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Susan Walsh / AP
President Barack Obama speaks before the National Governors Association, Monday, Feb. 27, 2012, in the State Dining Room of the White House.
The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Arizona was 16 years ago, when Bill Clinton carried it in 1996.
The time before that? More than half a century ago, when Harry Truman won the state.
But as Republicans compete in their own primary there today, President Barack Obama's re-election team also has its eye on Arizona, a state where a growing Hispanic electorate and a deep divide on immigration policy could potentially help the president collect a much-needed 11 electoral votes in November.
A win there would be a reach, however. A recent NBC/Marist poll put Obama's approval rating in the state below 40%, and it showed him trailing most of the Republican presidential candidates there.
While Obama -- who didn't contest Arizona four years ago -- lost it by eight percentage points in 2008, his team believes that Sen. John McCain's less-than-double-digit victory in his own home state did much to lay bare Republicans' vulnerability there.
And, four years later, Obama's opponent is likely to face a much harsher reception from the state's growing Latino electorate than McCain, whose push for comprehensive immigration reform nearly derailed his candidacy early in the GOP primary.
From vows to veto the DREAM Act to heavy courtship of controversial endorsers like Arizona's Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, GOP candidates' language on immigration has prompted public worry from Republican Hispanic groups as well as from party leaders like former Gov. Jeb Bush.
In Arizona, which became ground zero for the immigration debate after its 2010 passage of legislation that would give police broad authority to detain suspected illegal residents, Democrats have a favorite noun to describe Republican rhetoric on the matter.
"Overreach."
"I can't underscore enough our sense on the ground is that Republicans have overplayed their hand in terms of rhetoric and legislating immigration law," says Phoenix-based Democratic strategist Barry Dill. "And there's a backlash."
Those working to turn the state blue were thrilled to hear Mitt Romney call Arizona's stringent SB 1070 immigration measure "a model" for the nation's policies during a Feb. 22 debate in Mesa. They believe that kind of language -- underscored by Romney's endorsement on Sunday by Gov. Jan Brewer, who signed the bill into law -- could further mobilize Arizona voters looking for more moderate solutions to the immigration issue.
Harnessing that feeling on the ground will be the task of the campaign's substantial Arizona field operation.
The re-election campaign has three field offices already in Arizona -- in Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff -- and another set to open in heavily Hispanic Glendale in the coming weeks. The campaign says that staff and volunteers have held almost 500 voter registration sessions and more than 200 phone banks since the spring. Much of that effort is focused on the Hispanic community, with events held at Hispanic supermarkets and weekly Spanish- and English-language phone banks targeting Latinos. The campaign recently hired a Mexican-American regional field director.
While Team Obama hasn't yet invested in paid media there, the DNC has aired TV advertisements, including a six-day anti-Romney buy last year.
With the number of voting age Hispanic citizens growing by a whopping 85% last decade, per Census data, the benefits of such a focus are obvious. But the lift may still prove to be a heavy one.
The NBC/Marist Arizona survey this month also found that 51% of Hispanics approve of the president's performance, with 34% disapproving and 15% unsure.
Compare that to the 2008 numbers: Obama won 56% of the Latino vote in Arizona compared to McCain's 41%.
Luis Heredia, the executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, estimates that Obama would have to boost that number to at least 65% in November to get over the finish line.
And Dill, who served as deputy state director for the Clinton/Gore win in 1996, puts that number even higher, at 68%.
He added that Democrats must be careful in 2012 to tailor their message to a diverse Hispanic community, saying that the party stumbled in past elections by treating the group as a single monolithic block.
"A big part of it had been our fault as campaign managers, as leaders," Dill said. "We had sort of homogenized the Hispanic community in Arizona into one group. And they're not, they're very diverse."
This year, Democrats say there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic.
Obama's team points to Democrats' double-digit mayoral victories in Tucson and Phoenix last year as well as the recall of Arizona State Senate president and author of SB 1070.
And Heredia adds that downballot races, like the one to replace retiring Rep. Gabby Giffords, will help build excitement for activists locally.
"I gain more and more confidence every day," he said.
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WTF is "Team Obama"? Is Arizona in play? Of Hell No! We don't like the HNIC much here.
In fact, here's a little ditty that sums up our opinion of the Great Chosen One:
Mr. foodstamp, bring me a dream
(Bung, bung, bung, bung)
Give me a pension like I've ever seen
(Bung, bung, bung, bung)
Give me the money to roll in the clover
(Bung, bung, bung, bung)
Then tell me that workin' days are over
Mr foodstamp, I'm just so done
Don't have money for cola or beer
Please turn on your magic beam
Mr. foodstamp, give me a dream
Bung, bung, bung, bung
Mr. foodstamp, I need dream
go find a fatcat and get me his dough
Give him the word that I'm not a worker
Then tell him that his leisure nights are over
Mr Foodstamp, I'm so alone
Don't have no money to call my own
Please turn on your magic beam
Mr. foodstamp, bring me some dough
Bung, bung, bung, bung
With my sincere apologies to the Chordettes for butchering "mr Sandman" to make my point.
