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Subscribe to RSSWith three weeks to go before Super Tuesday, NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the expectations for the Republican candidates and the impact of the states given the change in delegate allocation from 2008.
With three weeks to go before Super Tuesday, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the expectations for the Republican candidates and the impact of the states given the change in delegate allocation from 2008.
Thanks Jody, Iowa for the question!!
Video edited by NBC's Matt Loffman. Transcribed by NBC's Lauren Hollstein.
TRANSCRIPT:
DOMENICO MONTANARO: Welcome to another edition of Inside the Boiler Room. I’m Domenico Montanaro along with Mark Murray. Mark we have a question from Jody from Iowa, long time commenter, who says “How do you see Super Tuesday shaping up for these candidates? Is there a change Santorum can end up winning more than previously expected? How will the states without winner take all impact Romney and others?
MARK MURRAY: That’s a really interesting question. Let’s break it down in a different couple ways. Super Tuesday has about a dozen contests, you know four years ago when we had Super Tuesday it was twenty some odd contests. Now it’s about a dozen and it’s in different parts of the country and you can make the argument that all three candidates, so Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have some states where they can end up getting delegates or even some wins. For Mitt Romney, Massachusetts is actually on, and he should do very well in his home state.
Also Virginia is a Super Tuesday state, Mitt Romney is the only guy on the ballot there, along with Ron Paul. And then you look at all of the southern states, Georgia, Newt Gingrich’s home state is on there, Tennessee, and then there’s Oklahoma where Rick Santorum has been campaigning and hitting a lot of churches which has been an interesting development.
DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yeah, yeah I think Rick Santorum can probably wind up peeling off a couple of states that Newt Gingrich thinks he’s going to do well in. There are eleven or twelve states on Super Tuesday, five of them are traditionally southern states, one of them like you said, is Virginia. Gingrich isn’t even on the ballot even though it’s his home state. The other four, so you only have four southern states, in Oklahoma, like you said, Rick Santorum is getting pretty big crowds. He can do pretty well there and what if Newt Gingrich doesn’t win Georgia? I mean it’s possible.
MARK MURRAY: It’s very possible. And let’s not forget Ohio. In fact, a lot of the reporting that we're getting is that Ohio is going to be the one contest where you’re going to see Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich all compete and maybe the winner of Ohio ends up becoming the winner of Super Tuesday.
DOMENICO MONTANARO: Yeah, I do think though that Super Tuesday will wind up shaking out a little bit because there’s not many delegates at stake to be able to give us a better view going forward over the next couple of months as to where this thing is actually headed, what the lead is and just how we will be able to handicap what’s going to happen by June.
MARK MURRAY: We will and just the last part of Jody’s question had to do with the proportional delegates versus winner takes all. I remember four years ago on Super Tuesday a lot of the states like New York, California were winner take all which really helped John McCain who won them. This time around their proportional so even some of the states where Mitt Romney might not be suited all that well to do, talking about some of the southern states, he’s the one candidate who’s going to be able to do well proportionally in all of the contests on Super Tuesday
DOMENICO MONTANARO: We’ll see. Thank you Jody.
MARK MURRAY: Thanks.
Leave a Comment:
Congratulations, Jody on having your question answered!
And what happens if on a head-to-head basis, Dr. Paul whips Mittens in VA ?
Does the GOP establishment implode or explode ?
After all of the fraud taking place in the GOP caucuses, does anyone really believe the party will allow anyone except Mitt Romney to win the rest of the primaries and caucuses ? Super Tuesday will end with Mitt Romney "winning" with a plurality of 32%-38%, Ron Paul coming in 2nd in 1/2 of the contests (trailing by less than 5%) and Rick Santorum trading with Dr. Paul for 2nd in the other 1/2, although he won't be nearly as close to winning.
Newt Gingrich will likely take GA, and place 4th everywhere else. Newt's ego won't let him drop out if he places second in any of the contests. If he doesn't place 1st or 2nd anywhere, he'll likely be gone. The book tour can only be sustained for so long. Even a drunk gambler knows to fold 'em and go home when your looking at a busted straight to the 8.
Dr. Paul will stay through the convention. He has a fanatical base which makes up 15-20% of the GOP, nearly matching the Tea Party. He may not be in the race to win the nomination, rather to change the dialogue and direction of the party.
