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Susan Walsh / AP
President Barack Obama speaks before the National Governors Association, Monday, Feb. 27, 2012, in the State Dining Room of the White House.
The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Arizona was 16 years ago, when Bill Clinton carried it in 1996.
The time before that? More than half a century ago, when Harry Truman won the state.
But as Republicans compete in their own primary there today, President Barack Obama's re-election team also has its eye on Arizona, a state where a growing Hispanic electorate and a deep divide on immigration policy could potentially help the president collect a much-needed 11 electoral votes in November.
A win there would be a reach, however. A recent NBC/Marist poll put Obama's approval rating in the state below 40%, and it showed him trailing most of the Republican presidential candidates there.
While Obama -- who didn't contest Arizona four years ago -- lost it by eight percentage points in 2008, his team believes that Sen. John McCain's less-than-double-digit victory in his own home state did much to lay bare Republicans' vulnerability there.
And, four years later, Obama's opponent is likely to face a much harsher reception from the state's growing Latino electorate than McCain, whose push for comprehensive immigration reform nearly derailed his candidacy early in the GOP primary.
From vows to veto the DREAM Act to heavy courtship of controversial endorsers like Arizona's Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, GOP candidates' language on immigration has prompted public worry from Republican Hispanic groups as well as from party leaders like former Gov. Jeb Bush.
In Arizona, which became ground zero for the immigration debate after its 2010 passage of legislation that would give police broad authority to detain suspected illegal residents, Democrats have a favorite noun to describe Republican rhetoric on the matter.
"Overreach."
"I can't underscore enough our sense on the ground is that Republicans have overplayed their hand in terms of rhetoric and legislating immigration law," says Phoenix-based Democratic strategist Barry Dill. "And there's a backlash."
Those working to turn the state blue were thrilled to hear Mitt Romney call Arizona's stringent SB 1070 immigration measure "a model" for the nation's policies during a Feb. 22 debate in Mesa. They believe that kind of language -- underscored by Romney's endorsement on Sunday by Gov. Jan Brewer, who signed the bill into law -- could further mobilize Arizona voters looking for more moderate solutions to the immigration issue.
Harnessing that feeling on the ground will be the task of the campaign's substantial Arizona field operation.
The re-election campaign has three field offices already in Arizona -- in Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff -- and another set to open in heavily Hispanic Glendale in the coming weeks. The campaign says that staff and volunteers have held almost 500 voter registration sessions and more than 200 phone banks since the spring. Much of that effort is focused on the Hispanic community, with events held at Hispanic supermarkets and weekly Spanish- and English-language phone banks targeting Latinos. The campaign recently hired a Mexican-American regional field director.
While Team Obama hasn't yet invested in paid media there, the DNC has aired TV advertisements, including a six-day anti-Romney buy last year.
With the number of voting age Hispanic citizens growing by a whopping 85% last decade, per Census data, the benefits of such a focus are obvious. But the lift may still prove to be a heavy one.
The NBC/Marist Arizona survey this month also found that 51% of Hispanics approve of the president's performance, with 34% disapproving and 15% unsure.
Compare that to the 2008 numbers: Obama won 56% of the Latino vote in Arizona compared to McCain's 41%.
Luis Heredia, the executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, estimates that Obama would have to boost that number to at least 65% in November to get over the finish line.
And Dill, who served as deputy state director for the Clinton/Gore win in 1996, puts that number even higher, at 68%.
He added that Democrats must be careful in 2012 to tailor their message to a diverse Hispanic community, saying that the party stumbled in past elections by treating the group as a single monolithic block.
"A big part of it had been our fault as campaign managers, as leaders," Dill said. "We had sort of homogenized the Hispanic community in Arizona into one group. And they're not, they're very diverse."
This year, Democrats say there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic.
Obama's team points to Democrats' double-digit mayoral victories in Tucson and Phoenix last year as well as the recall of Arizona State Senate president and author of SB 1070.
And Heredia adds that downballot races, like the one to replace retiring Rep. Gabby Giffords, will help build excitement for activists locally.
"I gain more and more confidence every day," he said.
Leave a Comment:
There is NO reason why even ONE Latino would vote republican. Republicans not only hate the poor, they also hate the middle class. They have done everything in their power to push more and more into poverty. The thought of putting in ANOTHER George Bush (republicans are carbon copies of each other, remember), makes my stomach churn. Each republican elected to office...is WORSE than the last one. That is because they are getting so BOLD in their hatred of the working poor and middle class. Hitlers Nazis made Jews their punching bag. The POOR have been the punching bag since Reagan got in office and down through each republican elected in office
ANY BLUE collar worker CANNOT support these theives. Why? Because their agenda is this: take away minimum wage, overtime pay, social security, medicare, medicaid, retirement benefits from companies.
