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Subscribe to RSSWith the 2012 race in full swing, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss if the Republicans will be able to keep control of the House and take back the Senate.
The White House isn't the only thing at stake on Election Night 2012.
Control of the House and Senate also hang in the balance, impacting the eventual president's ability to govern. It could be split government or even a three-chamber sweep for Republicans.
Video and transcript by NBC's Morgan Parmet.
TRANSCRIPT:
MARK MURRAY: Welcome to the latest addition of Inside the Boiler Room. I'm Mark Murray, joined by my colleague, Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, we got a question from Candice who asks, "What are the chances the Republicans retain the House and what seats are up for grabs that would allow the Republicans to take over the senate too?
DOMENICO MONTANARO: Well one of the things we certainly love talking about: A little down ballot. So let's get to it here. The question here is can Democrats take back the House? Can Republicans retain the House?
You know a lot of people think that's probably not likely. It's probably the case because of redistricting and where things stand now that Democrats pick up high single digits is what a lot of people are looking at as something and they need about 25 seats
MARK MURRAY: Right.
DOMENICO MONTANARO: So, it's not likely that they take back the House. The Senate, however, is going to be hotly watched. Closely watched. The thing to watch on election night because what we see right now, here's the field of play: Republicans will need three seats; will need to flip three seats, if President Obama loses.
If a Republican becomes President, they'll need three seats. If President Obama wins, they'll need four to take back the house. If you look through the field, let's go down the map. You've got North Dakota and Nebraska. Two right now you probably put in the Republican column. Then you also look at some Toss Ups like Missouri, Montana, and those two states a lot closer but maybe nudging, nudging, leaning towards Republicans. That's four.
But when we look at the other side of this, Democrats, you know, holding Virginia. Looks like a 50-50 race right now between Tim Kaine and George Allen, but also Nevada and Massachusetts are two targets that Democrats actually have. You know, the question between those three states, between Nevada, Virginia, and Massachusetts, as you've said, it seems if somebody wins two of those three, then we'll see who’s in control of the Senate.
MARK MURRAY: That is the one thing to look at. Whoever wins two of the three in Nevada, Virginia and Massachusetts will probably end up controlling the senate. Domenico, if Democrats are able to win all three and President Obama wins re-election, that's how they end up holding on to control of the Senate.
As for those House races again. The magic number is right. Democrats have to pick up 25 to take over the house. A lot of the very smart political analysts of the world, the Charlie Cooks, the Stu Rothenbergs, have looked back, that even when an incumbent President wins in a landslide fashion for re-election, that often that hasn't had a big down ballot effect. When Bill Clinton won in 1996, Democrats didn't win a whole bunch of House races. When George W. Bush won in 2004 even though it was contested, there wasn't a big down ballot effect.
So this is some of the reasoning why you might end up only having 10 or 15 House races switch hands. On the other hand, Democrats have to be feeling really good right now. When you look at polls, generic ballots are showing that things are starting to return a little bit more to 2008 from than they were 2010 when Republicans had that sweep in the House race.
DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yeah, and the Down Ballot effect is really important when you think about the Senate races especially in Nevada and Massachusetts because Massachusetts is obviously a state where Democrats are going to do well. In a Presidential election, it's one of the strongest Democratic or liberal states, but the question is going to be whether or not Scott Brown can convince voters who are going to vote for President Obama to also vote for him. That's, you know, can be a tall order, but he's done a lot of the things to move himself in a more moderate direction. Certainly irritating a lot of his tea party support when he had come in taking over what had been Ted Kennedy's seat.
In Nevada, if President Obama wins in Nevada, which he has done well with Hispanic voters. Did well there in 2008, then the question becomes will those same people who vote for President Obama also vote for Dean Heller. That's going to be an interesting thing to watch.
MARK MURRAY: Yeah, it really is. And it's just one of those things that we are going to be watching on election night. In addition to that, Presidential contest and all those battle ground states. Paying attention to the House, Senate, and also the Governor’s race.
DOMENICO MONTANARO: Let's do it.
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Why are republicans against students? I heard 'Rough Leembo' and 'Lura Igrum' speaking in
their Radio Talk Show and it was pathetic. Rough said he is a millionaire without going to
college and does not understand why students should be encouraged to go to college.
