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For the last several days, the Romney campaign has been arguing that the delegate math is on their side.
But in a new memo, the Santorum campaign is now countering with this message: Time is on theirs.
The memo from John Yob, who was recently hired to head up the Santorum campaign's delegate-counting strategy, argues that the longer the former Pennsylvania senator stays in the race, the more he stands to benefit.
The primary calendar has been frontloaded to favor Mitt Romney, Yob argues, but a series of contests in May will put the candidate on a path to be competitive for the GOP nomination heading into the August convention.
Also on Santorum's side is the possibility of Newt Gingrich abandoning his bid for the White House. That, Yob contends, would cause many of the former House speaker's delegates to fall Santorum's way. Plus, excited party conservatives could help Santorum pick up more delegates from states that held non-binding primaries and caucuses.
"Despite the Romney campaign's smokescreen, they cannot change the fact that he can't inspire the base of the party, has a delegate problem, and has a very difficult time getting to the majority," Yob says in the memo.
Yob, who held a similar post in John McCain's 2008 campaign, said at this point four years ago there was a very real concern in the Arizona senator's camp about "the possibility of a more conservative candidate staying in the race and fighting us at state conventions across the country." Yob notes that, like McCain, Romney does not have the support of the most active and conservative party members who play a key role in determining national convention delegates.
"Anyone who knows anything about state conventions knows that the most conservative candidate has a big advantage over a moderate candidate. In many cases, this advantage is overwhelming," Yob adds. The memo goes on to cite gains by Santorum and Paul during this weekend's county conventions in Iowa as proof.
The Romney campaign has argued that the math simply does not play out favorably for Santorum, and NBC News has calculated that Santorum will need to win more than 60% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination.
Also included in the memo is a state-by-state outline of how the Santorum campaign thinks the race will shape up. Tuesday, Yob predicts, will do little to change the dynamic of the race. It infers that Gingrich will drop out after the March 24 Louisiana primary, if not before. Those former Gingrich delegates will likely favor Santorum, Yob feels.
The May 8 contests held in North Carolina, Indiana ,and West Virginia will kick off a month of strong momentum for the campaign that will all culminate in a huge delegate win in Texas on May 29, the campaign believes.
"The situation is only going to get worse for [Romney] and better for Rick Santorum as time passes," Yob writes. "Simply put, time is on our side."
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We've heard these kinds of comments before, but Santorum needs either Alabama or Mississippi to keep his momentum going. If Romney wins either state, the race is presumptively over.
"Despite the Romney campaign's smokescreen, they cannot change the fact that he can't inspire the base of the party, has a delegate problem, and has a very difficult time getting to the majority," Yob says in the memo.
While that is all true, does Yob actually want any of us to believe that Santorum captures those things?
I hope santorum does win it - he's by far the easier RWNJ IDIOT to defeat. Comes the theocracy, comes the revolution - it's up to the voters to prevent that IDIOCY and the CHIEF IDIOT from EVER getting near the presidency. Frothy santorum is a good candidate for "pray-see-DUNCE", nothing else.
Yep, 2016 is a long way off so take your time Rick.
"Santorum is a loser and a Phony that's controlled by the Kocheads 1% Greed"
Misleading Article.
Time is on OUR side. The Democrats.
Because the Republicans aren't getting any fresh blood, and those baby-boomers are going to begin kicking the bucket sooner or later.
PS- California redistricting also means the democrats are picking up between 3 - 13 congressional seats.
Republicans want women to have to pay for birth control but allow the insurance company to pay for Viagra.
Republicans want to ban all abortions for any reason but not allow women to get birth control so if they were to get raped they would force them to have the rapist baby. Won't it be bad enough to have been raped now they force you to have a baby you did not want. And God forbid if the women is white and the rapist is black these same people would scream for an abortion or just leave the child on the government to take care off. Or if you are old enough remember the movie Mandigo.
Republicans want it you have a pre-existing condition and have insurance at you current job, you must stay at that job because they know you will not be able to get insurance elsewhere. Meaning lower pay, fewer benefits,
bad work environment etc. that you have to stay and contend with.
Republicans want to be to refuse insurance coverage for any reason. So if a boss/owner don’t like the way you look they can refuse to cover you.
