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Susan Walsh / AP
President Barack Obama speaks before the National Governors Association, Monday, Feb. 27, 2012, in the State Dining Room of the White House.
The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Arizona was 16 years ago, when Bill Clinton carried it in 1996.
The time before that? More than half a century ago, when Harry Truman won the state.
But as Republicans compete in their own primary there today, President Barack Obama's re-election team also has its eye on Arizona, a state where a growing Hispanic electorate and a deep divide on immigration policy could potentially help the president collect a much-needed 11 electoral votes in November.
A win there would be a reach, however. A recent NBC/Marist poll put Obama's approval rating in the state below 40%, and it showed him trailing most of the Republican presidential candidates there.
While Obama -- who didn't contest Arizona four years ago -- lost it by eight percentage points in 2008, his team believes that Sen. John McCain's less-than-double-digit victory in his own home state did much to lay bare Republicans' vulnerability there.
And, four years later, Obama's opponent is likely to face a much harsher reception from the state's growing Latino electorate than McCain, whose push for comprehensive immigration reform nearly derailed his candidacy early in the GOP primary.
From vows to veto the DREAM Act to heavy courtship of controversial endorsers like Arizona's Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, GOP candidates' language on immigration has prompted public worry from Republican Hispanic groups as well as from party leaders like former Gov. Jeb Bush.
In Arizona, which became ground zero for the immigration debate after its 2010 passage of legislation that would give police broad authority to detain suspected illegal residents, Democrats have a favorite noun to describe Republican rhetoric on the matter.
"Overreach."
"I can't underscore enough our sense on the ground is that Republicans have overplayed their hand in terms of rhetoric and legislating immigration law," says Phoenix-based Democratic strategist Barry Dill. "And there's a backlash."
Those working to turn the state blue were thrilled to hear Mitt Romney call Arizona's stringent SB 1070 immigration measure "a model" for the nation's policies during a Feb. 22 debate in Mesa. They believe that kind of language -- underscored by Romney's endorsement on Sunday by Gov. Jan Brewer, who signed the bill into law -- could further mobilize Arizona voters looking for more moderate solutions to the immigration issue.
Harnessing that feeling on the ground will be the task of the campaign's substantial Arizona field operation.
The re-election campaign has three field offices already in Arizona -- in Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff -- and another set to open in heavily Hispanic Glendale in the coming weeks. The campaign says that staff and volunteers have held almost 500 voter registration sessions and more than 200 phone banks since the spring. Much of that effort is focused on the Hispanic community, with events held at Hispanic supermarkets and weekly Spanish- and English-language phone banks targeting Latinos. The campaign recently hired a Mexican-American regional field director.
While Team Obama hasn't yet invested in paid media there, the DNC has aired TV advertisements, including a six-day anti-Romney buy last year.
With the number of voting age Hispanic citizens growing by a whopping 85% last decade, per Census data, the benefits of such a focus are obvious. But the lift may still prove to be a heavy one.
The NBC/Marist Arizona survey this month also found that 51% of Hispanics approve of the president's performance, with 34% disapproving and 15% unsure.
Compare that to the 2008 numbers: Obama won 56% of the Latino vote in Arizona compared to McCain's 41%.
Luis Heredia, the executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, estimates that Obama would have to boost that number to at least 65% in November to get over the finish line.
And Dill, who served as deputy state director for the Clinton/Gore win in 1996, puts that number even higher, at 68%.
He added that Democrats must be careful in 2012 to tailor their message to a diverse Hispanic community, saying that the party stumbled in past elections by treating the group as a single monolithic block.
"A big part of it had been our fault as campaign managers, as leaders," Dill said. "We had sort of homogenized the Hispanic community in Arizona into one group. And they're not, they're very diverse."
This year, Democrats say there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic.
Obama's team points to Democrats' double-digit mayoral victories in Tucson and Phoenix last year as well as the recall of Arizona State Senate president and author of SB 1070.
And Heredia adds that downballot races, like the one to replace retiring Rep. Gabby Giffords, will help build excitement for activists locally.
"I gain more and more confidence every day," he said.
