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Two days until Super Tuesday and the pivotal Ohio Republican presidential primary, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are running neck and neck in the Buckeye State, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll conducted Feb. 29 - March 2.
Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, gets the support of 34 percent of likely GOP primary voters, and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, gets 32 percent.
They’re followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 15 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 13 percent.
"Meet the Press" moderator David Gregory takes a look at a new NBC/Marist College poll that found that a significant number of Republican voters are not pleased with their party's frontrunners for the presidential nomination.
Full Results (.pdf): Ohio | Virginia
“I just think it’s going to very close,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, says of the Santorum-Romney race in the state.
That contest in Ohio – one of 11 on Super Tuesday – is significant for both Romney and Santorum. A Romney win, following his victories last week in Michigan and Arizona, would cement his front-runner status and keep him on his path (no matter how rocky it’s been) toward capturing the GOP presidential nomination.
But a Santorum win would signal that his close second-place finish in Romney’s native state of Michigan wasn’t a fluke, and it would likely ensure that this Republican nomination battle remains competitive — perhaps through April and maybe even June.
In Ohio, a majority of likely GOP primary voters view Romney as the Republican candidate with the best chance of defeating President Obama in November. And a plurality sees Santorum as the true conservative in the field and as the candidate who best understands their problems.
What’s more, Santorum performs better with the most conservative voters (Tea Party supporters, evangelical Christians, those describing themselves as “very conservative”), while Romney does better with more moderate voters and those who aren’t Tea Party supporters.
Yet by a 57 to 36 percent margin, these likely GOP primary voters prefer electability over ideology.
If Santorum holds an advantage in Ohio, it’s that Romney isn’t running up a large lead with early or absentee voters, like he did in Arizona and Michigan. Among the 11 percent who have voted early in the Buckeye State, according to the poll, Romney leads by four points, 39 to 35 percent.
Romney holds sizable lead in Virginia
A separate NBC/Marist of Virginia – another Super Tuesday state – shows Romney with a sizable lead over Ron Paul among likely GOP primary voters, 69 to 26 percent.
Romney and Paul are the only two Republican presidential candidates who qualified for the ballot in Virginia.
But Romney would have a smaller lead in a hypothetical matchup featuring the other two candidates. Romney would place at 36 percent, followed by Santorum at 28 percent, Gingrich at 15 percent and Paul at 13 percent.
In both Ohio and Virginia, a substantial number of Republican primary voters are unsatisfied with the current field of GOP presidential candidates.
In Ohio, 51 percent say they’re satisfied with the current crop of candidates, while 46 percent would like to see someone else run. In Virginia, 47 percent say they’re satisfied, while 50 percent would like to see others get into the race.
“This is a very unhappy Republican electorate,” Miringoff says.
Obama has the early general-election edge in both states
And that’s reflected in the head-to-head match ups for the general election in these two important battleground states.
In Ohio – where President Obama’s approval rating stands at 45 percent – he leads Paul by 10 points among registered voters (48 to 38 percent), Romney by 12 points (50 to 38 percent), Santorum by 14 (50 to 36 percent) and Gingrich by 15 (51 to 36 percent).
In Virginia – where his approval rating is 51 percent – his leads are even bigger: 17 points over Romney (52 to 35 percent), 21 points over Paul (53 to 32 percent), 22 points over Santorum (54 to 32 percent) and 26 over Gingrich (57 to 31 percent).
What’s occurring in both states, Miringoff explains, is that Obama is reaching the percentages he won in 2008 – 51 percent in Ohio, 53 percent in Virginia – while Republican voters so far have failed to coalesce around their candidates.
The NBC News/Marist poll of Ohio was conducted from Feb. 29 - March 2 of 3,079 registered voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and 820 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 3.4 percentage points).
The NBC/Marist poll of Virginia was conducted from Feb. 29 - March 2 of 2,518 registered voters (plus-minus 2.0 percentage points) and 529 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 4.3 percentage points.
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Early voting in Ohio is already dramatically down from 2008. According to a spokesman for the Ohio Secretary of State, about a half million people had already cast ballots in the primary by this time in 2008, compared with 160,000 as of Friday (down 68%). Some county election officers report early voting to be 10% of what it was in 2008.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73575.html
For a moment I thought it was a double suicide. Not that that hasn't happened this season.
Early voting is good news for Santorum, because most of that early voting was when he was riding highest in the Ohio polls. It is bad news because it is skewing the polls compared to results. What is obvious about early voting is that republicans are still considering the options, so they are waiting to vote.
I also think there is one less week of early voting on this election too.
Ever since the Republicans gave up on the idea of competing with President Obama, it doesn't much matter how, or if, they vote.
If NBC shows Romney behind Santorum by 2%, it probably means that Romney is AHEAD by about 5% in Ohio among voters.
NBC/Marist will do anything to assist the Obama campaign, especially in trying to keep the conflict in the Republican campaign going as long as possible.
NBC/Marist is not exactly a 'beacon of polling accuracy'.
Early voting is good news for Santorum, because most of that early voting was when he was riding highest in the Ohio polls.
DB:
I agree, but the "good news" may be rendered moot by his campaign's failure to file slates of delegates in many of Ohio's congressional districts.
SI
moonbaseGOP "Santorum is a NUT, plain and simple. SEPARATION of CHURCH and STATE, dingbat - it's one of the BASIC principles..... sheesh!!!"