Republicans want to cut Social Security and Medicare or to privatize it so vulture capitalist can come in raid all the proceeds and leave the people with nothing.
Republicans want to cry class warfare, yet from day one they have totally disrespected the office of the President and worked only to protect the wealthy.
Republicans refuse to admit trickle-down economics have not worked. By all account the wealthy have
gotten richer and the middle class have gotten poorer. Sounds like tickle up economics.
Republicans want smaller government yet they want use the government to force their religious beliefs on everyone. Believe what my religion says or you can’t work here.
Republicans want to restrict voters’ rights. If they want everyone to have a government issue ID, make it free to get in every state. Or make the voter requirements the same as cashing a check, getting medicine, puchasing alcohol that you need an ID for and all the transactions that requires ID. There should be one requirement for every type and that should be free to get.
And Republicans want to call President Obama a socialist. From everything the Republicans are trying to
do they want the United States to turn into a Communist nation. Just look at the control they are trying to
get over everyone’s lives.
Reagan Democrats = Obama Republicans
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
Keep it up Mr. Santorum! All the way to a brokered Republican Convention. Like Newt supporter Sarah Palin would like to see. She thinks it would be a great thing for the country and I agree. Obama 2012.
Sure RiKi just like the last chapters of the bible.
@AnaBanana-1782128
Keep it up Mr. Santorum! All the way to a brokered Republican Convention. Like Newt supporter Sarah Palin would like to see. She thinks it would be a great thing for the country and I agree. Obama 2012
Amen Ana
Surely, it will be his apocalypse.
4 more years for 44
Nobody but Obama/Biden 2012
Yes, we can!!!
@
you are wanting a brokered convention? Sorry, but, other than the off chance that the GOP would be crazy enough to nominate Palin, I don't see how that helps.
We could wind up with Jeb Bush and Obama would lose.
rick, if you think ANY independent in this country would give a Bush another chance - my response to you is
DREAM IT!
Too soon doesn't begin to cover it!
"Santorum wants to bomb Iran with Aspirins"
Rick in Savannah,
You think Obama would lose to a Bush? My Godness! Savannagh, Georgia must be more isolated than I originally thought. Pleeeze!
wow, i'm on the edge of my seat with excitement.
wow, i'm on the edge of my seat with excitement.
Hold your popcorn tight. You'll need it cause you might see Mama Palin jump in if the maths are not adding up. Palin jump in? haha
she can jump in if she wants - she can't swim with the sharks.
"Santorum is a sick bimbo, how can anyone vote for him is crazy"
It's a catchy phrase for the moment, heading into some southern contests. But in time, California and New York roll around. I believe both are winner take all - anyone know for sure?
Hey, I'd love for someone to take Romney down as much as anyone. Even beyond the question of which party anyone prefers over which party, and acknowledging all politicians sacrifice some degree of integrity on the campaign trail, I'm really a little put off by Romney's shameless degree to which he waves bye bye to any sense of integrity.
But, that said, it's likely to be Romney. There's better than a 50-50 chance he has a majority of delegates going into the convention. And then we'll all get to see what happens when a party nominates someone its membership doesn't like and doesn't trust.
"Romney should give Santorum a Aspirin after that 8 hour ride on Mitt's roof"
From what I heard from former head of the RNC M. Steele after 4/1 they are all winner take all format and he is the one who wrote the rules. Also per him, which has received very little play Romney will not have enough delegates to win in the first round and the delegates are not able to change votes- they are bound for one round. Tampa should be fun
Will the Rolling Stones tour with Santorum? Tiiiiiime is on my side yes it is LOL what a fool. Time is not on his side. He needs a hell of a lot of delegates to stay in the race. I hope he wins the nomination. I want to see the President debate him. that would be hilarious.
As Feisty says "popcorn time" lol
frothy is a PERFECT example of "Stupid IS as stupid DOES"
All I can say to that is if we dems get too confident, Santorum could Forrest Gump his way into the White House. That wouldn't be good for anyone.