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Letting the Drug Dealer, human smugglers and those killing border guards via the Fast & Furious all from south of the border that moved illegally on the northside of the border the right to vote would surely help Barry Soetoro putting AZ in "play". Of course, starting March 1st, there might be the first Law Enforcement recommending to enforce the US Constitutional in regards to Natural Born Citizen as intended by our Founding Fathers that would put Soetoro out of "play" in AZ and the other 49 States (or other 56 states per Soetoro)
You are nearly incoherent.
The solution is to increase gun control laws in the U.S. And please don't try to twist the law to suit your own racism.
Things may not be all peaches and cream as Team Obama would have you to believe. He should be TROUNCING everyone at this point -- but isn't. Note that even Santorum beats him according to Gallup!
Uh, no. Let's be accurate. There are 9 polls out in the last 2 weeks. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html 8 have Obama leading Santorum from anywhere between 3 and 11 points. Only one shows Santorum ahead. And that's a poll of the 'swing states' http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-02-23/swing-states-health-care-obama/53260222/1
real clear politics and usa today???????? yeah doc these are much more credible than Fox!!!! hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahaha What did the huffington post have to say? hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Hey, I didn't pick the polls your compadre misrepresented above. If you don't like his choices, take it up with him. And you're aware that RCP doesn't conduct it's own research, it reports the results of others, right?
Including Rasmussen and Fox.
How did he misrepresent them? Really - Im not being sarcastic - I dont put much stock in polls but are the numbers he listed inaccurate?
The numbers he listed are incomplete and out of context. Again, he cited 3 Obama vs. Santorum polls when many more show Obama significantly leading Santorum. Ditto with those looking at Obama vs. Romney. He also cited the one poll showing Santorum ahead of Obama but failed to mention it was a poll of swing states only. Put in context, that means that this poll was only of likely voters in 12 states, not all 50. In this case, context is important. Now do you understand?
So we are setting aside the fact we have a record deficit, record unemployment, record welfare rolls and soon to have record gas prices. We have 30,000 mercenaries still on payroll in Iraq so that makes the boogers accomplishments a fat ZERO. Besides being a welfare recipient or being a slum bunny, why would you vote for him again??
If we elect a republican to the White House, all these things will change? Is that what you believe? What happened the last time we elected a republican to the White House? Answer: all the things you mentiioned.
polls in Feb regarding the november election are as useful as used tissues.
Hey bozo's according to your side the world has collapsed and the WORSE President of all time is still competetive. Either your side is ahead of the curve and the rest of humanity will wake up and realize how bad Obama is or your side is oblivious to reality. I'm debating the answer, its coming to me, I think I got it- your side is OBLIVIOUS to REALITY
If Arizona chooses President Obama, they will be voting for as opposed to against.
THE REASON I'M A REPUBLICAN
My daddy taught me all this
My daddy was an idiot.
The reason I'm a democrat.
1) I'm on welfare and like it.
2) I believe everything in life is fair and we all just get along.
3) I think healthcare and food should also be free.
4) I believe anyone that works should share their paycheck with those who choose not to work.
5) I think 3rd world people entering the country are just great.
6) I like to hide away where problems are not evident, smoke dope and make ignorant comments.
You really don't understand...........but then again.
You're just like my daddy. Don't bother to comment, I've got better things to do.
Deport, you would make a very poor Democrat. The vast majority of Democrats don't believe in any of those six things.
right - they dont believe in them - they just continue to vote for the people who do
Obama is SO-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O much better than anyone the Republicans are offering... the Republicans are hate-mongerers. Just listen to their rhetoric. No realistic, sound ideas....just critcism, hate, and unbelievably stupid comments.
This is going to be fun!
who is playing the race card and class warfare card...? are you really that blind?
Correct. True. Independent and Wise. Thank you I feel the same.
Interesting how you assume only those who are polled and/or screaming in the media are voters. Just because the left and the illegals are loudest doesn't mean they are the majority. And by the way, most of us aren't anti-immigration, we are anti-illegal. Unless you live in Florida or Arizona, you have no right to comment on illegal immigration- you aren't really living with the consequences. Butt out.
living in the USA means you DONT HAVE THE RIGHT TO TELL US TO BUTT OUT you butthead
What about California, Texas, New Mexico aren't they on the border as well.
Improvement in the economy?
Right.....
Guess you didn't read the report today that durable goods orders fell to the lowest point since the recession (that never ended) started...