They SUPPORT: welfare for oil companies (subsidies are welfare), subsidies for farmers, HUGE subsidies for the military (only a fraction is needed) and MANY other welfare checks WHILE supporting tax cuts for the SAME groups.....So...We get to pay a double whammy. And these are not ALL of them.
Let them know how you feel with YOUR VOTE.
Th
CJ
I can't speak for everyone like you do but I only hate ignorant people such as you. I am a far right wing guy. Tea Party is to left for me. I hate no one because of skin color. I hate stupidity in any form. Sadly that mostly comes from the left.
I work for a living and I would be considered in your thinking as poor. I qualify for handouts and so far I have not had to take any and have refused too because I feel I am not poor in anyway. I will never vote for a Democrat because they try and enslave the poor. Keep your silly rants to yourself or get a clue.
Stupidity, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. Evidently you think you're intelligent. Just because you don't take handouts doesn't make you so. Have a nice day.
old Lady
What a foolish post you made but as I look all yours are that way. I had a nice day. Your lack of intelegence shows when you support of the current Prez. I thinks its because he is black and nothing more. Go occupy a sewer plant. That is the place where your comments go anyway.
Doesn't the Prez have the hottest eyebrows? Just sayin'
Can't say I've noticed his eyebrows, but he can sing!
No big deal, the Democrat party machine will just make sure every illegal immigrant gets to the polls to vote for Obama (twice if possible), and it's all good.
Gee, I wonder why they're so against voter ID laws?
You should ask yourself why legislatures would be willing to use so much political capital just to get voter ID laws passed. Do you really think they are altruistic?
Last week, one state legislative member was seen pushing 2 buttons either voting for / against something that was being voted on. Members HAD to be present to vote, but those 2 were absent. So that bastard voted 3 times. Is that voting fraud? Needless to say, he was a Republican. After ALL THESE YEARS, it's only now when the Republicans have enough Governors to make these changes, that voter fraud has become an issue. Frankly, I think they are scared sh--less that Obama will win fair and square and they're trying their best to make sure he doesn't.
How would making sure that voters are really who they say they are prevent Obama from winning 'fair and square'?
Nobody can answer that question; they just obfuscate and change the subject like you're doing here. How would voter ID laws hurt Obama unless a significant portion of his vote came from illegal voters?
This has been explained many times. Only the willfully ignorant don't understand the voting blocks for the different parties.
Those least likely to have ID tend to vote for Democrats.
Uhuh, so you mean illegal immigrants? Felons? Who are all these people allegedly living with no form of ID whatsoever?
Because there is absolutely no reason for any law abiding citizen to not have some kind of valid photo ID. You need a goddamn photo ID to cash a welfare check for christ sakes, so don't give me any BS about how poor people don't have any, because that's just plain wrong.
So I ask again, how would requiring a photo ID at the polls deny any legitimate votes to Obama?
Bear, “Those least likely to have ID tend to vote for Democrats.”
Shoot us a link that provides a breakdown of those without ID by party affiliation please.
TO: JH-479998 who wrote:
Maybe you're underestimating the unpopularity of the Republican Party, and maybe you're not paying attention to all of the devastating promises Republicans have made to the American People, namely, everything from attacking our Social Security Retirement money, to making assurances that the American People will never have the chance to afford quality health care, to promising to break up employee unions and repealing minimum wage laws in order to lower American Workers' wages all across the country, and Republicans have systematically been doing exactly that everywhere they govern.
The Republican voters are too obsessed with Obama to pay attention to what Republicans are doing, or maybe I should say "un-doing."
There is NO good reason for any average American Worker to vote for a Republican unless you're just a sucker for punishment, and THAT is why all 50 States are in play this election year.
Obama / Biden 2012
All I can say for Republicans is that they need to wake up and take a look at what they are calling their leaders, To the average American these people are unelectable by even the lowest standards.
Denying the facts about how much Obama has done isn't gonna cut it with Inde's, Hispanics, Women, Unions, workingclass, Blacks, elderly or any other segment of the USA Republicans seem determined to alienate.
If Santorum is the nominee, you can add college graduates and those who want their child to attend college to the list of those alienated.
