First Thoughts: Can anyone stop Romney?

Can anyone stop Romney?... We’ll find out with two debates -- including the NBC/Facebook one -- taking place in the next 24 hours… Breaking down the new NBC/Marist poll… Electability and ideology helping Romney in NH… Paul’s low ceiling and Santorum’s higher one... How Paul is hurting Huntsman… Last night’s campaign developments… And Gingrich hires two former Bachmann staffers in SC.

*** Can anyone stop Romney? With a new round of polls, including our NBC/Marist survey, showing Mitt Romney with a substantial lead in New Hampshire -- and another poll showing him up big in South Carolina -- the question becomes: Can anyone stop Romney? We’ll get an early answer to that question from the two GOP presidential debates we’ll see in the next 24 hours. At 9:00 pm ET tonight, the six remaining Republican candidates square off at an ABC/WMUR debate in Manchester. And then, at 9:00 am ET on Sunday, they’ll participate in the NBC/Meet the Press/Facebook debate moderated by NBC’s David Gregory in Concord. In case anyone has forgotten, the debates -- these next two will be Nos. 14 and 15 of the cycle, respectively -- have mattered. A lot. Indeed, the new NBC/Marist poll shows a combined 45% of likely New Hampshire voters believe the debates have helped decide their vote a “great deal” or a “good amount.” That’s compared with 10% who say the same about the results from the Iowa caucuses, and 20% who say the same about seeing the candidates in person.

*** Electability and ideology helping Romney in NH: The horserace numbers from our new NBC/Marist poll among likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters are Romney 42% (up three points from our last NH poll), Ron Paul 22% (up six), Rick Santorum 13% (up 11), Jon Huntsman (unchanged) and Newt Gingrich (down 15) at 9%, and Perry at 1% (down 1). The survey also shows that electability and the state’s ideological makeup are helping Romney in the Granite State. For instance, 65% of these voters think the former Massachusetts governor has the best chance of beating President Obama in November, and a strong majority prefers an electable nominee to a true conservative. What’s more, Romney performs better among the very conservative voters (beating Santorum among them, 30%-27%), Tea Party supporters (beating Paul 35%-25%), and evangelicals (leading Santorum, 31%-30%) than he did in Iowa. And helping him even more is the fact that there are fewer of these conservative/Tea Party/evangelical voters in New Hampshire than there were in Iowa. “New Hampshire is a very different ballgame than Iowa,” said Marist pollster Lee Miringoff.

*** Paul’s low ceiling and Santorum’s higher one: Can anyone catch Romney in New Hampshire? Well, while Paul sits in second place in our poll, he has a fairly low ceiling: 43% of likely voters find him unacceptable. That’s compared with 25% who say the same about Santorum and 16% who say that about Romney. (The most unacceptable in the poll? Perry’s at 54% and Gingrich is at 44%.) Those numbers suggest that Santorum can increase his poll position in New Hampshire. But can he overtake Paul with just three days to go until the primary?

*** How Paul is hurting Huntsman: That said, the NBC/Marist poll shows that Paul has become a thorn in Huntsman’s side, and it explains why Huntsman’s campaign has gone after the Texas congressman in recent days. Among the 38% of likely New Hampshire primary voters who identify themselves as independents -- the same folks Huntsman is trying to court -- Romney gets 35%, Paul 28%, and Huntsman 13%. And among self-described moderates and liberals, it’s Romney 46%, Paul 22%, and Huntsman 15%. In addition, the poll shows that Santorum has consolidated the “very conservative” vote, as well as evangelical Christians.

*** Last night’s developments: Here are some of the campaign stories from last night: Romney, in New Hampshire, blasted Obama over the economy and said the president doesn’t deserve credit for the improving job/unemployment numbers. “He doesn't deserve it because everything that's been done has hurt this recovery, everything done by this president." (Numbers from the Congressional Budget Office and other independent economics would disagree.)… Yesterday, Newt Gingrich slammed Mitt Romney’s gubernatorial resume (including his health-care law) during a tele-town hall, an indication of how the former House speaker may try to go after the Republican front-runner in the coming days… And Gingrich, stumping in New Hampshire, was forced to answer many questions that have been looming over his campaign (like the $1.6 million he made for Freddie Mac).

