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Jim Young / Reuters
Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum addresses supporters at his "Super Tuesday" primary election night rally in Steubenville, Ohio, March 6, 2012.
Rick Santorum's long-term campaign strategy is to upend the trajectory of the GOP primary, and snatch the Republican presidential nomination away from Mitt Romney.
But his more pressing, immediate concern involves winning on Saturday in Kansas, and on Tuesday in Alabama and Mississippi, by which he could finally push Newt Gingrich out of the race.
Santorum would still face long odds to become the Republican nominee, but any march to Tampa would be less impeded if Newt Gingrich were to exit. But the former speaker has suggested he won’t voluntarily drop out of the race before Tuesday, but by describing both contests as “must-win” affairs, he opened the door to being forced out by virtue of a loss in either state.
"The ability for conservatives to win the Republican nomination is greatly diminished by Gingrich in the race," said Stuart Roy, an adviser to the Red, White and Blue Fund, a pro-Santorum super PAC. "That's why we're investing in Mississippi and Alabama. We can win, and a win in either state would show the need for Gingrich to leave."
To that end, the super PAC went on air with ad buys in both Mississippi and Alabama totaling more than a combined $1 million. Their spot goes after both Gingrich and Romney, whose numbers with Republicans in both states are judged to be, at a minimum, positive enough that he might be able to squeak by in one of the contests if his campaign were to compete aggressively.
Santorum seems to understand the importance of these states, which fall in the immediate wake of Super Tuesday.
"We have to do well in Kansas -- no, we have to win in Kansas, and win big," he said during a speech on Wednesday afternoon in Lenexa.
And he alluded to the need to dispatch Gingrich in a speech last night in Mississippi. "If we win Mississippi, this will be a two-person race," Santorum told supporters in Jackson. "And if it is a two-person race, we will nominate a conservative as president of the United States."
In many ways, Romney has been the beneficiary of a not having had to face a single opponent during the primary who managed to rally conservatives. Gingrich and Santorum each traded opportunities as the chief conservative candidate, a fight which has allowed Romney to accrue a sizable enough delegate advantage that his campaign is now beginning to argue that he’s Romney is the inevitable Republican nominee.
Polls of two of the most competitive Super Tuesday states belie the argument that, if Gingrich were out of the race, Santorum might have enough support to beat Romney. The former Massachusetts governor won 43 "somewhat conservative" voters in the Ohio primary, but if Santorum's 33 percent share and Gingrich's 16 percent share were combined, Santorum would have the advantage. If Santorum and Gingrich were to add even together their share of the "moderate" vote in Ohio, they would have only trailed Romney by 2 percent in Ohio among moderates, who made up 1 in 5 Ohio primary voters.
And in Tennessee, a state which Santorum won but all three major candidates contested, just 43 percent of primary voters saw Romney as the candidate best suited to beat President Barack Obama in November. The voters apparently unconvinced of Romney's electability split between Santorum (25 percent) and Gingrich (21 percent).
That's all to assume, though, that Santorum would automatically inherit Gingrich voters if the former speaker were to leave the race. And it isn't clear, either, that Gingrich would necessarily offer his endorsement to Santorum -- a gesture that would presumably goad supporters of Gingrich to filter their energy his way.
Of course, any focus by Santorum to knock out Gingrich on Tuesday would be scuttled if both of them lose to Romney. A poll of likely voters in Tuesday's primary found Santorum leading, at 22.7 percent, followed by Romney at 18.7 percent and Gingrich at 13.8 percent. The Alabama State University poll was conducted, though, before Super Tuesday, and has a 4.4 percent margin of error.
Adding to that is the strategy pursued by a pro-Romney super PAC, which has not let up in its attacks against Santorum in advertising for Tuesday's two primaries.
That may be because Romney supporters view a divided conservative base as beneficial, at least until they can manage a stranglehold on the nomination.
"If he wins both states, he may well stay around," Roy said of Gingrich and the Tuesday states, highlighting the importance for Santorum in drawing the race into a one-on-one showdown against Romney come next Wednesday.