Santorum will stay if he wins even one. If he doesn't win, he'll need to have a nut case backer or its time to pack up the little engine that couldn't.
The popcorn is popping.
Congrats Jody!
The GOP really needs to clean up their election practices -- It's all a big joke. Not just the circus and flavor of the month or enthusiasm gap for crappy candidates, but the way the Teapublican Party operates. The straw poll won by Bachmann are votes that are paid for. The caucuses lack control over the process for delegates, so no matter who wins, Ron Paul is finagling more delegates. They can't count votes in caucuses and primaries in an accurate and timely manner.
And the GOP/TP should be running our country and the free world? Seriously?
Jody, Congratulations on being chosen for "In the Boiler Room".
Congrats Jody**
And your Friday News wrap-ups on FR are factual wonders!
Who also responsible for her awesome weekly wrap ups on Fridays!
Congrats Jody!
And, thanks to Mark & Domenico for your thoughts...
heck I could have answered those questions:
1. We will know Wednesday after Super Tuesday, but they all should receive some delegates.
2. Yes
3. All candidates will receive some delegates in the states that are not winner take all.
give us more indepth reporting. we beg you.
like how is Illinois doing on balancing their budget? What will be the next surprise from Obama Care? What is Holder hiding from fast and furious?
Guess the green-eyed monster is at your house, huh, Buck?
FYI, we all have our opinions on how Super Tuesday will go--the idea is to see if Mark and Domenico who work the politics side 24/7 have similar thoughts.
Buck, this is a political blog. For the latest news on any number of subjects, you can go to the MSNBC home page or even FOX if you don't mind a dumbed down version.
Congrats Jody! Great question!
Great Question Jody!
I don't think Dominico or Mark did it justice though, so much more could have been said since they follow politics 24/7 like you said to ol' buck above.
this line does it for me as far as what their opinions are...
In speaking about Virginia, I will give them that they did mention Dr Paul's name,
so I guess they can claim to be fair and balanced, but treated him like he's not even counted.
I'm sure the fix is in at most of the state caucuses and primaries, the history so far proves that, what is interesting in Virginia is what the Party is going to have to do to screw Dr Paul.
But it is sad to see D & M fall to the media slant of marginalizing Dr Paul.
Egilman,
I think the powers that be in the GOP have figured out Dr. Paul's drive for a solid delegate count and are NOT happy.
phine,
I got an email from a friend in Nevada who says the Republican party bosses were shifting mitts supporters around to various precinct rooms to throw the delegate tallies away from Dr Paul.
It's getting real nasty....
My worry, is that they change the rules on him in the middle of the stream, this years convention just might be the republican version of that disaster in Chicago in '68
Surprise. Thank you Mark, Domenico for answering my questions.
Congratulations Jody.
By the way, Obama just released another $3.8 trillion dollar budget ... for the next Boiler Room, a great question would be to ask Mark and Domenico if Obama is the most clueless, detached from reality President in history .... or, do they feel America as we have loved and known it, has any chance of surving another 4 years if Obama should be re-elected .... or do they feel America will ever get out of the worst recession with this guy in charge ....
little bob numbers, thanks. You might try checking what Mitt Romney's tax policy, or Gingrich's or Santorums do to the budget, the deficit and the debt before attacking President Obama's budget. At least he's spending money on things this country has neglected for 30 years. The most clueless folks are those who think the government doesn't need money to run the country, who think that starving government creates a strong country; don't forget how much that "most powerful military in the world" Mitt Romney talks about costs.
Jody, congrats.
And on the Romney Budget:
The Center for American Progress Director for Tax and Budget Policy found that Romney's plan - WOULD BLOW A BIG HOLE IN THE FEDERAL BUDGET.
I wonder how many of those states will see voting shenanigans, that just coincidentally seem to work toward Mitt's benefit, lol.
Paul M.,
Probably all of them, of course more noticeable in the ones where Dr Paul has a strong following.
They really do not seem to care if anyone knows they are doing this, blatant arrogance.
maybe the winner of Ohio ends up becoming the winner of Super Tuesday
huh? This all sounds too much like Inside Baseball stuff for me. I still kinda don't get it.
Oh, well, what do I care, I'm a Democrat!