But it's OK for Obama to tell Catholics to forget about their core doctrine against abortion and force them to pay for 'contraception'?
I guess your version of 'separation of Church and State' goes only one way - Obama's 'my way or the highway'.
If NBC shows Romney behind Santorum by 2%, it probably means that Romney is AHEAD by about 5% in Ohio among voters.
Roy:
In addition, this poll was taken prior to Romney's win in Washington and probably doesn't account for the news of Santorum's delegate mess in Ohio.
SI
Don't they mean NBC/Marxist poll?
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
The only sane choice
YES, because employers have no right to enforce their beliefs on their employees, even if religious ones... ESPECIALLY the religious ones (separation of church and state)...
And in this case, those religious beliefs go against the grain of providing the ability for women to maximize their probability of having good health...
If this 'no law against religious beliefs' became the norm, then the Catholic church should just announce that pedophile behavior is within their core doctrine, and they won't have to worry anymore about dealing with their priests being caught doing it... since then pedophile behavior would have to be allowed within Catholic churches... legally!
SEE why this is a dangerous and ridiculous argument now?
"A lost for Santorum would make my day, because the nut would throw this Nation under the Bus"
ROY WILSON-336103
Separation of church and state has been pretty clear for many years. Direct church activities: exempt. Business ventures supported by the church that compete with "normal" businesses: comply with existing laws.
Just how far do you want to take this? Do you support the Blunt bill that takes it so far as to be completely unmanageable?
real americans first...
The only sane chioce?
ROTFLMAO! Obamas so called intelligence, deviseness, lack of focus and piss poor leadership has given us a near perfect storm of economic weakness come jan 2013 regardless of POTUS. Right now our economic growth is due more to the private sector being tired of the DC gridlock.
Which candidate is best addressing the problems presents facing our country and has some solutions. We are still in a needless war that (1) we can not afford (2) that we can not win (3) that supports a corrupt puppet government (4) involves war crimes and human rights violations( none of which are reported in US mainstream media). A 7 trillion dollar loss in home values for US home owners. 30 million out of work. Millions of home in foreclosure and more under water. www.bush-it-usa.com
The corporate media always downplays Ron Paul, he has just as much chance as anyone to win and he has alot more porular support. Why do the large media outlets always discount him I wonder?...........
Because, according to the polls and according to the voters, Paul is running a poor fourth in a four-horse race.
Please vote to sweep the House and Senate of these GOP obstinate, regressive mouthpieces for the 1%. The 1% run the government as a plutocracy and, if they have their way, there will be no progress. It was the industrialists that took the jobs abroad and bring the finished product back for us to buy. They're paying the lowest taxes since Harry Truman was in office and continue to pledge more to defense--as education gets the ax.
Obama 2012
The gathering evidence of discontent among the GOP electorate is most troubling for Conservative leaders. They try to deny it but disgraceful turnout makes it clear...
The longstanding Republican strategy of pandering to an evermore radical base has finally brought them to a place where even longstanding Republican voters have trouble stomaching it.
I never did put much stock in the intelligence of Buckeyes.
The truth is that the possibility of Obama winning by a landslide is not yet a reality. If you do not want any of these morons to be President. Don't be complacent.
Go out and vote Obama 2012
The Marist Poll is a Crock.
Here's why
Democrats - Sampled 38 out of 100 when The reality is 34- 35 out of 100 are democrats
Republicans - sampled 26 out of 100 when the reality is 33 - 35 out of 100 are Republicans.
That gives a democrat opinon at least a 10 point boost that is not reality.
That is combined with a few other opinion guiding wording and oversampling lower income people, you sure will get a democrat pounding crap out of a republican.
Dear mr Akron,
Please provide us with your Certificate of Authenticity regarding your credibility as a statistician. Until then we will only assume you are not a real American!
The guy commenting about how Ron Paul actually had a better chance is clearly right. Look at the REAL delegate counts. Some of you still assume winning a beauty contest which most of the time has now been proven to be rigged or fraudulent anyways doesn't realize the fact that ron paul is right behind romney is truel REAL delegates which is how you get nominated. Turn off the television educate yourself on the real truth. as for any pualites paulbots etc comments theyll simply be ignored. when you do know the truth of what really is happening why would anything you hear bother you? im sure glad i realized the truth about obama.. as for the obama/biden 2012 the only sane choice? wow just wow ndaa is sane? if you really support the troops dont just get a yellow magnetic ribbon on your car and pat yourself on the back. how bout you effin listen to them. or get your info from them about whats REALLY going on in iraq or afghanistan since hey experienced it first hand.
If God himself allegedly told israel that they are his chosen people, why didn't God himself tell every other nation about it? Why didn't he say "Hey, I like these people, just so you know."? Why bother to tell one nation at all if he was just going to let other people do stuff to them? It makes no sense.
It's a lot like how God allegedly speaks through the pope....only the pope, yet the vatican has more secrets than the CIA and even brags about their secret vault. If God was talking to the pope, what is he so afraid of the people finding out? :P
On this issue, why were Jesus's writings, and someone with such a love of books would have undoubtedly written his own thoughts, never displayed? Were they censored? Burned? What did Jesus himself feel that is so dangerous to modern chrisianity?
These people who moan around about how miserable you are without God when in reality they are ten times more miserable because all they do is spend their time bemoaning people they don't even know, are going to support our country into world war 3 with these crazy people who hear things no other country hears as they start nuclear war.