You Democrats are incapable of independent thought. You just parrot what NBC (and CBS, ABC) also parrots from the White House....
The reporting bias from the liberal media is outlandish, disgusting, and EVERY American should be riled by it. Not opinion here, it is PROVEN, demonstrable, quantifiable, and factual.
When George Bush was President, there was FOUR times as many stories about the horrific rise in gasoline prices (in '08)as you see today now that Barry is in the White House. The Democratic leadership at the time shouted from the rooftops, blaming the "OILMEN" in the White House for the carnage. Well, there's no "OILMEN" in the White House today...yet, that scum Wasserman-Schulz is strangely silent....
Funny, isn't it, that gasoline has risen 25 cents in the past WEEK, and there's no story on it today. Not one...
You Democrats make me PUKE with your double-standard bull@!$%#.
its gonna be groundhog day and gas will be on the news everyday so hold your paranoid mindset on the liberal slanted media that only picks on Dubya.
No one, I repeat, NO ONE is aying we are well on our way to a recovery and many things, including baked in the cake rising oil prices(you do realize 3/3's of the players on the oil future market are not end uses and the banks already carved out an exception to dodd franks to allow them to bet of commodity futures.
So be real
you are dead on mike...i am also puking as we speak!
And housing starts are up: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf and the stock market hit 13,000 today for the first time since 2008.
Don't you hate when there's GOOD news? /sarc/
what planet are you on doc??? Housing starts and sales of existing home last quarter of 2011 ARE THE LOWEST since they started keeping those records back in the early seventies! Are you believing your own propaganda? Dont you hate it when your "good news " turns out to be a pile of obama horsesh&t?
I'm on the planet that supports their perspectives with evidence other than my own opinion. See here about housing starts being at their highest level in 3 years, partly due to apartment building: http://www.npr.org/2012/02/16/146979007/housing-starts-up-on-surge-in-apartments But I'm aware the facts don't fit your narrative.
Now if they double again they will be as high as they were Jan 2007.
nabe"dot"com/graphweek/2009/gw090412.html
again doc you site very slanted sources - npr???are you kidding?
Seriously, EVERY source that doesn't agree with your opinion is slanted according to you.
What can you expect from the most corrupt president on record....did you all see that his home city of Chicago was the most corrupt city in the US..
With his $1 billion dollar war chest from big wall street and super pacs, which he claimed where pure evil, he is going to do what ever it takes to win....
He urinates on you dems and you bow down and kiss his feet...
gitmo still open
tax cuts for the rich
no tax reform what so ever in his first 2 years when he had both houses and whitehouse
signs the ndaa into law that allows americans to be detained indefinitely with representation...
do i need to go on..???
This is the face of EVIL....he has devided this country on race, class etc....truly a destructive president...
Yep, Mr. Transparency, remember?
Hmmm...
I seem to remember a "little" back door deal with Senator Nelson to BUY his vote for the Healthcare Reform Act.
While there have been Presidents that I have been displeased with, there is something about the sheer arrogance of Barack Obama, that makes me literally hate the man.
I meant to say with no representation...ie ndaa....truly evil and UNAMERICAN...And you clowns better wake the HELL up!
Mark turn off that darn Fox news, they are damaging you psychologically, and crawl out from under the rock. ITS FRESH AIR HERE.
That's exactly my point. Speculators account for 40% of what we pay at the pump according to Goldman-Sachs.
YOU BET that if "Dubya" were in the White House, the media would be SCREAMING for regulation, blaming the woes of main street America on the Republicans.
You know it.
simply amazing..the dems just sit there like sheep led to slaughter...
bush was HAMMERED on gas price increases and i heard a dem strategist say on tv that no president can control gas prices...trying to define loser obama....
Please explain how electing a Republican President will improve things for everyone.
zorro-
they never respond just attack. Dont expect logical responses as they operate from the "emotional "area of the brain stem
Obama won't be president. Biden won't be vice president, Harry Reid will lose the Senate. Hillary won't be Sec. Of State. Andy Stren and George Soros will no longer be running the country. We WILL have 40 less Czars. We WILL have a comprehensive energy, defense, economic and foreign policy - like the days before Obama. We will have national pride. Other nations will look up to us once more. Those are just a few reasons but I could go on....