'Lura' supported by saying that money that is spent on education is a waste because only
students whose parents can afford to pay their college education should be allowed to go
to college. They both supported the idea that students should start work as soon as they
finish high school because there is no need for them to go to college! Are these
Republicans out of their minds?
They are pandering to their base, who are not college educated themselves, and like to be hear they are "just as good" as more educated people. Rush, Laura and the other right-wingers are trying to get the blue collar whites in line, even though Republican policies hurt the working class the most.
Education is good for America, and bad for the republican party. Unions are good for America, and bad for the republican party. There is a pattern here. If it helps Americans get ahead financially and intellectually, it is bad for republicans at the polls.
Because an educated electorate is a Democratic electorate...
Because an educated electorate is a Democratic electorate...
They love morons who can't question them or think for themselves. They shove it down their throats.......garbage and ask you don't talk.
This is a big joke right? In a age where a high school education doesn't go real far anymore the republican/tea bag party must be out of there minds. Hey lets dumb down America. Its amazing that just a year or so they were vilifying teachers. Making them look bad with dumba$$ comments. Some guy on faux news said that teachers were just like part time employees. That they only work part of the time. That they are paid to much. Those statements alone says the republican/tea party is out of touch. If anything they should be paid more! With this of type of outlook do we need any more republican/tea bags in Washington? We also don't need them in the state or city level governments.
Just say NO to the republican/tea bag party!!!!
Hi FR troops,
Checking in from the UAW CAP conference in Washington, D.C. Rep. Barney Frank addressed us this morning. Cecille Richards, daughter of fmr. Gov. Ann Richards spoke last night. What a dynamic speaker. The President will address us tomorrow morning, so I gotta make sure can pass thru a Secret Service check. A "surprise" guest will address us Thursday, and an incredible lineup still to come.
Thanks for checking in GOP!
Make sure to take plenty of pic's! ;o)
Self reliance is good for America, but bad for the Democratic Party. Thuggish crooked unions are bad for America, but good for the Democratic Party's coffers. There is a pattern here.
If it helps Americans succeed on their own without becoming dependent on Nanny State handouts, it is bad for Democrats at the polls.
Yeh Bob, self reliance. The unibomber was self reliant, wasn't he? Self reliance really means being gullible as all hell, and how easily you can be indoctrinated by fox news. They figured the image of the self reliant mountain man would appeal to their viewers.
Wow, you guys all got the memo on using the Fox News talking point, eh?
Seems to be on the uptick here this Monday. Seems every good Lib has used it at least once.
Talk about gullible.
Thanks for the report from the ground, GOPisextinct. Can't wait to hear who the surprise speaker is.
@..GOPisextinct...Seems like an exciting conference with all those dynamic speakers! It must be thrilling to be there!
Wish I were there GOP!
Why is the Obama administration against the military and retirees? I guess we don't get a waiver, sad......
"Administration officials told Congress that one goal of the increased fees is to force military retirees to reduce their involvement in Tricare and eventually opt out of the program in favor of alternatives established by the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare."
"The President will address us tomorrow morning, so I gotta make sure can pass thru a Secret Service check"
Hey GOP make sure you guys leave your weed at home, they will make you empty out your pockets at the mag point.
First of all, Congratulations Candice for having your question chosen for an attempt at answering.
(Ps; I predicted it)
Now, on to the story, they didn't cover in any detail did they? On top of that, they minimized it to only a few seats in the senate, There are better reports on the issue....
Control of U.S. Senate Up For Grabs in 2012
Still a democrat slanted take, but covers the entire issue.
Then there is this one a more centric view....
Prediction: Republicans Will Take Control Of U.S. Senate in 2012
And Another....
Balance Of Power: The Upcoming Battle For Senate Control
In my opinion it is a lot bleaker for democrats than our hosts seem to want to illustrate.
I give you all back the floor, please let the bashing begin. ;-0)
Have to disagree on the GOP US Senate chances...what you left out in your report is that many more Dem Senate seats are at risk...The 2012 Senate class includes 23 Democrats and only 10 Republicans.
It is true, as you point out, that Virginia, Nevada, Missouri and Massachusetts (GOP held) are most important.
But the GOP has many other targets to aim at, and can possibly pick off seats in Florida, Michigan, and Minnesota, among others.... in 2010 24 of 37 went GOP...the Obama campaign is running against the "do nothing " Congress, which does include Dem Senators in Red States!