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I think that would be God fighting against himself....the two are the same
hey.. ron paul has to be in on this.you cant leave him out ..he is looking at the two of them
hey this would be over if palin would just come out and say so
Best thing that could happen for Obama. Every day that the nutcase Ricky is in the races forces Mitt to go more and more nutty. the independents will flock to Obama in November... unless Ricky comes back to the middle (flip-flop anyone)... which also sinks him....
Just Out Today Rasmussen GOP poll: Best chance against Obama : Romney 51% , Santorum 19%, Gingrich 18%.Don't let Obama choose his opponent. Michael Moore, Obama PACS, the Unions, and the DNC all want you to vote for Santorum. Don't take the bait. Come on Alabama, Mississippi, & Kansas. Vote Romney ROMNEY/RUBIO 2012 & 2016
If you look at the RealClearPolitics.com poll of polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html), it's clear the Republicans are choosing a candidate to lose to Obama by a large margin or a candidate to lose to Obama by an historically large margin. While much can happen between now and November, the continuing Republican circular firing squad plus the inability of Mitt to relate to average Americans gives the Republicans a very steep hill to climb.
The picture of Santorum is great..Put that little black mustache on him,save his head and what do we have?A theocratic Skin head.
'Ol Gingrich doesn't want to exit now. He wants the nomination or at least to stand in the way of someone else's progress. Gingrich has had diminished abilities and capabilities and those who vote for him or support him and his candidacy are not firing on all cylinders. Gingrich's baggage has and will weigh him down with those who can think.
Hitler blamed Germany's bad economy on the Jews...The republicans are blaming the USA bad economy on the democrats ..do you see the difference people
somewhat!
that's how they won the last election..on a bad economy.
where are all the crazes at tonight
and im not talking about myself
look at all that super pac..money down the drain...thanks supreme court..for your ruling..of big donors...that could have been tax money that could have help us in this recession..starting news jobs across the nation..yes and even electric trains...magnate trains..new tech..
Newt hopes to drill for oil on the moon,once he has established a 51st state.Once established, he'll build refineries.
This is the difference between Romney and the other 2 candidates, Gingrich and Santorum. In 2008, when Romney was up against Mccain and he was in the same boat with the numbers similar or even better than Gingrich and Santorum, he realized that the math was too impossible for him to squeeze out a victory and decided to drop out early (some time in February) and for the good of the country and the party he threw his support for McCain. Why Gingrich and Santorum can't do the same and go on to damage the party and not rally around the inevitable nominee does not say much for these self serving characters.
Santorum with all his religious talk should suck in a lot of people in the bible belt but I don't think it will be enough to beat Mitt. Of course, who ever runs against Obama is doomed to lose.
Santorum can keep on lying and saying hateful things all he wants. There is no reason for Gingrich to quit as long as he is having fun and getting lots of attention. The anti-contraception agenda of the GOP is turning women off and they will all be voting for President Obama and Democrats if they care about having rights and having birth control available and free from their insurance companies.
Oh yea!! And this so called contraception issue is the front and center issue the women voters will be voting on coming November in the midst of a recession. This is so ridiculous for anyone who think this will be the issue women will vote on in November!! "It's the Economny Stupid"
Teach you forgot democrats are for socialism, no border control, no national language, no prayer in school, allowing homosexuals to bunk with straight soldiers, class warfare and passing judgement on successful citizens, extending unemployment, collecting welfare, food stams, having babies and letting republican taxpayers foot the bill, free condoms and birth control pills at high schools.............. friggin perverts.
Seriously? The guy who can't even run a proper primary
campaign now has as his grand strategy to knock out the
Newt?!?!!?
okay then, LOOK OUT Mitt!!! The really religious whacko
has a plan to take out the misogynistic, serial adulterer
religious whacko...... I'd be planning a bunker strategy if
I were you Mitt......
Seriously?????