Religion is a wonderful thing when: It makes you a productive member of society, when it makes you help those weaker or more defenseless than you, when it makes you care in ways you never thought to, or it makes you conscious of your actions.
The bible is rewritten and christianity does none of these things. A bible verse says "Know them by their fruit." Next time a religious dingbat lectures you...simply know them by their fruit, what kind of good person are THEY to lecture YOU? What do they donate to charity, what child have they saved the life of? What soup kitchen do they dedicate a weekend to?
No...they park their butts down and worry about which politician is going to win and how dare the democrats not want to genocide people because some book said to.
Guess what?
The necronomicon WASN'T written by HP lovecraft, yet was an ancient book written around the time of the bible which was written in blood and on bound leather they assume was human flesh. It travels museums, it has been translated to the best of people's capacity to do so (and I believe lovecraft's was an interpretation of it, like the NIV version), and I do NOT believe a single person should read that book or the reprints of that book OR follow it regardless the fact it is ALSO 4000 year old gobbledygook written in the middle east. That seems very popular for some reason.
Roy Wilson, Notre Dame University, Saint Whoever College, and Saint Whoever Hospital are not churches. They are profit making corporations. As profit corporations have to follow the laws of this country. You want to allow them to refuse health care options to women fine with me. Stop being a profit making enterprise. Become a charity. In other words cut your prices. Stop taking any money from the city, state, of Federal taxpayers. No Pell grants, no government subsidized school loans, no medicare repayments etc etc etc. Question why haven't you spoken out about how the US government is violating the religious freedom for the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Days Saints by denying them their right to polygamy Their religious teachings say it is the only way to get to heaven? Their Prophet Warren Jeffs was jailed for his religious beliefs. Why didn't you protest that? How about Rastafari's where was your protest over the government not allowing them to their religious practice of smoking canabis which they consider a sacrament?
"Santorum is a Rush fan"
I am always amazed when the people on this site list the media as being controlled by the far left. We see every day evidence that it just isn't true. You just don't like the fact that the statistics show Obama gaining ground while the extreme right - Santorum and Romney keep losing. And, after the debacle that was this past week with the birth control committee, you will be hard pressed to find any intelligent women voting GOP. We know when we are being ridiculed, debased, slandered, and when a party is trying to control us. It won't work. Unlike what the GOP is trying to tell people - we are intelligent and have integrity and we're ready to kick the GOP out!
Devil's Son "Roy Wilson, Notre Dame University, Saint Whoever College, and Saint Whoever Hospital are not churches. They are profit making corporations."
You need to learn the difference between 'profit making' institutions and 'Non-Profit institutions'. When you do, then post comments that are credible.
DB Akron "The Marist Poll is a Crock. Here's why........Democrats - Sampled 38 out of 100 when The reality is 34- 35 out of 100 are democrats....Republicans - sampled 26 out of 100 when the reality is 33 - 35 out of 100 are Republicans.....That gives a democrat opinion at least a 10 point boost that is not reality."
Excellent point - The most recent survey shows 36.0% of voters self-identify as Republicans and 32.4% as Democrats. If your sampling figures are correct, the actual statistical error for the NBC/Marist poll is 16% too high for Democrats. That's why NBC/Marist polls are not very credible.
My personal 'election model' shows Obama getting about 43% of the vote if the election was held today, primarily because of the dramatic decline in self-identified Democrats, the large increase in self-identified Republicans, and the significant change against Obama (-17% from 2008) among the Independents. Also, Obama's record turnout among Hispanics and young, inexperienced voters will likely return to more normal voting patterns now that they know that Obama's 'promises' are empty.
Head to head polls at this point are meaningless because about one-third of voters don't get serious about voting for another 6 months, and they don't even know who the Republican candidate will be and what they stand for.
The media bias to try to prop up Obama in the minds of the public is getting desperate and laughable.
You're ignoring the fact that legitimate polls adjust for variations such as that you've just described. If they didn't no poll would ever have validity.
Republicans are in trouble this November.
hate to bust everyone's bubble; GOP is a bunch of sorry ash Pompus Viper losers...kinda, sorta Looks Like WE will be Stuck with another forked-tongue jack-ass........
high gas prices, high food prices, high unemployment, high spending and republicans improved a little when took over the congress, most of the States now have gays marriage, missing up the middle east by supporting Muslim brotherhood evil in the dark winter with Islamics , this is president obama achievement
John B, Des Moines, IA "You're ignoring the fact that legitimate polls adjust for variations such as that you've just described."
Not possible, since assigning sampling percentages by Party is the first step in any poll. That's the basic reason that polls differ - assigning sampling percentages by Party, and it's also the reason that Rasmussen is almost always the most accurate - they constantly adjust for Party affiliation with surveys.
In 2008, the correct sampling percentages were 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, and the balance Independent. That 7% 'swing', plus an 8% 'swing' for Independents accounted for Obama's margin of victory in 2008, but the 'swing' is definately against Obama at this time, especially since there is a 17% swing by Independents against Obama.
Current surveys put it at 36.0% Republican, 32.4% Democrat, and the balance Independent, which is an even greater swing in favor of the Republicans than in the mid-term elections of 2010. Anyone that thinks Obama will win in a landslide is smoking something illegal.
PS - Not all Republicans and Democrats vote 'party line', but it's pretty consistent that 90% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats DO vote 'party line' for President.
