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Subscribe to RSSAn NBC News poll shows that GOP presidential hopefuls Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are neck-and-neck in Michigan, Romney's birthplace. Romney, meanwhile, has a comfortable lead in Arizona, which has a sizable Mormon population.
Less than a week before Tuesday’s crucial Republican presidential primary in Michigan, a new NBC News/Marist poll shows Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum locked in a statistical tie, while a separate NBC/Marist survey shows Romney comfortably leading in Arizona, which holds its primary the same day.
In Michigan – which has turned into a make-or-break contest for Romney – the former Massachusetts governor gets the support of 37 percent of likely GOP primary voters, including those who are leaning toward a particular candidate.
NBC-Marist poll results: Michigan | Arizona
Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, gets 35 percent, and he’s followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 13 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 8 percent.
NYT: GOP campaigns grow more dependent on 'super PAC' aid
“Michigan is neck and neck,” says pollster Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted both surveys.
But in Arizona, Romney is on safer ground: He receives the support of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters, Santorum gets 27 percent, Gingrich 16 percent and Paul 11 percent.
And looking ahead to November’s general election, President Barack Obama enjoys a double-digit edge over his closest GOP competition in Michigan (a state Republicans are hoping to target), while he’s trailing the leading Republicans in Arizona (which the Obama camp wants to put into play).
Romney vs. Santorum ideological breakdown
In both states, support for Romney and Santorum breaks down along ideological lines, as well as whether voters have already cast their ballots.
In Michigan, Santorum leads Romney among self-identified Tea Party supporters, 48 to 29 percent, and those who describe themselves as “very conservative,” 59 to 20 percent.
Michigan voters: Santorum connects better than Romney
Yet among those who don’t support the Tea Party, Romney is ahead by more than 20 points, 45 to 24 percent.
And among those who have already voted absentee in Michigan – 16 percent of likely GOP voters – Romney leads Santorum, 49 to 26 percent.
NYT: After auto industry bailout, Detroit fallout trails Romney
The same ideological pattern is true in Arizona, although Romney performs much better with the most conservative voters there than in Michigan.
And among those who have voted early or absentee in Arizona – more than half of all likely Republicans voters in the poll – Romney holds a 30-point advantage over Santorum, 52 to 22 percent.
Obama leads in Michigan, trails in Arizona
Turning to the general-election race in November, Obama leads Romney in Michigan by nearly 20 points among registered voters, 51 to 33 percent, with 15 percent undecided.
Against Paul, the president’s lead is 22 points (53 to 31 percent); against Santorum, it’s 26 points (55 to 29 percent); and against Gingrich, it’s 28 points (56 to 28 percent).
What’s more, 51 percent of registered Michigan voters approve of Obama’s job; 63 percent of them believe the auto industry bailout was a good idea (including 61 percent of independents and 42 percent of likely GOP primary voters); and a majority think the president deserves credit for the auto industry’s recovery.
But Arizona is tougher territory for the president, whose approval rating among registered voters in the state is just 38 percent.
NYT: Obama offers to cut corporate tax rate to 28%
In hypothetical match-ups, Obama trails Romney by five points (40 to 45 percent); Santorum by three (42 to 45 percent); Paul by 2 points (41 to 43 percent); yet he leads Gingrich by five (45 to 40 percent).
The NBC/Marist survey of Michigan was conducted Feb. 19-20 of 3,149 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and 715 likely Republican primary voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).
The NBC/Marist survey of Arizona also was conducted Feb. 19-20 of 2,487 registered voters (plus-minus 2.0 percentage points) and 767 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 3.5 percentage points).
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Gingrich is one of the same Washington good old boys that have allowed American jobs to be rapidly outsourced over the past 15-20 years and Romney's a clown who's been downsizing companies here in the US by sending those jobs to other countries. They’re just giving us more the of same old political rhetoric.
Santorum is the only one even talking about bringing manufacturing back to the US.
We need whoever wins to Start Protecting American Jobs and do whatever it takes to bring back the jobs they let go. They've got to give us somebody who will stand up for the American people.