What a clown parade.
omg, a 16 trillion dollar national debt, iran breathing nuclear weapons down our backs, 9 percent unemployment and victoria Einstein is worried about her birth control pills.
This primary has resulted in the Republican candidates tacking so far to the right there is no coming back. I am sure Santorum is a nice enough guy but he is so out of touch with where the majority of Americans are on the issues that if he were to become the nominee he would get routed. Absolutely the worst group of candidates I have seen run on either side in my lifetime. Now they are getting all bellicose about bombing Iran, when the country is anxious to put an end to two wars. Just nonsense.
Hitler blamed Germany's bad economy on the Jews...The republicans are blaming the USA bad economy on the democrats ..do you see the difference people
Uh, is it democrats are not from Israel and hold the executive branch of the USA...... just a guess. (eye roll)
Now, on the war issue, I've heard the guppies and puppets of mainstream media coo breast milk, gripe, complain, and whine about participation in two wars. It doesn't amaze me that obuma will not be held responsible for that either, especially in light of the fact of his fake campaign promises concerning the war 3 years ago. Now that a fresh threat of a terrorist country sporting nuclear weapons is clear as day, the tree huggers want to look the other way and wait till we get attacked. Could it possibly be our fabulous "commander in chief" the leader of hardcorps special tactics division, doesn't know a damn thing about foreign policy, commanding an army, or how to properly heat an mre? naaaaaaaaaaaaa course not.
The simple hard fact is as long as there are more stupid people in america than educated ones, Republicans don't stand a chance.
Yet another blathering teapublican rube...
There are quite a lot of stupid people in America. Most of them inhabit red states.
As evidenced by high school graduation rates, SAT scores, and incidence of post high school education..
Nice try cletus ray bob...
You've got it backwards, Mr. Caviar. Something is fishy about your logic. thought only"snobs" are educated as Mr. Sanctimonious drivels about. The only thing dumber than a dumb Dem is a smart Rep.
R epublican
R ich
R acist
R eligious
R etarded
Most are either rich, or all the others.
Santorum, I ain't going to vote for you because I am a democrat but you can use my secular atheist size 13 boot shove up Newt's butt at high velocity upon request symbolically because you have not committed Adultery multiple times like him and then have the audacity to be major sleaze hypocrit and impeach Clinton for fibbing his way around his adultery with Monica. If everyone had known Newt was doing that back then at that time, his whole career would have been Toast and never heard of again, not now or ever in major politics....but like Swarzenneger and his second family got exposed after leaving politics so it is swept under carpet.
adultry is ok and fine with the GOP its just lieing about it under oath that counts, so they say , and so they do
newt has too big of a ego to drop out, so does ron paul, newt still thinks america will change its mind , finally wake up and realise he is by far the best man to run the country and make sure romney doesnt get enough delegates then the gop establishment realises their mistakes and nominates newt as their lord and savior. He still doesnt get it, the gop threw him out and doesnt like him, many americans dont like him but when you love yourself so much and think you know it all you just cant beieve that reality i guess
It's NOT about the first amendment Larry, it's about economics. Rush the junkie has the right to say anything he wants ans people have the right to encourage anyone to boycott the companies who sponsor him.
None of this matters. Neither Gingrich or Santorum is going anywhere. Romney will win the nomination and President Obama will be win in November.
thats fine with me. Santorum is a nut in the making. Maybe ricky and his profolactic mind should go drop out and pledge his delegates to gingrich. newt needs to tell that fellow lobbiest to kiss his rear end.
If Rick Santorum is able to win the Republican nomination for the 2012 race he will pivot so quickly that supporters will not be able to recognize him. The Republicans who have said anybody but Obama won't have any alternative but to cast their vote for him. He knows that and all he'll have to do is convince Independents that he's not a right-wing ideologue by severely (there's that word) modifying his rhetoric. He'll be going after the "I really haven't paid much attention before now" voters. He'll need a bib to keep the butter that is melting in his mouth from getting on his sweater vest.