Also, isn't it interesting that the FR chose a photo of Romney that seems to show something in his mouth?
no president ever won with out Ohio in their pocket
Tex
As of 3 days ago, Rasmussen on it's monthly partisan trends found that those seeing themselves as "Republicans is 36%, Democrat 32.4% and independent 31.6%
In contrast in 2008 38% saw themselves as Democrat, 30.5% saw themselves as republican. In further contrast in 2010 Gallup survey showed Democrats 31%, Republicans 29%.
The Marist numbers skewed as I said. And there is no need for certification if you just simply do your homework like I do.
When taking polls at face value - you risk being made a fool of.
do you need any more "proof".
Well if Obama wins a second term it won’t be
because I didn’t do everything that I could to prevent that from happening.
Obama and this administration lie to us the American public every day. It has
become almost impossible to know what is true and what is not true. Spread the
truth. Obama and this administration prey on the uneducated and the uninformed.
Obama has become an artist at saying one thing and doing another. Obama has
been the worst most destructive president to Americans and what we believe in.
LETS LIGHT THE FIRE TO IGNITE A FREE AMERICA THAT
OUR FORFATHERS WOULD BE PROUD OF.
A FIRE THAT WOULD ENSURE THAT THE REPUBLIC STARTER
BY THE FOUNDERS OF THIS COUNTRY WILL LAST FOREVER.
A FIRE THAT WOULD LET OBAMA AND THOSE LIKE HIM
KNOW THAT WE DO NOT WANT TO LIVE IN A SOCIALIST COUNTRY.
ANYBODY BUT OBAMA 2012!!!
AMERICA IS DEPENDING ON US!!!
How EXACTLY do you randomly sample exactly X% Republicans and Y% Democrats? You've just demonstrated your complete lack of understanding not only of polling, but of mathematics. It's called a "weighted average." From a poll in which Republicans were oversampled;
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/17/us/how-the-poll-was-conducted.html
So let's see --- we have a flip flop former governor who is for and and for and against everything at the same time. If you ask him his favorite color, he would check with his consultants and handlers then tell you plaid. We have a former Speaker of the House who was kick out of office by his own people. We have a religious fanatic who was booted out of office by the people on PA by more than a 2 to 1 margin. Si I guess I have to ask ---- WHO CARES??? President Obama is going to win anyway.
Female republican voters, why do you continue voting for Santorum and Romney when you as women know they are lying about women's health and contraceptives? Doctors say that contraceptives have other health benefits for women, not just birth control, but all of the republican presidential candidates with no medical knowledge at all say every doctor is wrong and they are right. They are trying to hurt President Obama, but out of all the subjects they could have chosen to hurt President Obama with, they decided to attack women's health. You know the attack on women's health is not about religious freedom. This is just my own opinion, but voting for them when you know it will only hurt you, proves to them that you are as stupid as they think you are, that's why they attacked you in the first place.
John B, Des Moines, IA "Roy Wilson How EXACTLY do you randomly sample exactly X% Republicans and Y% Democrats?"
They base it on surveys - it's not 'random', but if a pollster uses old data for assigning percentages to Democrats, Republicans and Independents (or wants to 'skew' the results for purposes of bias), then their poll could have significant errors.
If DB Akron is correct about the percentages for party stats for the NBC/Marist Poll, then their likely error is huge - over 10%. That's tells me that NBC is likely making a conscious decision to skew polling to support Obama.
Whatever suits your confirmation bias, dude...
Ron Paul doesn't get mentioned again. There's a news blackout on him. Anyone can see it.
Too bad about your choice in candidates, but at some point you will have to face the fact that he has no chance.
Ah, yes, Ron Paul. The one who wants to dismantle the EPA, FDA, Department of Education, FCC, etc. etc.
Coming soon to an America near you - SOMALIA 2!
Huntsman was the best of them all, but the tea retards destroyed him as a Candidate just like what they are doing to the GOP. Save America and get the teapugs out of Congress.
Mary, I don't think ron is to worried as he keeps on getting his own delegate count up in prepeartion for the convention.
Boy, the so called FR LWNJ's sure do think that a POTUS has unlimited power. If elected Paul still has to work with congress. Since obama can't work with congress may paul or alternative can show mr obama how.
Paul has his eyes set on getting the right delegates for him. Basically having people for him get themselves elected as a delegate, go to the convention and vote for Paul, even if the rest of the State voted against him. This is why he says the caucuses are so important for him. Sounds kinda like a back door way in to the Presidency. It doesn't seem that it will work because he still has to get enough delegates from the primaries to offset the shortfall of delegates from caucuses, and he's struggling to get much in the way of primary delegates.
A vote for Santorum means the same old broken gov't for 4 more years. It would be 4 more years of the President fighting against Congress. If Paul won the nomination, Congress would vote against everything he wants to do, so another 4 years of broken gov't.
I personally think that many goverment orginizations shouls be replaced, bt even I think that ron paul is nuts. Even he said he has no chance of wining
Ron Paul is not Presidential material. He has a few good ideas but those ideas are not enough to make him electable. He would do fairly well as the Secretary of the Treasury though.
Ron Paul is the best person to be President... If you listen to him with an OPEN mind, you might realize that his plans make the most sense to take this country out of the whole that it is in.
american 205..... - President Obama knows how to work with a Congress that didn't state- from the first day of his presidency" that they would do everything they could to make him a one-term President. No one could work with a group intent on making our country fail. The GOP is responsible for the gridlock in DC and the intelligent people of this country realize it. Too bad you don't fall into that category.