When the people finally become offended by “the money” being in control, by insultingly being taken for granted, in constantly being conned and manipulated by all of the deceptive propaganda, paid for by ‘the money” and cloaked as “conservative”, while the “puppet” politicians just cater to “the money’s” interests, ... then the people will be able to get rid of the “puppet” politicians who put their political interests above all else and serve only the interests of “the money”. If the voters want to send the message that they are not just “pawns” to be used in “the money’s” game of politics, then they really need to do so by rejecting those politicians who stubbornly fault and block all efforts, who arrogantly withhold bipartisan cooperation and who are irresponsibly just focused on gaining political advantage. John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum and others immediately come to mind as being the arrogant and stubborn, even cocky and belligerent individuals who serve only the interests of “the few”, as they obnoxiously just take the people for granted.
The courts refused to do it and the politicians will never do it ... the question is, will the people do it? The only way to get “the money” out of politics is to render it ineffective. Both parties are guilty, as when one does it the other does to survive, but because of differences in philosophies the Republicans are closer to “the money’s” interests and easier to corrupt and thus have become literally owned and controlled by “the money”. To ever regain the Grande Ole Party, once again honestly interested in the people, then the stranglehold “the money” has on them needs to be broken. It has been said that the current Republican / Tea Party is totally incapable of responsibly governing because their focus and commitment is totally distracted - the last twelve years have clearly proven that to be true. If the people simply recognize the aggressive efforts aimed to con and manipulate them, reject the constant propaganda and then firmly reject the “puppet” candidates, then “the money” will literally be ineffective ... and the politicians will have to concentrate on responsibly serving the people.
@RGiles-
I agree with what you said. The only problem with it is that the tea baggers target the uneducated and ignorant segments of our society. That's why they do so well in states like Alabama and Mississippi and (I'm embarassed to say) Arizona. In other words, states that are at or near the bottom in education.
Why do you think Santorum called President Obama a snob for encouraging all Americans to seek some kind of higher education? It's because he's going after votes from people that stopped going to school around the fifth grade.
They admit they cater to the rich. They just tell the impoverished rubes that vote for them that some day they might be rich too, and the rubes get all starry-eyed, sigh, and say "Gee, I hope so." Then the rubes vote for the Palins and Santorums on the ballot.
Therefore: the dumber the better.
Santorum could take Texas, but Romney has to be favored in New York and California. Rick is bad at math.
Time is NOT on Santorum's side. The longer the campaign goes on, the more idiotic things come out of his mouth, which makes him less and less elective!
"We have met the enemy and he is us!" Pogo by Walt Kelly
For some reason that scene from the movie Fallen keeps playing the tune,...while the evil keeps spreading from hand to unsuspecting shoulder to cat, etc.
"...Tiiiimmmmee is on mmmmmmmmmyyyyyyyyy side, yes it is!"
very creepy,...and PERFECT for Santorum!
Ahh, here is the trailer. Super Creepy movie! Perfect for Pubbies!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO-jGkLzRgM
YUK, YUK, YUK
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSRSHUGOOn4
"The Serial Flip-flopper, The Exclusive Tax Rate, The Progressive, The Contradictions, The Tax Returns, The Swiss Bank, The Cayman Islands, The Obama-care Inventor"
Mitt Romney profited from government sources as Medicare, 25 separate state Medicaid programs, Federal Employees Health Benefit Programs and The Railroad Retirement Board which serves civilian families of military personnel.
As manager and Board member of Damon Corporation, Romney sits at the center of one of the Top 15 Corporate Crimes of the 1990's. I hate to say the Dems will have no problem defeating Mitt Romney. Wake up America. Demand the Republican Party put forward a presidential candidate that has a chance to reclaim our future.
It's presently blind, trekking on a fools path and in dire need of help.
The Republicans continue to court the Christian evangelicals and fundamentalists, much to their own demise. If they are stupid enough to nominate Santorum, they will lose by a landslide to Obama -- whether you like him or not. Santorum is a divider -- he is arrogant and wants to prescribe what people should believe in, e.g., his brand of Catholicism. He's already alienated thousands upon thousands of women with his backward views on contraception. He also has an issue with separation of church and state. My prediction is that if he is nominated, Republicans and independents who would have voted for Romney will just stay home. Game over.
I wonder how President Sanscrotum will enact his ban on all contraception once elected--by Presidential decree or by getting Congress to enact a law?