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If you're predicting who will win tomorrow's crucial Michigan primary, the trend of this GOP presidential contest -- forget about the polling and campaign body language -- points to an obvious choice.
Mitt Romney.
While the Republican nominating season has been one of the wildest and most unpredictable in memory, there has been a pretty clear pattern since the Iowa caucuses back in early January: Just when it looks like Romney is about pull away with the nomination, he loses.
And just when it appears that his back is against the wall and when he needs a win, he does.
So after his apparent win after Iowa and decisive victory in New Hampshire, it seemed that he was about to wrap up the GOP nomination, and that the general election was about to commence. Indeed, no non-incumbent Republican presidential candidate had won BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire.
But then we discovered he didn't win Iowa after all (Rick Santorum did), and then Newt Gingrich beat him by double digits in South Carolina.
And when it looked like his candidacy was on the ropes -- if Gingrich beat him in Florida -- Romney easily won in Florida. Then he won Nevada, too.
Once again, some pundits proclaimed Romney was on his way to becoming the inevitable nominee. And guess what: He lost the next contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri to Santorum.
Those three races fueled Santorum's momentum, with some polling showing the possibility that Santorum could beat Romney in his old backyard of Michigan, jeopardizing the former Massachusetts governor's chances of winning the GOP nomination.
Yet if Romney wins in Michigan -- as well as Arizona -- tomorrow night, the trend will continue: He'll win after being backed into a corner.
(And then, if the trend continues, perhaps we'll see Romney underperform in next week's Super Tuesday contests.)
There's been another pattern for Romney: His gaffes and unforced errors have often come before -- or just after -- some of his biggest victories. So it was right before his victory in New Hampshire when he uttered the words "I like being able to fire people" (in the context of talking about health insurers).
Then it was after his victory in Florida when he said, "I am not concerned about the very poor."
And if he ends up winning tomorrow in Michigan, his recent comments about his wife owning two Cadillacs and having "some friends who are NASCAR team owners" could very well shape the upcoming Super Tuesday contests next week.
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The only clear 'pattern' I see emerging from the GNOP freak show is a race to the bottom!
There are NO depths to which they will not dive...
Let's face it, when in history has there ever been a more flawed field of candidates?
This election is going to make 1996 look competitive. lol
They don't have any choice but to choose Mitt Romney, he's the only one registered in all 50 States.
Republicans just love having things shoved down their throats.
Obama / Biden 2012
I hate to sound crass AG - but it seems they GNOP as you say love to have things shoved down their throats while they all seem to have some fixation with a women's privates.....seems they can't get their hands off of them......so much for less government....
The other clear pattern I see emerging thus far is every election is fraught with fraud by the election organizers.
Oh, and too funny - M. Bashir commenting on Romney's rendition of "America the Beautiful" losing a "Kentucky Karaoke Kompetition".
The pattern I see emerging is that the GOP keeps trying on one a**hat after another only to keep wishing for something better. Unfortunately for them it doesn't and won't get any better. Sorry better luck next time, not really, you guys just keep sucking you can't help it.
One primary pattern is that some GOP don't appear to like sex very much. ; )
Except in Virginia, where they enjoy 'state rape'.
Ahh, AG,
Mitts isn't the only one registered in all 50 states......
But I understand, he is the one you cant mention.....
(is that because the more you mention him the stronger he gets? or is it because his last debate performance was lights out and you liberals can't have that mentioned in your diatribe, or, was it his saying on national TV that he polls ahead of and beats Obama, the only republican who consistently does?)
Have a nice day...
;-0)
Well, considereing the Daytona 500 was rained out yesterday and may be again today. Using the NASCAR analogy, does this mean tomorrow's primary may rain on Romney's parade?
maybe we'llbe lucky and the rest of the GNOP primaries will be rained out as well.
That isn't rain silly - those are the 'Tears of the GOP (Clowns)' sobbing over their sorry choice of candidates.