Bob,
They did consider all the seats up this cycle. What they pointed out were the seats most likely to flip – all the other Senators are considered safe / will stay with the same Party/caucus.
Republicans only gained 6 seats in that big year of 2010 out of the 38 seats up that cycle.
Let's look at RCP's map, shall we.
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html#safe_seats
(apologies if this is covered in your video)
They're calling this down to 8 toss-ups...Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Virginia, Wisconsin.
Michigan...the polls are trending towards Stabenow in light of the
brilliantad run by Hoekstra on Super Bowl Sunday.Minnesota...whoever is running appears to have a heavy lift ahead of them against Klobuchar.
Florida...now, yes, there will be a challenge.
Remember...candidates still matter. 2010 taught us this as it was supposed to be a shoo-in for the GOP to take control of the Senate. O'Donnell, Rossi, Angle, Buck, Fiorina...yeah, not so much.
Women are moving to Obama in a new poll
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j0x5rGBeetMbPXDcocYdPO409msg?docId=c9acd7c06db24be59e16ef0d1547b035
Well said Johnson.
To have Reps like we have here in Michigan, Conyers and Dingell with 47 and 57 years of service, is ridiculous.
The problem I see is that the folks who actually do what they campaigned and get elected on immediately are the target of recalls by the opposition.
Regardless of what party they are in.
Oh, dear...I suppose we'll be subjugated with another Constitutional Amendment for Term Limits rant.
Yes...once again, in the nation where "My Representative Is Good But Yours Sucks" lets amend the Constitution so that it can do what I can't...get your representative out of office because he/she is OBVIOUSLY the problem.
johnson10
Both sides will tell lies, and the media dictates which lies they want you to believe is the truth, and which party is the party of lies.
The voters will determine the course of events without your input.
Seems to be a disconnect in your thinking here ...
Come on noid. I said either party.
Do you think it is a good idea for a politician to hold office for 4 or 5 decades?
If in my opinion my representative continues to fight for my best interests and is a better option than anyone running against him/her then yes.
...and who are you to tell me that I am wrong?
Where did I say you were wrong?
Jesus, take the damn chip off your shoulder.
The problem is that after 20,30,40 years politicians are only fighting for one thing.
Their best interests.
Right here...
Um, yeah...right there you said I was wrong.
My shoulder is chip-free. How's yours?
Well noid, I said that AFTER you claimed I told you that you were wrong, but whatever.
It still doesn't say you were wrong, but yeah that chip on your shoulder must be so heavy that you just can't see straight.
Don't know why you seem to be so bitter, but you sure are and certainly not worth bothering with anymore.
So I guess this is where you libs here, as directed by your titular leader on this board, claim victory.
Way to go.
Don't ignore the top of the ballot. If the GOP nominates any of the uninteresting and even repulsive candidates that they've put forward so far for President, getting their voters to the polls on election day may put a lot of GOP seats at risk. The GOP base is already small and shrinking as a result of the Presidential clown show they are putting on. Moving more to the right is not going to attract independent voters, it repulses them. This could be a huge landslide for Obama, and the GOP wars currently going on will only serve to keep GOP voters home on election day.
I think you might be. For starters, you lose points for posting off topic and still resorting to name calling as if it lends credibilty to what you have to say. And you seem to lack the cognitive powers to seperate humor or satire from actual commentary. Also Rush and Laura are not representitives of any party. They are radio entertainers, Why do you let them win like that? As for the actual topic, it is a valid concern no matter who wins the Whitehouse. It will be interesting to see how the checks and balances power shakes out this election.
My hope is that even if the GOP has the full balance of power, they would not do as this president has done and use it to pass programs in the dead of night and without bi partison backing.
As I have said several times, the Republicans should spend more time and money on the Congressional Elections. I believe the Republicans will retain the House, (might loose 5 or 6 seats at most), and they will definitely win control of the Senate. 23 Democrat held seats up for reelection.
Even if Obama wins reelection, which looks likely, he will have to do a complete turn around by moving toward more compromise and to the middle.
Obama will not move towards middle, he is a narrow minded socialist with marxist leanings. He will attempt to govern by executive orders and through his media outlets.