We need to bring manufacturing back to the United States of America and both parties are ignoring tariffs as a way to level the playing field, raise money and bring jobs back home. Let's guess why? - Oh that's right, tariff is a dirty word.
I guess we should keep letting Corp Boards, Wall Street and CEOs promote sending US jobs to countries where they work for slave wages, no benefits, no OSHA safety standards or no real environment regulations. How's that been working for us?
Respectfully, not just Gingrich and not just Republicans. As a Progressive I would love to say that the Democratic party was not at fault here as well. But that would be a false statement. Clinton heavily endorsed and continues to endorse the concept of "Free Trade" and "Global Trade" As has Mr. Obama. That would not be a problem if the playing field was equal. But unfortunately that is not the case. And American companies take advantage of the legislation they helped to write to make enormous profits at the expense of the American worker.
Conservative Democrats and many liberal Democrats backed the policies that have slowly eroded America's manufacturing base. And also did not fight against the conservative mantra of "cutting taxes increases the economy, breaking up unions helps the economy, let the free market work, deregulate everything" and so on.
The reality is that America worked best when a combination of progressives, moderate conservatives and moderate liberals worked together to pass legislation that helped America. Not the special interests that now control Washington and the United States. And unfortunately, those special interests and the money they spend heavily influences BOTH Republicans AND Democrats in Congress.
We need a 3rd party that actually does what's best for all Americans rather than just worrying about their party and winning the next election. Even though I usually vote Republican, I think they put the interests of Wall Street and foreign lobbyists above the interests of the majority of Americans (Middle Class US Citizens). Our so-called leaders (political leaders) are beholden to the same people who are exporting our jobs.
Under Clinton jobs to China, Under Bush I & II influx of illegals or cheap easily abused labor into the US and jobs to Mexico/NAFTA. (I voted for Reagan, Reagan, Bush, Perot, Dole, Bush, Bush and McCain)
Both the Democrats and Republicans have to stop just arguing along party lines and actually get things done that are in the best interests of the United States of America and all US Citizens, including the majority of our citizens.
I can't imagine what a GOP president that caters to the rich and does nothing for the middle class will do to this country when he applies HIS religious convictions to our laws.Rick Santorum will do that if he's elected.I don't care what a president's religion convictions might be.It doesn't give him the right to push his beliefs upon the rest of us.Christian values are fine for christians.But, there is a vast majority of Americans that have good moral values and are not christians.I'm a firm believer that as long as your actions don't affect others,you have the right to do anything you want in this free nation.Rick Santorum will take away several of your rights including abortion rights and gay unions.Some people may have an opinion about these two rights.Even I don't believe that gay unions are normal.However,we all have a right to live with whoever we want to live with.But these are not rights that need to be changed or eliminated.If he's elected it will happen.It's going to be difficult to choose a president this time around.Because I feel Obama isn't getting the job done either.It would be great if this country's decisions were made evenly across the board instead of by one party's candidate that get's elected to president.Wishful thinking huh?
Ron 3631500 it's kind of hard to get the job done when you are dependent on others that don't want the job to get done.
I am an independent and have voted for republicans and democrats. I disagree with some of Obama's ideas but at least he has some. This republican field wants to deregulate (which is what got us in trouble in the first place, If you don't believe it look at Canada's finances and economy), refuse to raise taxes even though they say every day what dire straights we are in, want to continue two disastrous wars and worry about planned parenthood. They are basically running on the fact that they are not Obama. They make G. W. look rational and intelligent and I was not sure that was possible. I'm wondering if these guys can all fit in one of those clown cars to do their touring in. Oh wait Newt will be on a moon colony so he doesn't need a ride.
Seriously, some people forget our history so easily. Just look at the Gilded Age. Regulations are crucial.
I think Democrats are past worrying about the White House too much at this point. They seem to be focusing on taking back the House and increasing the majority in the Senate. It looks like it's the Republicans' turn to take a "shellacking", with 10% Congress approval.
Michigan just remember these words when you vote ," let Detroit die". These words came from your home boy Romney. Take it from this Massachusetts resident, show Mitt the door.
As for the rest of american voters that are in the 99%, remember these words "I am not concerned about poor people". These words comes from a person that wants to represent you. Tell him what you think of him and his policies.
