
Win Mcnamee / Getty Images
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney waits to speak while being introduced during a campaign stop at the Whistle Stop cafe March 12, 2012 in Mobile, Alabama.
Why Romney could lose tonight… And why he could win… Polls close in Alabama and Mississippi at 8:00 pm ET, and they close at 2:00 am ET for Hawaii’s caucuses… The final ad-spending numbers for tonight’s contests: Romney and allies outspent Gingrich 3-to-1 and Santorum 4-to-1… On the NYT/CBS poll and the Chewbacca Defense… Speeding up the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan?... And Obama and Cameron to take in NCAA tournament hoops game from Dayton, OH at 6:30 pm ET.
*** Why Romney could lose: With polling all over the place in Alabama and Mississippi -- two states not usually associated with well-known polls -- we’re not sure anyone has a good idea how tonight’s races will turn out. But we’re on firmer ground to explain why Mitt Romney could lose in these southern states, as well as why he could win. Let’s start with the former: Beyond ideology, Romney could lose due simply to the demographics. Averaging the nine states where Romney WON (and where exit polls were available), 51% of GOP primary voters were college grads, 31% made more than $100,000 a year, and 35% were born-again or evangelical Christians. But the averages for the states where Romney LOST is 48% college grads, 28% making more than $100,000, and 68% evangelical Christians. So where do Alabama and Mississippi fit in here? Well, they look more like the states where he has lost. In Alabama in ‘08, per the exit polls, just 42% of GOP primary voters said they were college grads, 18% made more than $100,000, and 77% were evangelical Christians. In Mississippi, the numbers were similar: 38% college grads, 19% making more than $100,000, and 69% evangelical Christians. Focus on the evangelical number; that could the best explainer.
The Daily Rundown's Chuck Todd previews the Alabama and Mississippi primaries.
*** And why he could win: Yet despite those ideological and demographic challenges for Romney, there also are three reasons why he could win. Reason #1: Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum could split up the anti-Romney vote. Note that Gingrich and Santorum BOTH haven't received 30% in any one contest so far, but the polling out there suggests that they could possibly hit those percentages tonight. Who would have figured that Romney’s best friend in this race right now would be Newt Gingrich? Go figure. Reason #2: Romney and his allies, once again, are greatly outspending the competition (4-to-1 edge over Santorum and his allies and 3-to-1 advantage over Gingrich and his allies). Anytime Team Romney has spent more than 3-1 than opponents in a given state, it’s usually spelled victory. And Reason #3: Although this is much harder to quantify, a Romney win in either Alabama or Mississippi would signal that Republican primary voters are beginning to rally around him, despite the ideology or geography. As Politico’s Martin writes, Romney could seal the deal in Dixie. Then again, look at his vote percentages in previous Dixie primaries: South Carolina (28%), Georgia (26%), and Tennessee (28%). What do they have in common? They’re all below 30%. It would certainly be a shocker if Romney won either state tonight let alone even broke 30%.
*** The skinny on tonight’s races, per NBC’s John Bailey: In Alabama, where polls close at 8:00 pm ET, 47 delegates are at stake -- 21 awarded from congressional districts (two to district winner, one to the runner-up, winner-take-all with a majority), 26 are at large (proportional per statewide vote with 20% threshold, winner-take-all with majority). In Mississippi, where polls also close at 8:00 pm ET, there are 37 delegates at stake -- 12 awarded from congressional districts (proportional with 15% threshold, winner-take-all with 50% plus 1 vote) and 25 at large (proportional per statewide vote with 15% threshold, winner-take-all with 50% plus 1 vote). And in Hawaii’s caucuses, where polls close at 2:00 am ET, 17 delegates are at stake -- six via congressional districts (proportional per district-wide vote) and 11 at large (proportional per statewide vote). By the way, there’s a reason why the Romney folks have concentrated more on Alabama than Mississippi: Because third place in an Alabama congressional district doesn’t net you a delegate, second place there matters a LOT. Just look at the delegate haul for Romney in Georgia, thanks to edging Santorum for second place.
