NBC poll: Newt Gingrich gains ground on Mitt Romney in South Carolina

In the final days leading up to the South Carolina primary, Newt Gingrich attacked Mitt Romney's tax rate revelation. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

 

With two days until South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a 10-point lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the GOP contest in that state.

But a day after Monday night’s Republican debate – where Gingrich’s performance was considered strong and Romney’s uneven – the poll also shows the former speaker gaining considerable ground on the GOP frontrunner.


Overall in the two-day survey – conducted Monday and Tuesday – Romney gets the support of 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, including those who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate.

He’s followed by Gingrich at 24 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 16 percent, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 14 percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 4 percent.

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Yet the numbers are strikingly different before and after the debate on Monday, when Romney stumbled over whether he would release his tax records (he later said he would do so in April). Also in that outing, Gingrich drew cheers – and even a standing ovation from some – in response to a question about whether his rhetoric about food stamps and janitorial work for poor children was racially insensitive.

“The fact is that more people have been put on food stamps by Barack Obama than any president in American history,” Gingrich answered. “I know among the politically correct, you're not supposed to use facts that are uncomfortable.”

Joe Raedle / Getty Images

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney visits Hudson's Smokehouse in Lexington, S.C., on Wednesday.

He later added, “I believe every American of every background has been endowed by their creator with the right to pursue happiness. And if that makes liberals unhappy, I'm going to continue to find ways to help poor people learn how to get a job, learn how to get a better job and learn some day to own the job.”

Another GOP debate takes place on Thursday evening.

What a difference one debate makes
On Monday before the debate, Romney led Gingrich in the poll by 15 points, 37 percent to 22 percent. But on Tuesday, that advantage narrowed to just five points, 31 percent to 26 percent.

“The numbers on Tuesday were very different than the numbers on Monday,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.

And they were especially different among the most conservative segments of the GOP electorate in South Carolina.

On Monday, Gingrich held a five-point lead over Romney among those describing themselves as “very conservative,” 32 percent to 27 percent, with Santorum getting 24 percent.

While on the trail in South Carolina, Mitt Romney said he will release further details about his taxes in April if he secures the Republican presidential nomination. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.

But the next day, Gingrich’s percentage with this group jumped up to 35 percent, Santorum’s declined to 20 percent and Romney’s sunk to 19 percent.

Among Tea Party supporters on Monday, Romney edged Gingrich, 35 percent to 27 percent. But on Tuesday, the numbers flipped – with Gingrich at 34 percent and Romney at 27 percent.

And a similar change occurred among likely South Carolina primary voters who are evangelical Christians. On Monday, Romney led Gingrich here, 36 percent to 22 percent, with Santorum at 18 percent. On Tuesday, it was Gingrich at 27 percent, Romney at 22 percent, and Santorum at 19 percent.

While Gingrich gained ground on Romney the day after the GOP debate, his poll position in South Carolina has declined markedly since December, when he led the former Massachusetts governor in the NBC News/Marist poll, 42 percent to 23 percent.

The Bain dog doesn’t bite – at least for now
Romney also can take comfort with this finding from the poll: His past work at Bain Capital doesn’t seem to bother South Carolina Republicans.

Sixty-one percent of GOP primary voters – as well as 42 percent of all registered voters in the Palmetto State – agree with the statement that investment firms like Bain help the U.S. economy. And they agree that while some companies fail or are restructured, others succeed and that’s how the free market works.

By comparison, just a quarter of likely GOP primary voters – plus a third of all registered voters – agree with the statement that investment firms like Bain hurt the U.S. economy when they take over a company; when they lay off workers and reduce their pay; and when they make money for the firm whether or not the company succeeds.

What’s more, 48 percent of likely Republican primary voters believe the recent political attacks on Romney’s past experience at Bain are unfair, while just 22 percent think they’re fair.

And a plurality of likely GOP primary voters – 23 percent – find Romney to be the Republican presidential candidate who best understands their problems. That’s compared with 22 percent for Gingrich, 18 percent for Paul and 16 percent for Santorum.

Other notable numbers in the poll:

•       39 percent of likely Republican voters in the state believe that the ability to beat President Barack Obama in November is the most important candidate quality, and that’s nearly double the percentage who said that in December’s NBC News/Marist poll of South Carolina;

•       a majority (56 percent) think Romney has the best chance of beating Obama;

•       a plurality (30 percent) say that Romney has been the candidate who has spent the most time talking about the issues, while another plurality (41 percent) say Gingrich has been the one who has spent the most time attacking his opponents;

•       another plurality (36 percent) say they like Paul the least;

•       and Obama’s job-approval rating in South Carolina – among registered voters – is 44 percent.

The NBC News/Marist poll was conducted from Jan. 16-17 among 684 likely GOP primary voters (with a margin of error of plus-minus 3.8 percentage points). The pre-debate sample surveyed 349 likely voters (+/- 5.5), and the post-debate sample had 335 (+/- 5.5.).

