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One reason often cited for the importance of the early nominating states is momentum. Taken collectively the early states do exactly that -- after all, most candidates drop out before even close to a majority of delegates is awarded.
A top-three finish in Iowa is often described as a “ticket” out of Iowa. But what impact does win, place, or show in Iowa have for that same candidate in New Hampshire? Turns out, not much.
NBC's Domenico Montanaro breaks down how the caucus process works, why no delegates are awarded, and the mistake some candidates make in not campaigning in early states.
Using the last New Hampshire polls taken before the Iowa caucuses in the GOP primaries in 1988, 1996, 2000, and 2008, the average bump for the winner of Iowa to New Hampshire was just three points; for second place -- four points; and third -- also three.
There are a variety of reasons for this. Often the two races occur parallel to each other, rather than contingent upon each other. In other words, many candidates have focused more heavily on one state or another.
And there are expectations. Imagine someone finishes second in Iowa, but was expected to win -- Mitt Romney in 2008, for example. He didn’t meet expectations, so he wouldn’t be expected to get a bounce -- despite his “silver medal,” as he described it four years ago
That's not to say Iowa hasn’t helped (or hurt, for that matter). And for some by quite a lot. The biggest Iowa to New Hampshire bounces all occurred in 1996 -- another election, by the way, in which a Republican front runner was running for the second time and ultimately against a Democratic incumbent president.
That year, Sen. Lamar Alexander jumped 14 points from the final Boston Globe New Hampshire poll conducted before Iowa to the actual New Hampshire results two weeks or so later. There had been concerns in the Granite State that Alexander wasn't viable. He pulled in just 9% in that Globe poll, but after his third-place showing in Iowa, he finished a close third in New Hampshire with 23%, just four points behind the winner, Pat Buchanan.
That brings us to the second-largest bounce -- Buchanan. He finished second in Iowa, and gained 12 points to win New Hampshire.
The largest drop belongs to Steve Forbes, who nosedived 14 points in New Hampshire after finishing fourth in Iowa.
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I just saw victims of Romney's job killing agenda on TV ..warning the American people ..he is about the profit and could give a rats butt about the workers he had fired ...when Bain Capital took over and killed jobs !
------------------------- A VOTE FOR ROMNEY IS A VOTE THE Failed GEORGE BUSH POLICY'S !
I don't need to hear from the employees his corporation laid off to know Romney is not on the side of people who work for a living - I could deduce it from Romney's own comment to the retired firefighter who complained about getting a reduced benefit from the social security system he paid into, because he had a public worker's pension "if you are looking for free stuff, go vote for the other guy."
http://www.chron.com/news/article/Romney-tries-to-come-across-as-a-man-of-the-people-2432421.php
Are you saying those ridiculous union demands had nothing to do with another plant closing?
I wonder if the firefighter had paid into social security his entire working career, and met the 40 quarters required by SSN, if not, why should he get social security?
So Romney saves companies by making sound business decisions and reducing the workforce. What a bad man.
Still beating this drum, eh Say?
Didn't get a bad enough smackdown with the identical comment yesterday?
Obama=Bush Lite
janet
I know Maine teachers aren't allowed to draw Social Security, even if they paid into it from another job, because they get a public workers' pension, that averages $19,000 a year. It's considered "double dipping," to get both pensions, for public workers, even though the pensions of private industry employees don't impact their Social Security benefits.
The effect Iowa has on New Hampshire is that NH decides to pick someone else to keep the candidates in a state of hopeful flux and lengthen it. Makes sense to me.
Or could simply be Iowans and New Hampshirites have different concerns, and vote accordingly.
As the presidential election of '08 proves. We don't always get it right in Iowa. But I am encouraged by the number of educated young people who learned from their 1st time experience of voting and are taking a more informed approach to it in 2012....
mainstream media sucks my ass!!!!!!! you suck msnbc!!! not quite as bad as fox but you still suck big ones with them others in bohemian grove. ;)
who cares about these puppets?!? there just like obama is/was/has been catch my drift nbc??? why arent you putting nething up about obama's punk azz signing the ndaa bill on the night before the 1st???????? wake up america mainstream news isn't telling you the REAL DEEP stuff going on. www.infowars.com don't beleive me peeps???!!! then were gonna lose to the "elites".....smh
ron paul 2012!!!!!
Keep it classy, dude.
WHY Ron Paul can't and wont Win
The GOP is counting the votes in a Secret Undisclosed Location
umm hmm
Every time I hear a Republican tell me that the government "Doesn't create jobs--only the private sector creates jobs," I think about my childhood near Jacksonville, NC. I guess all of those Marines were working for free.....
And then I get the Republicans screaming at the top of their lungs that we need to "SUPPORT THE TROOPS!!!" and then the Republicans in the electorate vote for an idiot who wants to keep them in a war for as long as possible, and a supporting cast of idiots who make damn sure that no matter what happens, the wars continue.
Yeah, I'm a Democrat. I voted for Obama, not because he was perfect, but because the Republicans nominated John McCain, who is just one flashback away from pissing his pants at any given moment.
Republicans are against regulation. Regulation is there to keep people from screwing other people--that is the entire point of having government regulation. If there is no regulation, then you get natural gas in your hot water heater from fracking, you get lead painted toys from China, and you eat contaminated food--all because people are out to make a buck and screw the American public.
No one in this Republican race cares about America, or Americans. They care about who pays for their jets, they care about which television show hires them when they drop out of the race, they care about someone picking up their bills because it costs 18 million shiny silver dollars to buy ad space in Iowa, or a little over 5 bucks a head.
It doesn't really matter who wins, unless somehow your paycheck is tied to analysis of who wins. The sad fact is that when America asked the GOP to find someone to stand for them, this is the group that stood up. Thanks, GOP. For nothing.
This article demonstrates that the author knows where to access obscure statistics to disclose nothing significant. He forgot to mention that the two states are in different time zones as well.
Affinity, he made ya look...