Are you talking about the George W. Bush years? Comprehensive economic policy? Comprehensive foreign policy? Other nations will look up to us once more? What planet have you been living on?
Uh...no!
If the main stream media ever allowed a story to be written on Obama's performance as President, he would lose in a landslide. I can't wait to see all the red faces at MSNBC when a Republican takes over as President next January. They will have to put away their Pom Pom's and go back to hammering the President like they did when Bush was in office. Obama has made so many promises that he hasn't kept and made so many outrageous statements that will be brought up later this summer that he has no chance of staying in the White House no matter how hard the media tries to protect him.
How much are you willing to bet? luke.
How much do you have? Compare Obama's 4 years to Bush's 8 on the following:
The unemployment rate.
The National Debt
The average annual deficit.
Average annual spending.
Foreclosures.
Foreign Relations with our allies
Promises made versus promises kept.
% of negative stories written about Bush compared to Obama
Consumer Confidence averages
Civility in Congress, Washington D.C. and the country as a whole.
Number of bills past versus bills killed in the Senate (compare Rep versus Dem Senate)
I could go on and on and on but the bottom line is Obama is worse than Bush on almost every statistic and I wasn't a fan of Bush. He won't win another term.
No spin to win luke. Wont fly. I will give you a pass......try betting in LV.
note how 53(IQ?) has little to say in rebuttle to lukewarm
I'll start.
Unemployment January 2001 4.2%
Unemployment January 2009 7.8%
Unemployment now 8.3%
Under which president did the largest increases occur? http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
Annual deficit. See here: http://home.adelphi.edu/sbloch/deficits.html You'll note that Bush tripled the deficit from 2001-2002, that there was an increase in the deficit nearly every year of his administration. He doubled the deficit from 2007 - 2008 and almost doubled it again with his final budget that ended in September 2009. For the most part until 2008, these were good economic times, too! By contrast, Obama's budgets have reduced the yearly deficit each year so far, and during the worst recession we've had in a long time.
Somebody else chime in now.
the doc is wrong from the get go - unemployment now - REAL unemployment is around 16% , doc buys into obamas lie in forgetting the 370000 Americans who left the unemployment roles last quarter and are still unemployed. Very simple rule of thumb doc - if obama says it - fact check!! You may wake up yet and realise how much this prancing little fraud is lying to you. Oh and by the way - since 2009 - three consecutive years of deficits over a trillion - unprecedented until obama
"the doc is wrong from the get go"
Sorry, you guys can't have it both ways. The rates I used are the way unemployment has been measured for years, and has been published for years so that folks can compare across years. You can't simply choose a formula that suits you better when it occurs under a president you don't like and want to discredit. Yeah, why don't you fact-check, since you provide 0 sources to back up your claims?
The only formula that siutes me doc is the truth . MY source is the dept of labor - whats yours? When you start ignoring the truth when its shown to you - you become a zealot. obama lied last month - nothing new - he does it every time he speaks. Fact doc - REAL unemployment is around 16% and obama lied about it. Do obama syncophants have ANY concern for whats real?? Sure doc - unemployments 8.1% , house starts are the best ever, the US isnt saddle with the biggest debt in our history, just keep on dancing doc
oops I meant suites - go ahead doc - its the easiest one your going to get tonight
"MY source is the dept of labor - whats yours?"
So why don't you provide the DoL link that states that unemployment rates are really 15%?
Here's the one (again) from the Bureau of Labor statistics (from the DoL website, fyi) citing the numbers I used above: http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet You will note that there is historical data available here: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 that will allow you to compare unemployment rates all the way from 1948 to the present.
"When you start ignoring the truth when its shown to you"
If you ever actually provided some credible sources for the stuff you spout, people here might pay more attention to you. Until then, you're just repeating right-wing talking points and your opinion.
DrDr, I believe that PC may have been referring to the decline in the civilian labor force participation rate?
http:// data.bls"dot"gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Something is wrong with your link, so here is the corrected one: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 (Newsvine doesn't let you post links as a new member, fyi).
The dip in the decline in the labor force rate is due, at least in part, to the first of the babyboomer generation to take retirement at age 62 beginning in 2008. The oldest of the babyboomers turned 65 in 2011, accounting for another drop in this statistic.