Among the 2,146 registered voters, the margin of error is plus-minus 2.1 percentage points.

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Viper

Semper Fi.

U.S.M.C. '66-'70

    Reply#52 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 7:56 AM EST

    cool...my dad was a democrat... also a marine...than an Army Colonel...it amazes me how baggers think the military is all republican...I own a bar across from Ft.Carson Colorado and I see the real faces who fight for America...and they sure the hades aint all lily white

    Thank You for your Service .....

    • 1 vote
    #52.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:07 AM EST

    it amazes me how baggers think the military is all republican.

    Me too. My son in law is a Major -- a military engineer. He's currently on his 2nd deployment to Afghanistan and has been in Iraq twice. He's a Democrat.

    • 1 vote
    #52.2 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:38 AM EST
    Reply

    And if Newt wins South Carolina this means..... because if there is any state in the union that represents a cross section of America it's South Carolina (Romney is your nominee - don't kid yourself)

    • 1 vote
    Reply#53 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 7:58 AM EST

    maybe the economy's better, maybe it's not, maybe we're wrong, maybe we're not, maybe it's a defensive platform, maybe it's not - if he thinks gop is 'attacking' him now, just wait til a candidate is choosen: maybe they'll lynch him, maybe they won't - that is kind of funny...

    still waiting on the zombie apokolypse

      Reply#54 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:00 AM EST

      yOU must admit our canidates are way superior to what the dems had last time, I mean think about it, a lseazy white guy who used his campaign money to cover up his affair while his wife was dying of cancer, he probaly goes to prison, some bimbo blonde who's only qualification was her husband was president and the clueless black guy who never had a real job in his life, Oprah was the only reason he won. Why I cant understand how you libs think our canidates are bad, yours were horrible!!

      • 1 vote
      Reply#55 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:01 AM EST

      nurse called lard butt...puddings ready....

        #55.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:03 AM EST

        yOU must admit our canidates are way superior to what the dems had last time,

        Still on that oxy are you Rush??

        • 2 votes
        #55.2 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:07 AM EST
        Reply

        polls are stupid...in real life here in Colorado...Republican choice ...Ron Paul...if he doesn't get it than they are voting for Obama..(they hate Newt..no matter what the polls say)...so whatever these stations spin (except cnn..they have 4 polls.....all showing romney kicking newts @ss...but Obama beating them all)..its just spin...I talk to hundreds of people a day at the bar...NOT ONE NEWT supporter among them...and this used to be a red state...so my old school GOP mom is right...SHE will never vote for newt...she just wont vote...so dream away people...Romney or Paul is your only chance.....and the only thing newts getting out of this is that fox news is looking real stupid...4 years of "conservative christian" BS down the tubes for supporting this anti-god pasty face fag....hypocrisy at its finest .....well it aint my race so I dont give a puck anymore...whoever wins doesnt stand a chance against Obama...I was flipping thru a magazine at the bar and these two college girls looked at newts pic (had no Idea who he was)...they said GROSS...I said he was running for president and they said "no way"..but they knew who Paul was....so thats the support the GOP has from the youth..slim to none..

        OBAMA 2012!!!!

        • 2 votes
        Reply#56 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:01 AM EST

        yeah but those lib gals go wild when they see my moniker photo, i'm really hot stuff to them

          #56.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:45 AM EST
          Reply

          “The fact is that more people have been put on food stamps by Barack Obama than any president in American history,” Gingrich answered. “I know among the politically correct, you're not supposed to use facts that are uncomfortable.”

          Such as the fact that your party created the worst Recession since the Great Depression? Or like the facts about how you are "going to continue to find ways to help poor people learn how to get a job, learn how to get a better job and learn some day to own the job.” You and the people who cheered you are a disgrace. You have never lifted a finger for anyone other than yourself. You have been the most destructive and negative politician in modern times.

          • 1 vote
          Reply#57 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:02 AM EST

          OBAMA 2012!!!

          • 1 vote
          #57.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:04 AM EST
          Reply

          How can one expect Obama to recover the nation in a single term from the injuries which were caused by the misrule of two terms of W Bush not to mention the two terms of Reagan and one more of the older Bush? And that too after cripling Obama by taking away Democrat majority in the Senate and Congress.

          • 1 vote
          Reply#58 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:04 AM EST

          THINGS WERE GREAT until Obama was elected, in fact most people miss the good ol bush days when people still had jobs and got raises, there was no defeceit and everyone was proud to be an american

            #58.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 9:03 AM EST
            Reply

            Angry fat white guy, money grubbing Mormon, angry radical socialist minority .... some f'''ing choice. Let's elect the libertarian and hope that he does nothing.