Another liberal desperately trying to get the Republicans to vote for anyone but Romney since they know Romney is the one candidate who can beat Obama. This entire board is filled with liberals promoting the Obama agenda. No doubt you are amongst the mind-numbed robots Obama signed up on his website to attack "the lies" being spread about him. Romney really worries you, doesn't he? Well get used to it because these attempts to interfere in the Republican primary by you liberals will fail and Romney will be the nominee. As Obama promised, he WILL be a one-term President and THAT was one-term too long.
Many who write have lost or never had the power of thought ! Your IQ please.
Most are acting like the AD CAMPAIGNS!!! PURE STUPID NESS and a waste of MONEY.
Money that would be better used to pay their TAXES Than writing it OFF !@#$%
But, of course, you are brilliant and we should all listen to you, right?
Not surprised about Arizona...lived there for 20 years and know there is a significant contingent of Mormons who will vote for Romney. Just like people who just vote the party line whether their candidate has murdered 5 people or not has always baffled me. Same with Mormons...they will vote for Romney simply because he is a member of their church regardless of any dishonest or underhanded dealings he's done over the years.
Romney and Obama. Two peas in a pod. Neither has anything to offer so they spend hundreds of millions running ads that misrepresent their opponents. When voters believe either of the two demagogues, they get what they deserve. And for the record - Satan hates everyone, but especially Christians and Jews. Those who doubt Satan's influence live in a fantasy land.
Guessing that spending millions running ads is a heck of a lot better than flushing billions.
Once again, the media's attempt to promote anyone but Romney, the only candidate who can beat Obama, is sadly transparent. When the numbers were reversed and Santorum had a slight lead, it was not described as a "statistical dead heat," rather, Romney was in big trouble and if he lost Michigan it was over. Now, Romney leading, it is a statistical dead heat. When Romney wins, regardless of the margin, it will be portrayed as a loss because, of course, he should have won his "home" state, a state in which he has never personally run for anything. Santorum, in his last election, running as a two-term incumbent with all of the advantages that carries, got his rear end handed to him by 18 points, in his actual home state! How come the media doesn't want to talk about that? The answer? Romney is the one candidate who can beat the media's candidate, Obama, and they are going to do anything they can to promote whoever the flavor of the month is against Romney. Anyone but Romney is not the Republican mantra, it is the media's mantra. Wake up Republicans because the media is trying to rig this election in favor of their candidate, Obama, because they know he is in big trouble if Romney wins the nomination.
And SPEAK of Religion? These Guys are FUNDAMENTALISTS. Period
It is another way of saying they are FASCIST COMMUNIST. GOD help us ALL !!!
GOOD EXAMPLE: The recent legislation being pushed through that the REPUKEALINS are 100% for in VIRGINIA
About WOMAN'S RIGHTS and their Reproductive rights on how they bear children and soon to have children rights and abortion.
I was appalled at how THEY could DICTATE above and beyond the CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS of any Citizen.
Dictate above and beyond constitutional rights??? Sounds like Obamacare.
Is someone filming this? It would make a terrific sequel to Dumb and Dumber. They could call it Hypocrite and Bigot. It would be a very popular movie among the right wing lunatic fringe. Normal people would, of course, shun it just as they are going to ignore the GOP during the November election.
Amazing what money can do for Romney. Santorum was ahead a few short days ago. Let the onslaught of negative add $$$$$ begin and voila. Neck and Neck. Of course, polls are subject to who is polled, who is conducting the poll, and I fear the left wing media as well as the Republican establishment have a lot to do with the "virtually tied" status. No one wants to vote for the guy he thinks is going to lose even before the voting starts.
Look at Arizona. Hundreds of thousands of "absentee" votes cast already. Before the tide turned and more information became everyday knowledge. Think Mitt may have the edge there depending on how long ago the votes were cast. WE need to get rid of early voting. Not enough information is vetted for anyone to make a decision to be made more than a month before the actual "voting day".
something should be done about absentee and early ballots.its just not right ,voting early its just out of touch as a lot of things happen in a fast campaign such as we have these days.one weeks time before election day should be enough or allow computer voting which could be even less. as is lots and lots of people who vote early will change their view by election day making their vote almost invalid.