Arizona if it wants to elect a Jan Brewer and thinks either Romney or Santorum is the right person to lead the country is like the deep south to me. Pretend ideas with pretend candidates are what these people live for. Bachman, Palin, Perry, Cain and now the Mittster and Rick the religious one are a joke. Thanks Arizona for the laughs.
Obama could very well win Arizona. If he gets the women's vote (highly likely unless the GOP changes their tactics on things like abortion and contraception), if he gets a large labor vote, if he gets the hispanic and black vote, and if he gets seniors (who are afraid of what the GOP wants to do to Medicare), he very well might win.
And that is a formula that will operate in every state in the country, Ron. The GOP is a party of exclusion, not inclusion, and that is not a strategy that wins elections.
a little clarity for you ron on the medicare. What the GOP wants to do with it is save it. Fact - according to the CBO - medicare will be completely insolvent by 2020 AT THE LATEST. The Ryan plan - which obama and reid refused to even look at excludes no one and in fact if your within 10 years of eligability NOTHING changes for you - your grandfathered in under the old system. The democrats plan to deal with medicare? absolutley nothing EXCEPT under obamacare - they have already cut 500 million out of medicare. Why dont you obama syncophants ever brush up on the facts before you post?
Ron, "if he gets a large labor vote..."
You realize that we are talking about Arizona right?
To all the liberal socialist communists out there, maybe you could send some money to pay back the $700 million dollars a year Arizona spends on JUST MEDICAL CARE just for illegals! as far as democratic inroads in Arizona i can just pray we have enough patriotic Americans left in AZ to offset the illegal vote, Your great change andf hope guy, is ruling by executive order and says he will by pass the contitutional form of government if elected by using executive order, the one good thing about executive order when the republican president takes the oath his first act will be to rescind all the unconstitutional or leftist executive order made by Obamma(intentional)!
It is correct that the people that should be most upset are the legal immigrants who(some I have spoken to waited up to 10 yrs for approval)and to become citizens, what you idiot leftist liberal communist don"t iunderstand is there is an insurgent low intensity conflict in Mexico, there is no functional government and the cartels are linking up with al quiad and other muslim terrorist groups to smuggle sleeper cells into the US!
solutions to our economic woes, allow day workers to come across border and bus them to the fields and then bus them back to the border each evening, if they don't come get on the bus in the evening and are caught they lose the privilege of picking our produce for 1 yr, caught 2nd time lose priv for 5yrs and restrict immigration in future! collect the taxes without fica to help defray cost of transporting them to fields etc. Not eligible for SS! Pay into the system stop sucking the sociual system dry! stop using the emergency rooms as personal out patient clinics, hospitals are going out of business because public hospitals can not turn away uninsured illegals, go to any emergency room in any city and see how many foreign speaking people are there(99% illegals)!
figure the $700million a yr in medical cost for illegals multiple some amount x's 50 states and it would be enough to pay the national debt.
here is the solution only acceptable way out for illegals to stay, first stop the wet foot dry foot that was to aid cubans but illegals of spanish and god who knows, chinese, middle eastern origin, etc are buying passage and the cuban government is allowin an island off mainland cuba to be used to smuggle people into florida knowing the wet foot dry foot policy of granting asylum to those arriving! Terrorists among them! build the rest of the border fence, only please weld the metal panels so the drug smugglers can't (like i just saw in a video) jack up the panel send their mules with drugs under the 3 or 4 foot space adn then wpe tracks away so border patrol on americna side cant tell. Deport the illegals in custody ands continue deportations and after a while the numbers will come dawn. The illegal population did not happen over night so, it took 20 or 30 yrs to get out of hand and amnesty only allowed another 18 to 20 million to accumulate, so it will take 10 or 15 yrs of attrition to remove them! once we have our national border secure. we can address those that are here and give them a choice, face deportation or step forward ages from 18 thru 35 walk into any recruiting office sign up for 4 yrs service, serve 4 yrs HONORABLE service, learn at least a 5th grade English capability, learn all the answers on citizenship test and give up whatever other citizenship, after the four years stamp their green card and swear them in as citizens, those from 36 up to 65, step forward and serve 4 yrs in some form of public sector, rebuild national parks, clear the forests of dangerous under brush, rebuild inner city homes, help rebuild or repair homes for elderly or homeless pay them a living wage min wage is outrageous at $7.50 an hr but ok pay them that, they serve 4 yrs learn a 5th grade language ability, be able to answer and know all the questions on citizenship exam and give up citizenship of previous country they do that stamp their papers and swear them in as citizens! thsi is an acceptable solution to the problem!