              Reply#59 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:05 AM EST

              Let's not and say that we did.

                #59.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:15 AM EST
                Reply

                Gingrich is a @!$%#ing joke. Why anyone would vote for him is beyond me...

                  Reply#60 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:09 AM EST

                  I looked up the following words in the Dictionary:

                  garbage, filth, slime, gunk, scum, sewage, hypocrisy, excrement, dishonesty, dirt, muck, smut, trash, vomit, puke, barf, immorality, debris, manure, pretense, corruption, debauchery and depravity

                  Each one of them had picture of Newt Gingrich included in the definition.

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#61 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:10 AM EST

                  Hey Charlie

                  Did you get your welfare check this month?

                    #61.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:15 AM EST

                    Charlie look up Chesire cat and see if it doesn't pull up Romney's picture.

                    • 1 vote
                    #61.2 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:19 AM EST

                    "Did you get your welfare check this month?"

                    Hey settersperch -- is that the best you can do?? I know 6 year old kids who can come up with better slams. I have a hunch I probably pay more in taxes in any given year than some teatard like you makes. But be sure to do all you can to make Newt the teatard nominee.

                    • 2 votes
                    #61.3 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:43 AM EST

                    settersperch

                    your next scheduled debate will be at the Harriet Meirs Elementary School playground at 3.....bring a little more then you have shown.....those 10 year olds will eat you up!

                      #61.4 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:33 AM EST
                      Reply

                      Hope Newt gets the Nomination. He would grill Obama in a debate. And you know what? i hope he brings up race, because Obama hasnt created just class warfare, he started a race war and the white man is gonna finish it! Coming out on top like always!!

                        Reply#62 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:13 AM EST

                        On top of what - a garbage heap??

                        • 1 vote
                        #62.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:15 AM EST

                        Race war? You people are the ones who started it. What, just because a black man has the balls to stand up to your bullsh*t, you now want to accuse him of starting a race war? Let's see...a white man started the war in Iraq, and a black man finished it...a white man went after Bin Laden, but couldn't get him and it took a black man to finish it...doesn't appear the white man always comes out on top to me. And you're right, I do hope Newt brings up race because it would show the GOP's true colors as the bigots they are.

                        • 1 vote
                        #62.2 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:19 AM EST

                        I believe there are some Americans with good hearts, though misguided, that like Newt Gingrinch. With them most of the rest of us question their intelligence and perception. Then again there are a preponderance of ignorant rednecks like you who's support for Gingrinch makes perfect deplorable sense.

                          #62.3 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:26 AM EST

                          Hope Newt gets the Nomination.

                          Me too Tom. If Newt is nominated, Obama would make the LBJ landslide of 1964 look small.

                            #62.4 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:56 PM EST

                            Tom

                            "He started a race war".....come on now Tom - admit it, even you laughed when you wrote that!

                            btw - if Newt is the GOP nominee - you better hope someone brings up race as you certainly won;'t want Newt defending ethics. morality and family values!

                              #62.5 - Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:36 AM EST

                              @ AJ- Hahahaha, so funny! -_______- No, on top of the United States and ruling with an iron fist! Unlike this hippy we have in office!

                              @ Michael- Yeah Obama just got lucky...And you seem to forget that the Democrat party were the ones who were the founders of the kkk. So go check your facts on that one......

                              @bmcc- yup im an ignorant redneck. Dont care really, Newts gotta be better then the trash we got now.

                              @Charlie- yeah screw you, he would grill Obama and everybody would be so dumbfounded at his intelligence they would vote for him in a second.

                              @b dune- No i didnt laugh, i was pissed when i wrote it actually. And I hope Newt does define ethics and race. Because Obama has made blacks even lazier then they were before as far as im concerned!!

                                #62.6 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 7:36 PM EST
                                Reply

                                Romney's creating jobs story is not going to work. What is he going to do - fire 1 million govt. workers and reduce the income tax rate for the top 5% to 15% of their earnings (like his reported but not yet verified tax rate), reduce corp. tax rate to 20%, throw away healthcare bill that is going to provide healthcare to 40 million currently uninsured, decimate medicare/medicaid and social security leaving seniors high and dry and pray every day that 15 million new jobs be created by some miracle?

                                • 1 vote
                                Reply#63 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:13 AM EST

                                Be honest with yourself - there's not a politician in America who is going to be able to clean up the country's current situation. The country is divided at an unprecedented level. You've got two political ideologies with vastly different value systems. It is frankly ungovernable.

                                I've decided to treat this election year like I treat television psychics - for entertainment purposes only.

                                  Reply#64 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:14 AM EST

                                  Newt is a joke but the social conservatives are desperate.

                                  • 1 vote
                                  Reply#65 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:18 AM EST

                                  This article isn't true at all.

                                    Reply#66 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:20 AM EST

                                    Palin said she would vote for Gingrich, that's all I need to know.