If people would just read and go to real gov. sites for there info they would know this. Congress did all they could to push this man down. They did not care about us the people, only thing they wanted to do was hate the president of the USA. How sad. Vote them all out.
simpleman2008
Chucky1169469,
Have you read the articles in question or has the media made up your mind?
Why was this considered "Breaking News." Gimme a break.
After the disaster this nation has just gone through and with so many homeless due to the Tornado's... Politics, is furtherest from the minds of a great many people...
And many of them live in a so-called over rated super tuesday states.
"Santorum's Family values is Rush Limbaugh"
Amazing how the Heritage Foundation's answer to "Hillarycare" became "an unconstitutional government takeover of 1/6 of the economy" once it was adopted by a Democrat, isn't it?
There have been polls saying this for a week now. How about some real news?
The poll samplings are not matching the outcomes - hardly even close. Second thing the Romney negative adds appear to be working. Until Americans wake up and realize that they are playing fancy free with the facts we will condemn ourselves to still another deceiver.
Just have to wait until wednesday.
They're all deceivers, everyone of them. That's what the term "Politician" means, isn't it? The trick is to pick the least likely deceiver. That is why we always complain that we vote against others and not really for someone we like.
Are you talking about Dubya, Butch 1, or Reagan? Your right, they completely failed to do what they said they would do, like downsize the government, remember?
Middle class - you have been trained well. When politicians and political parties are behind in the numbers they often resort to a campaign based on confusions. That is why negative adds are so popular. They give you enough real looking facts and their interpretation of those facts - minus the full context to confuse voters, make them doubt their choice, all in a time frame long enough to reach many and short enough that those who want to research that facts can't.
The concept is to get you to "not see the forests, because of the trees." We need to see the forest to make the correct decision.
I would say ignore any last minute slams on any candidate, especially when they are done in a carpet bombing style. That is a pretty good indicator there is a lack of truth to the message.
As most of us alredy know, Mitt Romney will be the Great GOP Nominee and will go on to be our next, and best President for the following eight years
Huh? Joseph, are you seeing what everyone else is seeing?
Joseph, can I have some of your meds? I sure would like to dream the impossible also.
Hey, it's Meee:
What you and everyone else is seeing are cooked numbers....to understand how NBC/Marist came up with these results you have to look at the internals. And far down the list on the questions asked is the question of political affiliation. 50% of the respondents consider themselves Democrats or lean Democrat...only 35% consider themselves or lean Republican, with 14% independent. So it's a rigged survey sample...typical of NBC and Marist, Obama media sycophants. None of these numbers represent reality....plain and simple.
coe, it's not just that one poll...it's all of them.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73305.html
First of all you are comparing national polls to two specific state polls, apples vs oranges, all though there could be some relevance. The Real Clear average has the community organizer up over Romney by 4.8%, in or close to the margin of error. Bottom line...it's a going to be a tight race. The bigger point is NBC/Marist......I never, ever rely on them for accurate information, as it is in this case. They have the Reverend Wright disciple winning by 12 and 17 points in Ohio and Virginia...as compared to the national average of 4.8%. Really..???? They cook the numbers and therefore are unworthy of any consideration regarding accuracy....they are no better than propagandists.
Joseph.... you must watch too much Faux News! Romney against Obama is going to be the most entertaining campaign in history. Romney has no plans for anything... he just says what he will do, not how he will do it. He reminds me of McPalin in 2008 campaign. Lots for words with no substance.
Due to the comic antics of the clowns who have misrepresenting themselves as potential challengers to our President, the only thing the primaries are going to determine is who gets the privilege of losing against President Obama in November.
Joseph - Obama has set the stage for anyone who is potus come 2013 to have a very tough row to hoe. Thanks for your optimism.
Mr. American (joking, right?)
And how did you come up with your weak opinion? Are you missing a few years there and really thinking about what was turned over to Obama in 2008. Just making up lies does not improve the chances in hell that a Retardican can beat the President of the United States in anything.
IF Mitt wins Ohio, AND Gingrich to stubbornly stay in the race, Mitt will be at minimum the leader going into the convention, but unlikely to clinch the nomination before the convention, even with a deal with Ron Paul.
Right now, the best projection I've seen come from Dave Leip's site.
Romney is 660 Delegates (have him at 544)
Santorum is 461 ( a jump from last week even - I have him at 464)
Gingrich is 268 (I have him at 244)
with 900 un-polled Delegate states. 3 of those states are in super tuesday.
What Romney needs to do is add Ohio to Massachusetts, Virginia, and Vermont (not a sure thing actually), finish 2nd in Georgia (latest polls indicate that is possible) AND win 1 or more of the unpolled 3 states - (Romney won the trial straw poll in January).
What Gingrich needs to do is Win Georgia, Ohio (unlikely), Tennesse (unlikely), Oklahoma (unlikely) and at least 1 of the unknown states (possible). Gingrich only has 4 or 5 more states he leads in almost all in the south.
What Santorum needs to do is win Ohio (ahead by a nose), win Tennessee (good lead), win Oklahoma (good lead), finish second in Georgia (possible but apparently down 2 on that one), and win 1 of the three unpolled states. Even if Santorum fails to win Ohio (Romney has a shot at this, but not Gingrich) he still holds leads in Texas, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Following Super Tuesday, Gingrich should suspend his campaign and support Santorum. If he does so, Santorum will be not only take the 4 or 5 states Gingrich should win in but, that support should vault Santorum past Romney in California, and make him competitive in New Jersey, and New York.