*** Gingrich hires two former Bachmann staffers in SC: NBC’s Ali Weinberg reports that the Gingrich campaign has hired two of Michele Bachmann’s South Carolina staffers. Taylor Mason, who was Bachmann’s Lowcountry field coordinator, and Gavin Smith, who was the assistant to Bachmann state chairman Sheri Few, will both serve as Lowcountry and Midlands field directors respectively. “Michele Bachmann had some very good grassroots support here in South Carolina and they built a lot of great relationships with voters here, whether they be traditional republicans or Tea Partiers,” said Gingrich South Carolina director Adam Waldeck. “With Bachmann’s campaign ending, it made sense for them to come to another conservative’s campaign and so we’re happy to have them helping out and looking forward to working with them to win on the 21st.” These additions, Weinberg says, bring Gingrich’s staff to a total of 14.

*** On the trail: It’s a busy day before tonight’s debate: Romney already held a rally in Derry (which NBC’s Garrett Haake says got interrupted by Occupy protesters)… Huntsman stumps in Littleton, North Haverhill, Plymouth, and Manchester… Paul hits Concord and Windham… Santorum holds events in Manchester, Amherst, and Hollis… And Gingrich stumps in Wolfeboro.

Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 3 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 14 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 24 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 28 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 59 days
Countdown to Election Day: 304 days

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Discuss this post

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Only to the delusional religious bigot cults he might be. I'll make a bet with anyone Romney will never be president, EVER. I don't understand why MSNBC would tout him as anything but a joke but hey I've seen dumber things on MSNBC.

  • 3 votes
Reply#28 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:03 PM EST

Because MSNBC has money tied to Mitt Romney, they are working tirelessly to get Romney elected.

    #28.1 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 1:20 PM EST
    Reply

    Title should have been "Can Any Republican Stop Romney" ---- This is a Republican 3 Ring Circus

    MITT ROMNEY STOPS MITT ROMNEY

    • 2 votes
    Reply#29 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:03 PM EST

    Fox News says the economy WILL suck in October and THAT is the end of THAT!!

      Reply#30 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:04 PM EST

      For Fox and all the other rightwing shills, that amounts to nothing more than an effectual fervent prayer. Sorry, Dave ~ it ain't gonna happen.

      • 1 vote
      #30.1 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:32 PM EST

      Fox News also tried to tell us the President of the United States wasn't a citizen

      • 4 votes
      #30.2 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:47 PM EST
      Reply

      "Can anyone stop Romney?" Yes, Obama. The Republicans are throwing in the towel on this one early. I agree that they've already set their sights on 2016.

      • 4 votes
      Reply#31 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:04 PM EST

      Mitt is just to much like Bush, a wanna-be democrat.

      • 2 votes
      Reply#32 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:04 PM EST

      Romney's economic plan is the same trickle down that has failed time & again. Then why doesn't mr grover, the gop, & the rushbo change. Because the bushman did exactly what mr grover & the upper 1% wanted wrt to the economy. The crash helped the upper 1%.

      • 2 votes
      Reply#33 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:04 PM EST

      OSAMA BIN LADEN IS DEAD!!!

      OBAMA 2012/ DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS 2012

      NUFF SAID!!!

      • 3 votes
      Reply#34 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:05 PM EST

      Romney will stop Romney. Elect this idiot and you will lose all your jobs like we did here in MA when Romney was Governor. Romney is also the one that threw mandatory health care down our throats. Elect Romney or any republican and watch the USA fall in the pit again. OBAMA will get my vote.

      • 2 votes
      Reply#35 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:06 PM EST

      so robert you will vote for obama because he threw mandatory healthcare down everyones throat?

        #35.1 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 1:57 PM EST
        Reply

        It's not a question of 'can anyone stop Romney' but can anyone fix the mess BushObama created.

        • 3 votes
        Reply#36 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:08 PM EST

        I am not real pleased with Romney and wish Huntsman would get more coverage, that said I can support either of them in the general election. Obama has proved he is not up to the job, lacks leadership, is very divisive, thinks big government is the answer and allows his ego to get in the way.

