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The Mitt Romney campaign is pushing back against a new Washington Post/ABC poll out today, showing President Obama ahead of Romney 51%-45% because of what its pollster sees as a questionnaire design flaw.
"Well, there’s a good reason why," Romney pollster Neil Newhouse writes in a campaign-released memo about why Obama is over 50%. "The poll introduced specific negative information about Governor Romney immediately prior to asking the ballot match-up against President Obama."
Newhouse continues, "So, immediately prior to the President ballot test, this poll introduced information regarding Romney’s background and suggested 'he cut jobs,' 'he benefited from opportunities that are not available to other people,' 'he is not paying his fair share of taxes,' and that his Mormon religion might be a factor not to support himm.' While I certainly understand the difficulty of designing a questionnaire to learn as much information as possible about a campaign, and the compromises that sometimes have to be made, the questionnaire design used by the Post/ABC Poll in this case is seriously flawed."
(Newhouse works for Public Opinion Strategies, the GOP polling firm that also conducts the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll with Hart Research, a Democratic firm.)
Mark Blumenthall of pollster.com tweeted: "Newhouse has a point: Odd choice to ask about candidate negs before vote, but they did ask 2 each about Romney, Gingrich & Obama."
*** UPDATE *** Washington Post pollster Jon Cohen offers this response: "We take question writing and ordering seriously, as both can make differences. We also welcome discussion on these, but note the movement on the horse race numbers under scrutiny is in sync with the trend on answers throughout the poll. The result is also in line with other publicly released polls. That said, we publish our full questionnaires - with exact question wording - for just such scrutiny."
Full memo below:
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NEIL NEWHOUSE
SUBJECT: THE WASHINGTON POST/ABC NEWS POLL
DATE: FEBRUARY 6, 2012
The Washington Post/ABC News just released their most recent national poll regarding the mood of the country and the state of the Presidential campaign. Their headline is “Obama holds edge over Romney in general election matchup, poll finds,” and the writers make the point that the ballot match-up between President Obama and Governor Romney is the first time Obama has ever received more than 50% of the vote among registered voters.
Well, there’s a good reason why. The poll introduced specific negative information about Governor Romney immediately prior to asking the ballot match-up against President Obama.
The specifics:
The ballot test matching Obama and Romney was asked on question 32 of the questionnaire.
Question 28: In his work as a corporate investor, do you think Mitt Romney did more to (create jobs) or more to (cut jobs)?
Question 29: Do you think of Romney’s wealth as more of a (positive because it suggests he has achieved the American dream) or as more of a (negative because it suggests he benefited from opportunities that are not available to most people)?
Question 30: Romney paid about a 14% federal tax rate on income of about 22 million dollars last year. Do you think he is or is not paying his fair share of taxes?
Question 31: For each item I name, please tell me if it is a major reason to (support) that candidate, a major reason to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor?
- Romney’s business experience
- Romney’s Mormon religion
- Gingrich’s performance as Speaker of the House in the early 1990’s.
- Gingrich’s consulting work for companies with an interest in federal policymaking.
- Obama’s handling of the economy.
- Obama’s handling of the threat of terrorism.
So, immediately prior to the President ballot test, this poll introduced information regarding Romney’s background and suggested “he cut jobs,” “he benefited from opportunities that are not available to other people,” “he is not paying his fair share of taxes,” and that his Mormon religion might be a factor not to support him.
While I certainly understand the difficulty of designing a questionnaire to learn as much information as possible about a campaign, and the compromises that sometimes have to be made, the questionnaire design used by the Post/ABC Poll in this case is seriously flawed.
Their Presidential ballot test is pretty clearly tainted by the questions asked immediately prior to the ballot, resulting in what some would call a “pushed” ballot. A pollster can’t ask or suggest specific negatives on a candidate immediately prior to a ballot test and expect to get anything other than a biased result.
The ABC/Washington Post poll is rightly highly regarded for its careful design and the quality of its information. Survey design is complicated, but this is one of those times when a mistake was made and should not be repeated in the future.
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MESSAGE TO GOP CONSERVATIVES
Since Mitt Romney cannot win against Obama either, you might want to consider voting for Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, or Ron Paul. It's better to go down upholding your principles, rather than drowning in a sea of flip flops and hedging by someone that you didn't really want to vote for in the first place.
Hey Mexican corporate puppet, THE TRUTH HURTS DOESN'T IT???
The American People of the United States don't need a so-called & questionable "Businessman" for a leader. The government tried business, it doesn't work! The Postal Service is a perfect example of why the American People of the United States don't want you and don't need you! Go back home to Mexico, they need businesses so the drug cartel doesn't have to support Mexico. Go there, they need you, we don't, trust us! We've had enough of corporate failure! Eight long years and we're still paying for it. We had to bail you out of failure by your own wrong doing! And, now you're trying to blame President Obama for your blantant corporate mistakes! What a farce!!!!