Well, at least with the rain delays at Daytona, it is helping our local economy. Next up Bike Week!
Mr. Smiley does know how to eviscerate his opponents. That skill has served him well when his opponent gets within stiletto range. Ruthless self defense will not be enough to unseat an incumbent president.
He has to convince the moderates and independents that the guy driving the bus is about to run it over a cliff and that he is a better navigator. Willard may be good at the first part but his message fizzles on the second objective.
Might be something to this.
From a cynical perspective, you could see it as the establishment pulling out the stops when he needs a win, and then pulling back when he's okay. From a less-cynical perspective, you could see it as Romney and his campaign team pulling out the stops when he needs a win.
Another possibility is that Republicans as a whole can't decide, and when they know their vote in their state might decide the race, they go the other way. If Romney loses Michigan tomorrow, it could be fatal to his nomination hopes. If you were a Michigan Republican and knew that (who doesn't?), and really can't decide which guy you want, you might be less likely to give your vote to Santorum or the others, when you know you're pulling the trigger on the former on-again, off-again frontrunner.
Paul, Michigan is an open primary. Wonder what effect that will have?
I was thinking the same thing, Paul. regarding Romney being rescued by the Republican leadership when it looks like the nomination is slipping away.
Watching Santorum on Meet The Press Sunday, I have a clearer understanding of his political skills. He relishes campaigning in a way Romney doesn't. Santorum is a salesman. I think primary voters, in their infinite wisdom, are responding to Santorum's political skills, even if they don't really buy his rhetoric.
TO: phinephancy-4252115 who wrote:
I heard on the news this weekend that 7% of the folks voting in Michigan Republican Primary are Democrats, apparently to try to have a dog in the Republican fight for the nomination.
I did that once, when Republicans used to have an open primary in California, I voted for John McCain (the lesser of the 2 evils), who was at the time running for the nomination against George W. Bush.
Obama / Biden 2012
Thanks for the info American Girl. Look forward to seeing the data tomorrow night on the effect the open primary had on the outcome in Michigan!
A PATTERN OF DECEIT !!! That is what I see. The CON-JOBS for a VOTE !!!
The DEVILS WORK AT ITS FULLEST!!!
They will turn this NATION to a WASTELAND of the RICH and the POOR. The MIDDLE will be FIGHTING among the two classes !!!
MARK MY WORDS, That is a real PATTERN !!
This is the guy the republinuts want to represent them in nov.??? Why? Is it because he can fire people? Is it because he doesn't care about the very poor? Just what the hell do they see in any of them???? How can anyone with a mind, vote for any of these nut jobs???
From what I know talking to Republican friends who tend to be more moderate, they will likely vote for Romney because the others are so far out in right field, extremists, goof balls that Romney, being the closest to their own beliefs will get their primary votes. Sort of the least extreme of the candidates Romney has had the notion that he must please the extremists if he is to win the nomination. That will actually backfire on him and one of the extremists may just get the GOP nomination giving Obama a cake walk easy win.
Ole Mitt would be doing much better if he wasn't afraid to do interviews on real networks other than FOX.
Mittens, someone named after a Lizard and Sanitarium. The best the Cons can put forth. WOW.
The only pattern I see with Romney's gaffes/tone deafness is that they happen all the time. Doesn't matter whether or not he is up or down in the polls. For example--he was the clear front runner last summer when he said "Corporations are people too, my friend."
The pattern is simpler than that. Whoever is in the lead gets hurt the most by the attention from the media and their opponents and then falls back under the pressure. Whoever then takes the lead sees the same pressure and the cycle repeats. The cause is simple: they are all terrible candidates.
True, except the one who doesn't get any coverage from the media, and he just happens to be the best of the lot! I understand not to you liberals, because he will dismantle most of the big all powerful government you have assembled over the years.
But to many Americans, he is the only real political leader to come along in many years. We will see if the media using fraud and deceit selects our candidates or the people do that's one of the most interesting things in this election cycle.