        The republicans might be better off to concentrate on taking back the Senate and retaining the house thereby making Obama move to the center, if he ego will permit that, and finally work with congress instead of playing the class warfare game.

        • 2 votes
        Reply#37 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:09 PM EST

        LOL. Do you really believe that Romney has less of an ego than Obama? They are all going to be pretty similar on that front, and if anything Obama is better than most.

        • 3 votes
        #37.1 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:15 PM EST

        ..and President Obama has Michele....she is one tough cookie.

        • 1 vote
        #37.2 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:18 PM EST
        Reply

        Romney flip flops more than any other

        Mormonism should not be a factor but it is

        do an internet search on "romney mexico cult"

        Santorum is the only decent candidate and I am a democrat. Where does the GOP

        get these weird candidates?

        The GOP wants lower gov regulation to create jobs that will be sent overseas as

        in the last 10 years. Dell is 90% in Singapore. Big business prospers using

        cheap foreign labor and that will not stop. Why is no GOP candidate talking about

        getting jobs back from foreign places? Why is nobody talking about getting jobs

        back from foreign places?

        • 3 votes
        Reply#38 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:10 PM EST

        LDS.org

          #38.1 - Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:54 PM EST
          Reply

          I have a job and Romney will get my vote but ive worked all my life and dont expect no President to keep me up.

          • 1 vote
          Reply#39 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:10 PM EST

          The Super packs suggest that the 1% vote Romney. Isn't that American?

          • 1 vote
          Reply#40 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:10 PM EST

          Nobel prize committee shouldhave waited to give Obama Nobel Prize. IF they would have waited, Obama will no be selected

            Reply#41 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:10 PM EST

            RAJ.... Did you ever figure out that Obama was never a Muslim?

            • 1 vote
            #41.1 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:14 PM EST

            Jim:

            Can you deal straight with the subject matter at hand. In this forum I am the one who stands up for Muslim rights and Muslim freedom from imperialiste white men like you, who twist things to their interpretation.

            I never thought he was Muslim. He went to Trinity chruch in Chicago where I live. And if he woudl have been a Muslim that would nor have changed my mind about him one way or other. I still think guy is a swell to go to Ball game with him or watch one on TV or go to McDonalds.

            I hope this makes you happy

              #41.2 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:21 PM EST

              RAJ,,,, You have no credibility ------ NO BIRTHER HAS ANY CREDIBILITY

              None what so ever on any issue! ---- You have dishonored yourselves & you can't get out of it

              • 1 vote
              #41.3 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:28 PM EST

              By the way RAJ,,,, The Trinity Church is the oldest church in America --- It is mostly WHITE

              And yes, you are & always have been one of the worst of the Birthers. Now all of you deny it? ---- You have absolutely No honor at all

              • 2 votes
              #41.4 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:31 PM EST
              Reply

              Mitt the flip flopping Fat Cat outsourcer

              Paul - he ONLY cares about his wallet, hence he hates World Cop. All he's got is screw the Fed and the IRS

              Newt, a Washington insider, fat cat influence peddler political whore, money talks if you want influence, everything else walks

              Santorum . Mr Earmarks and proud of it! and no doubt thinks insider trading by Congress is just swell. LOVES bridges to nowhere

              Huntsman - isn't one Mormom enough? A bit of a kook

              Perry comes across as both a nice guy but dumb as a rock

              What else you got?

              • 5 votes
              Reply#42 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:13 PM EST

              Right. Even as a converted democrat, I would like to see a reasonable alternative with the republicans. This pool seems like a bunch of outliers. Sad.

              • 1 vote
              #42.1 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:15 PM EST

              How about that? ----- 2 Mormons,, a Catholic Zionist ,, a Christian Zionist, whatever the hell Newt is today & Ron who doesn't like Israel ----- Not a Jew among them

              What do conservatives secretly have against Jews?

              • 2 votes
              #42.2 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:19 PM EST

              Jews can still run for Prime Ministership of Israel. Rest of them cannot. Cat keep on chewing its own tail. hey, tail is not food.

                #42.3 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:25 PM EST

                So? That's Israel.... As a conservative yourself..Don't you think Israel has the right to do what they want?