If these statistics are what pc means, he/she can say so, but I fail to see the decrease of the labor force participation from 67.2% to 63.2% as equal to a 15% unemployment rate, especially since a large chunk of those who are unemployed are students, the independently wealthy, the disabled, and those who are retired.
All good points on the labor force decline DrDr. I believe that the reasoning goes something like this; if the labor force participation were higher the same unemployment percentage would represent more people. Conversely if the labor force participation was zero the unemployment rate would by necessity also be 0%.
Thanks for the hint on links and new members. I see what I did wrong with the “link” that I tried to sneak through. Thank you for correcting it and reposting it for me. Good catch.
Yes. Arizona is turning blue/green Independent........a medium
Arizona is soooo far from the facts and reality, that there will not only NO team Obama, its going to be "Obama who?"
And the clown car is running on empty with flat tires.....
And luke? Whom would you suggest in your clown car to be the next president?
ANY of them - the worst of the Republicans would still be a thousand times better then obama
TEAM OBAMA--the FEC still has not uncovered where millions of 2008 campaign funds disappeared to!
Then we have the non profit--harassing individuals on-line...
"No can wear a FLAG PIN" which US President made that statement "it signifies oppression!
Tell that to my blown apartment and B E H E A D E D U S Military family!
Do Unto Others As You Would HaVe Them Do Unto YOU
That is one nasty looking person. I cannot believe the clodbusters of this country put that slug in office!
What do you look like?
Just another attempt by the msnbc lockup crew to try and prop up a failed president BB Obama.
What a joke!
then why come on here and read the "propaganda?"
It's probably the only real news Pat gets since he can't trust the nonsense on FOX and he refuses to listen to NPR. He just doesn't like the truth, is all.
He just comes on here because he knows there will be 10 dumbos to argue with him to his one. You would be crazy to take this liberal media as anything but propaganda.
must make you want to rip your hair out sailcat that Fox is the highest rated cable news for truth and credibility. Interesting how much the libs loved Fox when it was dishing dirt on Bush , now that Fox is telling the sad terrible truth about obama - it turns into faux news of fux noise. Never underestimate liberal hypocrisy
AND least trusted. Which ought to tell you something. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/3rd-annual-tv-news-trust-poll.html
sure sure doc - getting your opinions from slanted sources - good policy - keep changing the channels until your hearing what you wish to be true. Im sure all obama syncophants distrust Fox - you folks stick with "credible" sources like cnn, nbc, cbs and dont forget that bastion of truth and unbiasedness -msnbc
Right. Slanted sources - like the people who actually conducted the poll. Seriously, that's the best you got???
its all I need to discredit you, syncophant
Right. Okay, you are talking about a poll, and I went directly TO the poll to demonstrate you were not providing the whole story. How is it possible that the actual poll YOU were talking about is a slanted source? Seriously?
And the word is spelled "sycophant", fyi. If I were you I wouldn't use words I couldn't spell.
PC/NOT's posts make him seem like a blithering idiot, but his terrible spelling skill make him look just plain stupid. He's damned entertaining, though!
Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind. The vileness of racism begets the backlash of righteous anger.
If the Republicans are stupid enough to nominate Santorum, Obama carries Arizona.
and if Americans re-elects obama , we ALL lose
I don't like what is being said so I will through out the race card...... That always works.
I was at the voting place today to cast my vote and there was a lot of people wanting to place a vote but could not because it did not say republican on their card. This should say something about the democrat idiots! OBAMA IS THE GREAT DIVIDER AND IS DESTROYING THIS COUNTRY!!!!
the people that vote for Obama have the same mentality as the people who wanted Hitler to run Germany
There isn't any state that isn't open to obama. The hispanic vote should be obama's. The same for those who want to see the dow back up to where is was when the bushman was robo signing fed backed bad home loans & bundling them into $16T of derivatives.
The women's vote will also be Obama's. Most women seen uninterested in abolishing contraceptives and having probes shoved up their vagina. Go figure!
sharkey demonstrates the lack of facts most obama syncophants suffer from - not one - not one of the Republicans have ever endorsed banning contraceptives. Its this kind of ignorance that obama counts on. Remember - a well informed voter is obamas worst enemy