                                    She can divorce Todd and be the Newtsters 4th wife!!! He being such a family values Catholic and all.

                                    • 1 vote
                                    Reply#67 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:20 AM EST

                                    "Sixty-one percent of GOP primary voters – as well as 42 percent of all registered voters in the Palmetto State – agree with the statement that investment firms like Bain help the U.S. economy."

                                    I had no idea there are that many idiots in S. Carolina.

                                    • 1 vote
                                    Reply#68 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:21 AM EST

                                    100% of the white house feels Bain is on the right track!!!!

                                      #68.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:24 AM EST
                                      Reply

                                      Good! If he is nominated all the easier to beat a guy who his own party removed as Speaker of the House and got fined $340,000 for unethical practices!

                                      • 1 vote
                                      Reply#69 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:22 AM EST

                                      More people have been forced to use foodstamps by the do nothing REPUBLICANS in congress than at anytime in OUR history!!!! The teabaggers ran on jobs,jobs, jobs and then obstruct every attempt to help ALL AMERICANS!!!! republican/tea baggers= BAD FOR AMERICA!!! REELECT PRESIDENT OBAMA 2012!!!!

                                      • 1 vote
                                      Reply#70 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:22 AM EST

                                      Personally, I want Newt, Santorum, Perry, and Paul to keep their message going and pressuring Romney some more. Hopefully, their actions will make him spend money and earn the nomination. For every dollar spent against these guys, means less spent against the President.

                                      Obama / Biden 2012

                                      • 2 votes
                                      Reply#71 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:23 AM EST

                                      Nightline."

                                      Marianne Gingrich, the former Speaker's second wife, of 18 years, hasn't been shy about her feelings toward her ex-husband's presidential ambitions, telling Esquire in 2010 that there's "no way."

                                      "He could have been president," she said. "But when you try and change your history too much, and try and recolor it because you don't like the way it was or you want it to be different to prove something new ... you lose touch with who you really are. You lose your way."

                                      "He believes that what he says in public and how he lives don't have to be connected," Gingrich added, in the Esquire interview. "If you believe that, then yeah, you can run for president."

                                      In the Esquire interview, Marianne also dismisses the conversion to Catholicism during his current, and third, marriage. She said it "has no meaning."

                                      It's unclear who leaked the story to Drudge -- perhaps an ABC staffer who didn't want the interview to possibly get held until next week or rival campaign operative hoping to get Gingrich's baggage front-and-center on the influential conservative aggregator. Whoever the source, they got the political tongues wagging just 72 hours before the primary.

                                      Gingrich's two daughters from his first marriage pushed back Wednesday, writing in a letter to the network's leadership that "ABC News or other campaigns may want to talk about the past, just days before an important primary election [but] Newt is going to talk to the people of South Carolina about the future."

                                      • 1 vote
                                      Reply#72 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:25 AM EST

                                      Mitt just too weak. The guy reminds me of Carter. No amswers! To have to think about releasing his taxes is just pathetic. Palin won't support him! Tina Fey might. McCain and Palin last time and My God Romney and who the next! Newt may still take the guy. At least Newt says his opinions immediately. Dosen't make the liberals happy but who cares. Agree with him that Obama should have approved the pipe line! Dam.. Oil and jobs for this country. How stupid! McCain has advised Romney to count the number of houses he owns. Mitt says he owns one and will add a 12 million addition!

                                        Reply#73 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:26 AM EST

                                        I voted for Obama in 2008, and I can't declare that I am keen on voting for him in 2012. However, the GOP hasn't offered any real alternatives. Our country is hurt and sick. A know-nothing religious zealot ( Perry & Santorum) full of hot air and out-dated rhetoric (Gingrich) will only make matters worse! A man like Rhomney can only be pro-corporation and not pro-American. I am a northerner living in South Carolina (and loving it) and I am at least happy to report that people in this state are talking about the issues and not just being suckered in by the candiadtes who coo all Evangilical for them. We want jobs, a future for our children, social security for our elderly and peace! I also hear more and more people mentioning Ron Paul's name! It's 2012, and the Liberals and Conservative are outdated! We can't go back to the Sixties or the Eighties.

                                        • 2 votes
                                        Reply#74 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:27 AM EST

                                        Have you watched the youtube video "Ron Paul was Right (2002)"? I supported Obama in '08 and I can't do it again with a good conscience. He talks a good game, but he has lost my confidence.

                                        • 1 vote
                                        #74.1 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:24 AM EST
                                        Reply

                                        Willard Romney was named after a hotel.

                                          Reply#75 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:28 AM EST

                                          Thanks to republican FILLIBUSTERS on all the JOBS BILLS more AMERICANS have had to turn to FOODSTAMPS to feed their families!!!!

                                          • 1 vote
                                          Reply#76 - Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:28 AM EST
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