With Gingrich out Santorum would be at 800 Delegates and would only need 344 of the unpolled 900 delegates.
The Republican Leadership is nuts if it wants a brokered convention. When no winner has been declared on the first Ballot all delegates are released to vote for whomever they choose. Ron Paul has been working very successfully on getting delegates nominated that are Paul supporters. He is betting on a brokered convention for his chance to win the nomination in a political coup.
Tex2c2 actually the logic is easy to follow once you look at it...
Recessions occur in cycles with no politician or economist having the ability to avoid them.
It was obama who said he could lead the way out of the reccession. Laying blame on another is not what we expect a POTUS to do. We expect a path forward, not excuses.
These two are just preliminary... now follow some specifics...
Obama choose not to find a way to work with and unify congress or even the American populace.
2012 is a presidential election year, you don't really think that congress and the WH will do much other than campaign do you?
With a weak recovery, think the following won't affect it?
The obama (bush) tax cuts expire in January 2013.
The payroll tax cuts and unemployment extensions expire jan 2013.
Our congress and obama refuse to address deficit spending. aka lets just raise the debt ceiling.
Getting the picture? A lot of shlt got kicked down the road and is coming due at the same time, won't be pretty for any POTUS to handle.
To think I left out international affairs that are also likely to break in the next 12 months. Where are the lies?
Santorum had a real shot until he reverted back to the days of the Salem Witch trials..
He probably lost a sizable number of voters by wearing that awful sweater vest.
OK WTH!!!!! When has he persecuted anyone! He wants it so that employers could opt out of paying for someones birth control, SO WHAT?!?!?! He said not everyone needs to go too colledge, there are many billionares that dropped out or never even went. Einstien said that the thing that most got in his way was and education.
So, Trent, let's get this straight. Are you proposing that we end education? You have now joined the mullahs.
Santorum scares the life out of me. I do not want a preacher, any preacher leading our country, seperation of church and state must remain. Nor do I want a woman hater. The man is all wrong in so many ways.
This does not surprise me since ohioans are really not that smrt
I'm from Ohio, and I can spell "smart".
Sorry, RDF, that is not quite enough. Take a little vacation and then go back and try school again.
"Ohioans are not smart because Gary lives in Ohio"
I thought Gary was in Indiana? Drrrrrrrrrrr
Go away!!!!!
@ Joseph - Weekend drinking always leads to delusions.
Jeff,
On the high end, I suggest you go back to Forbes richest 400 and compare the list over the last 4 years. Identify who are the ones with the real money. If you do so honestly, you will find that Democrats are getting richer while most republicans are getting poorer. Those that are getting richer are benefiting from either Obama alternate energy giveaways, environmental equipment (Koch brothers), and Energy Policies (less pipeline benefits Warren Buffet who owns the railroads.
Where you are seeing the 8% increase in millionaires is famers in the plains states that have given permission to petroleum drillers to drill. This is people who were in line to lose their farms and now are millionaires becaue of Barack Obama's policies that are suppressing our ability to transport oil and the big companies to drill off-shore and on government lands. The government land is really silly, becaused the fed gets royalties from any finds on government land.
No, DB, what you are seeing is that the majority of Democrats are EDUCATED, while the majority of Republicans are NOT! That is how the RNC gets them to support a system that gives their lives fewer options.
You have hit on the main issue at the heart of the Republcian strategy since Nixon. Convince the uneducated that the most important issues are same-sex marriage and the right to kill bears at will.
well tex, if the majority of democrats are educated why are they so stupid when it comes to sustainable economic policies? Or so gullable to realize that obama's rhetoric, like most politicians, is oriented towards buying votes?
Book learning just makes it easier for the true inovators to hire them to do the repetitive tasks.
This is breaking news, LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.................................
shouldn't it be LOLLOLLOLLOLL?????
Washington State overwhelmingly picks Romney 1st, Ron Paul 2nd, Tricky Ricky 3rd, & Newt last. The Romney Train is gathering speed and it’s steamrolling over Obama right to the White House. On Tuesday there will be a long pit stop in Ohio. Now’s the time to jump on board, there’s plenty of room. Let’s make sure Obama hears the loud roar of the locomotive and feels the shaking under his feet. This is his worst nightmare: Romney vs Obama, the only match up he knows he can’t win. Let’s unite now & show the media we will not let this divisive campaign deter our ultimate goal of beating Obama now.
ROMNEY/RUBIO 2012 & 2016
Romney vs Obama polls - click to view
backfire, Mitt maybe ahead, by all they did was pick delegates to the state convention. No one has won anything yet in WA state.
Its gonna be lonely on that train my friend. Keep dreaming.
Makes my point. Romney polls the highest against Obama. And if the GOP can get its act together, nominate Romney. The polls will change dramatically, because it's a Romney vs Obama one on one.
This is Obama's worse nightmare. Evident by all the anti-Romney PAC attack ads (notice he's not attacking anyone else), Big Union money with anti-Romney attack ads, Media Matters hit pieces scattered through the media all attacking Romney. Barack would love nothing more than to face Tricky Ricky.