*** The ad-spending numbers for tonight’s races:
Alabama: Restore Our Future $1.4 million, Winning Our Future PAC $400,000, Red White and Blue Fund $275,000, Mitt Romney $234,000, Newt Gingrich $134,000, Rick Santorum $39,000
Mississippi: Restore Our Future PAC $764,000, Winning Our Future PAC $243,000, Red White and Blue Fund $221,000, Newt Gingrich $74,000, Rick Santorum $56,000
Hawaii: Ron Paul $40,000
*** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Gingrich hosts a primary night event in Birmingham, AL… Santorum does his event in Lafayette, LA…Romney attends a grassroots event on jobs and economy in St. Louis, MO then heads to Liberty, MO for a caucus event… And Paul will be at the University of Maryland.
*** On national polls and the Chewbacca Defense: Last night’s New York Times/CBS poll was the latest survey to show a job-approval drop for President Obama; in one month, his score declined nine points, from 50% to 41%. This raises the question: What major event occurred in the past month to account for this drop -- or even in the past week, when our NBC/WSJ poll had Obama’s approval rating at 50%? There are two potential culprits here: gas prices and Iran. But did those two issues really account for a nine-point drop, bringing Obama to his lowest rating in that survey (lower than after the debt-ceiling debacle)? What’s more, is it possible for Obama to be at 41% approval but leading Romney by three points (47%-44%) in a head-to head? Invoking the Chewbacca Defense, it just doesn’t make sense. Then again, actions speak louder than words, and the Obama White House has been VERY defensive on gas prices. Bottom line: It’s probably worth waiting for a few more national polls before reaching the conclusion that something has happened to Obama’s standing in the past month.
*** Speeding up the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan? Of course, there’s one additional news story you can add to Obama’s issue matrix for the month of March: Afghanistan. And the New York Times is reporting that, after the civilian killings by a U.S. soldier there, the Obama administration “is discussing whether to reduce American forces in Afghanistan by at least an additional 20,000 troops by 2013, reflecting a growing belief within the White House that the mission there has now reached the point of diminishing returns.” More: “Administration officials cautioned on Monday that no decisions on additional troop cuts have been made, and in a radio interview President Obama reaffirmed his commitment to the Afghan mission in spite of the recent setbacks, warning against ‘a rush for the exits’ amid questions about the American war strategy. ‘It’s important for us to make sure that we get out in a responsible way, so that we don’t end up having to go back in,’ Mr. Obama said in an interview with KDKA in Pittsburgh.”
*** March Madness: You can be sure that Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron will discuss Afghanistan, plus other issues, when they travel to Dayton, OH to watch tonight’s NCAA tournament basketball game there at 6:30 pm ET. The game they will be watching: Mississippi Valley State vs. Western Kentucky.
Countdown to Election Day: 238 days
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Santorum voted for Medicare Part D - (Bigger than Obama care) Santorum voted for Medicare prescription drug benefit known as Medicare Part D, though critical of it now. It is the largest expansion of entitlement spending since President Lyndon Johnson, which now costs taxpayers more than $60 billion a year and has almost $16 trillion in unfunded liabilities.
Medicare part D won't be bigger than Obamacare when all is said and done. Just wait and see. I agree. Good thing the democrats didn't write the bill. They were complaining that it didn't go far enough. If they wrote it it would be $48 trillion unfunded and cost the tax payers $180 billion a year.
Santorum’s Operation Good Neighbor. Instead, the foundation spent most of its money to run itself, including hundreds of thousands of dollars in fees for fundraising, administration and office rental paid to Santorum’s political allies. Over 60%, $1.5 million dollars of the contributions used to fill the pockets of aides, fundraisers, etc.
The charity also had significant overlap with the senator’s campaigns and his work on Capitol Hill. Among the leading donors to the foundation were Pennsylvania development and finance firms that had donated to his election efforts and had interests that Santorum had supported in the Senate.