Amy, in my view, I think they said whoever wins Ohio could win Super Tuesday because Ohio is a swing state, often pivotal in deciding elections. Ohio is a real mix of voter leanings. How the wind blows in Ohio could show a more realistic view of voter thinking for the GOP. The southern states vote conservative so other than picking between Santorum and Gingrich, the results don't matter--Huckabee won them in 2008.
Good question, as always Jody. I do look forward to seeing what Ohio does.
I can't wait for Michigan!
Just imagine if Willard can't even carry it! lol
The way Mittens is playing in the states, you wonder if he will carry Michigan.
You and me both, Feisty! Michigan may prove very embarrassing for Mittens!
I have some suggestions for Mittens: Take your 57K a day and go spend the spring and summer in the Caymans....come back when it's settled. The establishment GOP will be glad to see ya' and they will have wrestled the TeaPeople into shape!
Ah, Texas, poor Texas......thanks to the gerrymandering of Slick Rick, Texas won't be in the March madness!
Great question Jody!
It's confusing to me. Are they adding up the actual delegates that each candidate will get, and Ohio is the tie breaker?
I just went on wikipedia and it's so confusing, with some states proportional and others, winner-take-all. Bound and unbound.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012
Amy: I am relatively certain that the Republicans are just making it up as they go along!
Amy,
Almost everything you could ever want to know about the election in one place,
The Green Papers
Pretty much covers everything down to the House level by precinct and district.
I do believe that it also explains the rules and terms of each party and their nominating process, Best unbiased resource if you are seriously following the election cycle process nationwide...
No kidding, Michigan should be a telling election. I doubt that "let the auto industry die" op ed Willard wrote will garner him much love there.
Amy, no, I don't think it has to do with the number of delegates in Ohio breaking a tie. It is less specific than that--don't think in terms of delegate counts but rather voter sentiment. It's more about what way the political winds are blowing in a state like Ohio which has a real mix of ideology. If Romney wins big, it could be the last blow for the others. If he wins but only marginally, it means Romney's troubles continue, that Gingrich and Santorum have wounded him.
Thanks Jody, always comes down to Ohio, doesn't it?
I am relatively certain that the Republicans are just making it up as they go along! Looks like it!
Egilman, thanks for the link.
Jody,
I think you nailed it here, All if Mitts wins have been marginal or slightly less than he was expected to get, that is why Michigan will be such a bellwether for him, Ohio will seal the deal if he can start gathering steam, but the farther right he turns the more of a liar he becomes, it's gotta be hurting him...
Amy,
My pleasure, (notice how they are explaining that Maine hasn't finished caucusing yet? ;-0)
Who do Liberal Democrats fear the most as Obama's opponent? We all see what goes wrong when a liberal president is matched with a liberal majority in the house and senate. Better leadership is in everyones best interest in 2012.....
The only thing that is worse is to have any branch of government in control of a GOP being dictated to by a Tea Party minority.
You know as well as I do how the system works. As long as the threat of a filibuster is all that is needed to make Congress play dead, neither side will be able to pass anything unless the opposition wants a piece of the glory.
But maybe, just maybe, someone in the Senate will be man enough to make the opposition fulfill that threat of a filibuster. Would love to see that.
Ron Paul.
Mitt is as far, or further, left than Obama. Quit listening to his words, go look at his record. And he falls further behind the more he opens his mouth...and that's from his own party. We'll be much less kind to him.
Gringrich has some decent ideas, and horendous motives behind them. And he's shady, shady, shady.
Santorum wants to take away contraception. I can understand being pro-life, but contraception? No way.
Ron Paul is the only one with a platform that can beat us with independants. He taps into small government, unlike the rest of your 'big 3' who like their government even larger than we Democrats do. HUUUUUGE military...and military IS government :)
Cheers!
/Truth
If there had been a Fillibuster for Obama's whole first term we would be in better shape economically now. Grid lock was the olny hope we had of stopping Obama's transfer of tax payer wealth. Who do liberals believe would have the best chance of defeating Obama? I'm looking for an honest answer guys. Thanks
Tek, I think Romney is similar to Obama but with a little more common sense and business expierence. Maybe he could take enough of Obama's borderline support to win? No doubt Romney won't appeal to hard core liberals and race based voters. Would you say Romney is the candidate Obama fears the most?
What's wrong with Ron Paul, and why does the media ignore him?