Dateline Nov 6, 2012 ROMNEY BEATS OBAMA in Landslide
LOL.... Romney is Obama's worst nightmare? Romney debates like a 5yr old child making excuses to their mommy! I would love to see Romney debate Obama :-) Old wooden man would fail miserably.... I hope he is the Repugnut nominee. Getting my popcorn ready!
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012!!!!
No Republican will beat Obama. It's time you face the truth.
They're in denial. If, after this disastrous primary race, the right wing lunatic fringe is unable to face the sad fact their hateful political ideology has failed miserably, nothing will change their minds until President Obama wins again by another landslide in November. Reality is not a kind thing to teabaggers.
Good thing primary campaign strategy and debates are different from the national (all the marbles) events. Silly lefties, the right will be the real winners after nov 2012 going forward. Obama screwed the pooch in 2009-2011.
OMG 2012 Obama Must Go!
I guess you're right, Sailcat...they're in denial.
Prove how President Obama's ECONOMIC polocies are better than conservative ECONOMIC polocies.
You do realize that the Washington caucus votes are non-binding? Sort of like everything Romney says, he always reserves the right to change his answers whenever it suits him.
@backfire- Romney has barely won in most of the caucuses. You realize that if just one of the other candidates quits and gives their support to a candidate other than Romney, Romney loses the nomination?
Lokk at the Washington state results. Paul came in 2nd and the Newtster barely made double digits.
The christian thugs cannot attract moderates.
No william - it is a caucus which only Ron Paul really emphacized and focused on the last week. Newt spent almost no time. Romney and Santorum did not emphacise Washington but spent much more time than Newt. Then of course, Romney and his Super Packs carpet bombed Washington with negative INACCURATE adds and Robo calls for over a week, just like he is doing here in Ohio.
Ohio has an abundance of religious fanatics so sanitarium has a good chance there.
"Some say the GOP TeaPugs in Ohio are like Rush"
Ohio also has an informed populace, many are hurting economically. They will realize our first and foremost priority, BEAT OBAMA. They will come to their senses on Tuesday and vote for the only candidate that can:
ROMNEY
Don't be so sure of that. The GOP in OH has pissed off many voters with their state legislature/governor actions. They may find themselves in deep trouble in all "up for election" offices, local/state/federal. This may be the year that Boehner even gets thrown out of office. One can only hope for that and I sure do. As a GDI, if I still lived in OH, I would definitely vote against any republican running for office in 2012 (and probably even some of the democrats.)
Santorum is an idiot.....but that's hard to see when compared to newt the coot. After they are kicked to the curb by the voters, which is happening daily, maybe a song and dance duo would be their calling.
Santorum is an angry, mean spirited dope that the people of PA saw through and ousted. Now he's trying to fool those outside his state. A lot of repubs lost that year you're saying??? Yes.........lots and lots of them did but.......rick had the biggest margin of loss of any of them. He's outstanding so to speak. LOL
Yep, the GOP lost a bunch that year, and this coming election will be a repeat of it. Who, outside of the bible thumpers, haven't the pugbags pissed off? All minoritys, all independent women and their husbands, even their own GOP members.
Yep, go for it Mitt, and become like McCain, a grumpy loser. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
I sure hope our friends next door to us don't get fooled by Santorum like we did. We in Pa dumped him as a senator and sure don't want him in the White House. Lets stick together on this friends.
Hitler blame Germany's bad economy on the Jews...The republicans blame the bad economy on the democrats..do you see the difference people
"All propaganda must be popular and its intellectual level must be adjusted to the most limited intelligence among those it is addressed to". ~ Adolph Hitler
That is a perfect quote for this year's political season.
The media is doing Romney a favor. If his support sees it's a close battle, they will show up at the polls. The worst thing for a candidate is to have polls saying he's way out in front. The voter tends to think it's a done deal and stay home.
Buckeyes approve of Obama 45%? You're kidding right? Print what you will this state will be voting Republican come November. Romney shot himself in the foot by siding with the Gov here on SB 5, wanting to eliminate unions and collective bargaining for government employees. I can't say I would never vote for Romney, because I may end up having to vote for him in November. As for Obama, the national debt clock will probably be at $17T by then. But these candidates are pitiful. The RNC need to wake up and put up some viable candidates in the future.
Edball, why are you so worried about the deficit? VP Cheney said they didn't matter. If the deficit didn't matter when the GOP was in charge, why does it matter when the Demo's are in charge? Care to answer that?
"I'm not worried about the deficit. It's big enough to take care of itself." - Ronald Reagan
Repubs supported tax cuts for the wealthy, carrying on two wars simultaneously while borrowing the momey from the Chinese to pay for them, a huge Medicare Part D to enrich the pharmaceutical companies without paying for it and VP Cheney said the "deficits don't matter".
The most important fact in both polls is that Obama leads all Republicans in both states. In all electoral college maps both Ohio and Virginia are rated as tossups. With Obama already at 227 electoral votes and these states potentially in his column he is almost there. The Republicans have their work cut out for them if they are going to beat this President.
Then TEAM UP and start campaigning together! This nation is going to hell in a hand basket! We need Christians in charge - no - REAL Christians - the God-believing, fearing, worshiping kind of Christians - not the Islamic Christian sitting in the Oval office today.
Print those signs boys! Get 'em out there!
Mackie, if I wanted REAL Christians in my womb, I would screw one. And that will never happen.