Rationalone funny how GOPsupporters talk about how Obama ran up the national debt with all his bailouts and don't attribute any to Bush, but just the other day he was taking credit for the first set. While I can't say I approve of most of Obama's record(I didn't vote for him the first time). I will be voting for him this time, because the current GOP has no interest in getting this country back on track there candidates show that every time they open there mouths.
The only way to save this country is to save the middle class and let it flurish, we pay most of the taxes anyway. The GOP speaks of liberals wanting something for nothing they should look in the mirror. The 99% built this country with hard work, while big business reaps the benefit but doesn't want to pay for it in wages or taxes. All this talk about how 50% country doesn't pay taxes is bs. If you spend every dime that comes in just to make it through the month you payed state, federal, city, sales, franchise fees etc. on every dime that you have made. You take that percentage I bet it beats the 15% of Romney in taxes. Oh yea, I know the ultra rich by things too, but the percentage is what counts. If tax breaks for big businessproduced jobs in this country I would be all for it, but as the Bush tax cuts have proved it doesn't. If it did after 11 yrs of them we should be swimming in job's. Corpartions already get taxes breaks in not paying taxes on every penny they make but only on the "Profit" they show. If they actual brought in $1,000,000 but show expenses of $750,000 they only pay on $250,000 and are most likely going to look for a new tax accountant. If you or I would make the same $1,000,000 with no tax shelters the full $1,000,000 is taxable even if your expenses where $750,000.
Sure you didn't vote for him the first time! Please, you are as liberal as they come and pray at the altar of Obama. What a joke.
And seriously, are you really this stupid? A company sells $1,000,000 worth of product and you think that is $1,000,000 in profit? I sell on Ebay and had sales totaling a rather high amount last year. But then there is the cost of buying the items. The listing fees Ebay charges. The final value fees Ebay charges. The Paypal fees I am charged to get payment through Paypal, which Ebay requires (they own Paypal). Then I have shipping fees. Cost of materials. What does Obama require Paypal to report to the IRS? My gross sales! Paypal does not even bother to subtract the fees I had to pay them from the amount they report to the IRS! You are just like the idiots I encounter on Ebay who think that I must be rich because I am selling the items I have in the first place. You people just don't understand basic economics and that is exactly what Obama is counting on!
Let me guess....you have no idea about taxes.
Very aware of taxes, but you don't pay taxes on your gross! If I sell an item for $500 that I bought for $400 and I paid another $30 in fees to Ebay and Paypal along with $15 in shipping how much actual profit did I make? A liberal will say $500 and I should pay taxes on $500. A person with a brain knows I made $55. The problem is Obama requires Paypal to report the $500, not the $55 in profit I made, which I understand because Paypal has no idea what my costs are. That said, Paypal damn well knows what THEY charged me in fees and doesn't even subtract that! This was done to provide more jobs to tax preparation people, accountants, lawyers, and the other ilk supporting Obama. Only a complete idiot fails to understand I did not make $500 on a $500 sale nor should I have to pay taxes on $500.
And GEEZERMAN McCAIN the crook-er that wanted PALIN the BIRDBRAIN as vice.
Having THEM SPONSOR ROMPNEY is enough to start a circus and a zoo?
That is exactly what we are getting the NOTHINGS.
Last time I looked Palin is sponsoring anyone BUT Romney. If you are going to post at least try and get your facts straight. And YOU were the one demanding IQ's? Just a heads-up. That IQ test you scored a 99 on does not represent 1 point away from a perfect score of 100. In IQ speak it means you are an idiot.
I do not hear anything from the ANTI HEALTH CARE CROWD on what will be done about making it AFFORDABLE TO ALL AMERICANS (forget the RICH and powerful).
NOT ONE SOLUTION HAS BEEN SAID BY THE REPUKEALINS and the LIKES ?????