Before it folded in 2007, the foundation raised $2.58 million, with 39 percent of that donated directly to groups helping the needy. By industry standards, such philanthropic groups should be donating nearly twice that, from 75 to 85 percent of their funds.
USHonor,I'm from Pennsylvania and your exactly right. Those are the reasons we got rid of the sanctimonious jerk. He"s goofier then a sh$%house rat.
Santorum voted 5 times to raise the debt ceiling, increasing the debt by $4.7 trillion dollars. He sponsored a $50 million dollar bill to build an indoor rain forest.
Santorum supported, the Benedict Arnold of the Republican party, Arlen Specter for reelection. Specter once a Republican switched to be a democrat. Specter became the culminating and final vote for ObamaCare. For you conservatives out there, Specter then went on to call for the repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act. ObamaCare depending on the source states that it will cost between $400 billion and $1.2 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office states that the cost will be $829 billion with job losses totaling around 1.6 million. All because Santorum willingly supported the Specter. In fact, read the PA articles he was on a crusade to get Specter reelected.
What are you trying to say? That you don't like Rick Santorum or something?
The Chewbacca Defense? I like the humor but disagree that the White House has been defensive on the price of gas. President Obama has been on the offensive for several weeks but it is difficult to get past the noise coming from four GOP presidential wannabees who seem to think drill, baby drill is the be all and end all of energy.
I do agree with FR's assessment on yesterday's poll numbers. They are inconsistent and make little sense which means either the pollster questions were push-pull or leading in some other manner. Had a pollster call last week asking similar questions in this order. Did I blame President Obama for the rising gas prices--yes or no? Which of the following do I think is the cause of rising gas prices, pick only one: Wall Street oil speculators, middle east unrest or big oil companies? After answering the questions, I pointed out to the pollster that their poll questions provided a pre-disposed bias by first suggesting that the president could be to blame and then offering the true culprits. Pollsters do not like being criticized.
GOP's Big Day in Alabama, Mississippi and Hawaii. Who will win AL and MS is anyone's guess. It's a 3-way tie. What happens if Mitt Romney wins AL or MS? Will Santorum or Gingrich drop out of the race? Not likely. How will Rick and Newt spin a Romney win? That will be fun to watch. How will Mitt spin a loss? That will be fun to watch.
Whatever the outcome, tonight we get to hear them speak again touting their wondrous virtues without ever telling voters their plan, their vision beyond it's the opposite of President Obama's. Let's hope Newt and Rick decide to use a teleprompter like Mitt does so they stay focused instead of rambling all around the barn to get to the door. Newt will talk about drill for oil versus algae and $2.50 gas versus $10 gas--ignoring Bill O'Reilly's words that politicians who promise $2 gas is B.S. Mitt will give the y'all and grits remarks before launching into what he thinks today but maybe not tomorrow. Rick will preach values and the promised land if only voters pick him.
Good luck, fellas.
If you read this before, sorry for the repeat but gremlins as well as collapsers are out today. I posted it on the initial First Thoughts only to have that entire article and comments deleted and replaced probably because gremlins made the first one incomplete. Then I tried to repost on the new FT and only half posted. Considering the gremlins and other events on FR this morning--if I were any of the GOP candidates, I'd be worried about tonight.
Gas was $4.11 a gallon in July, 2008. Bush to it down to $1.80 over the next 6 months. All it took was an economic free fall. Destroy the economy and gas prices will come down. No reason not to believe that Gingrich would follow the same path.
Jim,
That would not work this time because oil prices are being driven by the threat of war with Iran and other problems in the Middle East.
Demand is already down and production is up for a net availability of 1 million barrels of oil every day. Refinery production is so low (2 are shut down, 2 on reduced capacity) that we have been forced to export our excess crude.
Dennis.....I don't think we have "excess" crude. We may have imported it and then not had the capacity to refine it because of the problems you talk about, but I am pretty sure that we are a net importer of oil.