If he could he would suspend elections through a contrived "national crisis". Ther link is to the "trial balloon recently floated by Obama lackey and NC governor.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVT3hJvcTkc
Hate to disagree with you Mark and Domenico, since this is the thing you are so good at.\
In North Dakota, Berg will be challenged most likely by Heidi Heitkamp, who has long been a popular state official. There has been some buyer's remorse with Berg, who seems to have forgotten that North Dakota is an aging population. And, some are unhappy about his already looking for higher office.
I wouldn't write Heitkamp off. She is like everyone's favorite cousin.
Hi New Day,
You may have a point. In states like yours that are bright scarlet rather than red, aging populations may in the long run make states like yours more likely to vote Democratic if the state doesn't find a way to disenfranchise older voters.
Wayne: which we both know is why the Republicans are trying to make it difficult to vote. By asking for a picture id, they are hoping to discourage students and elderly or infirm voters.
posting here again ... women are moving to Obama in a new poll out=
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j0x5rGBeetMbPXDcocYdPO409msg?docId=c9acd7c06db24be59e16ef0d1547b035
New Day,
This is exactly why my mother, who is now unable to drive, has a new photo ID from the state so that she can vote. We don't have these sorts of laws now, but she is ready if they try to put such heinous laws in place.
Well Wayne, good for your mother.
Just think, now she can cash a check, go to the bank or use a credit card, too, if she wants to.
Good for her, Wayne! I hope others are doing the same.
What's the matter WCA, you feel it all slipping away too? By the way, WCA..is the right to write a check or use a credit card guaranteed in the Constitution like the right to vote is?
Are you proud that your party is trying to bring back "poll tax" and try and keep legitimate voters from exercising their right to vote?
Does it bother you in the least that this nation's problem is not voter fraud, but people who don't vote?
Or do you prefer to just speak the party lies?
See NDD, I live in the real world where ID is required in every day life.
Heck, I needed it to buy some Sudafed this weekend. (Gotta a pretty bad cold)
I will never understand why the left is against being able to simply show that they are who they say they are.
It's common sense NDD.
Come on WCA, you know there is one and only one reason for your party to push voter ID laws. It surely has nothing to do with check cashing, and it has nothing to do with voter fraud! republicans have a fixation on scrapping all of the programs out there that aid some of our most vulnerable citizens, the aged. Come on WCA, let's be honest for once!
Good try at obfuscation WCA: question is simple: do you know the difference between a right in the Constitution, versus a convenience for a store?
Sure NDD, I know the difference.
I also know the difference between reality and the world the Left lives in.
Apparently, so does Wayne's mother.
Spell it out, WCA: three things, writing a check at the store, using a credit card, voting.
Which one is Constitutionally protected?
And the last sentence of your 4.11 post? Ironic, considering that it is the fringe right wing, like YOU claiming that voter fraud is a problem, and using that as an excuse to try to disenfranchise legitimate voters.
NDD, when I first turned 18, I applied for and was given a voter registration card. For years, I was required to show it when I voted.
Still have one in my wallet, but no one ever asks for it anymore.
Guess I don't know why.
Actually WCA, she heard about the possibility that she might lose the chance to vote against your party, so she asked me to take her to get a new ID. Don't mess with this, she is from that "greatest generation" you folks are always giving lip service to. She is a veteran. She votes Democratic.
I was fully aware she would vote Democrat when you posted Wayne.
I have great respect for her doing what she needed to do in order to vote.
I have no idea what your "don't mess with this" comment means.
If more people on the left had her common sense this wouldn't be an issue.
Still avoiding the question I see, WCA: I wouldn't answer it either if I had the great misfortune to think like you do. If you do, you make your party look both ridiculous, and anti Constitution.
And Wayne...give your mom my best!
I sure will! Thanks Newday!
Ideology,
Not all women,
The bogus birth control controversy
And also,
Obama mandate’s resistance coalition
Three chamber sweep by republicans? More like wishful thinking. The vote the republicans have already taken on the Ryan bill, to destroy medicare as we know it, has cooked their goose. They may face a bigger blowout then they did in 2006
Good question and thorough response.