There is no question. Romney is head and shoulders above the other candidates in terms of a threat.
thetotas,
Excellent Question!
I doubt if you will get someone to answer it.
Rob, the more Mitts opens his mouth the more he destroys himself, do you honestly think he would be where he is right now without massive party fraud in his favor?
teknishan
Excellent analysis! of course it agrees with my analysis I've mentioned from time to time.
One more point, Dr Paul will also pull some of those blue-dog democrats also, you know the one's that aren't really happy with Obama, the ones most democrats on the vine deny exist..
Well, UAW, the honest truth is that from the candidates including the ones the GOP wishes would enter the race, there's not one that this liberal fears as an opponent for President Obama.
x
Super Tuesday? Why do they call it Super Tuesday?
The name Tuesday derives from the Old English "Tiwesdæg" and literally means "Tiw's Day".[2] Tiw is the Old English form of the Proto-Germanic god *Tîwaz, or Týr in Norse, a god of war and law. What better day than Super Tuesday for Republicans to make laws and wage wars on each other?.[3][4]
Black Tuesday, in the United States, refers to Tuesday, October 29, 1929, part of the great Stock Market Crash of 1929. This year's GOP candidates have mostly crashed and burned.
Shrove Tuesday (also known as Pancake Day) is the day preceding Ash Wednesday, the first day of Lent. This year's GOP candidates have come out flat as a pancake.
The following states have primaries or caucuses on "Super" Tuesday.
AK- Highest suicide rate. How will Super Tuesday make that any better?
GA-Most sickly & most pollution from urban runoff. The GOP should like that.
ID-Boxes of candy given as romantic gifts must weigh more than 50 pounds. Newt, get the forklift...
MA-Most college graduates/worst drivers. No degree needed to drive.
ND-Voted ugliest residents. Also fewest clean energy businesses.
OH-Most autism growth and nerdiest state. Good for Republicans
OK-Per capita most female criminals/least vegetable consumption. Eat your peas!!
TN-Most sewer overflows/highest rate of corruption. Are these related?
VT-highest rate of infertility and brain cancer. Are THESE related?
VA-Most ammonia in water and highest rate of motorcycle deaths.
The GOP Clowns are gearing up for "Super Spewing" Tuesday. The GOP Elephants are still trying to get in line poltically, economically, socially, and culturally. The GOP/RNC Lobbyists are going to have plenty of rotten tea, and Romulian Ale to drink on Gop "Super Spewer" Tuesday. The Circus Tents are being put up, and the "Crazy Conservative" Consession Stands will be serving plenty of Godfather's Pizza. "Crazy Cain" will have no pizza toppings for those making less than a Million Dollars. "Romulian Romney" will run an open bar serving Romulian Ale. "Nutty Newt" will be supervising the cleaning of all the bathrooms. "Sanitarium Santorum" will be at the "Carnival Of Clowns" burning crosses in the nearby field. "Puppet Palin" will show up with "Bitchy Bachmann" for the "Special" pole dancing and bango playing contest. "Mickey Mouse Mitch McConnell" the GOP/RNC "Rat" of TeaBegger Politics will be the mouse riding an elephant around the Big Top. "Crispi Creme Christie" the local manager of Crispi Creme Stores will be there as well. He will be in the Doughnut Eating Competition taking on "Bonehead Boehner." In the parking lot of the GOP Circus. "Crazy Cantor" will be parking the elephants, and brewing up poltically rotten tea from his Gin Still. The Confederate Flags will be flying high, and the Radical Right Wing Religious Rants will be "Super Spewed" randomly. "Lunatic Limbaugh" the "Moron With A Mic" will be doing the play by play of the GOP Circus. He will be still trying to figure out what "Severely" means. What a real joke this GOP/RNC "Clown Caucus" is. Hey! Hey! Ho! Ho! The Party Of NO has got to go!!
Hmmmm .... Super Tuesday festivities or walk the dog. I think I'll walk the dog. It doesn't matter who wins the rat race, they're still a rat.
I have a theory that Rush Limbaugh does not believe any of the bile and hate that comes out of his mouth.He has discovered that the more red meat he throws out, no mater how ridiculous makes him wealthier and wealthier. He is a smart business man willing to fire up the right wing believers. Check out some of his off duty friends, hardly all conservatives. He is laughing all the way to the bank.