mean nothing anymore.. Sigh it's sad when you can't be proud of the country you love and want to protect. Sorry if this offends any brainwashed sheeple or political butt kissers but I'm just exercising the one right, the one freedom I have left that hasn't been fully taken away as of yet. Shhh don't give the government or Obama any ideas, next thing you know even just stating your opinion will get you locked up indefinitely being that as I mentioned above Obama granted the military the power to do so.
Peace that's my two cents for now
Sorry you feel that way ....
Obama has many Americans disgusted with our government in particular ....
"I'm sadly but slowly becoming ashamed to even call myself an American anymore..."
I think this sentence represents the heart of your blithering rant. You obviously lack the spine and the love of your country to get off your behind and try to make a difference. I am confident you are not engaged in the system and you simply expect it will accommodate your personal views, whatever they may be. Kind of like political welfare, you know. Instead of working toward a solution, you shamelessly blame everyone else for what you perceive are the nation's problems and then wash your hands of the subject. It is exactly the sort of response I would expect of a coward, and you have not disappointed me.
I can hardly wait until you announce the country that best reflects your weak-kneed principles because I am betting you are going with France. They would probably not want you, but I expect you are too lazy to learn the language and move there, anyway. Really, you would rather post here and whine, right?
What a waste of space.
Now that was some fantastic whining , Sailcat-2064101 ....
Rational arguments often baffle the semi-literate and unwashed elements of society, Ben. I am not surprised you feel that way.
"...if any of the republican morons gets into office we may as well kiss our constitution and bill of rights goodbye..."
It looks like he doesn't have any faith in the losers of the GOP, Ben, but no else does, either, right?
Are you surprised at Obama's record high debt , that he seems to not be able to even slow down ....
Your memory is slipping you ....
Didn't he say something like , he was going to cut our deficit in halve , in the first four years .... "LOL"
Oh well ....
What else , Gitmo maybe ....
Oh, Ben. Your weak arguments are not persuading the voters, and that is why President Obama is continuing to lead your incompetent losers of the Republican Party, even after three or four months of non-stop campaigning for the hilarious GOP primary. Weak minded people like you are the reason the once-mighty GOP is circling the drain.
Sweet way of injecting some small time name calling there ....
How cute ....
Do you play with dolls too ....
Oh, I think the names are right on the numbers, Ben. There are few people on this site other than yourself who show up just to post pointless, asinine comments. But what are you going to do given your painful lack of intellectual horsepower, right?
And speaking of dolls, you may want to place your order for your President Obama action figure before he is reelected. They'll be selling like hotcakes after he wins in November, you know.
Fail.
"LOL" ....
See , I was right about you ....
And I about you.
What .... ??
That I may think you play with dolls .... ??
You're not very bright, are you, Ben?
Sailcat,
Gee you could have said that about Moochelle Obama too when she said" For the FIRST TIME in my adult life I am proud of my country."...and now she's the first lady...what a bunch of morons with double standards you are.