I think you had to bring your own negative information to the poll questions. If you strongly believe in 9 9 9 then 14% is too high. I think Swiss bank account, Cayman Islands account, and running LBO firm is enough to sink Romney. His own personality is enough to prevent him from ever overcoming his rapidly forming public image.
Nancy: You got several things incorrect.
1. Both Bushes had business experience, both dug US in a deeper and deeper hole debt-wise and under Bush 2 more jobs were shipped overseas than ever before. More companies closed US plants and moved overseas. ALL the experts say having business experience is not a plus - the US is not a business.
2. What did President Obama's religion have to do with being president? Yet GOP railed about how President Obama's being Mulsim.
3. Troubled...really? His own peers charged him with alot of ethics violations, removed him as Speaker.
4. It has been proven that Grinich was a lobbyist for companies - he calls it by another name, but lobbyist he was.
5. Do your research - even articles on this site show President Obama has been good for the economy - despite GOP trying to lie about it. Facts are facts - even if GOP doesn't want to accept it.
6. Experts, even GOP experts said President Obama's handling of terrorism was good.
7. Your points are not "your thoughts"...they are parroting Fox, Limbaugh, GOP.
Ah, Ah, Ahhhhh Mr. Clarke, that was then (mid 1800's) now they've had later day revelations and one wife is all you get, must be of age, and they are sworn to stick to it.
Now, I am worried about people who believe in magic underpants. LOL
IMHO - magic underpants are only the tip of the iceberg in this cult. They won't tell you about Kolob, becoming a God unto your own personal planet, multiple levels of heaven, Jesus being born in the good ol' USA, etc. until you are in the fold.
I lived in Salt Lake City from 1966 to 1968, and the day we left that land of nutjobs was one of the happiest days of my life. What a bunch of uptight, white, puritanical whacks.
But Romney's problems come from not what he believes, (we haven't even figured that out yet), but who he IS.....Rich, Mormon, tax avoider. How's he going to change that?
Tough break Mitt! America watched the debates and the audience attending them and realized the Republican party is composed of crazy people not at all like them.
How do you think that poll would have turned out if they changed the survey questions to:
Question 28: Do you think Governor Romney's balancing Massachusetts' budget when he faced a projected shortfall of $600M makes him better qualified to balance the Federal budget than President Obama who has added over $4.5T to the Public Debt in 3 years?
Question 29: Do you think of Romney’s refusal to accept a salary of more than $1 while saving the Olympic Games as more of a positive or as more of a negative?
Question 30: Unemployment has been over 8% under each of the 36 months that President Obama has been in office. Do you believe that President Obama or Governor Romney has a better chance of reducing unemployment to 7%?
The way you set up a poll will drive the result that you want and it is clear what the Washington Post and ABC wanted.
Hey Bill, you should do your own poll. For that matter, what do the republicans' polls show? Come on, I know you want to tell me.
Like I have been saying for months - none of the republican's running can beat Odummer. The convention had better get busy and come up with someone who is electable! Williard is NOT electable. Neither is Newt or Ricky or Ronnie.
I suppose the republicans have the manchurian candidate waiting in the wings? Wait, they are racist against orientals. Sorry, I forgot.
The only time teapublicans approve a poll is if it in their favor....
Since you repubs don't like this poll - how about Rasmussens today that shows Obama 49 -42 over Romney....guess you can't claim Rasmussen is part of the liberal conspiracy, eh?
And explain why - if Obama is the worst president ever, hated by more people then ever - why isn't every GOP candidate ahead by at least 20 points?
Romney's religion matters to evangelicals, it's a big problem
Romney's religion sure does matter to Mormons. Can their solid voting block offset the Evangelical voting kinda block?
It isn't their voting block - it is the Mormon Corporation's assets that will make somewhat of a difference. This is a very well funded cult, and they stick together.
If you don't believe me, look up Mormon Rebellion.
Breaking from Newsmax.com
Romney Rapped for Kosher Meal Cuts
Mitt Romney is under fire for his decision to eliminate an extra $5 a day to provide kosher meals for poor Jewish nursing-home residents. While governor of Massachusetts, Romney vetoed a measure in 2003 that would have allocated $600,000 for kosher meals in a move that some predict will hurt his chances in Florida, the New York Post reported.
Romney had rejected the funding because it would have led to an increased rate for nursing facilities. “I was outraged,” Jeffrey Goldshine, the retired CEO of a company that operated a kosher facility in Massachusetts, told the Post. “For the elderly Jewish residents of a nursing home that have always been kosher — they should be entitled to continue.”
Guess kosher meals for elderly Jews ain't part of the safety net.
This person sees what he wants to see. The poll also suggests that Romney created jobs, his wealth is a positive, etc.
You ask people questions, and they answer. You don't like the results, so don't ask the questions.
I do find it interesting that Massachusetts is likely going for Obama. If Romney was so great, why don't they support him for President?