While democrats may not retake the House, the beltway wisdom is overlooking some key factors that could and likely will impact the down ballots. The "over-reach" by many republicans at the state level from Scott Walker, John Kasich to Scott in Florida, Snyder in MI, Daniels in IN, Branstad in IA and so on; the rhetoric and legislation passed or nearly passed regarding women's reproductive rights. There is also a great deal of anger at the GOPTPers in the House for the mess they created in 2011, they promised jobs, jobs and jobs yet did nothing to pass jobs legislation; anger for nearly shutting down govt 3 times, for causing the debt ceiling debacle and subsequent credit downgrade; for their unwillingness to raise taxes on the 1% and close corporate welfare loopholes in an effort to reduce the deficit and the debt. Congress's approval rating is 10% and my guess is that much of that is the result of the GOPTP obstructionism and failures to do much. Democrats may not win the House back but I'm guessing they will come darn close. People do not like the far right extremist views and actions. The Senate is also impacted by those same factors at the state levels; it's too close to call but I'm guessing the democrats will retain a slim majority.
Jody, only in the Libs minds here at First Read is the Rick Snyder Over-Reach gospel a talking point. (Not to mention that your entire post is nothing but Obama talking points. Good to see you got the White House memo)
Snyder and the Republican Legislature are responsible for righting the former Titanic known as the SS Granholm.
Their may be other factors at play in Michigan, but Rick Snyders accomplishments will be a plus not a negative to the GOP.
Going by the track record of Jody and WCA, it looks like a sweep by the Democrats this election year.
Track record King?
Please explain and please use specifics.
Missouri will be interesting. Everyone I know who voted for McCaskill last time is saying they will not do so again. Anytime an article is in the Post Dispatch on her re-election efforts about 90% of comments are negative.
Being from Missouri I fully agree, she has ony rubber stamped Obama throughout her short lived career as a Senator, and many here in Missouri are hopeful to be rid of her.
My money is on Jody, her analysis is usually spot on. And I agree with her.
While the Congress has such a low approval rating and most like will lose plenty of seats or at least see them flip, the difference in disapproval there is more than being made up for by the antics of the GOP primaries as they air their dirty laundry for all to see. That should ensure a change too in who keeps their seats.
Democrap accomplishments since 2008.
Squandered $50 BILLION dollars on GMC before they went bankrupt,,,,,,,,,,,,,,it will never be recovered.
Squandered $900 BILLION on a spending spree to "stimulate" the country, most of it vanished into thin air.
Increased the number of federal govt employees by 15%
Entire cabinet is filled with tax cheats, selected tax cheat to run the Federal Reserve.
Apologized to every nation on earth for being American and then promised them hundreds of BILLIONS in aid that we must borrow from China.
Had his Department of Justice traffick illegal weapons into Mexico. Those weapons were used to kill more than 200 people and in thousands of crimes,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,refused to even release documents pretaining to this ongoing criminal act, blames Bush as always.
Signed a massive health care bill he refused to READ.
Submitted one budget in four years. Typical president submits one every year.
Sides with arab terrorists over the US military,,,,,,,,every time.
Wants to raise taxes on everyone with a job,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,to fund the millions on welfare who refuse to get jobs.
Adds 1000 pages of new government regulations EVERY DAY!!!!!!
Solyandra contributes to his campaign and he gives them a $500 million dollar loan,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,they go bankrupt the next month and abscond with government money.
Doubles National DEBT, projects TRILLION DOLLAR national deficits for the next decade!
O= one
B= big
A= a$$
M= mistake
A= America
Okay paidmyfee, it's time for your medication.
paidmyfee - You're long on lists. Now give us a list of Republican accomplishments since 2000!
The teapublican controlled Congress that has done less and has lower ratings than just about any other Congress in history is likely to see changes in favor of the Dems. The Dems may not have accomplished a whole lot more but they are higher rated and did more for the country and our people when they were in charge.
No,
The Senate is definitely going to Republican control. Republicans only need a net win of three seats to just become the majority party in the Senate. I expect many more.
The House will undergo an upheaval as younger, more conservative Republicans edge out the older guard, and solidify the standards set for the Tea Party freshmen of 2010.
As Obama faces a landslide defeat of historical proportions, he will drag down many Democrats simply because they wear the dreaded "D" after their names. This is known as guilt by association. Sorry fellas, you backed the wrong horse, and now you must pay.
Obama shelved in 2012.