2012: Romney wins non-binding WY straw poll

John Harwood writes in the New York Times: “This is the presidential primary campaign that political polarization has wrought. In recent decades, the Democratic Party has purged its conservatives and the Republican Party its liberals, leaving each almost politically homogenous. As a result, the first Republican presidential primary in the Tea Party era lacks the straightforward ideological cleavages of earlier contests.”

GINGRICH: “Traveling from hangar to gymnasium to Statehouse, and buoyed by a fresh infusion of super-PAC cash from billionaire Sheldon Adelson, Gingrich predicted a rout on March 6, when 11 states hold primaries,” Bloomberg writes. “He told the Associated Press yesterday that he will win Georgia, which has more delegates at stake than any other Super Tuesday state, ‘and win it decisively.’” But the story notes that it might not be locked up for Gingrich, who hasn’t lived in the state for years.

ROMNEY: The Boston Globe: “Amid confusion, Mitt Romney says he does support Blunt amendment.” And it makes this point: “Still, his confusion could spark controversy that the former Massachusetts governor – already distrusted by some conservatives – is not well versed enough in issues they hold dear.”

Bloomberg: “Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney, shifting his attention to Ohio after twin primary wins, was distracted from his economic message by confusion he created over his stance on a contraception issue.” And: “The dust-up -- however brief -- reflected pervasive doubts many Republican rank-and-file voters have about Romney’s positions on social issues.”

The Wyoming Republican Party announced tonight that Mitt Romney has won the state’s non-binding precinct straw poll with 39 percent of the vote, a 7 point margin over runner-up Rick Santorum. Santorum came in second with 32 percent followed by Ron Paul with 21 percent and Newt Gingrich with 8 percent, NBC’s John Bailey reports. The non-binding poll was conducted at Wyoming precinct caucuses, held over a stretch of weeks between February 9 and February 29. The poll does not bind Wyoming’s delegates, but it is an indicator of how the state may vote in its upcoming County Conventions (March 6 to March 10) and State Convention (April 12 to April 14) where 26 of Wyoming’s 29 delegates will be bound. Take note that only 2,108 Wyoming Republicans participated in the poll.

Political Wire’s headline: “Romney Wins in Wyoming.”

The Washington Post: “Mitt Romney wins Wyoming caucuses.”

Money trouble? “Mitt Romney’s once bulging war chest suddenly looks a lot lighter after the costly primary battle in Michigan,” the New York Post writes. “Romney yesterday bypassed his usual deep-pocketed moneymen to hit up small-time online donors for some quick campaign cash, warning that he needs money fast to fight President Obama’s ‘kill Romney’ strategy. Coming after his narrow victory in Michigan on Tuesday, the ad signaled that Romney is bracing for an expensive state-by-state battle from Super Tuesday next week to the party convention in August. His campaign burned though $12.2 million last month while collecting just $7 million. He also has to worry about his big donors maxing out early in what has become an unexpectedly long race to the nomination.”

SANTORUM: Oops. “Rick Santorum is touting the support of Sen. James Inhofe (R) even though the Oklahoma senator has not endorsed him,” The Hill reports. A spokesman for the Oklahoma senator confirmed Inhofe hasn’t endorsed him, but the Santorum campaign is doubling down, claiming that positive things Inhofe has said about Santorum equates to “support.” "I would consider that support, however you look at it," Santorum campaign adviser John Brabender said. Oklahoma is a Super Tuesday state.

The Hill has this headline: “Santorum let his moment come, then go.” From the story: “Santorum’s loss has raised new questions about his tactics in Michigan in particular, and his vulnerabilities as a candidate more generally.”

Discuss this post

Looking ahead to Super Tuesday:

You can probably chalk up Massachusetts and Vermont in the Romney column right now. He's also likely to "win" Washington this weekend, but that's a non-binding caucus, so I'm sure Ron Paul will be there with his delegate chicanery.

Two biggest states on Tuesday are Georgia and Ohio. Can Gingrich win Georgia? Can Santorum win Ohio? They need to if they want to avoid the impression that Romney's nomination is now inevitable. He made his stand in Michigan, and now it's their turn on the hot seat. They'll have a better chance if they stay out of each others way. Ohio is the kind of state Santorum says he can win in the general election, and that claim falls apart if he can't even win it in a primary.

There are two other Southern states going, Oklahoma and Tennessee. These are states where either Santorum or Gingrich running one on one against Romney could win, but if there's no clear favorite there, they may split the vote and hand the states to Romney. With the momentum swing against Santorum, another Gingrich surge is possible, but he's focused on Georgia and may not have the resources to campaign across the South effectively.

There are also three binding caucuses where Ron Paul may do better than usual, but can't play his usual delegate games. Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota. With Santorum weakened and needing to focus on Ohio, those are probably Romney's for the picking. If Santorum or someone else manages to win one or two, then it shows that Romney's front runner status is still very weak. Ron Paul may be able to make a stand in these states, but if he doesn't then it figures to be a very bad night for his campaign, and they may be focusing more on smaller, non-binding caucuses that precede and follow Super Tuesday instead.

Finally, there's Virginia. Santorum and Gingrich are not on the ballot, making this essentially a 1 on 1: Romney vs. Paul. I'm expecting a huge blowout win there for Romney, Virginia being the national hotbed for rich lobbyists and political establishment types.

Bottom line: Romney can't really have a bad night, but he needs a great one to create the narrative that he's put this nomination effectively to bed. The other candidates cannot "win" Super Tuesday, but they can do well enough to prolong the fight.

    Reply#1 - Thu Mar 1, 2012 10:37 AM EST

    Wow, I think this is the most positive headline I've ever seen First Read publish about Romney! But then I read the actual story.

    • 2 votes
    Reply#2 - Thu Mar 1, 2012 11:04 AM EST
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