Put,
USA Today Dec 16, 2011: The U.S. exported more oil-based fuels than it imported in the first nine months of this year, making it likely that 2011 will be the first time since 1949 that the nation is a net exporter of such goods, primarily diesel.
"It's dramatic. It's transformative," Edward Morse, a former senior U.S. energy official who now directs global commodities research at Citigroup, says of the historic shifts. He says the U.S. is importing a smaller share — 49% in 2010, down from 60% in 2005 — of the oil it uses, adding: "We're moving toward energy independence."
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-16/us-oil-boom/52053236/1
The PAC created by Santorum that was supposed to fund other Republicans instead seemed to mostly pay for the lifestyle of Santorum and those around him. The America's Foundation PAC showed that only 18 percent of its money went to fund political candidates, less -- and typically far less -- than any other PACs. What America's Foundation did spend a lot on with what looked like everyday expenses, including 66 trips to the Starbucks in Santorum's then-hometown of Leesburg, Va., multiple fast-food outings and expenditures at Walmart, Target and Giant supermarkets. Campaign finance experts said the PAC's expenses -- paid for by donations from wealthy businessmen and lobbyists -- were "unconventional," at best and arguably not legal.
Santorum voted to cut billions in student loans that would have helped the middle class students afford college, but he voted to give oil companies an additional $2 billion in new tax breaks.
At least he's open about who he really serves.
Hint: it's not Gawd.
What else did Santorum do while in congress and living in PA. I'm mean VA. Rick was improperly spending tax dollars on HIS family. He took $100,000 from a struggling PA public school district to pay for his children’s “cyber” education program. Unfortunately, Rick and his family were living in suburban Virginia then, so they were not entitled to those funds. And when exposed in the press, Rick wouldn’t pay back the money, so the school district had to go to court to get it back — which cost us even MORE money.Pretty hypocritical, since Rick won his first congressional race by attacking the incumbent for living in VA instead of PA.
Rick Santorum was named among the most corrupt politicians in 2005-2006 by a Washington watchdog group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. Watch The Gang of Four Starring Rick Santorum it depicts corruption.
Not to mention his brain is addled fro religion and other superstitions!
Santorum turning his back on Hurricane Katrina relief efforts. Watch Santorum's vote against Hurricane Katrina help. youtube.com/watch?v=xutxQugsoZs
Let's remind our friends in the Gulf states and around the country how Santorum voted against sending aide to the Hurricane Katrina relief efforts.
Probably the most unjust is Santorum’s involment with Jack Abramoff, the lobbyist who went to prison for bribing Washington politicians. Look at the Tan family and their staggering array of human rights abuses on the Commwealth of Northern Marianas Islands. The Tan family ran sweatshops on the islands and Santorum provided legislative cover for the truly rancid sweatshops, their human rights violations and almost fathomless moral quagmire of forced prostitution and abortions
Funny how the MSM anointed ol Mitt from the get go. The guy sucks, so what do the masses do? anoint another loser like Obama, I remember a very viable candidate named Ross Perot saying , you hear that sucking sound thats all your jobs getting sucked overseas, no one listened he would have straighned out this country, now we have another candidate, honest as the driven snow, not bought and paid for by the elite lobbyist and banks, tells you the truth but no one listens and thats shame on all you, this mans a threat for the corruption going on in our government and will pull the teat out of their mouths, so go ahead select yeah right we select no one the games rigged bigger than stuttgart, problem is the sheeple havent figured it out yet.
AmericanVeteran1
Go Obaaahhhhhma 2012!
signed: another american vereran :)
Being from PA Santorum is a crook, liar and thief and we couldnt wait to overwhelmingy vote his sorry azz out of office, look no further than the k street fiasco, hes the epitomy of a lap dog to the elite.
The south!
Great!
The most religious, lowest educated, poorest, fattest, most diabetic states in the Union!
Ought to be pretty easy to scare/frighten/mislead THAT demographic into voting Republican.
For some reason, they always do!