No need to do or say anything they are all taken care of, EXCEPT THE VAST AMERICANS WHO ARE UNDER WATER !!!!
texasbob...there is no government tit. 10-15 years ago, there was help for people out of work and trying to find a job. Those days are gone. I know, I have lived it. After 2 years of nothing but 6 weeks of temp work I found a job. It was temp, but lasted longer than expected. In my state, which remain unnamed, you must pay 40% of unemployment benefits to get medicaid help for the rest. With 3 kids I couldn't do it.
Work Force Initiatives Act-it took 19 months for funding to get to my state. I was on the list to start as soon as it did. Simple math-add 19 months from day of passage, add 6-12 months to retrain for today's market.
FACT-add those two together and you get about 2 months ago, when things started picking up. COINCIDENCE??? I don't think so.
As far as political parties go, the last couple of years, the Republican's have made themselves out to be out of touch jerks. It is unfortunate. They do not deserve to be on the same planet as those of us hurting. I feel it THEIR turn to be out of a job. NO retirement and no health benefits. They are self serving morons.
Much of the ranting on this thread is simply prattle to hear one's self talk and does nothing to engage civil or rational exchange.
Regardless of party affiliation or political stripe, it is difficult to imagine how the entire country could elect Santorum. His positions are so offensive to such a large segment of the population that he is not electable. His position to ban contraception, to require women who are raped to bear the offspring from such assaults, that women should not be allowed to serve in combat positions in the military are insults to at least 51% of the population. His open dishonesty in making the comparison to Hitler and then openly saying that he was not making such a comparison was an insult to the intelligence of anyone with an IQ above 35. My point here is that if you want to use an extreme example to make a rhetorical point, at least be honest about what you are doing. If you cannot stand by your comment, then how can you expect any voter to trust anything you say.
The problem for the GOP, however, is not Santorum. He cannot be elected as a practical matter. The problem is that no other candidate seems to be able to rise above the low level that Santorum has set for the standard bearer of that party. Gingrich discussing family values is a non-starter even beyond his dismal record as Speaker of the House [beings sanctioned and run out of his position by hios own party]. Ron Paul is the Ralph Nader of the right wing, a rational voice at times but not electable.
Romney is the John Kerry of this election. On paper he should look good. He just doesn't have the charisma of his father and honestly he would have been better of staying a democrat. They forgive more conservative views while the far right does not forgive anything less than their own extreme views.
My guess this will be brokered and they will find someone else to nominate. Daniels and Jeb Bush have said absolutely they will not, I don't know maybe Chris Christie or Paul Ryan.
In what month did Obama clinch the nomination? Let me see, he went to the convention with Hillary still close behind, didn't he? It is almost funny, if it were not so sad, to watch you liberals desperately try to find a scenario, any scenario, by which Obama can win and you know his only chance is if Romney is NOT the Republican nominee, which he will be.
Yes but the parties and delegates are given out differently depending on the party. Actually none of them have a good chance against Obama, Romney has had to cave to the far right too much. Polls don't have him much further ahead against Obama than Santorum. Obama is increasing the gap between them.
If Romney wins Michigan I will say he has a strong chance. Otherwise, it may end up brokered and if you can't win your home state the republicans are already looking for someone else to nominate at the convention. Romney is damaged goods now, he is far preferable to me than any of the others but I do not think he can beat Obama unless the economy completely tanks.
I am an independent that would have voted for Huntsman. There are several things about the GOP that they are going to find problematic. The states that are overstepping their bounds on womens health issues is losing the middle. There is very much an appearance that GOP doesn't care what the middle thinks or wants, while Obama is actively courting the middle.
The whole contraception issue was bound to blow up on them. There just was never public support against Obama on that to begin with, and once Obama worked it out with the church, only the christian right that want to use it politically cared. 99% of women have used contraception and it is used to treat a variety of health issues.
Calling out Obama on his religion? Another issue that was bound to blow up and while Romney has stayed out of it, he may be making a mistake to ignore it. The GOP needs someone like Huntsman that can court the middle realistically. This election process was going to a bad one for the republicans anyway. The tea party has made it virtually impossible to get the nomination and keep the middle. While I think most have known Romney is really not that conservative or an extremist, the fact that he would say anything to get the votes turns some off.
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Predictable posting here.