Unfortunately the democrats want the votes so they will allow illegals to vote, thye have done this for many years, the two democratic machines the daly machine of old used to drag the drunks out of the bars pay them some money and every time they voted at each precinct they were paid, if you lived in a democrat neighborhood and you went to your democrat aldr amn or princt person, and you need coal or maybe some money you were sworn to vote democrat your family and your children and grandchildren etc all would be paid or given coal or whatever to get by as long as they voted democrat! the same as the Connell machine in Albany NY, what other city could say they had a democrat mayor for 46 years, Euratis Corning a democrat stayed in power for 46 yrs, patrronage jobs were handed out, plentifully, appointments to positons were given as rewards, Albany along with other Democrat strongholds even had numerous dead people vote 2 or 3 even 5 times, it got so bad NY State law says you can not have bar open on election day, to prevent the democrats from recruiting voters......
so all the patriots out there pray for the republicans and Jna brewer and my hero Joe ARpaio, keep the US safe and secure vote out the democrat scoialists, liberal communist, and give the sate back to the LEGAL immigrants and Americans!
This article as well as many people posting on this cite once again show their racism and prejudice by attempting to divide the American people along ethnic and racial lines, the latino vote, the hispanic vote, I hope that whoever the republican nominee is will not trend along these lines but will instead talk about the American vote.
Unfortunately the issue of illegal immigration is in the fore front in Arizona, the state is attempting to uphold their responsibility under the Constitution of the United States by enforcing the immigration laws and the Federal government under president obama and attorney general holder are doing everything in their power to ignore the immigration laws and the Constitution of the United States of America by filing a law suite against the State of Arizona.
Article I, Section 8, of the Constitution of the United States of America gives Congress the power....; "To establish a uniform rule of naturalization, and......."; Further on it gives Congress the right "To make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the foregoing powers, and all other powers vested by this Constitution in the government of the United States or in any department or officer thereof".
Article VI is very clear that it is required by "The Senators and Representatives before mentioned, and the members of the several state legislatures, and all executive and judicial officers, both of the United States and of the several states, shall be bound by oath or affirmation, to support this Constitution;.....:
As to the issue of illegal immigration the above language in the Constitution of the United States of America not only gives the rights but requires the states and all State and Federal judges to enforce Federal immigration laws of this country.
I do not see any way that the Supreme Court could uphold the law suite implemented by president obama and attorney general holder.
This election should be about whether we are a nation of citizens bound by the Constitution of the United States of America or just a bunch of separate groups of people based on race and ethnicity.
So the governor is wrong for attempting to enforce immigration laws which the feds will not enforce?
It's all part of the Obama special interest vote buying machine. Today's target is Hispanics, yesterdays was the unions.
Obama will not enforce the immigration laws, will fight any voter ID laws (so you can vote for him even if you are not a citizen). So, all you illegals, come on over the border and enjoy all the welfare you can apply for and we may even be able to sneak you in to vote. Unless those racist republicans succeed in making you prove that you are eligible to vote.
What the heck. What's a few billion extra in welfare compared to the couple of trillion debt we are running up already. Obama doesn't care. He has an election to buy and a bunch of willing tax consumers who will vote for him.
Add in a bunch of idiot sheeple who somehow think it's Ok to selectively enforce laws like immigration and voila, Arizona may be in play.
Obama will not enforce immigration law? Perhaps if you could get over your irrationality you could appreciate this quote from Reuters:
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama says he backs immigration reform, announcing last month an initiative to ease deportation policies, but he has sent home over 1 million illegal immigrants in 2-1/2 years -- on pace to deport more in one term than George W. Bush did in two.
polysciprof assuming that you are correct that president obama has deported more in 2-1/2 years than president bush did in two you fail to realize the irony in the fact that if president obama gets his way to legalize the illegal aliens he will still legalize 10 times perhaps 20 times more than he will deport and twice as many as was legalized in 1986 not to mention sending a signal to the world that the United States of America no longer believes in our sovereignty as a nation.
Millions upon millions of more illegal aliens will invade this country knowing that we have no intention of stopping illegal immigration. I have said it before and will say it again I believe there is a systematic attempt by politicians on both sides of the isle to replace the American citizens with foreigners in a belief that they can continue to secure more power for themselves.
" if president obama gets his way to legalize the illegal aliens he will still legalize 10 times perhaps 20 times more than he will deport and twice as many as was legalized in 1986"
Perhaps you could find some credible sources stating that the president wishes to legalize all illegal immigrants.
drdrgimmethenews hows about president obama asking for the dream act, ect. He make no pretense of his intentions, you ask for proof why don't you open your ears and listen to what the man says. Or can't you take the truth.