The “South Will Rise Again” ... but hopefully not at a substantial cost to the whole country. I am totally amazed at what is presented as “Southern Conservative” political thinking and I refuse to accept it as a whole area of the country being illogical and irrational and just totally blind to reality. There are legitimate differences in political positions based on preferences for different issues - arguing immigration, taxes, government spending, women’s rights, gay rights, family values, trade issues, financial reform, healthcare reform, political reform and so on are all valid debates, however, to let manipulative aggressive appeals to biases, prejudices, fears, emotions and loyalties destroy rational thinking is ridiculous. To be “pawns” in “the money’s” game of politics is not only self-defeating it is just ignorant.
We saw Bush-Cheney totally focused on a private agenda to benefit “the few”, their strong supporters, while they gave the majority, including the total middle-class, nothing but apathy, the costs and an abundance of subterfuge to rationalize and deceive. They were fully backed by the total Republican Party as they proved beyond any doubt that the “trickle down” theory is a total fraud only making the wealthy wealthier and soliciting political support. Since then the Republican / Tea Party has stubbornly blocked and faulted all efforts while withholding bipartisan cooperation, arrogantly fighting only for the interests of “the few”, like protecting the Bush tax cuts for the very wealthy. The likes of Norquist, Cheney, Rove and others collect huge sums from “the few” and aggressively use them to coerce and intimidate their own to assure unity behind “the few’s” interests and to squelch individual consciences. They recruit “puppet” candidates who will perform exactly how “their strings are pulled” and they use their vast resources through SuperPacs and others to con the people and manipulate public opinion. These aren’t idle criticisms of a biased “liberal” but rather observations that alienated a long-term registered Republican. It is said that the current Republican / Tea Party is not capable of responsibly governing as their loyalty and concentration is completely distracted ... the last twelve years have proven that to be true.
Reducing taxes, controlling government spending and having “smaller government” are all worthwhile goals ... but they won’t solve the drastic problems we have as, contrary to the propaganda, they are not what caused the problems. What caused our problems is the aggressive exploitation by “the few”, encouraged by permissive and co-responsible politicians, that caused repeated failures in the economy always benefiting only “the few” and costing everyone else. The proof is in the reality that we are continually becoming more of a two-class society with “the few” (1%) competing in having it all and the majority (99%) struggling to survive. What we need is a government of honest and responsible representatives who are capable of bipartisan cooperation and who represent the majority, including the total middle-class, North and South as well as East and West. The only way that can ever be accomplished is by the people rejecting the propaganda, refusing to insultingly be taken for granted or to be “pawns” for “the few”, rejecting the con and along with it firmly rejecting the “puppet” politicians. Then “the money” will be ineffective and the people, North, South, East and West, will have a chance.
I'm worried that over time the entire country will SINK to the south.
Which, depending on your perspective, could mean that the South is indeed rising.
You might be a redneck... y'all live in mississippi, and think fer sure that the presidant is an evil muslim.
....if y'all live in duh south and hate government programs, except fer yer food stamps that ya earned
Anything's better than a Godless Democrat!
Particularly Republicans, who will save the zygotes!
Sweet, innocent zygotes, entitled to human rights and possessing sentience and emotions!
Please White man do not nominate Rick Goober Sanitorium who wants us all to convert to that pagan catholic religion he can't beat Pres Obama that would mean Four more years of Republican hate radio and listening to Whites Whine like a little girls If Pres Obama farts I cant take four more years of your Whinning.
I am from the South and have always been proud of it. We, like everywhere else in this country, have our share of dumb asses. Maybe even more. However, no one has ever bailed out one southern state like we did Michigan or the wall street banking and investment community. I guess maybe there are dumb asses all over.
Ron,
Actually not very accurate when you consider all the money that goes to the south to rebuild from natural disasters (hurricanes, tornados, wildfires, etc.) and the fact that more money goes back to Southern States from the Federal Government than they pay into the Federal Government.
Ron Brock--I agree dumb asses every where. We have plenty of haters and no-nothings in the North too.We have plenty of group think tribes., plenty of racists, and on and on. Let us hope we don t elect one of the true believing tribe members to be the Prez!