Mackie, part of being President is representing all of the people. Not just one segment (Christians). The problem with religious fanatics being in charge is the minority - non Christians are persecuted because of course as you all know, Jesus Christ is the light and the way to Heaven. (Barf) Therefore all others MUST live the way Christians do. Right? WRONG! The USA is a melting pot of different cultures and beliefs. Separation of CHURCH AND STATE is paramount to the fair treatment of ALL Religions - and non-religious people.
LOL christians?? the last thing we need are more so called, self proclaimed "christians" in office. you are the american taliban Jimi see u use Ahmed the terrorist as your photo. you are a christofascist just as Ahmed is a Islamofascist. religion is corrupting the US and causing it to lose it's freedom and respect for others. it is inherently interpreted as selfish instead of following the spirit of JC or any spiritual leader. keep your twisted belief system to yourself n in your church. just BE, ACT like a compassionate person.
An Islamic Christian ? Isn't that an oxy - moron?
Mackie,,,,, REALLy!!! Can you read? If so, do it..... Like him or not, lies are lies.
We have a real Christian in President Obama, but the office does not require a Christian. It really requires someone hardworking, dedicated, willing to be fair and honest, someone who will compromise for the good of the nation. President Obama is that man. The GOP has no one who has a solution, a plan, an idea that is for the good of all. President Obama is fighting for the middle class and he is fighting for jobs.
Obama may not even need to spend any money to get reelected again this year. I can't believe how easy the GOP is going to make this to get him reelected. They're cutting off their nose to spite their face.
@Leo the only map I need to look at is Obama's votes as broken down by counties in the last election, sure he won the big cities across this nation, but he failed to take the rural areas, and that was all based on the "hope and change" thingy. But now we have mandated national health care forced upon us, that our elected officials in Congress failed to read before voting on, the Feds printing money like there's no tomorrow, a break down in energy policies, states on the verge of being bankrupt, inflation at 3.6% last year, and currently at 2.9% this year based on CPI figures, a near zero interest rates on savings & checking, people struggling to refinance their homes because the banks won't refinance, gas prices that will increase the price of food and commodities as they come to market, a lame duck session in Congress that can't agree on the time of day, active duty service members getting pink slips and sent home late in their careers but don't qualify for retirement, senior citizens choosing between medicine and groceries based on a limited income and increasing cost of medical care, and on top of all this bowing down to foreign leaders and stumbling over himself with apologies, I fail to see how this is leadership. Maybe for a community organizer it might seem appropriate, but for a true leader of a World Power, don't insult the sacrifices I've made over 20 years serving my nation. If Obama does win the General election, then those of you that voted for him will have the wrath of this nation upon you and another lame duck Congress and we'll go back to finding it hard to find someone that will admit voting for him.
Edball, maybe yes, maybe no, but come election day we will know if you are correct, or incorrect. A lot can happen between now and then. And if President Obama does take action against Iran, will the pugbags be claiming he's "waggin the tail of the dog." BS like they did with Clinton?
I think the point nearly everyone is overlooking is Virginia. The latest poll has Obama with at least a 17% lead there. Obama carried Virginia in 2008, but before that the last Democrat to carry Virginia was LBJ in 1964. If Obama takes Virginia again, we could be seeing signs of a change in the political landscape. Such political re-alignments typically happen in our country every 30 to 40 years (1828, 1860, 1896, 1932, 1969). This could have dire implications for the Republicans for a long time.
The ones who 'overlooked' Virginia are Tricky Ricky & Newt Skywalker.
Dateline Nav 6, 2012 : Romney Beats Obama in Landslide despite how we tried our best to help him in the media
It's really heartening to see Obama leading in Virginia. In large part he owes it to the 65000 volt flashing neon red state house here. They are in a hurry to pass every foaming at the mouth right wing nut job bill that they can come up with and its turning the middle more and more blue.
Backfire,
Read a history book. I am not talking about how Santorum or Gringrich are doing in Virginia. I am talking about what political scientists call "critical elections." Those are elections that change the way Americans vote. They usually occur every 30 to 40 years. They happened in 1824, 1860, 1896, 1932 and 1968. The last critical election was in 1968.
You should read Kevin Phillips' book, the Emerging Republican Majority. This book, which was published in 1969, talked argued that the riots, assassinations and general turmoil of the 1960s convinced Independent voters (and some Democrats) to start voting for Republican candidates. We may be seeing a reversal happening. The extreme conservative position of the Republican party may be causing independent voters (and some Republicans) to start voting for Democratic candidates. Virginia may be an example.
"Santorum wants Church & State to be a Union, this would be very dangerous-this guy is scary"
Aman
Marty, the GOP shot themselves in the foot with the vaginal probe law, and lost most if not all of the women's vote there. Why they are handing Obama his second term makes a person wonder. Do they finally realize their policies don't work? The "trickle down" that really trickled up, and what trickled down was the golden shower on the middle class and poor. I don't think any of them will be voting for the pugbags.
SallyAnn you're absolutely right, lot's could happen between now and then. As in the International Atomic Energy Agency quarterly reports. The last one published ten days ago stated: “The agency continues to have serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program,” and “Iran has produced nearly 110kg of uranium enriched to 20 percent since early 2010. Western experts say about 250 kg is needed for a nuclear weapon.” The report also pointed out that “Iran is shifting the most sensitive aspect of its nuclear work, refining uranium to a level that takes it significantly closer to potential bomb material, to the site.” I sure hope my theory is wrong, but at this point not looking good.