You're aware the proposed Dream Act has been around in one form or another since 2001, has had bipartisan support and sponsorship, and would apply to only a small proportion of those here illegally, children who had been brought to the US illegally by their parents, right? And there's a long list of qualifications these young people must meet in order to meet the criteria to be naturalized. The Dream Act does not equal a Reagan-era-type amnesty for all illegal immigrants as you are implying above.
In the border state of Arizona where illegal immigration was one of the major voter concerns, the presidential candidates who “drove” the E-Verify issue benefited easily. After last week’s debate, Mitt Romney kept up the momentum and one the prize. Other than Ron Paul, the three have been supporting the national mandatory E-Verify (H.R.2885) through the campaign. But Romney, former Massachusetts Governor in last week's significant debate made sure the voters knew his statement by emphasizing the strong aspect of the “Legal Workforce Bill” standpoint.
Currently with people worried about their jobs, it’s not at all astonishing; that exit polling established that Arizona voters were mainly troubled in regards to illegal immigration that had been strongly introduced by Romney, who they recognized as "the mandatory E-Verify candidate." The poll results should caused every candidate of every party for every office, whether Governor, Mayor or further elected official to consider being the "E-Verify candidate" in their race. While Romney had long been predictable to win Arizona, polling showed his lead was narrowing until last week's debate performance when promoting federal E-Verify. This has drawn verbal torment from the other side, even though crowing that he would stumble by offering the attributes of this business hiring program.
But a new national poll conducted by Pulse Opinion Research that the Left oriented media to be gibberish. The poll revealed that wide spread majorities of virtually every type of American voter support mandatory E-Verify. It also acknowledged that "the political core" of Independents and Moderates is about as delighted with national E-Verify as Republicans and Conservatives (Tea Party). Reacting to this survey even Democrats and Liberals are not poles apart on this issue.
When debating last week, the Moderator tried to tempt Romney into a confrontation of how Hispanics and other minorities saw his immigration enforcement for America.
Instead of being drawn into the harsh classification of Deportations and the border fence, Romney cleverly replied, “the right course for America is to drop these lawsuits against Arizona and other states that are trying to do the job Barack Obama isn't doing. And I will drop those lawsuits on day one. I'll also complete the fence. I'll make sure we have enough border patrol agents to secure the fence.
And I will make sure we have an E-Verify system and require employers to check the documents of workers, and to check E- Verify. And if an employer hires someone that has not gone through E- Verify, they're going to get sanctioned just like they do for not paying their taxes. You do that, and just as Arizona is finding out, you can stop illegal immigration. It's time we finally did it.”
If you really want the facts about the illegal alien occupation, the REAL border fence, Chain Migration, Sanctuary Cities, Deportation, “foothold Babies” the Backdoor Amnesty, the Vendetta by Eric Holders Department of Justice suing Arizona, Alabama, Georgia, Utah, South Carolina, Indiana and many other problem that is causing Americas unnecessary pain and anguish, then you need to view the uncensored pages, not suppressed by the Leftist media at (Google) AMERICAN PATROL. For information about the dishonesty, profiting in Washington and the state congressional seats of power, check the web pages of the (Google) JUDICIAL WATCH.
Go read the statistics that in Arizona, Alabama where they are operating policing laws are leaving and the employment rate for citizens and legal residents is rising considerably. Foreign nationals are packing their stuff and turning up in less oppressive states like California and Nevada, with Liberal legislators.
We can win this battle if we all start a harassment campaign against Lawmakers, senior officials who are supposed to defend this country. The country is drowning in red ink and illegal immigration has roots in this growing problem. As a nations people we should stand with our fellow workers and demand mandatory E-Verify. This will make businesses accountable for using cheap labor and lowering wages, in the name of filling their pockets with your cash, while the U.S. taxpayer are forced to cover the cost of health care, education and the bloated prison system through the courts unfunded mandates. Contact your Senator or House member and insist they not only sponsor mandatory E-Verify, but also the “Birthright citizenship bill.” Both have their place in stringent enforcement.
"But a new national poll conducted by Pulse Opinion Research that the Left oriented media to be gibberish."
Speaking of gibberish.....
"And I will make sure we have an E-Verify system and require employers to check the documents of workers, and to check E- Verify."
E-verify's been available to all since 2007, but it is voluntary. I thought you guys were all about LESS government interference?
DrDr, would “ LESS government interference?” include the Secure Fence Act of 2006?
Frankly, every state is in play for every candidate. 4 years ago, who would pick Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich as the top GOP contenders.
I would like too find out how I get some big signs for my front yard supporting Obama ?
If we bomb Iran it would open up the shipping route so we could get more oil, plus it get rid of the threat of a nuk
attack