Discuss as:

Santorum camp: Time is on our side

 

For the last several days, the Romney campaign has been arguing that the delegate math is on their side.

But in a new memo, the Santorum campaign is now countering with this message: Time is on theirs.

The memo from John Yob, who was recently hired to head up the Santorum campaign's delegate-counting strategy, argues that the longer the former Pennsylvania senator stays in the race, the more he stands to benefit.

The primary calendar has been frontloaded to favor Mitt Romney, Yob argues, but a series of contests in May will put the candidate on a path to be competitive for the GOP nomination heading into the August convention.

Also on Santorum's side is the possibility of Newt Gingrich abandoning his bid for the White House. That, Yob contends, would cause many of the former House speaker's delegates to fall Santorum's way. Plus, excited party conservatives could help Santorum pick up more delegates from states that held non-binding primaries and caucuses.

"Despite the Romney campaign's smokescreen, they cannot change the fact that he can't inspire the base of the party, has a delegate problem, and has a very difficult time getting to the majority," Yob says in the memo.

Yob, who held a similar post in John McCain's 2008 campaign, said at this point four years ago there was a very real concern in the Arizona senator's camp about "the possibility of a more conservative candidate staying in the race and fighting us at state conventions across the country." Yob notes that, like McCain, Romney does not have the support of the most active and conservative party members who play a key role in determining national convention delegates.

"Anyone who knows anything about state conventions knows that the most conservative candidate has a big advantage over a moderate candidate. In many cases, this advantage is overwhelming," Yob adds. The memo goes on to cite gains by Santorum and Paul during this weekend's county conventions in Iowa as proof.

The Romney campaign has argued that the math simply does not play out favorably for Santorum, and NBC News has calculated that Santorum will need to win more than 60% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination.

Also included in the memo is a state-by-state outline of how the Santorum campaign thinks the race will shape up. Tuesday, Yob predicts, will do little to change the dynamic of the race. It infers that Gingrich will drop out after the March 24 Louisiana primary, if not before. Those former Gingrich delegates will likely favor Santorum, Yob feels.

The May 8 contests held in North Carolina, Indiana ,and West Virginia will kick off a month of strong momentum for the campaign that will all culminate in a huge delegate win in Texas on May 29, the campaign believes.

"The situation is only going to get worse for [Romney] and better for Rick Santorum as time passes," Yob writes. "Simply put, time is on our side."