You have your tea party members protesting loudly by not claiming the wonder of their own new flavor of the month Santorum by insulting Obama-again.
You have your independents saying -We tried to like the GOP candidates but they range from a wooden statue to a raving bible thumping lunatic. It is looking like Obama again.
The democrats-faithfully defending Obama against the rantings of the paranoid far right.
The Ron Paulbots-insert random anger management issue that he is ignored and election is rigged.
Honestly tea party people, if you would stop focusing on hating Obama long enough to put people up that made any sense, you might have had some say in this election. How is this possible a shock to anyone that Santorum is losing his following? He is toxic, with states mandating doctors to rape their patients before doing abortions, and contraceptive hearings where women were denied any say in testimony. He is out there espousing removing all of womens rights. Doing away with all public education in favor of home schooling.
Paulbots-I am sorry your hero is never going to be a president. Liberties and religions rights ends where the next person begins. This is also something the tea party needs to remember. The laws protecting someone from you infringing on their liberties or religion are not going away. While Obama overstepped his bounds, the republicans managed to overstep it with 51% of the population instead of the few pedophile protecting catholic priests. I am damn sick of hearing your religious freedoms being stepped on while you continue this war on women.
YES FOLKS this was was once a COUNTRY of dreams come true.
But now we have DREAMERS (Repukealins + Tea bags) That have and will DREAM on ruining your LIFE if you are not on board in ruining more for all AMERICANS who are AVERAGE PEOPLE trying and working HARD to put food on the table. They have their LOAF OF BREAD if not DBL LOAF OF BREAD. It is beyond their comprehension how a MAJORITY of Americans are living???
A majority? Really? You are telling me that a majority, 51%, of all Americans are suffering under Obama? Wow, I knew Obama was a horrible President, the worst in US history, but I had no idea that he had made life so difficult for 51% of the population. So half of my neighbors, half, are starving? I need to get to work then because I had no idea it was this bad. Thanks for enlightening me with your usual uninformed, hysterical hyperbole.
looks like your head is on straighter than your previous post led me to believe.
The Teapublicans are FUC??d Obama in 2012. most of you Neocons are assinine get with it. Realty the teapublicans only worry about the Big Shots get the message??? You plain folk Americans are doomed by these big shots as they will sink you Bast??ds faster then you can think and when they sink ya no one willbe looking for your turds!!! Capiche!!
Yes, I do understand. You are a foul-mouthed liberal with no thoughts of your own just spewing what the left has told you to say. How long did it take you to sign up on Obama's "truth squad" site?
Sorry I had to laugh Get over yourself! You are using the same language in most posts against liberals and then you criticize them. Hypocritical.
How long have you been listening to Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck?
So you are stalking me? Actually, I listen to Rush Limbaugh 10 minutes per day on my way to take my kids their lunch at school and I have never listened to Glen Beck since he is on at the same time as Michael Savage, who I prefer over Beck. So, is there anything else you would like to be wrong on today?
What I need to hear is a cogent well considered rationale for voting for any Republican candidate. Not reasons why people don't like President Obama, but a real reasoned position. I will understand if a rich 1%er argues that a republican will make his life better by reducing his tax burden and allowing him to become richer still. But other than that I cannot imagine what this will sound like.
Really? Santorum? This guy'll never win.
Who wants bedroom police.
Who wants to institutionalize the rape of women.
Who wants to be pushed around by Christianity.
Not I.
do you have a sound argument for why Obama should have a second term?
djc,
yeah, Obama prevented the the run-a-way Bush train from going over the cliff, got the head Honcho of AL-Quada and has the American economy growing and producing jobs despite all the anchors republicans have thrown out to ensure he fails. Now just imagine how much better it will be once Obama nolonger has to deal with a republican House who is more focused on social engineering and repealing womens rights.
Current day republicans are nothing more than Taliban judge and jury voyeurs who cannot stay out of other people's private lives or bedrooms.
djc - Sound argument why Obama should be re-elected? Yeah Romney, Santorum, Gingrich and Paul
I rest my case!!
Mittens, a vulture capitalist, the King of flip floppers against Sanitarium, a religious zealot. I am amazed that either man is being considered. We are a failed species.