I don't think that'll happen. They think Democrats are scared of Romney, we really aren't anymore. Moderate Mitt was formidable but the GOP did us a favor by pushing him so far to the right and forcing the primary so close to the general that he won't have much time to pivot back to the center.
Between his ambition and the GOPs blindness, Obama will be reelected.
Gotta love how all the Republican'ts on here have nothing intelligent to say. Go watch Fixed News and get back to your Republican't fantasy land.
i don't see how any thinking adult american can believe anything said by obama........obama has done enough damage to our nation....why do you libs love the idea of big government running your lives????........that is what this election is about....in addition to the inept obama, the idea of big government must be rejected....ANYONE BUT obama IN NOVEMBER!!!!!
I prefer big gov't to no gov't anytime. I have no interest in seeing America becoming 50 independent nations. Nor do I want the eat your own strategy adopted by our gov't.
i say if you need big government you are kind of a loser......no offense intended...ANYONE BUT obama IN NOVEMBER!!!
One thing this primary has taught liberals is that a lot of the things we thought were really outrageous, aren't to them.
Liberals have some crazy notions too but most of us don't really believe in pushing for those types of reforms. It seems that conservatives are ready to for issues that will either destroy their party or destroy the country. I don't mean that in a hyperbolic sense.
I really believe some on right are at a point where they're willing to destroy themselves to get their policies enacted. And if they actually get their agenda through, it'll destroy America because they so vehemently believe things have to happen their way and don't see room for compromise...or even consider the concept of compromise a good thing.
It is funny how all you Obama groupies actually think Obama has a chance for re-election, according to the latest poll just out today he is melting like a snow cone in July. His approval rating is barely 43% and 3 of the 4 Republican candidates are beating him nationally as of today, including the braindead, 4th place candidate Ron Paul. Thank you President Obama for being such a coward and apologizing to your Muslim brothers and shooting yourself in the foot, not to mention all of your other disasters since you have taken office. Just imagine once the Gop race is done and they turn their attention on you and start dropping all the negative ads about you, I am sure you will go down as the worst president in US history. You have disgraced this great nation and showed your true colors,(yellow) so keep apologizing and bowing to all the muslim leaders and maybe when your time is done they will invite you for dinner. Semper Fi, God Bless America, Santorum 2012
What polls are you referring to. RealClearPolitics which tracks all the major national polls has Obama tied with Romney and beating the other 3 as of today.
bustednDisgusted- as bear down has already commented what polls are you referring to? As with so much from your side there are echo chambers on both sides of the aisle but your side on THIS web site pulls information from the most biased sources.
The big picture America is a multi cultural and multi racial country. The Republican party is dominated by old white men and those ideas and belief system are increasingly in the minority.
See here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
That is Obama's approval ratings. That's not 3 of the other 4 being higher than him.
Yeah man.....obama apologizing to his muslim brothers was totally disgusting..........yuck....ANYONE BUT obama IN NOVEMBER!!!!
do you people live in a alternate universe or are you just that blind to REALITY?
Mcpaddywack - did you know that Obamas family dog does not fly on the plane when they go on vacation, because it against Islamic law. They fly the dog separately True fact.
.
1. source
2. dog may fly in seperate plane with other staff, equipment
3. Nothing to do with Islamic law
4. GET A BRAIN
I have read some pretty insane things posted by members of the lunatic right, but Busted and Disgusted just managed to fabricate one of the most ridiculous lies I've seen since Gingrich said he was an honorable man.
Fail.
Sailcat- for your information, after having spent 2 tours in Iraq I got to know some of the people there an some of their laws and beliefs. And Yes it is against any animal to travel, fly or be in the same space when traveling with an Islamic leader. So I suggest you get off Obama's food stamps and move your ass and do some researching. Semper Fi, God Bless America - Santorum 2012
Since you lied once I cannot trust any of your other blithering ravings, Busted. You are not a man of any integrity and honor.
You are a common loser.
This is an all out lie. Some extremely devout Muslims consider dogs "unclean" but those people consider dogs unclean ALL THE TIME not just when traveling.
Thats interesting busted. which side did you fight for?
I don't see Obama winning in a landslide, but I do see him winning. The GOP has 2 options running against him in the general:
1. I could've done it faster
2. I could've done it better
They can't run against him saying his policies haven't worked (on any front) because the facts aren't with them. That only works in the primary when talking to the base.