                I'm asking what do conservatives, our conservatives, secretly have against Jews.. They never had one running for office & still don't

                If Jesus is their "Saviour" & their Christian agenda is paramount ,why don't they nominate a Jew?

                • 2 votes
                #42.4 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:35 PM EST
                Reply

                Romney is as phony as a three-dollar bill. Keep telling us about the "private sector," where you gutted company after company to enrich yourself. With an improving economy, Obama wins hands downs.

                • 4 votes
                Reply#43 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:14 PM EST

                Zephyr"

                At leasthe know how to play a game and win.

                I wish Obama was as good. He can win election but cannot fix Government. May be he can be good at Trinity chruch Pastor

                • 1 vote
                #43.1 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:27 PM EST

                Here are the facts, my friend. The economy is clearly improving under Obama's watch. The unemployment rate is now at its lowest level since two weeks after Obama took office. The two cataclycmic events that precipitated the worst recession/depression since before WWII happened under his predecessor's watch, i.e., the housing crash that began in the spring of 2006 followed by the stock market crash in the autumn of 2008. By any objective measure, Obama is in the process of earning a 2nd term.

                • 3 votes
                #43.2 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 1:48 PM EST
                Reply

                Can anybody stop Romney? Of course, Obama can and will or any of the other clowns currently running around trying to outgod each other.

                • 4 votes
                Reply#44 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:17 PM EST

                If Romney doesn't buy the election then the bias right wing Supreme Court will " elect " him like they did that lying warmonger dimwit Bush.

                • 5 votes
                Reply#45 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:20 PM EST

                Romney is a Flip Flopping Mormon Polygamist Mexican Anchor Baby.. So that's what you pubbies have decided to hitch your horse to?

                LoL!

                Ok Pubbies.. go knock em' dead at the polls!

                • 1 vote
                Reply#46 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:23 PM EST

                LDS.org

                  #46.1 - Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:02 PM EST
                  Reply

                  John:

                  Question is can Obama buy one with One Billion dollar that he has bowed to raise. Mitchell is looking for all this to be over and write some books and make real money speaking to end up with couple hundred millions and vacation in France.

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#47 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:23 PM EST

                  Mitt has a lot of practice at being beady eyed bottom line cold and robotic. After all he told a lot of US workers sorry chumps the Asian peasants only want $1 an hour and so your offer of $5 an hour is REFUSED. And he had the chutzpah to tell them with their pink slips that it was for their own good!

                  • 2 votes
                  Reply#48 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:25 PM EST

                  I agree with everyone else, let Romney win ... big deal! Obama will take him a part like a cheap watch.

                  I think the ReThuglicans are starting to realize that passage of the Citizens United law by their ReThuglican Supreme Court Judges has started to work against them, not for them. Toss out the limitation of donations by Corporations and BINGO the entire ReThuglican Party candidates become a feeding frenzy of pirhanas, eating and biting each other to get the biggest portions ... its ALL ABOUT THE MONEY with these corporate owned ReThuglicans. "Make rich people richer (including themselves) and poor people poorer with their control of law & legislation".

                  I'm just wondering, is it possible for Obama and Demorcrats to win by FORFEIT? I'm thinking there may not even be a ReThuglican candidate standing by the end of debates.

                  • 4 votes
                  Reply#49 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:25 PM EST

                  The Bible Belt Baptist voting for a Yankee Mormon??? This I got to see. This is 2012. Maybe the evangelicals will put the anti-christ Mittens in the White House. How many of you bible readers have read the Book of Mormon? Just curious. I'm guessing very few.

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#50 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:26 PM EST

                  The US is still riding the 2 party dictatorship, swapping from one Corporatist regime for another.

                  Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

                    Reply#51 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:26 PM EST

                    My dog wants me to vote for Romney saying riding on the car roof is even more fun than sticking his head out the window.

                    • 1 vote
                    Reply#52 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:27 PM EST

                    Anyone know which Mitt Romney we are talking about today?

                    Is this the same Mitt Romney who said, "The Corporation is the People"?

                    • 2 votes
                    #52.1 - Sat Jan 7, 2012 12:42 PM EST

                    duh?

                      #52.2 - Sun Jan 8, 2012 6:27 AM EST
                      Reply
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