I wonder why it is Chuck Todd fells compelled to characterize any who is not voting for Romney as an anit-Romney vote?
I ascribe it to that whole "If you're not for X, that means you're against X" mentality that the right started spouting after 9/11. I grant you that it's probably not fair for him to assume that's what Republican Primary voters are actually thinking, but there you are.
I live in the south and enjoy it and there are a lot of very good people here. But the culture is very racist among the whites AND blacks. People are usually not overt but it is all code talk. Many many whites here will never accept Obama based on his being a LIBERAL and a BLACK, or consider voting for any black man. That is just the way it is and probably always will be
I agree that there is some racial problems in the South. I don't think that is the primary reason they are against Obama, but it could be a factor. The primary reason that they don't like Obama is that peopel in the South are strong believers in state control instead of federal control. They don't like big city Yankees like Romney either.
Plenty people in the North won t vote for President Obama because of his skin color also.
"Hey, little boy, you can't go where the others go
'Cause you don't look like they do."
"Hey, old man, how can you stand to think that way?
Did you really think about it before you made the rules?"
He said, "Son...
That's just the way it is...
Some things will never change."
"That's just the way it is..."
Ah, but don't you believe them.
The president's approval rating now stands at 41 percent, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll released Monday, a nine-point drop from his position just one month ago. The Times/CBS survey comes on the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll that put Mr. Obama's job approval at 46 percent, down four points from last month......Why is everybody picking on the POTUS?
Yeah, forget the polls...except when they support your position.
It is scary though that over 40% of people from Al and Miss think the President is a Muslim, and another 20% aren't sure? Thank-you fox news for all the stories, innuendo's and hint's you have dropped, that you really can't trust that the President is a Christian. Fox did a great job, making sure their listeners are the least informed people in this country! And all you Limbaugh defenders, Did you speak up for the Dixie Chicks, with free speech calls? If not your hypocrites!
obama is a massive failure; so it doesnt matter if he's a muslim or a christian or a buddhist. bring up another non-point
Who are the Dixie Chicks?.............
Dennis-Columbus- you make good points. However, I would point out that there are very few states that pay more into the federal government than is taken out. California and New York carried most of the country for years. I will look up Ohio because I confess I am unaware of its positive or negative impact on the budget. In terms of natural disasters you are correct but I think that is a federal policy that is meant to be in force everywhere. I think we did New Jersey last year.
If you look at the figures, most of that has to do with population density. The sparsely populated states get more tax dollars per capita because they will have more military, National Parks, miles of roads, smaller schools, etc. per capita. A military base of 30,000 in Alaska increases the per capita spending from the federal government in Alaska greatly, while that same base in California would barely make a dent.
Ron,
Red States Feed at Federal Trough, Blue States Supply the Feed
http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2004/09/red_states_feed.html
The report shows that of the 32 states (and the District of Columbia) that are "winners" -- receiving more in federal spending than they pay in federal taxes -- 76% are Red States that voted for George Bush in 2000. Indeed, 17 of the 20 (85%) states receiving the most federal spending per dollar of federal taxes paid are Red States. Here are the Top 10 states that feed at the federal trough
Yes NJ and states north of NJ last year and CA almost every year like the Gulf Coast States.
i love liberal losers crying that their blue states dont get their "fair share" of federal dollars. that's what your Blue state reps are for leftnuts! and dont you folks like to say how much smarter you are than the red state types?
Denis.....It depends how you determine the funding. See my post above. It is pretty silly to compare a state like Massachusettes to Wyoming. Of course more federal dollars are going to go to Wyoming. Less people and much more federal land.
Put,
I understand why the smaller population density States get more money back and I support the way it is done which is one reason I question why so many Republicans are trying to take Federal dollars and programs and push them back on the States.
States with larger population density will be able to take on these programs much easier than the smaller States. Some States will be hurt by these proposed changes.
Make sure you copy textually the Alabama Immigration Law, you freaking racist!!