I'll be shocked if anyone runs a Muslim, socialist, communist, dictator add in the general and none of these candidates will say that while on stage with him. That'll take a lot of teeth out of their rhetoric alone.
Bear down - that is because realclear is pro Obama, if you look at the whole site you will see they are thrashing all the Republicans. I voted Democratic my entire life, but now it is not about a certain party but the future of this country for my children and grandchildren to come. 4 more years of a weak President will only make it worse. He has done absolutely nothing and is only making it worse. He has blocked many things to make life easier for each American. 1 - stopping domestic drilling of oil right here in our country, blocking the Keystone project. The list could go on and on but to me the biggest disgrace is bowing to saudi kings, apologizing to radical muslims so on and so on, American soldiers,"'my brothers in arm" were killed and this president apologizes. Something is wrong with that picture. He should be apologizing to the families of those killed by these radical brothers of Obama. Semper Fi, God Bless America, Santorum 2012
" realclear is pro Obama"
Oh, please. RCP averages the polls of the other outlets during a time period. They do not conduct their own research for the most part. In some instances, because Rasmussen a) leans consistently right, and b) often conducts several polls during the same time period, that perspective is often overweighted. But I know, any site that doesn't believe Obama is a Muslim communist born in Kenya without a birthcertificate who wants to take your guns, is "pro Obama" in your mind.
hey busted.... DUH
oil production is up- we are EXPORTING domestically produced oil because we have met our domestic needs. WAKE UP
Busted---- You do know that the Keystone project's oil wasn't going to stay here in the US, right? Never mind those thousands and thousands of jobs that were suppose to be created...a lie. Try finding out stuff on your own, don't rely on Fox News for your information. Polling showed that viewers of that show are more ignorant of FACTS than people who watched no news. It's looking more and more likely that Obama will win in 2012! Live with it.
Old lady - you and all the rest of Obamas sheep are running scared, so I suggest you go back to knitting your blanket. I can't wait until the Republican primary is over so they can unleash their attack on your weak President who bows to saudi kings and apologizes to Islamic radicals. I see why our country is in the shape it is, because crack pots like you and all the other Obama wanna bees.
Busted, these were also my brothers in arms, in fact, I likely served with some of these men. The president apologizes in cases like this for force protection (ask Bush Jr).
To take it further, apologizes are meant for accidents. This was an accident and deserved an apology.
Rightwing nuts don't understand this because they think our troops are expendable tools to increase their wealth. This is how they see the military and the domestic workforce.
"who bows to saudi kings"
As opposed to holding hands with them, right?
Well, I am new to this site and apparently, it is heavily populated by democrats.
I didn't think much of Bush, but, to be honest, I would have to say, that I think less of Obama.
With two or three minor exceptions, this seems to be a pep rally type thing for the current administration.
I went over and checked out the Fox site that so many of the posters here seem to despise, so heartily.
I don't see any real difference, between the two, with the exception that Fox labels its opinion pieces as opinion and this site treats their opinions like news.
Then too, the rhetoric here is much more shrill and strident, there seems to be a desperation, here that is missing at Fox.
Frankly most posters here seem to be trying too hard, and nasty one liners seem to pass for worthwhile comments.
Nancy- well said yes this site is Pro Obama, and that is a main reason I post here, to let others know that everything you read on this site is not true. Obama's days are numbered and all his groupies are running scared.
Its run by Media Matters...
"Its run by Media Matters..."
Uh, no. Only according to Fox and the Daily Caller.
Nancy, if true that you're new to this site, you're mistaken that only shrill Democrats post here. In any case, I hope you find a site that more to your liking. If you say we're more shrill than Fox, this is definitely not a place for you.
With Obama's polls diving for the cellar is Arizona in Play? Yes, but Obama isn't in that game!
This is the state that just re-elected John McCain and Jan Brewer. They clearly have no problems with flip-floppers or crazies as long as there's an R by their name.
"Is Arizona in play for Team Obama?"
What is this team Obama thing, something run by MSNBC for Obama?
Well you know MSLSD and the likes of brian williams are nothing but carnival barkers for the big bamboozler obama...ANYONE BUT obama IN NOVEMBER!!!
Tell me mcpaddywack, how will my life be better if Obama loses in November?
Hewouldn't be able to name one thing. These Republicans don't want jobs, health care....nothing! Their hatred of Obama is the only thing that makes them wet their pants/panties. It's so sick. They don't give a damn about anything, just get rid of Obama....screw any comprehensive ANYTHING, just get rid of Obama. I'm going to buy stock in Depends because when he wins again there will be a fortune to be made. Before you post, I am not old enough to need them yet!
Yes, we're all a bunch of gun carrying, bible banging racists. We wear tinfoil hats and drink tea. You just keep right on believing that fantasy, slick!
"Slick??" That's cute. Well bfitz, maybe you can tell me how my life will be better if Obama loses in November. If it makes sense, I might stop believing that you are ignorant as dirt.
Why would I engage in a battle of wits with an unarmed man?
I am not surprised you ducked that question. Whenever you ask a right winger how a typical American's life will be better with a Republican in the White House, they either don't answer or change the subject.
I didn't duck or change the subject. I said you are too much of an idealogue to mount a cogent argument.
Here's one for you try:
Are you better off since Obama took office?when gasoline was 1.70/gallon Obama called it unamerican and blamed George Bush. Gas is now 3.78/gallon and rapidly heading for 4.00/gallon.
When GW Bush spent 3 trillion in 8 years Obama called it Shameful and his oold standby, "Unamerican."
Now, after increasing the national debt by 67% in just three years it is apparently OK in his book.
26 states are suing the Fed over Obama's signature legislation health care reform.
11 states are suing the Fed over immigration and 7 states are suing the same administration over violating the separation of Church and State over ovbama's birth Control mandate.
Has that improved things?
Obama has used the IRS to intimidate his political opponents by challenging their tax exempt status but ignores those far left organizations like media matters on the very same issues.
Under Barack Obama hiring by the Fed has increased by 68% over the entire time GW Bush was in government. The tax burden has grown but id you bundle donations for his political campaign you have nothing to fear.
He has trodden over the Constitution, used federal agencies to browbeat his opponents, refused to enforce our immigration laws (and I can tell you as a resident of Arizona living just 30 miles above the international frontier illegals are a constant problem) and used our tax dollars to reward his political cronies through the disbursement of Green Loans and buyouts.
So, as a nation sinking into debt, with an economy with a slower growth rate than 1933, the destruction of medicare/medicaid are we better off? We are not.
Conservatives wish to repeal Obama care to put medicare/medicaid back on an equal footing, restore the coontributions to Social Security for those over 55, move to a flat tax and close the loop holes to increase revenue and return to a freemarket system where companies can start without Government interference and, when they are incompetently managed, they are allowed to fail.
So, Slick there's my answer. Where's yiours?
what the tinfoil crowd doesnt realize white america is becoming a MINORITY.
Az is most deffinately in play! Those in denial, sorry bout your luck!
ugh
I will tell you absolutely no!! For several reasons.. The first he is a socialist near communist President. Second his values do not coincide with Arizonians. Third he is anti military and we have allot of retired veterans that live here and fourth we are a right to work state and there is not the unions here to support him..
The writer of this article is borderline nuts!!!
Tell us how your life will improve with a Republican back in the White House.
The New poster boys for Our military,,Two men humping one over the other and they got their tank barrel pointing up Obamas ass saying,,Go black you never go back, Go Abomination- Obamanation all the way,, we went black and don't want to go back,,We seen him screwing people in the a??
Congratulations. You've managed to be both racist and homophobic in the same short post. I'm sure your mother is proud.
The only congratulations he needs is for being an absolute jackass! But that's who will be casting a vote...can you really believe it?
Chuck, you are a poster boy for the Right Wing Nut Job.
Can Obama carry Arizona? Depends. Will the state be allowed to not let Mexicans vote? Or will Holder file for an injunction?
The bat shlt crazy governor Jan Brewer will be a huge asset for the Obama campaign. Has she found any more" headless bodies in the desert" lately?
Obama wants a welfare nation, dependent on government, full of illegals! THAT, is obvious!
blood flow alert blood flow alert- loosen the tin foil hat or your brain may stop functioning all the time
mt mike - well said, enough with this food stamp, socialist President. He is out come November
I am an Arizonan who is PROUD to support President Obama, as are the rest of my family who live, work, and vote in Arizona.
We've had our cars and yards vandalized for having Obama signs/bumper stickers, but that only makes us more determined. The Right here in AZ feels they don't have to obey laws.
Go back to Chicago then.
Andi's presence in Arizona raises the collective IQ of the state by several points, little man. Why would you want her to leave unless her blinding wit and intelligence keeps you awake at night?
what part of the country are you lowering the collective IQ sailcat?
Nowhere near the Little Rock trailer park you call home, you can be sure of that!